Tom George Chasers (any odds)
8.30 Perth – Cuirassier Dempire (FR)
Guest Race Preview from Speculate 2 Accumulate
I was going to wait until morning for the first Elite tip of the week but having analysed the race and found a couple at VERY NICE prices, why wait and watch the price potentially go overnight if some of the Newspaper tipsters tip them too.
17 Oasis Fantasy – @ 12/1
8 Baydar – @ 20/1
14 UAE Prince @ 7/1
1 point each way each horse – all Bookies odds to 4th – SkyBet to 5th
Glorious Goodwood is a week later than last year but we got the meeting off to a cracking start last year with FIRE FIGHTING at double figure odds and simply kept on picking winners, and lets hope for a repeat this year, although vital to stress that this is a tough meeting, it is a track where invariably many have “no luck in running” and the soft Going is an added issue.
We had one selected race and a winner in each last year and quite likely we will attack the corresponding races again asmy logic is “if it ain’t broke why fix it”
Goodwood is a unique track, unique racing; the Course is actually run across the top of a ravine; check out the huge drop behind the advertising boards on the far side. The straight track is a fair test but races over a mile can be ridden round an inner or outer loop. The contours mean everything gravitates to the far rail and they can run single file for a long way, this trip of 10 furlongs sees them run uphill initially and then round the right hand bend in to the straight.
The view is a low draw is an asset BUT if you make a slow start you can get behind a wall of horses, FIRE FIGHTING won for us last year from stall 16 and just always had space and room so don’t disregard those who can run prominently.
Lets have a look at the field and the usual weeding out process-:
The following are in my opinion either not good enough or coming off long breaks and form has to be taken too much on trust; Abdon (been gelded but poor this year); Tha’ir (come back from stud just too much of a question mark); Bravery (won Lincoln but not on a great mark and stamina doubts); Eye Of The Storm (back after a year off better over further and on better ground); Noble Gift (Course form and on soft but pulled up on Friday, so despite some form positives could not be confident).
That takes 5 out of the equation and Erik The Red is a non runner so lets get down to the nitty gritty.
What About Carlo is a real star and will run very well I’m sure but just too much weight
Khairaat has never run on ground worse than good and up too much weight to be a danger I feel.
Murad Khan is both upped back in class and in trip and despite soft ground form stamina is the concern.
Garcia is very short in terms of price I feel based on stamina concerns in a truly run race
Dark Red only ran on Friday and has had some recent runs before that, could be dark horse but fatigued in my opinion.
That leaves me with a final 7 who I believe will be the main contenders, although What About Carlo is a real danger
So lets now drop them off one by one until we get to the chosen three….
Fabricate would be a hugely popular winner won on Good to Soft but all its best form is over 12 furlongs + and this is really not a race to be outpaced in and trying to find way through and stall 6 may be the hottest strip of turf.
Speed Company won in Class 3 last time a welcome return to form, has good chances especially with confidence restored, PLUM draw if it can make the most of it but I think a sitting duck if it does to something just a shade better.
Master Carpenter ticks every box in many ways, won on Soft; probably a bit high in the handicap and I have one in a minute who is a whopping 13lbs better off with it for 6 lengths and may have needed that run too – place possible
Eddystone Rock – a real danger won on soft in Ireland, trip OK and an interesting mark; could easily have made final three and was touch and go and probably wrong to say it but I don’t like his trainer at all!
So my final three are-:
14 UAE PRINCE – has outstanding form credentials here, could be a touch classy, yard in form and a nice run last time, I think he is better than this handicap mark; lovely racing weight and draw very similar to last years winner!
17 OASIS FANTASY runner up last year after slight trouble in running, a godsend to us then and deserves another go; Course winner; likes to get his toe in, very similar mark to last year too; 13lbs pull with Master Carpenter and probably needed races so far – J Spencer rides, now this is NOT a hold up track but drawn in 3 I expect Spencer to make sure he does not get baulked and to make sure he has a safe passage.
8 BAYDAR won on soft ground off a mark of 99, simply not had any luck with ground so far this season so hard to say what form he is in. Looks very well treated and having won off 99, if the cut in the ground brings him back to life, could be the best handicapped horse in the race – interesting and positive jockey booking too.
Those are my TOP THREE have 1 point each way on each SKY currently go odds to 5th, others may follow.
I will have a cursory glance at the race in the morning just to make sure nothing has changed but I would get on as soon as you can at advertised prices (correct as at 3.20pm and Best Odds Guarantee if possible)
I won’t at this point commit to Wednesdays tips being sent out on Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning but will try to get them out at optimum time for 100% confidence and best prices.
Good Luck tomorrow
10 years, 165 runners, 38 places
- 10/10 age 4/5
- 10/10 won 9 1/2 F + (0/37,4p had not)
- 10/10, 4+ distance runs (0/67,12p, 0-3)
- 10/10, 3+ career wins (0-2, 0/43,9p)
- 10/10, run 10f+ LTO (0/38,4p did not)
- 10/10 last win was over 9 1/2 f + (0/46,5 over shorter)
Shortlist: Speed Company UP / Dark Red 2nd 18/1>12/1 (first past post/DQ-rightly I think) / Baydar UP…. + Eddystone Rock UP (as below) + Abdon (as below) UP
Now, taking the first 3 of those 10/10 stats, as I was ‘building it as a system’ (you can add in the criteria,hit the ‘now’ button, and up pop the qualifiers)… the first 3 stats, + those with 3 career wins only, were 7/23,11p, +89… Dark Red and Eddystone Rock ‘qualified on that.
I am also a bit conscious of that 3+ career wins stat. 0-2… 9 places from 43 isn’t too bad.. if I remove that stat, it adds in Abdon to the original three. He also happens to be top 4 in the weights, they were 6/36,13p,+27 …
Do as you please with that little lot, 3 strong trends quals, 2 others.
NONE.. not many decent stats jumping out at me really, so I will leave well alone.
A TRIP TO BEVERLEY… a member, Darren, is off to the races on Tuesday and asked me to flick through the card, and I may as well share this here just this once. (another great reason to join the Members Club! :)) I will maybe give up on trying to record ‘short’ videos albeit I promise the time flies by and plenty of interesting nuggets emerge…with any luck the odd horse runs ok on what looks a mediocre card- certainly I would only play on most of these if I was having a day at the races, albeit as I have gone through it a few £5s may have to be scattered around! Do with it as you please, it will be in the only video on Tuesday… I can hear the cheers…