Free Daily Post: 01/08/17 (complete)

micro + guest tips/preview + trends x1 + Beverley Vid


Tom George Chasers (any odds)

8.30 Perth – Cuirassier Dempire (FR)




Guest Race Preview from Speculate 2 Accumulate 

Good Afternoon

I was going to wait until morning for the first Elite tip of the week but having analysed the race and found a couple at VERY NICE prices, why wait and watch the price potentially go overnight if some of the Newspaper tipsters tip them too.

Goodwood 1.50

17 Oasis Fantasy – @ 12/1

8 Baydar – @ 20/1

14 UAE Prince @ 7/1

1 point each way each horse – all Bookies odds to 4th – SkyBet to 5th


Glorious Goodwood is a week later than last year but we got the meeting off to a cracking start last year with FIRE FIGHTING at double figure odds and simply kept on picking winners, and lets hope for a repeat this year, although vital to stress that this is a tough meeting, it is a track where invariably many have “no luck in running” and the soft Going is an added issue.

We had one selected race and a winner in each last year and quite likely we will attack the corresponding races again asmy logic is “if it ain’t broke why fix it”


Goodwood is a unique track, unique racing; the Course is actually run across the top of a ravine; check out the huge drop behind the advertising boards on the far side. The straight track is a fair test but races over a mile can be ridden round an inner or outer loop. The contours mean everything gravitates to the far rail and they can run single file for a long way, this trip of 10 furlongs sees them run uphill initially and then round the right hand bend in to the straight.

The view is a low draw is an asset BUT if you make a slow start you can get behind a wall of horses, FIRE FIGHTING won for us last year from stall 16 and just always had space and room so don’t disregard those who can run prominently.

Lets have a look at the field and the usual weeding out process-:

The following are in my opinion either not good enough or coming off long breaks and form has to be taken too much on trust; Abdon (been gelded but poor this year); Tha’ir (come back from stud just too much of a question mark); Bravery (won Lincoln but not on a great mark and stamina doubts); Eye Of The Storm (back after a year off better over further and on better ground); Noble Gift (Course form and on soft but pulled up on Friday, so despite some form positives could not be confident).

That takes 5 out of the equation and Erik The Red is a non runner so lets get down to the nitty gritty.

What About Carlo is a real star and will run very well I’m sure but just too much weight

Khairaat has never run on ground worse than good and up too much weight to be a danger I feel.  

Murad Khan is both upped back in class and in trip and despite soft ground form stamina is the concern.

Garcia is very short in terms of price I feel based on stamina concerns in a truly run race

Dark Red only ran on Friday and has had some recent runs before that, could be dark horse but fatigued in my opinion.

That leaves me with a final 7 who I believe will be the main contenders, although What About Carlo is a real danger

So lets now drop them off one by one until we get to the chosen three….

Fabricate would be a hugely popular winner won on Good to Soft but all its best form is over 12 furlongs + and  this is really not a race to be outpaced in and trying to find way through and stall 6 may be the hottest strip of turf.

Speed Company won in Class 3 last time a welcome return to form, has good chances especially with confidence restored, PLUM draw if it can make the most of it but I think a sitting duck if it does to something just a shade better.

Master Carpenter ticks every box in many ways, won on Soft; probably a bit high in the handicap and I have one in a minute who is a whopping 13lbs better off with it for 6 lengths and may have needed that run too – place possible

Eddystone Rock – a real danger won on soft in Ireland, trip OK and an interesting mark; could easily have made final three and was touch and go and probably wrong to say it but I don’t like his trainer at all!


So my final three are-:

14 UAE PRINCE – has outstanding form credentials here, could be a touch classy, yard in form and a nice run last time, I think he is better than this handicap mark; lovely racing weight and draw very similar to last years winner! 

