Well well. What a day! Winners everywhere again, the personal highlight being the Galway Plate- not because of how much I won necessarily but I take great satisfaction from getting big handicap chases correct. The puzzle was solved. Only 7/1, but I’ll take that every day of the week! +8.5 points on the race.
Elsewhere.. Goodwood was fun… the video highlighted winners at 10/1 and 80/1 (or 66s) – 30p Rule 4 but Here Comes When looked worth an EW bet if turning heavy. There were various winners in the Members Post as I write at 25/1, 7/2, 5/4… Johnston’s Goodwood winner highlighted on the micro stats, and a couple at Galway.
Another good day. It has been a bit mad since the Bunbury Cup. We shall see how long we can keep it going. No idea what, if anything, will be covered on Thursday, feels like a long week already!
Plenty of winners posted in comments also, superb effort as always.
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MICRO SYSTEMS/STATS
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
1.30 Strat- Sage Monkey
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live test
3.45 Strat- Moorlands jack (9/1<)
1.30 Strat – Sage Monkey (12/1<)
Flat 2017: 60 Day Trainers
3.35 Good – So Mi Dar (any)
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Goodwood
Soft/Heavy Ground Winners>>> The following list simply highlights those horses with winning form on soft or heavy. A starting point. This game is never that simple (albeit that approach worked ok yesterday) so we shall see…
1.50 – Good Omen – WON 8/1
3.00- Green Power / Nebo
3.35 – Shutter Speed / So Mi Dar
4.10 – Poetic Steps / Jedi Master
5.20 Megan Lilly
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Nothing from Galway. I have some stats/trends/shortlist for the Galway Hurdle but they will be Members’ Only this time, as will most handicap hurdle stats/shortlists when main winter season gets going proper- more as a bit of a test, but found a few decent winners when dabbling last year. These big race shortlists are due some losers though, having found 8 winners in a row.
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Stratford: Through The Card Video…
Tony, a member, is off to the races and asked me to have a look through which I was happy to do. It is mediocre fare and I’d probably only back most of these if I were at the track! Lots of C5 dross and inconsistent beasts, and plenty of well fancied ones…
Oh, and the first 10 minutes is spent responding to one of the more bizarre emails I have received… you can skip that if you wish, or you may find it of interest, you can’t please all the people all the time…
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Guest Race Preview/Tips: Speculate 2 Accumulate
Good Morning
Goodwood
1.50 5 Good Omen @ 8/1 WON / 13 Morning Suit UP@ 33/1 (All Bookies odds to 4th / SkyBet to 6th)
5.20 5 Megan Lily @ 10/1 / 6 Poets Society @ 10/1 (All Bookies Odds to 3rd / SkyBet to 4th)
(1/2 point each way each horse)
We managed to find another gallant placed horse yesterday with Arthur McBride; who ran prominently throughout a gallant third, if you took the early price a nice return. The winner Cool Sky was one I had looked at very closely; the concern for me was the trip, as he had not run beyond 2 miles on the Flat before. A bit concerning therefore to hear some references post race to his “proven stamina”; it does ring alarm bells when I fear I have missed something; but the post race comments of Trainer Ian Williams, that he considered taking the horse out of the race due to the
Going and trip, somewhat eased those concerns. You can’t win them all and the “places” are mounting up, but we are overdue a win, after an excellent Royal Ascot, so will be looking for the Winners Enclosure today.
The deluge yesterday will mean everyone is looking (understandably) for “heavy/soft” ground form today, that isentirely logical but poses two serious questions (a) will heavy ground horses be “over-backed” and no value and (b) do we really know that those with little/no soft ground form, will go in it, until they try?. I won’t bore you with dosage and pedigree, but a look back a generation at dams and sires is usually a good guide, as are to look at those Trainers; whose DNA is not to risk horses, on ground they consider unsuitable – more of that in a moment.
