No micro qualifiers etc.
The chat, beer and post racing takeway will dominate the day more than the racing no doubt but below I have attempted to highlight any horses of interest/go through the card. I wouldn’t normally play in most of these races but when you go racing you have to get stuck in for fun money. (do say hello if you are track side)
Having looked through this card it will certainly be more a day for beer and socialising than the punting. It looks rather challenging to my eyes and it isn’t helped by the weather. There could be rain. Well, there is likely to be rain. It could be a brief shower or it could turn persistent. The latter would change things somewhat. So, a day for spraying a few hopeful £5 notes around and hoping for the best… (albeit I did pick out a 16/1 winner for you from memory when I went this time last year, so you never know…)
A tricky nursery full of unexposed types all making handicap debut. Trainers with decent handicap debut records at the track include O’Keefe (1/1), Fahey (5/18,5p) (WON 5/1) and Quinn (1/6,3p). Other than that it is a bit of a pin job. Maybe something will jump out in the paddock.
The Love Doctor 2nd could be interesting- he has run in some decent enough races and that York Seller LTO looks ok. He is top rated on Geegeez also and is a decent enough price at least.
Shaheen NR could be up there all the way and like most should be more to come. He is in form at least and the trainer could just be about to fire.
Sheepscar Lad WON 2/1 (after R4) appears to be the one for me. Going racing is a slightly different mindset for me in that the day is improved if you back the odd ‘winner’, where price may not be so important. So I don’t apply my own 6/1+, ‘value’ logic to every race when I go to a meeting. Anyway, at around 5/2 that is as low as I would want to go here. He is Top rated by some way on Geegeez, is well drawn to attack, has been in form, and drops in trip. I am hoping he is fast enough for SDS to make all here. With any luck they don’t see which way he goes.
Time to head to the bar I suspect! I have no real idea and it looks to be between the top two on the ratings/market.
Crowning Glory NR looks interesting on the speed figures and may get some change for interest.
Well this is more like it, but it looks another tricky puzzle.
Mishaal 2nd 25/1 is a TTP qualifier and I will have a small EW interest at that price. He is well handicapped again and is at least running into some kind of form. His draw is a concern but there is a fair amount of pace on paper in this and it may set up for a closer, which is rare around here. Robero WON 6/1>7/2 is also a stats qualifier and maybe I should just stick to those two. His draw is far from ideal and it could be all about the start- if he gets out fast he may be able to hold a position and may even make all. (his speed fig is big compared to other pace setters in this) Or he may get stuck 5 wide the whole way.
Bamber Bridge UP (weak enough in market) is the real unknown quantity in this race and given the rest all seem exposed enough, maybe he is the answer on handicap debut for a yard that is flying. The market may no doubt guide and I will try and get a good look at him and see if he ‘looks’ fit- my paddock eyes still need work though.
No real thoughts here. Some decent yards represented from the South and no doubt one of them will pick this up. The market suggests the Godolphin horse is expected to go well.
A 3 year old only handicap- a punting graveyard if you play in these too often. Well, for me anyway. It could be on the soft side by the time of this and that would improve the chances of Edgar Allan Poe WON 2/1 even further, who does look the most obvious one in here. He is in form and based on that win LTO looks like he will still have something in hand. Experience of the Hamilton hill may help with the final climb here.
Hellomoto UP is interesting pace wise as there is a chance he goes forward here. The run the last day was after a near two month break and there is a chance he comes on for the run a bit. At what could be a nice price he may have some change to see if he can make all.
Mysterial WON 12/1 and Hernandoshideaway 3rd 8/1>7/2 are the two for me in here I think, for track-side change (code for, I’m not that confident!)
The former has been running ok and drops back 2f which caught the eye. They will try and make all with him and if he can get out and across from wide could have every chance of doing so. He gets a visor for the first time as well. He may hate it or it may light him up too much, but at least he is doing a couple of things differently there. He is handicapped to win again.
Hernandoshideaway – comes here for Dods who is in fine recent form, as is this jockey. The horse is lightly enough raced and is 15lb below a class 3 win at the track in August 2015. He hasn’t raced too much since. At least there have been some signs of life on his last two starts. IF he can get away a bit more tidily and track the pace is 3rd/4th, he could be bang there at the death. It’s his second run in a tongue tie which always catches my eye – there is a theory that if a horse has been swallowing their tongue, or for whatever reason has been hesitant in putting in a full effort, it may not be until the second/third run that you see more benefit. This is because when wearing the TT for the first time they are still not sure, mentally, whether putting in full effort still ‘hurts’ (blocked breathing), but as the race goes on they learn that it is much better. So, come the second time around there is no hesitation. They know they can breathe/won’t ‘swallow’ their tongue, and off they go. It’s an idea anyway. Some logic there, if there has been a breathing problem. Or I am just talking nonsense, which happens from time to time.
Right, that little lot will do for me on a tricky day. £5s sprayed around like confetti no doubt but it will be a fun day out and i’m looking forward to catching up with my friends. I will do well to leave with the same amount of money I arrive with.
GL, esp if you follow in on any of those!