17 OASIS FANTASY runner up last year after slight trouble in running, a godsend to us then and deserves another go; Course winner; likes to get his toe in, very similar mark to last year too; 13lbs pull with Master Carpenter and probably needed races so far – J Spencer rides, now this is NOT a hold up track but drawn in 3 I expect Spencer to make sure he does not get baulked and to make sure he has a safe passage.

8 BAYDAR won on soft ground off a mark of 99, simply not had any luck with ground so far this season so hard to say what form he is in. Looks very well treated and having won off 99, if the cut in the ground brings him back to life, could be the best handicapped horse in the race – interesting and positive jockey booking too.

Those are my TOP THREE have 1 point each way on each SKY currently go odds to 5th, others may follow.

I will have a cursory glance at the race in the morning just to make sure nothing has changed but I would get on as soon as you can at advertised prices (correct as at 3.20pm and Best Odds Guarantee if possible)

I won’t at this point commit to Wednesdays tips being sent out on Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning but will try to get them out at optimum time for 100% confidence and best prices.

Good Luck tomorrow 

Regards, Ian




1.50 Goodwood

10 years, 165 runners, 38 places

  • 10/10 age 4/5
  • 10/10 won 9 1/2 F + (0/37,4p had not)
  • 10/10, 4+ distance runs (0/67,12p, 0-3)
  • 10/10, 3+ career wins (0-2, 0/43,9p)
  • 10/10, run 10f+ LTO (0/38,4p did not)
  • 10/10 last win was over 9 1/2 f + (0/46,5 over shorter)


Shortlist:      Speed Company UP / Dark Red 2nd 18/1>12/1 (first past post/DQ-rightly I think) / Baydar UP…. + Eddystone Rock UP (as below) + Abdon (as below)  UP

Now, taking the first 3 of those 10/10 stats, as I was ‘building it as a system’ (you can add in the criteria,hit the ‘now’ button, and up pop the qualifiers)… the first 3 stats, + those with 3 career wins only, were 7/23,11p, +89…  Dark Red and Eddystone Rock ‘qualified on that.

I am also a bit conscious of that 3+ career wins stat. 0-2… 9 places from 43 isn’t too bad.. if I remove that stat, it adds in Abdon to the original three. He also happens to be top 4 in the weights, they were  6/36,13p,+27 …

Do as you please with that little lot, 3 strong trends quals, 2 others.



4.45 Goodwood 

NONE.. not many decent stats jumping out at me really, so I will leave well alone.




A TRIP TO BEVERLEY… a member, Darren, is off to the races on Tuesday and asked me to flick through the card, and I may as well share this here just this once. (another great reason to join the Members Club! :)) I will maybe give up on trying to record ‘short’ videos albeit I promise the time flies by and plenty of interesting nuggets emerge…with any luck the odd horse runs ok on what looks a mediocre card- certainly I would only play on most of these if I was having a day at the races, albeit as I have gone through it a few £5s may have to be scattered around!  Do with it as you please, it will be in the only video on Tuesday… I can hear the cheers…



You can take a 30 day trial of Geegeez Gold, for £1, HERE>>>



Would you like my Galway+Goodwood trainer notes? 
Members’ get these as part of their membership but if you would like to buy a copy without joining the club you can now do so.
There is no hard sell here. They cost £7 (+vat) and are deliberately sold through ClickBank so that you can get a full refund come the end of the week, if they were not for you.
Sometimes these notes find plenty of decent priced winners, sometimes they don’t! Sadly history is no guarantee of future success but when it all clicks, it’s rather good fun.
You can find these trainer notes/positive pointers/micro angles for 5 trainers at Goodwood and 6 at Galway. All of these trainers have had great success at recent meetings.
(and if they don’t work for you, just get a full refund, no questions asked. No problem)

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. Quick note on the bookie offers for the 1:50. Sky don’t go 5 places, just Paddypower so far. Sky are offering money back on all losing bets up to £20, if your account is still in good shape

