Well well. What a day! Winners everywhere again, the personal highlight being the Galway Plate- not because of how much I won necessarily but I take great satisfaction from getting big handicap chases correct. The puzzle was solved. Only 7/1, but I’ll take that every day of the week! +8.5 points on the race.
Elsewhere.. Goodwood was fun… the video highlighted winners at 10/1 and 80/1 (or 66s) – 30p Rule 4 but Here Comes When looked worth an EW bet if turning heavy. There were various winners in the Members Post as I write at 25/1, 7/2, 5/4… Johnston’s Goodwood winner highlighted on the micro stats, and a couple at Galway.
Another good day. It has been a bit mad since the Bunbury Cup. We shall see how long we can keep it going. No idea what, if anything, will be covered on Thursday, feels like a long week already!
Plenty of winners posted in comments also, superb effort as always.
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
1.30 Strat- Sage Monkey
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live test
3.45 Strat- Moorlands jack (9/1<)
1.30 Strat – Sage Monkey (12/1<)
Flat 2017: 60 Day Trainers
3.35 Good – So Mi Dar (any)
Soft/Heavy Ground Winners>>> The following list simply highlights those horses with winning form on soft or heavy. A starting point. This game is never that simple (albeit that approach worked ok yesterday) so we shall see…
1.50 – Good Omen – WON 8/1
3.00- Green Power / Nebo
3.35 – Shutter Speed / So Mi Dar
4.10 – Poetic Steps / Jedi Master
5.20 Megan Lilly
Nothing from Galway. I have some stats/trends/shortlist for the Galway Hurdle but they will be Members’ Only this time, as will most handicap hurdle stats/shortlists when main winter season gets going proper- more as a bit of a test, but found a few decent winners when dabbling last year. These big race shortlists are due some losers though, having found 8 winners in a row.
Stratford: Through The Card Video…
Tony, a member, is off to the races and asked me to have a look through which I was happy to do. It is mediocre fare and I’d probably only back most of these if I were at the track! Lots of C5 dross and inconsistent beasts, and plenty of well fancied ones…
Oh, and the first 10 minutes is spent responding to one of the more bizarre emails I have received… you can skip that if you wish, or you may find it of interest, you can’t please all the people all the time…
Guest Race Preview/Tips: Speculate 2 Accumulate
1.50 5 Good Omen @ 8/1 WON / 13 Morning Suit UP@ 33/1 (All Bookies odds to 4th / SkyBet to 6th)
5.20 5 Megan Lily @ 10/1 / 6 Poets Society @ 10/1 (All Bookies Odds to 3rd / SkyBet to 4th)
(1/2 point each way each horse)
We managed to find another gallant placed horse yesterday with Arthur McBride; who ran prominently throughout a gallant third, if you took the early price a nice return. The winner Cool Sky was one I had looked at very closely; the concern for me was the trip, as he had not run beyond 2 miles on the Flat before. A bit concerning therefore to hear some references post race to his “proven stamina”; it does ring alarm bells when I fear I have missed something; but the post race comments of Trainer Ian Williams, that he considered taking the horse out of the race due to the
Going and trip, somewhat eased those concerns. You can’t win them all and the “places” are mounting up, but we are overdue a win, after an excellent Royal Ascot, so will be looking for the Winners Enclosure today.
The deluge yesterday will mean everyone is looking (understandably) for “heavy/soft” ground form today, that isentirely logical but poses two serious questions (a) will heavy ground horses be “over-backed” and no value and (b) do we really know that those with little/no soft ground form, will go in it, until they try?. I won’t bore you with dosage and pedigree, but a look back a generation at dams and sires is usually a good guide, as are to look at those Trainers; whose DNA is not to risk horses, on ground they consider unsuitable – more of that in a moment.
I have changed tack slightly today, I think you have to be adaptable and flexible and adapt to conditions, so having decided there was no point studying form last night, until we had some ideas of actual Going and non runners; an early start on the form this morning and an “open mind” – the brain does retain a lot of information and sometimes you need to refresh it, get rid of preconceptions and misconceptions and look afresh!
So, with a slightly lesser explanation of every runner, here are the tips and logic for a more concise set today.
1.50 is 1 mile 2 furlongs and straight away I’m looking for soft/heavy form, form at the trip and over a bit further as clearly stamina will be an issue. I also make 2 adaptions when conditions are like this (a) look down a class on previous runs, mud is a great leveler (never more aptly seen with Ribchester yesterday) a mudlover can make up heaps of ground on a non mudlover. (b) I think the draw bias goes out of the window here; especially as the logic will surely be to find “virgin ground” up the middle, or even stands side. The track cambers away from the stands; water runs down hill, all logic is that if there is slightly better fresh Going it is nearer the stands rail and thereforethe bias may well swing to those drawn higher.
The standout horse in the conditions is GOOD OMEN, a draw in 11 will not harm it and it has won on soft and at the distance, run on Good to Soft or better he would be 5th/6th choice, but the mud levels that and he has to have a stonking each way chance. MORNING SUIT is rather less obvious but comes with two vital assets (a) trained by Mark Johnston who excels here and has won for us many a time and (b) has run OK itself on Good to Soft BUT I can confirm that thedam of this horse was a confirmed mud lover and had a touch of stamina to boot – well worth a small investment – grab the price.
5.20 The high drawn horse here should enjoy the best ground but many of them are confirmed good ground horses, of those drawn high MEGAN LILY in stall 13 looks a bit of an each way banker to me with luck in running. Ticks the Going and form boxes and also a bit of form over slightly further in a race that may suit something proven over 6 furlongs as opposed to an out and out speedster. I looked at Carlton Frankie in stall 12; love the Trainer and what a story that wouldbe, but not sure about the Going, so the second pick would be POETS SOCIETY is stall 7, form with cut, best running prominently and no doubt, Buick will want to trap fast and get up to that rail, if he does he plays “catch me”
Those would be the selections for today but just a few extra snippets!
I can’t get away from the “poets” in the 4.10 race and will be having a few bob each way on POETS PRINCE and POETIC STEPS in the 7 furlong race and see the biggest dangers there as Jedi Master and Billesdon Brook.
The 2.25 looks to have a strong favourite in Endless Time and Mark Johnston can cap a decent day (hopefully); with one of his lesser lights at Nottingham in the 5.40 where NOTHING COMPARES joins Our Cilla as the only horses in the race, who look likely to enjoy the conditions…Cilla Black does Sinead O’Connor – the mind boggles!
Back in the morning with a look at Day 4
That’s the lot for today.
GL with any bets, as always,