Members Daily Post: 12/08/17 (complete)

Section 1 + test zone micros + notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Ascot 

None.

Newmarket (July)

None.

Lingfield

None.

 

Redcar 

2.40 – Muscika (micro going) H3 

3.15 –

Fieldsman (micro going) 10/1 2nd 12/1

Hajjam (micro going) H1 I3 G3 9/2 WON 9/2>3/1 

3.50 –

Town Charter (all hncps + 3yo+) ES 15/2 UP

Rashfords Double (micro dist) G1 9/1 2nd 

4.25 –

Royal Reserve (micro going) H3 I1 G3 

Spirit of Hayton (micro class) 18/1 UP 7/1

 

Haydock

1.55 –

Azari (all hncps) G1 12/1 WON 12/1 

Capanova (all hncps + micro runs) ES I3 20/1 UP

Dance King (micro TJC) H3 G3 7/1 UP

Intense Tango (micro going IF GOOD) 14 I1 

3.00-

Calder Prince (all hncps + miro TJC) I3 9/2 2nd 

Just Hiss (micro TJC+ micro dist) ES G3 6/1 UP

Little Lady Katie (micro going IF GOOD) 14

4.05 – Sidewinder (BONUS) ES H3 I3 G3 6/1

4.35 –

Lathom (micro TJC) 11/2 UP

Monks Sands (micro TJC) 40/1 UP

5.05 – Hamish Mc Gonagain (micro TJC) G3  7/2 3rd

 

Ayr

5.50 – Danny Mc D (4yo+) 20/1 UP

6.50 – Racquet  (micro distance) (late addition) H3 11/2 WON 9/2

7.50 – Archipeligo (micro class) H1 I3 G3 9/2 UP

8.20 – Royal Dutchess (3yo+) ES H3 I3 G1 11/4 UP

8.50 –

Golden Jeffrey (4yo+) H3 7/4 UP

La Bacouetteuse (4yo+) H3 I1 10/1  UP

 

**

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (NEW!)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

**

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/59,21p, -10.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/120, +15.6)

No ‘tips’, (or lays! 🙂 ) nothing leaping out at me and those that look interesting are in races with multiple quals/a few strategy quals etc.. which always spells danger. But a few of my own thoughts of what looked most interesting to me and where I may have more confidence than some, in context of prices etc etc..

Just Hiss and Archipeligo probably look most interesting of any main strategy quals to my eyes, inc treble rated (which I will add to advised strategies link above…given stats/substance case could be made that treble rated and ES could be the two main ‘foundation’ systems, for want of a better phrase). Just Hiss is in decent enough form and the drop back in trip should see him in a better light. I also though he may attempt to make all here. He has also been running in class 2s the last twice, and when last seen in a C3 three starts ago won with a bit in hand. Archipeligo…well he may prefer the AW but this is his first run over 10f on turf since August 2015. And that run at Hamilton over 9f suggested this is his trip. With this decent jockey’s 7lb claim (rides as well as any 3lb claimers I think…many singing his praises) i’d expect him to run well here. Jardine is 27/99,51 places, +17 with last time out winners in the last 2 years, which boosted some confidence.

We shall see if that confidence is misplaced or not.. that doesn’t mean I don’t like any other strategy qualifiers, but you know I like to take a view on staking amount and those two jumped out at me. Clearly they will tail in last and Hajjam/Town Charter/Caponova/Sidewinder will all hack up, and probably some others!

I don’t like second guessing Dascombe runners at Haydock… Capanova does run over this distance for the first time ever, so is at least doing something different. You’d have to have wellbeing/form/stamina doubts but is ES and is 20s and I’ll be having a nibble. Just in case.

Azari… hmmm… he is unexposed on these shores but had raced plenty in Italy, and ran well enough on soft/good to soft. 0/3,2p in handicaps here… he drops in class,runs with some cut (chance GF hasn’t been ideal) and CP come on. And you can make some sort of case for Dance King.. tricky race… but one where I’m not sure I’d be comfortable backing one and not the other two! At the prices you could make some sort of case for all, or why you may roll dice.