  2. 1st August Goodwood 7f Vintage stakes
    4.25 Expert Eye, Mildenberger, Sallab, Seahenge, Zaman
    3.75 James Garfield,
    3.25 Curiosity
    2.75 Finsbury Park
    2 Cold Stare 1.75 Watheer
    Preview – Concentrating on the top 5 as I don’t think any of the others are good enough other than the unknown factor of Cold Stare who has a bad draw and a jockey who is 0/1 at Goodwood I am going to leave out Sallab who looked a bit quirky at Epsom and only just finished in front of some ordinary ones when winning.
    Zaman looks a lot better than I have him rated from the Coventry but has had enough runs.
    This leaves Seahenge, Expert Eye and Mildenberger. Seahenge looked a bit green fto and stats are against those with only one run on this difficult course so reluctantly discarded despite the Ryan/Aiden combo.
    Expert Eye fails the same test and although I under-rated him on the day I think he has been so talked up by the gallop watchers that I have to go with my ratings which have Mildenberger well clear.
    Prior race notes
    Expert Eye review – Another puzzling result on a day of very slow times. Both the first two looked to be carrying plenty of condition, as to be fair, did most. Very difficult to put a number on these without any sort of benchmark and I am worried that I am under-rating them
    Expert Eye – Medium, noted as fat although it may just be barrel chested but not really one to set the heart racing. Great ride from Ryan Moore as usual, won under h & h. 80
    Mildenberger – Big strong boisterous, typical Mark Johnston shape, longer body with less pronounced barrel to his chest, colty but not boiling over. 95
    Zaman – Good looking well made sort. 78

    1st August Goodwood 6f Mdn
    4.25 Algam, Lake Volta, Makambe, Rebel Streak, Tribal Quest
    3.75 George
    3.25 Alrahaal, Baghdad, Bombastic, Oliver Reed, Princely, Thechildren’Strust,
    2.75 Hell Of A Band
    2.25 The Great Dandini
    Preview – Can’t really split Algam, Tribal Quest and Rebel Streak, the three top rated who have had a run. Would like to think it is between those.

    Prior race notes
    Rebel Streak – Well-made lower medium, neat, very green and no surprise to see him miss break. Could improve up to some of these.76
    Tribal Quest – A size bigger than the winner, medium, marginally tubular. 77

  3. Good day of racing today and I think Home of the Brave in the Lennox (Goodwood 15:00) makes a cracking e/w bet at the prices particularly with a number paying four places. Drawn in stall one his front running style will suit. Barring Ryan Moore getting Spirit of Valor out quickly from stall 10 quickly (not impossible but certainly no piece of cake) he could get an uncontested lead here. He won’t mind what the ground does. He is 5/9,7p over 7f and gets on well with James Doyle (5/8, 6p). He has finished 1st or 2nd in each of his last 6 runs over 7f and has 2 2nds from 3 runs in group 2s. Palmer is in form and targets Glorious Goodwood and has a solid 3/20, 7p +7 record at the meeting. I think both Limato and Libresa Breeze prefer straight tracks and the former may not like the ground and the latter has a terrible draw and 7f here is not a good place to be with a hold up horse. He was 2nd in this last year I would be disappointed if he isn’t up there again today.

    Sticking with the same jockey and trainer combo I am keeping the faith with Murad Khan in the 13:50. Tipped up on here when he won easily at Windsor LTO and suggested the step up to 1m2f would suit. The 2nd has since franked the form. Palmer thought before the start of the season he would end up as a Stakes horse and would be running over 10f so this fits. Appreciate the stats are a bit damning about horses yet to win at the distance but if you dig further horses who have yet to to run over more than 1m are 0/5, 2p which certainly suggests it’s not a disadvantage to stick with a progressive one here. Stall 11 isn’t an issue over this longer trip and hopefully Doyle will get him out in a prominent position.

    Moving over to Yarmouth I think Captain Colby looks a very big price in the 17:00. Back to the same mark as when he won last year’s Portland he drops into a class 3. Ed Walker is a wizard when applying a first time hood (3/8, 5p in handicaps) so the fact it goes on today is eye-catching. I like the fact that Richard Kingscote is booked for the ride considering he must have had other options than to come to Yarmouth. The horse should like the track given he is 2/3 on flat tracks. Walker himself has a solid 9/36, 14p +37 career record in handicaps at the track and is another in form.

