Free Daily Post: 02/08/17 (complete)

Hmm. Well an interesting day at Goodwood…many a big price horse going in. Two winners at 7/2>6/4 and 11/1>6/1 was a decent enough start for the Members’ notes albeit a long way to go. On the free post we had the ‘winner’ of race one…another stats/trends shortlist doing the job at a decent price… unfortunately he was rightly demoted to second by the stewards albeit I don’t blame the jockey. He won’t be declared as an official winner as that doesn’t make me comfortable- those who bet with online bookmakers may have been paid (main have a first past the post policy), those who bet on the highstreet or BFSP wouldn’t have been paid out. Still, yet more confidence can be taken from the approach I think- these shortlist are finding big priced horses that run well. On we march…

Tuesday was a milestone… first time a members post has hit the 10 winner mark for the day… 9/2,13/8,11/1,7/2,4/1,8/1,7/1,5/1,9/2, 8/1… plus 20/1 ‘winner’ DQ (online books paid) of 1.50 on this post. Trends/stats ‘working’ again.

I don’t expect anyone to have backed all of those but fingers crossed Members’ /readers backed a few/came out ahead for the day, which is the main thing. A bit of door knocking as well, esp mr Hogan at Galway,all his ran with credit at a price.
It’s now time for Mr Johnston to come to the Goodwood party, buckle up! 🙂

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No micro systems/stats quals

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The Galway Plate 

TIPS

Balko Des Flos – WON 1.5 points win – 7/1 (lad/coral/boyle/sportbet) 6/1 (general)

Haymount – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP

Slow Motion – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 3rd 

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I’ll try and keep this brief enough.. from the shortlist below these three look most interesting.. I may have change on the others at BFSP just in case, albeit that is a cowards way out I suppose, I think they have a few too many questions but we have all been here before. It’s a handicap chase, so I have ‘tipped’…

Balko Des Flos- 7s is just ok, 6s getting on the short side but he looks very interesting here- young enough, unexposed, clearly aimed at the race given the break for me (those after decent breaks do very well in this). De Bromhead has won the race before and the horse races prominently. I couldn’t find a reason not to back him really. Fingers crossed. Davvy Russel is no bad booking either.

Haymount – I think he wants further, I suspect he may get out-paced, and then take a fence with him… but he is 14/1, he is lightly raced over fences, and he has run well/won over shorter. He won’t mind if the ground is on the softer side…and I wondered, whether they may try and make all/race him very prominently -and burn them off from the front. That is what I would try and do. Mullins is also in red hot form and has won this race before, albeit ‘only’ 1/30, 10 have placed. Enough there at the price, given the stats/his profile. Still more to come over fences, probably over further but happy to roll the dice for sure. The positives outweigh my niggles.

Slow Motion – well the RP spotlight says ‘no 5 year old has won this since 1990’ – true, but only 3 have tried since 2000- and at 14s I won’t let that put me off. She is unexposed over fences, the trainer is in decent form, there should be more to come. She may not be good enough but again this looks like it’s been a target. The one niggle is that she can be held up- never advisable here over fences, as you need a lot of luck. With any luck they ride her a bit further forward. Being off the pace may be no bad thing if they go too quickly. We shall see.

Of the rest… Alelchi Inois looks badly out of form and I was happy to leave. Needs a resurrection from somewhere. He does like Galway but none of the main Mullins jocks are on and I will leave. Lord Scoundrel won this last year but is 11lb higher in the weights after jockey claims and doesn’t arrive in the same form. I was happy to leave him, surely something with more in hand/unexposed, takes this! Maybe.

Bentelimar- if i have to have spare chance on a ‘discarded’ horse, may be him… although the trainer is only 1/134 with all handicap runners in recent years. Urgh. The horse has been running in small field novices and didn’t run well in a bigger field handicap chase. He is also very exposed over hurdles, and I don’t like chasers that have spent too long over timber as a general rule. He is a big price and a stat qualifier, so who knows. May be worth some ‘just in case’ change. But I have enough doubts for tipping purposes.

right, that’s the lot… the winner may not be on the shortlist, and in that case I wasn’t destined to find them. I don’t know the Irish scene well so will trust the stats.

I would like to see Road To Riches run well… I read some comments from Meade who said they discovered a problem with his gut or something, and that is why he has been poor for a while. He is now back bouncing at home apparently and this high class horse may go well for a way. I won’t be backing him but it would be nice to see a good run from him, esp having backed him a couple of times at Cheltenham in the past.

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Stats/trends

10/10, 0-2 runs this season

10/10 , 0-3 hncp wins

10/10, 0-3 places in hncp chases

Not 2lb or lower from last run (0/45,6p)

Not hurdle race LTO (0/42,8p)

Not Headgear (0/61,5p)

9/10 last win was right handed (1/84,12p LH)

Shortlist:  If I had a confidence scale on trends races from 1-10, i’d put the Skybet Dash on a 10, the 1.50 Goodwood at around a 7/8, and this one around a 5! There are no overly strong 20 year stats and in truth this profile feels a tad cobbled together. It also has a 9/10 figure. There are other pointers but when they are analysed with those pointers above already saves ‘as a system’ they are insignificant. Those above leave a ‘shortlist’ of 6…

Balko Des Flos / Slow Motion / Haymount / Bentelimar / Lord Scoundrel / Alelchi Inois

I’ll have a flick through the race more in the morning and as it is a handicap chase may ‘tip’ – albeit last time I attempted that at Market Rasen it didn’t go well! I want to see if I can confidently reduce that list in any way- danger! And I probably haven’t mentioned the winner.