Lathom.. I’ve had my eye on him since noticing his tumbling mark, and an ok run at Ayr a few starts back . He dropped to C4 at Haydock and missed the break/slow away, game over. He ran ok the last day. Blinkers come on. There is little evidence he stays 6f but he hasn’t had many goes. Omeara could be about to fire, possibly. Threatens to become a cliff horse before long. if he i 6s/7s I may not be able to resist a go… but then when he clearly fails to get home and is dropped to 5f NTO I may have to go in again! 🙂

Finally.. I’ll mention Spirit of Hayton… the market may guide here… up in trip on his second run in a handicap… ground is an unknown and I would have wanted to see more LTO albeit that was after a break also. Trainer is 6/32,11p,+18 with horses second run in a handicap. On paper there isn’t much stamina in the immediately family. A bit on the fence, with form/ground/stamina. But he is unexposed and is 25s. I’ll see if he is nibbled at. You wouldn’t fall of your seat if he ran ok, or tailed in last. My head says the latter but you never know.

So, an interesting mix today. A few system/strategy quals, a few who look more interesting than others to my eyes, and plenty that turn up here in form. With any luck a winner or two dotted around and however you play them hopefully you come out ahead for the day.

GL.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

CD Jockeys

15:00 Hayd – Fingals Cave (any) UP

16:05 Hayd – Fire Brigade – (any) WON Evens

14:50 Ascot – Basil Berry (any)  UP (Spencer 8f Ascot!! Prob done his winning for a while,but fingers crossed…) *

A win (5/1, 35p R4, 3/1 or so) and two seconds yesterday took these to…

18 bets / 6 wins / 12 wins|places / +23 early|bog  I think. Ticking along ok. 

 

Irish Angles

8.00 Kilb – Archive / Tisamystery (both any odds)

7.30 Kilb – Just Cause (any odds, 12/1< best)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

none.

**

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    Hope your birthday bash is gearing up nicely. I’ll raise a couple of sherberts to your good health later.

    One to add though not going to change the landscape

    A 6.50 Racquet (micro dist)

    Mike

    1. Ha, yep all set pretty much thanks. I’ll prepare by watching the Reds on the box and hope the rain stays away. They all bring their own drink and they’re a well behaved bunch. Thanks for that… looked at him, with eyes focused on the seasons runs! Oblivious to distance. Head’s been clear for a while as well! 🙂

  2. I’ve always find Saturdays crazily busy and tend to take a back seat, I never see the wood for the trees.

    A cheeky trixie using two the of horses listed above sets me up for next week and return if NH…. bring on the jumps ;-/

  3. Fahey/Hamilton/Redcar micro at 5, 7 & 8f since 2014 – 17/45, 25P +58 pts. Qualifiers today:

    3:15. Right Action 6/1
    3:50. Rashfords Double 9/1

    Chris R

    1. Thanks Chris. What’s the exact system since just imputing the above gives 31/140, 64p +62 on HRB so same profit but 3 times the qualifiers?

      1. Hi Nick
        Very strange as just checked in my HRB and exactly as in my original post gives the 17/45?? No additional criteria.

        Chris R.

        1. Ah just spotted what happened. You meant with at Recar with Tony Hamilton on board not at Redcar or Hamilton tracks.

  4. we have three running that got a mention in hugh fowlers 2yo post all running in the 3.40 sandown
    tajaanus
    ertiyad
    mamba noire
    migh have a little e/w on the first one.

    1. It really does pay to stick them in a tracker. Thank you hugh for spotting them and Josh for posting the article. My West Midlands safari park tickets paid for. Job done…. ☺

      1. Good stuff Warren, using the info buried around on this blog somewhere to great effect! That;s what it’s all about and if the winnings pay for a day out somewhere even better! Well done.

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