    I also have a couple of smaller bets which look over priced. Firstly going by GG speed ratings as well as recent form Vibrant Cords and Momentofmadness seem to be the ones to side with however I want to side with Kasbah who is the 3rd ranked and now 11lb and 10lb better off with these two. He is also 5lbs above his last winning mark. He has a good draw and should lead his side of the draw. It’s interesting that Fanning takes over the ride which I thought was an upgrade. The trainer loves a winner at her local track and this may have been the track. Was a solid 2nd LTO so clearly in form and the 3rd has since won a similar sort of race.

    Lastly I want to step into the deep and murky waters of the ladies riders race in the 18:00 at Beverley. I have been impressed with Paige Fuller over the jumps (another winner yesterday) this season and she is well worth her 5lbs there yet for some reason she is allowed to ride in lady amateur races in the flat which seems a bit unfair. She has already had a big priced winner on her only previous run for the trainer. The horse has not raced on soft since his last win in 2015 and is now 25lbs lower (still only 5). He has yet to race on heavy but I don’t think it will be an issue. He gets a nice low weight here which I think will be key with several at the head of the market carrying absolute chunks for a flat horse. Trainer is in decent form. Overall in that context the 25/1 was too big. Just hope 8 stand their ground.

      1. Thanks mate. Just one winner would be nice given my last 7 have gone 3322224. I forgot to add that Murad Khan also fits your top 4 weights stat.

        1. Nice write up Nick. I like the pick re Captain Cody. In the 1.50 I am with Josh re Oasis Fantasy (although he is not well drawn I think?). I also like Dark Red although I take Josh’s point re a recent run. He may be suited to the undulations of Goodwood? Paul Kealy put up Murad Khan but he is well out of form with naps but his luck must turn soon.

          Re Seahenge’s race. I would expect him to improve considerably from his debut win. I guess the price will be restrictive as it comes from the O’Brien stable. The Johnston horse will go out and put it up to them I guess?

          1. Strong Steps won @ 17/2 very easily yesterday after only running 8th at Newcastle just 2 days previously.

            It had shown better form over All Weather tracks so on paper the run on Saturday was a disappointment and yet clearly to win yesterday was in no way a problem to have run 2 days ago…..

            Dark Red is a Gary Priestley selection, yesterday he selected Strong Steps and also 3 seconds amongst his selections…..a horse being “tired” after a very recent run should not be against it and is not IMO grounds to dismiss the horse from being considered

          2. Norman; it is a very valid point that you make about Dark Red and the fact that Gary P is in outstanding form should alert anyone to its chances.

            I would not normally discount any horse that has run a few days before, but to clarify my comments about it, the “fatigued” comment was as much to do with the fact that the horse ran also on 15th July; so that will mean 3 tough good class competitive handicaps in just over 2 weeks and I feel, looking at the horses profile that it usually can handle 2 races close together but may need 5-6 weeks for a span of 3 tough races.

            If it wins I will be cheering for you and Gary P and his legion of followers.

            GL ian

          3. (that’s a guest race preview Martin, from SP2A… they are not my thoughts etc!! 🙂 )

          4. Sorry Josh, my mistake.

            At Goodwood today, not that easy, I will put up – 1.50 looks hard but I have already put Oasis Fantasy and Dark Red up; 2.25 I would say O’Brien but not at <2/1 and so I go Mildenburger, who will set a good pace I think, and James Garfield, who I think will be suited by 7F; 3.00, at the price I oppose Librisa Breeze. The Tony Bloom money has come but the horse has a poor draw and prefers Ascot and so I am dubious of it being suited by the course. At a puch Home of the Brave; 3.35 Sheik…. each way. Has run the course well before and can get 2 miles; 4.45 Dark Shot will hopefully be suited by the track. The other races are too hard for me.

