Free Daily Post: 11/07/17 (complete)

No micro qualifiers etc.

I’m off to Pontefract races for the day to meet up with some close racing pals (Steve Mullington @mulldog and Ben Aitken @Narrowthefield ). It’s always good to catch up with them.

The chat, beer and post racing takeway will dominate the day more than the racing no doubt but below I have attempted to highlight any horses of interest/go through the card. I wouldn’t normally play in most of these races but when you go racing you have to get stuck in for fun money.  (do say hello if you are track side)

 

Pontefract Notes

Having looked through this card it will certainly be more a day for beer and socialising than the punting. It looks rather challenging to my eyes and it isn’t helped by the weather. There could be rain. Well, there is likely to be rain. It could be a brief shower or it could turn persistent. The latter would change things somewhat. So, a day for spraying a few hopeful £5 notes around and hoping for the best… (albeit I did pick out a 16/1 winner for you from memory when I went this time last year, so you never know…)

2.10 –

A tricky nursery full of unexposed types all making handicap debut. Trainers with decent handicap debut records at the track include O’Keefe (1/1), Fahey (5/18,5p) (WON 5/1) and Quinn (1/6,3p).  Other than that it is a bit of a pin job. Maybe something will jump out in the paddock.

The Love Doctor 2nd could be interesting- he has run in some decent enough races and that York Seller LTO looks ok. He is top rated on Geegeez also and is a decent enough price at least.

Shaheen NR could be up there all the way and like most should be more to come. He is in form at least and the trainer could just be about to fire.

 

2.40 –

Sheepscar Lad WON 2/1 (after R4) appears to be the one for me. Going racing is a slightly different mindset for me in that the day is improved if you back the odd ‘winner’, where price may not be so important. So I don’t apply my own 6/1+, ‘value’ logic to every race when I go to a meeting. Anyway, at around 5/2 that is as low as I would want to go here. He is Top rated by some way on Geegeez, is well drawn to attack, has been in form, and drops in trip. I am hoping he is fast enough for SDS to make all here. With any luck they don’t see which way he goes.

3.10 –

Time to head to the bar I suspect! I have no real idea and it looks to be between the top two on the ratings/market. Crowning Glory NR looks interesting on the speed figures and may get some change for interest.

3.40 –

Well this is more like it, but it looks another tricky puzzle.

Mishaal 2nd 25/1 is a TTP qualifier and I will have a small EW interest at that price. He is well handicapped again and is at least running into some kind of form. His draw is a concern but there is a fair amount of pace on paper in this and it may set up for a closer, which is rare around here. Robero WON 6/1>7/2 is also a stats qualifier and maybe I should just stick to those two. His draw is far from ideal and it could be all about the start- if he gets out fast he may be able to hold a position and may even make all. (his speed fig is big compared to other pace setters in this) Or he may get stuck 5 wide the whole way.

Bamber Bridge UP (weak enough in market)  is the real unknown quantity in this race and given the rest all seem exposed enough, maybe he is the answer on handicap debut for a yard that is flying. The market may no doubt guide and I will try and get a good look at him and see if he ‘looks’ fit- my paddock eyes still need work though.

4.10 –

No real thoughts here. Some decent yards represented from the South and no doubt one of them will pick this up. The market suggests the Godolphin horse is expected to go well.

4.40 –

A 3 year old only handicap- a punting graveyard if you play in these too often. Well, for me anyway. It could be on the soft side by the time of this and that would improve the chances of Edgar Allan Poe WON 2/1 even further, who does look the most obvious one in here. He is in form and based on that win LTO looks like he will still have something in hand. Experience of the Hamilton hill may help with the final climb here.

Hellomoto UP is interesting pace wise as there is a chance he goes forward here. The run the last day was after a near two month break and there is a chance he comes on for the run a bit. At what could be a nice price he may have some change to see if he can make all.

5.10 –

Mysterial WON 12/1 and Hernandoshideaway 3rd 8/1>7/2 are the two for me in here I think, for  track-side change (code for, I’m not that confident!)

The former has been running ok and drops back 2f which caught the eye. They will try and make all with him and if he can get out and across from wide could have every chance of doing so. He gets a visor for the first time as well. He may hate it or it may light him up too much, but at least he is doing a couple of things differently there. He is handicapped to win again.

Hernandoshideaway – comes here for Dods who is in fine recent form, as is this jockey. The horse is lightly enough raced and is 15lb below a class 3 win at the track in August 2015. He hasn’t raced too much since. At least there have been some signs of life on his last two starts. IF he can get away a bit more tidily and track the pace is 3rd/4th, he could be bang there at the death. It’s his second run in a tongue tie which always catches my eye – there is a theory that if  a horse has been swallowing their tongue, or for whatever reason has been hesitant in putting in a full effort, it may not be until the second/third run that you see more benefit. This is because when wearing the TT for the first time they are still not sure, mentally, whether putting in full effort still ‘hurts’ (blocked breathing), but as the race goes on they learn that it is much better. So, come the second time around there is no hesitation.  They know they can breathe/won’t ‘swallow’ their tongue, and off they go. It’s an idea anyway. Some logic there, if there has been a breathing problem. Or I am just talking nonsense, which happens from time to time.