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GOODWOOD: Day 2 VIDEO

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(feedback on my filming efforts always welcome.. more positive the better obviously! 🙂 – in all seriousness, suggested areas for improvement welcome also, just say so…) 

Go on, take your 21 Day Free Trial HERE>>>

(you’ve got nothing to lose, and may have a great time.. don’t bother if you ‘just’ want ‘tips’ though ‘back horse X’ … that’s not what we do) 

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GUEST RACE PREVIEW:  Speculate 2 Accumulate

Goodwood 1.50

18 October Storm – 1 point each way @ 10/1 generally (PP go odds to 5th / Sky odds to 6th)

3 Star Rider – 1 point each way @ 10/1 generally (PP go odds to 5th / Sky odds to 6th)

8 Arthur McBride – 1 point each way @ 16/1 (PP go odds to 5th / Sky odds to 6th)

(check SKYBET – 1st race offer and have 1/2 point each way 9 TAWS at 12/1)

We did not have much luck in running yesterday, but absolutely no complaints from me, this is Goodwood, the equine equivalent or Rollerball; we had won the corresponding race last season, benefitting from interference; so “what goes round comes round”.

The race was decided in The Stewards Room, never satisfactory, but in these days of “First Past The Post” many on Dark Red would have been paid out, and all on the winner will have been paid out, and that’s how it should be.

We will attack another race we had the winner of last year again today and hey presto, that horse STAR RIDER returns to defend her crown, and the key word there could be “her” more of that a little later on. There are 2 more angles to consider here; the weather and some attractive Bookie enhancements. SKY are offering a free bet if the favourite wins and your first tip is placed; so we will have a bask at that with what I would label “a backstop”; something I expect to plod in for a place at nice odds.

The weather will be crucial. It is expected to start raining around 8am and basically, then not stop all day; although the more intense rain will fall from around midday. The Going yesterday seemed to me to be more like “pudding”, Good to Soft did not really sum it up, and it won’t take much rain to turn it soft, and could well be bordering on heavy by the close of play, IF the forecast is correct, that will give us some real punting angles later in the week for sure, but lets look closely at today.

2m 4 furlongs and 134 yards, a marathon trip. Had the race been held yesterday there are 3-4 I would have really wanted to be on here that I don’t fancy half as much today with the rain coming, I really want proven stamina, ability to run in some pretty uncompromising ground, Course form is a key asset and a few here have it. These races can turn in to “benefits” for National Hunt horses, but the dynamic and pace of a race on the Flat is far different, so it may be a dangerous alley to go down, simply to turn to the National Hunt fraternity.

So lets try to sort out the wheat from the chaff.

We saw 33/1; 50/1 and 100/1 winners yesterday, so nothing can ever be written off but I think the trip may find out this first batch and if the trip bothers me, so does the Going-: Sunblazer; Paris Protocol and Red Rannagh; it is not great quality by Goodwood standards; so that leaves many in with a chance; although some are on old and spurious form lines and I have had to go back 4-5 years with some of these horses to fins a form starting point.

So; lets weed out a few more -:

Suegioo – favourite of mine but the trip and Going will stretch; always runs a race and will be there until the last few furlongs for sure;  Guard of Honour – should get the trip but the Going is a real concern for me, would have been top 6 but for it in my opinion; Frederic – the trip again a negative not sure about the Going but does know how to win races; in a bit deep here Percy Veer – 2nd last year in this and clearly stays, Going and a nagging 6 month break just keep it of short list Cool Sky – another whose chances rest on stamina or lack of it, a dark horse for sure, but that last 1/2 mile a concern Denmead – won on Good to Soft, 2 mile winner but I think he just lacks the stamina for this on known form and visual evidence.

Hawkerland – is short priced favourite, I want to take him on, trip and no form on soft allow me to.

Akavit – front runner; won on soft, best at 2 miles; likely pace angle and that will give a few of my tips a boost!

That leaves me with a final list of 6 and now we have to get in to a bit of meteorological guess work. If the race was later on the Card I would probably be looking at something different form the same 6 horses but you have to stick your flag in the ground somewhere and I am banking on it being Good to Soft bordering soft and  not worse.

So my final 6 in reverse order-:

6th GOLDEN DOYEN – has a chance on some old Flat form, trip and Going should suit and expect to be in contention

5th AURORA GRAY – would be top 3 but for rain, progressive, promising, just think rain has scuppered win chances stamina wise

4th TAWS – good race/Course history, will plod on and on if you want to take SKYBET option v favourite this is my e/w Banker.

3rd ARTHUR McBRIDE – decent run at Royal Ascot last time out; Trainer has won this race; Going is fine and looks to have

the stamina to be staying on late if not forced to go too fast too soon and if gets run of race strong  contender

2nd STAR RIDER – won for us last year at nice odds, that was on Good to Firm, but plenty of evidence can handle Good to Soft; those are rock solid form lines and looks to have been prepared for this race and should make a bold bid. The “mare angle”; nothing better than to follow a winning mare trying to win the same race as last year, mares like all females have “cycles” and that is a basic fact that it is very easy to overlook, this is her time of year and that can add a few pounds on to any form analysis.

1st OCTOBER STORM – trip looks fine and within range based on recent run, has won at The Course so familiar with its nooks and crannies and they will visit all of them n this trip, best on Good but has run OK on softer and may just get the job done before the worst of the weather intervenes…

Staking strategy…

1 point each way on OCTOBER STORM; STAR RIDER; ARTHUR McBRIDE and  1/2 point each way on TAWS with SkyBet, make it your first bet on SkyBet to hopefully place for favourite enhancement.

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Back tomorrow MORNING as we will assess what the deluge has done to the Going and likely non runners for Day 3.

Regards

Ian

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That is all for today’s post. Good luck with any bets.

Josh