            Good luck.

    1. Nick your point about Kingscote riding at Yarmouth seemed reasonable, so I had a look at the card. SDS has 7 rides there!!! All around 3/1 or less !! Two top jockeys riding Yarmouth for two very different reasons perhaps!!
      SDS to bag a treble at least today? He’ll be fuming if he goes away empty handed!!

  4. On Oasis Fantasy ew,only worried that Spencer does one of his waiting jobs and gets stuck up the inside,lets hope he comes down the outside.

  5. I’m in an awful run of form currently but I will keep the faith and have had 2 bets in the opener, OASIS FANTASY each-way, reasons above stated. I’ve also thrown a couple of quid at THA’IR at 25-1. This lad used to be with Saeed Bin Suroor and is now with Mick Appleby who has a very profitable record with new horses to his yard first time out. He’s had a fair bit time off but did win first time out in 2015 after a break.

  6. Goodwood? Galway?
    Nah off too Beverley and with some great insight from Josh.
    Fantastic given it was a more in hope request so big thanks for posting the video.
    Good luck everyone hopefully Dark Red @ goodwood will get the day off to a flyer!

  7. Quick question that I meant to ask the other day Josh, with regards to the stat pack is there any difference between this and say 2015s good wood pack?

    1. blimey i can’t remember that far back! It is just 5 trainers with positive pointers, focus on Johnston/micros, but interesting snippets for a few others- i do things bit different since then, on the big meeting notes front- not sure I did them back then – the stats just focus on glorious goodwood, nothing to do with my ‘trainer track profiles’ reports etc. Sold through CB so you can easily get a refund if not for you/didn’t help/found donkeys all week 🙂

  8. Looks like it might be heading for a going change at Perth later. Might be worth a second look at the card.

  9. As promised an update on my micros at the end of July – these are ones I have stolen from others or come across myself.

    The Clive Cox 2YO’s are not winning and so avoid until form picks up. The Declan Carroll July runners in handicaps at the lesser tracks found a 12/1 winner and 3 losers. The Greatrex summer hurdlers and NHF runners hit a slump in July but are still + 20 going forward. Sir Mark found a 14/1 winner and a 3/2 winner and a loser from the various all weather filters I have, so +16. I will try to flag these on the blog in future when they run. Some of the other micros are dormant at present but will hopefully get rolling soon. Apologies If I am not spot on re the stats performance as I was away working certain days in July. Now that I am a full time punter I should be more on top of things.

  10. Really enjoyed the video Josh, would be interested in watching other racing fans on how they study similar to today

    1. Thanks Mitch, much appreciated.
      Yep many ways to skin a cat in this game/do well – i have my own methods/take on the game, and of course I, like all punters should be, endeavour to improve all the time.
      I think it is important to have a ‘starting point’ and a ‘way in’ to then looking at horses in more depth- for me/members that is often a trainer based selection- but as per video with Bev, i used trainer form/suitability for extreme going/pace – and my mind increasingly asks the ‘what is the horse doing different question’ to last run/recent runs, are they lightly raced/could they improve, why should they run better today.

      Others will be all about time, or handicap ratings, or any other number of approaches. And we all get better with experience.


    1. Well that was good fun!! Yep i have been paid out, so we shall see. I think they may reverse it.
      7 races in a row, main shortlist of 3, 5 total. Happy with that.

      1. Paid out by Paddy Power, shout out to them as it is a fair few quid. Well done all who were on.

        1. Yep, online fine, PP only highstreet who pay out in shops i think, first past the post… BFSP won’t have, and nor any other shops – most online firms pay out. Can’t put it down as a ‘winner’ sadly, but the bank account doesn’t mind.

  11. Well done Josh. I tipped him for the John Smiths Cup so should have stuck with him. At least I was on unlike the last trends race.

