Members Daily Post: 12/08/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/59,21p, -10.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/120, +15.6)

No ‘tips’, (or lays! 🙂 ) nothing leaping out at me and those that look interesting are in races with multiple quals/a few strategy quals etc.. which always spells danger. But a few of my own thoughts of what looked most interesting to me and where I may have more confidence than some, in context of prices etc etc..

Just Hiss and Archipeligo probably look most interesting of any main strategy quals to my eyes, inc treble rated (which I will add to advised strategies link above…given stats/substance case could be made that treble rated and ES could be the two main ‘foundation’ systems, for want of a better phrase). Just Hiss is in decent enough form and the drop back in trip should see him in a better light. I also though he may attempt to make all here. He has also been running in class 2s the last twice, and when last seen in a C3 three starts ago won with a bit in hand. Archipeligo…well he may prefer the AW but this is his first run over 10f on turf since August 2015. And that run at Hamilton over 9f suggested this is his trip. With this decent jockey’s 7lb claim (rides as well as any 3lb claimers I think…many singing his praises) i’d expect him to run well here. Jardine is 27/99,51 places, +17 with last time out winners in the last 2 years, which boosted some confidence.

We shall see if that confidence is misplaced or not.. that doesn’t mean I don’t like any other strategy qualifiers, but you know I like to take a view on staking amount and those two jumped out at me. Clearly they will tail in last and Hajjam/Town Charter/Caponova/Sidewinder will all hack up, and probably some others!

I don’t like second guessing Dascombe runners at Haydock… Capanova does run over this distance for the first time ever, so is at least doing something different. You’d have to have wellbeing/form/stamina doubts but is ES and is 20s and I’ll be having a nibble. Just in case.

Azari… hmmm… he is unexposed on these shores but had raced plenty in Italy, and ran well enough on soft/good to soft. 0/3,2p in handicaps here… he drops in class,runs with some cut (chance GF hasn’t been ideal) and CP come on. And you can make some sort of case for Dance King.. tricky race… but one where I’m not sure I’d be comfortable backing one and not the other two! At the prices you could make some sort of case for all, or why you may roll dice.

Lathom.. I’ve had my eye on him since noticing his tumbling mark, and an ok run at Ayr a few starts back . He dropped to C4 at Haydock and missed the break/slow away, game over. He ran ok the last day. Blinkers come on. There is little evidence he stays 6f but he hasn’t had many goes. Omeara could be about to fire, possibly. Threatens to become a cliff horse before long. if he i 6s/7s I may not be able to resist a go… but then when he clearly fails to get home and is dropped to 5f NTO I may have to go in again! 🙂

Finally.. I’ll mention Spirit of Hayton… the market may guide here… up in trip on his second run in a handicap… ground is an unknown and I would have wanted to see more LTO albeit that was after a break also. Trainer is 6/32,11p,+18 with horses second run in a handicap. On paper there isn’t much stamina in the immediately family. A bit on the fence, with form/ground/stamina. But he is unexposed and is 25s. I’ll see if he is nibbled at. You wouldn’t fall of your seat if he ran ok, or tailed in last. My head says the latter but you never know.

So, an interesting mix today. A few system/strategy quals, a few who look more interesting than others to my eyes, and plenty that turn up here in form. With any luck a winner or two dotted around and however you play them hopefully you come out ahead for the day.

GL.

3.Micro System Test Zone

CD Jockeys

15:00 Hayd – Fingals Cave (any) UP

16:05 Hayd – Fire Brigade – (any) WON Evens

14:50 Ascot – Basil Berry (any)  UP (Spencer 8f Ascot!! Prob done his winning for a while,but fingers crossed…) *

A win (5/1, 35p R4, 3/1 or so) and two seconds yesterday took these to…

18 bets / 6 wins / 12 wins|places / +23 early|bog  I think. Ticking along ok. 

Irish Angles

8.00 Kilb – Archive / Tisamystery (both any odds)

7.30 Kilb – Just Cause (any odds, 12/1< best)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

none.

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