I have changed tack slightly today, I think you have to be adaptable and flexible and adapt to conditions, so having decided there was no point studying form last night, until we had some ideas of actual Going and non runners; an early start on the form this morning and an “open mind” – the brain does retain a lot of information and sometimes you need to refresh it, get rid of preconceptions and misconceptions and look afresh!
So, with a slightly lesser explanation of every runner, here are the tips and logic for a more concise set today.
—-
1.50 is 1 mile 2 furlongs and straight away I’m looking for soft/heavy form, form at the trip and over a bit further as clearly stamina will be an issue. I also make 2 adaptions when conditions are like this (a) look down a class on previous runs, mud is a great leveler (never more aptly seen with Ribchester yesterday) a mudlover can make up heaps of ground on a non mudlover. (b) I think the draw bias goes out of the window here; especially as the logic will surely be to find “virgin ground” up the middle, or even stands side. The track cambers away from the stands; water runs down hill, all logic is that if there is slightly better fresh Going it is nearer the stands rail and thereforethe bias may well swing to those drawn higher.
The standout horse in the conditions is GOOD OMEN, a draw in 11 will not harm it and it has won on soft and at the distance, run on Good to Soft or better he would be 5th/6th choice, but the mud levels that and he has to have a stonking each way chance. MORNING SUIT is rather less obvious but comes with two vital assets (a) trained by Mark Johnston who excels here and has won for us many a time and (b) has run OK itself on Good to Soft BUT I can confirm that thedam of this horse was a confirmed mud lover and had a touch of stamina to boot – well worth a small investment – grab the price.
5.20 The high drawn horse here should enjoy the best ground but many of them are confirmed good ground horses, of those drawn high MEGAN LILY in stall 13 looks a bit of an each way banker to me with luck in running. Ticks the Going and form boxes and also a bit of form over slightly further in a race that may suit something proven over 6 furlongs as opposed to an out and out speedster. I looked at Carlton Frankie in stall 12; love the Trainer and what a story that wouldbe, but not sure about the Going, so the second pick would be POETS SOCIETY is stall 7, form with cut, best running prominently and no doubt, Buick will want to trap fast and get up to that rail, if he does he plays “catch me”
Those would be the selections for today but just a few extra snippets!
I can’t get away from the “poets” in the 4.10 race and will be having a few bob each way on POETS PRINCE and POETIC STEPS in the 7 furlong race and see the biggest dangers there as Jedi Master and Billesdon Brook.
The 2.25 looks to have a strong favourite in Endless Time and Mark Johnston can cap a decent day (hopefully); with one of his lesser lights at Nottingham in the 5.40 where NOTHING COMPARES joins Our Cilla as the only horses in the race, who look likely to enjoy the conditions…Cilla Black does Sinead O’Connor – the mind boggles!
Back in the morning with a look at Day 4
Regards
Ian
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That’s the lot for today.
GL with any bets, as always,
Josh
19 Responses
I thought it was interesting that Gay Kelleway makes her first trip to Ffos Llas for 4 years with Lady Alavesa in the 18:10. She has only sent three horses there winning with two of them. The horse and the favourite appear the only two horses suited by tomorrow’s conditions and the last time the horse ran on soft ground 3 starts ago was 2nd in a class 4 to a horse now rated in the 70s and this is a class 6. Has been backed the past two runs so connections clearly feel she is good enough to win. I thought she should be much more closely priced with the favourite.
At Goodwood I like the look of Dubka in the 14:25 and Megan Lilli in the 17:25. Both should like tomorrow’s conditions and both have been handed favourable draws (high very much seemed the place to be in Tuesday’s 5f sprint). The market seems to agree since both have been well backed. Stoute has a good record at the track in non-handicaps here (8/22, 14p +11) which improves to 3/7, 5p +8 with Ryan on board.
After 9 2nds or 3rds from my last 13 tips finally a winner.
Cheers Nick, had a piece of that after your comments 🙂
Josh,
My stat of the day at Geegeez made profit every month for 12 months in a row, but I lost 8pts in the final fortnight of July and you wouldn’t believe how a small number of punters reacted.