    1. Wont mind if they reverse it either given I fiver freebet on the runner up from the Goodwood trends.

  12. Enjoying my little break from betting and found I can do some decent research
    without being in the cut and thrust of results.

    What I have noticed about the posts on Racing to profit is that the vast majority of posts
    are about handicap races trying to find winners at big prices.
    Josh seems brilliant at this but I am not so good at analysing 16 runner races.
    and taking the long losing runs
    Are there any punters who specialise in non handicaps?

    I am testing a little system that targets inexperienced horses be it maidens on the flat,
    maiden hurdlers, bumpers etc.

    The rules are as following
    1 Must have the best racing post rating( signifies it is the best horse who has had a run)
    2 must have the best top speed rating and be rated 80+(signifies that it is capable of running a decent time)
    3 his rpr must be above the average rpr winning average
    4 must be odds against
    5must have had at least two prior runs(debutants and 2nd time out can run below expectations)
    6 must have earned at rating on the current ground( egmay run a shocker if ratings was earned on a/w and switched to heavy ground at a much different track.
    7must have earned at rating at the current distance( sudden jump from 6f to 7 may see a non stayer)
    8 must not be jumping in track grade( if top ratings were earned at Ripon,Leicester, Windsor etc
    and now running at Ascot

    So far I have found they do well and give you a slight advantage in win singles
    but what is really hitting me in the face is that a very high percentage(so far) have been placed
    early days yet but.

    todays qualifiers Tribal Quest 4.10 Goodwood 9/4
    Skeaping 6.55 Perth 6/4
    Sizzling 6.25 2/1??

    The first two tick all the boxes on the current going but
    Skeaping would be ruled out if the ground turns soft
    Sizzling is a 90% qualifier as she has form on g/s
    but hasn’t run on the current soft by GALILEO
    the soft ground shouldn’t be a problem but the wide draw in 10 could be

    1. Gosh 8 criteria! Suggest a bit of filtering as things develop further. Good luck and will be following you Peter.

      1. Thanks Martin,
        Instead of jumping in heads down.
        I am going to trial it for a few months to see if it is winning formula

        I think for me the best bet is to combine these criteria plus an analysis
        of the race and watching the videos.

        obviously with so many criteria there wont be hundreds of bets
        but for me this may this be just what I need
        for instance todays three qualifiers but two have doubts about them.

        Skeaping is unproven on soft ground and over 2m4f
        so if the thunderstorms arrive then he isn’t a solid horse

        Sizzing has a wide draw in 10 which isn’t ideal at Galway
        unproven on soft ground and has a stable mate who is taking all the money
        ran well last time and Aiden is seeming to place more faith in his son
        Donnacha who rode a treble on three favs on Saturday

        Tribal Quest is the main horse as he ticks every box
        highest rating post rating 103(next best97)
        topspeed of 90(next best is 80)
        average adjust winning RPR for the race 101 so he has run 2 points better than the standard.
        both runs on g/f so todays good ground is a slight unknown
        ran over 6f on debut but 7f sto brought back to 6f today so move suggest horse has plenty of speed.

        but beaten 5l fto and only a sh next time so improved
        a good deal

        Against him is the fact there are 5 other runners who finished 2nd lto
        Hannon runs 3 and strange that Ryan Moore is on the unraced one.

        the horse looks rock solid but not a superstar
        9/4 looks fair price as the others have to improve past the standard
        he has set.
        Will be surprised if he isn’t bang there at the finish
        but would prefer smaller field as less chance of one coming out of the woodwork

    1. I would point out you had a big priced winner you forgot you had backed, and a stewards reversal haha – I suspect there are a few who are having a harder time 🙂 But I take your point! Kept finding- they must have got racing some way out, and must be some soft in that ground, or plenty of it.

      1. I see your point but that’s different though I didnt tip those. Goes under different stats. I was referring to my own personal work.

        1. Ahhh! Apols, that makes sense- it will turn, as it always does…my content may hit the buffers, and then you won’t stop tipping winners!

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