So I know exactly where you’re at, stick at it, mate.
Chris
I follow Stat of the Day and know that the last two weeks have not gone well. However I look long term and so hope you will bounce back soon. You seem to be focusing on the evening racing lately. Is that just coincidence?
You started recently Martin? That long term record of success should give you confidence- and the first half of this year was mad, results wise… suspect a natural correction, usually a solid 80-120 point year come rain or shine – have to trust in it, like anything.
No, been going with SOTD 18 months. I remember that whilst I was at the Cheltenham festival this year he had a week of winners at lesser meetings which brought in a fair few quid. I am £5K up on SOTD in 2017 at present.
Cheers Chris… yep one of those…i don’t think the blog could have done any better than it has in the last 4/5 weeks, across the board- it’s when readers etc don’t get the best out of it, or get enough to make it enjoyable, that it niggles- as you can forever question what more you could be doing- in terms of helping everyone get the best out of the content. We move on.
Josh, you know I’m a huge fan of this blog so I am clearly biased but I don’t think anything needs to change. The site is laid out very simply with clear definition between free and members content. There is a mine of information for people to do with what they want but there are plenty of “tips” in there too if people just want to pick those out or follow the comments threads which are outstanding and filled with knowledgeable and hard-working members providing their own insight. The fact that you have got Chris (I follow Stat of the Day – love that too), presumably Matt Bisogno and Gary Priestley to name but a few on board is testament to what you are doing. Cancellations hurt in any service industry (they constantly get me down) but stick with it and rest assured that recent results are no fluke but a culmination of the work that you and the other commentators are putting into this fine site.
Cheers
Ben
Cheers Ben,
(i stumbled across Geegeez a few years back now, Matt mentored me etc through a training programme he once did.. from geegeez that’s how I found likes of Priestley brothers, Ben Aitken, etc – and I converse with most of them, and Chris, on the tweet machine… it’s a fine bunch… Gary will be back with a guest blog again soon,with a focus on his mad July, case studies, win%/losing runs etc, that should be good) The ‘feel’ of the blog couldn’t be better, on the engagement front etc. All good fun…
Oh yep cancellations are part of life- it’s not the money/business considerations that niggle – they will happen, people move on- it’s if the decision is based on performance , and recent performance, that bemuses me!! But those that enjoy it really enjoy it, and there is a solid core who seem happy to stick around 🙂 Including your good self. (no pressure!!) I’m glad you ‘get it’ – it does take some time but everything worthwhile doing in life tends to.
Josh
i also like the look of Dubka 6-1 in the 2-25 but the fly in the ointment could be Harlequeen 14-1 , ran a good race fto last season coming second in the Tattersalls Millions, has won at Goodwood in the soft, the booking of De Sousa is a positive and if Channon’s got her ready for this could run a big race.
No analysis of the nursery but perhaps worth noting that one of my horses to follow Cosmopolitan Queen goes, finally stepping up to 7f. I have been convinced she needed 7f but whether she will handle heavy is an unknown, She is powerfully made so I am hopeful and Dubawi stats on heavy are at least average. The going will be heavy, I was there yesterday and it was a biblical deluge. The claims of good to soft for the first then soft for those later were laughable.
3rd August 6f Richmond Stakes
4.25 Cardsharp, Etefaq, U S Navy Flag
3.75 Nebo, Havana Gold
3.5
3.25 Barraquero,
3
2.75 Bullington Bandit
2.5
2.25 Green Power
2
Preview – Given the likely heavy ground this is not really worth getting involved in. Nebo did win easily on soft at Newbury fto but nothing he beat has proved to be up to much although his run behind Gustav Klimt lto reads well, Etefaq was further back in 8th.
Headway is by Havana Gold who’s progeny yesterday won on soft to heavy but that is a small sample.
I wouldn’t be surprised by an upset in the Richmond, maybe Green Power?
Prior race notes
Cardsharp -Remarkable result for a horse who started his career at Brighton. I have to admit this swayed my judgement of him throughout. Tall and strongly made looking hard hard fit. Bit less chest depth than some but no lack of heart. 98
U S Navy Flag – Badly under-rated after Ascot. Blinkers and limited size still making him look less than he is. 94
Nebo – One of the smallest in the field, possibly top end of small or just into bottom of medium. Looked well but not outstanding. Well-made neat package but hard to see him as group potential. Interesting to see how he develops. A very suspect 87
Nebo – As suspected size is the problem here, a bit close coupled. 85
Bullington Bandit – Big, lumpy brute, dismissed as ugly by me. Usually after this sort of result one can console oneself along the lines of “well, I liked him but did not think the trainer could have him ready enough”. No such excuse here. He is powerful but so heavy set as to look like he would need at least one more run to be fit enough. 75
Green Power – Bit bigger than the rest, say lower medium, heavily made 70
Barraquero – Tall colt, less scope than first two, suspicion of tubularity. 72
Headway – Medium, powerfully made in a compact package. Kept rugged until the last second so little opportunity for inspection but good impression. Bit keen early and had to be restrained back by Cosgrave possibly surrendering 4l to Embour and 2l to GT. No stick used unlike the 1st and 3rd. Promising 87 (nb this race has not worked out at all)
Headway – Medium, powerfully made in a compact package. Kept rugged until the last second so little opportunity for inspection but good impression. Bit keen early and had to be restrained back by Cosgrave possibly surrendering 4l to Embour and 2l to GT. No stick used unlike the 1st and 3rd. Promising 87
Headway – Another medium sized one, looking very well 100
3rd August Goodwood 7f Fillies Mdn
4.25 Magical, Ripley
3.75 Ann Without An E, Miss Paris, Roulette, Zilara
3.5
3.25
3
2.75 Rotherhithe
2.5
2.25 Titchy digits
2
Preview – Hard to see anything worrying Magical if she runs, Ripley the obvious one but she has not had a run and with the wet ground tomorrow it will take a very good one to overturn the Coolmore hotpot.
Hugh
Hi Hugh, I too have been waiting for Cosmopolitan Queen to run and am on at 25/1. I cannot worry too much about the ground at that price. Magical has been well touted and so will need to take these out if that is true.
What do you know of Rotherhithe? It is where I grew up. Is it related to Bermondsey (one and the same place in South London)? Hopefully it is better than the last named.
The video you did was a good example of how to analyse a card that is moderate nad so thank to that. One I would put up at the meeting would be Capsy De Mee in the 3.10 v Theo. A french import who apparently jumps well.
Hannon system : 8.30 Epsom Habbad 7/2.
Gosden system : 3.00 Goodwood Headway 4/1.
Haggas system : 3.35 Goodwood So Di Mar 4/1.
You got Haggas and Gosden the wrong way round Chris.
Cheers Nick.
Should read:
Hannon system : 8.30 Epsom Habbad 7/2.
Haggas system : 3.00 Goodwood Headway 4/1.
Gosden system : 3.35 Goodwood So Di Mar 4/1.
Had a little look at one race today.
4.35 Galway
417 runners – 20 years.
No win in last 4 runs: 2/127, 20p
No place in last 2 runs: 2/109,9p
Last run, >75days: 1/71
Last race, graded race: 1/56
Last win, UK race: 1/56
No handicap wins: 2/110
Places going RH 0-2: 1/66
199 – 10
Last 3 runs, NO top 2: 1/40
Career runs, NOT 6-25: 1/41
Last win, <2m: 1/32
Not very overwhelming stats but the above leaves: Tigris River (13/2), Timiyan (9/1) and Project Bluebook (16/1).
Few who miss out by just one include Swamp Fox and Western Boy.
🙂
Today’s football bet sees the Granite City men travel to sunny Limassol. Derek McInness has this team well set up and Apollon are not that good and so lay the home team at 11/10.