**

Right, that little lot will do for me on a tricky day. £5s sprayed around like confetti no doubt but it will be a fun day out and i’m looking forward to catching up with my friends. I will do well to leave with the same amount of money I arrive with.

GL, esp if you follow in on any of those!

Josh

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

15 Comments

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  • I have a system on my HRB account
    Race Category All Weather
    Race Distance – Btw 6f & 2m
    Handicap or Non Handicap – Handicaps
    Weight – Btw 9-3 & 9-7
    Official Rating – Btw 43 & 50
    Sex – Male
    H-Runs (Any) – Btw 6 & 40
    Horses Last Race – most recent run
    Handicap or Non Handicap (LR) – Handicaps

    Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
    710 93 13.10% 175.75 250 35.21%
    Since 2003
    I think i got it from geegeez years ago.It’s always amazed me, esp on the big priced placers.

    It’s pulled out one tomorrow,that i felt compelled to share.

    3.55 Wolverhampton 7 Jazz Legend (USA) 12/1

    Just joined in form trainer olly murphy
    trying 7f for the 1st time
    Has form as a 2 year old that would blow these lot away.
    I Think worth a market check.(currently 12/1)

    mozzer 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Nicely ridden by Jimmy Quinn?…nicely covered up but handy…The gap appeared but couldn’t go through to win….I think it will though..for the notebook.

      Cheers ..Tony Mc.

      tonymc 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Is this system just for Wolverhampton Mozzer.??

      tonymc 2 weeks ago Reply


  • 2.25 Wolverhampton 6 furlong claimer
    2 point win Pushkin Museum 7/2 hills sky Ladbrokes

    Pushkin Museum has a bit to find at the weights but has a decent 7lb claimer on board to offset
    that.
    He has twice won over c/d and has the rails draw so if he can get a good early position
    looks sure to run well.

    Louis Vee, Glamsell and Noah Amor look out of it on ratings.

    Favourite Treat is best in but he has never run over 6 furlongs and may find himself tapped for speed

    Dream Ally ran a shocker last time as did Artic Angel and Point North and Elusivity
    are not getting any younger so are treated with caution

    Summary
    Tight little race but Pushkin Museum has solid recent form a decent draw
    and is a duel c/d winner and is the percentage play.

    Yesterdays review.
    one of Niseko legs must have fallen off as he drifted to 12/1 at the off
    and ran a shocker being completely tailed off taking the record to -6 points

    peter walker 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Andrew Mount produced some stats to follow stalls 1 and 2 at Ponty especially in handicaps I think at 1m 2f or less. Might be worth a look.

    Paul 2 weeks ago Reply


  • 3.40 Ponte. AVON BREEZE in foal won her first ever Cl3 overCD LTO. Good or G/S ground suits very well and she is drawn 1. Lewis Edmunds is 3-3 for stable at course and Whitaker is 1-3 last 14 days. Please put a fiver on and have a drink on me if she wins!!!

    Simon Van Zyl 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Have a good day out at Ponty Josh and say hi to Ben from me. (if you guys are having one of these in the future give me a shout in advance and I’ll try and pop up)

    nickmazur 2 weeks ago Reply


  • (from yesterday)

    3.40 Pontefract (Tuesday)
    King Richard III Handicap,6f.

    Last 11 winners coming from 129 runners.

    Never run at Pontefract before: 1/52
    Latest two runs, NO place: 0/55
    Latest three runs, NO top 2: 1/60

    Latest run, NO top 8: 1/30
    Handicap wins, 0-1: 1/35
    Last win, NOT Class 3-4: 1/32
    Last win, NOT 6f: 1/39

    Leaves Avon Breeze (13/2) and Mishaal (16/1) as ticking every box. Drifted to 9/1 and 20/1 respectively now.

    Looking at just the top 3 strongest looking stats then Tavener (6/1) and Cool Bahamian (10/1 to 5/1 last night, now settle at 7/1) pass those too.

    Hannon seems to be doing well with runners in first time cheekpieces/blinkers.
    Since taking over from his father in 2014 he has 24% strike rate, +75 BFSP. This year it is 30% strike rate, +21 BFSP.
    He has one such runner in the 8.15 Brighton (Tuesday), Royal Peace, 11/2 available.

    Chris Baxendale 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Nice place on Mishaal Chris…25/1…i done a saver on Roberro…so a nice bet. Cheers mate.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Josh,
    In the 5f sprint might be worth having a close eye on Whiteandgold in the prelims. Has been a bit of a monkey in the past – ‘reluctant to enter stalls’, ‘gave problems loading’,’restless in stalls’ some of the comments from last couple of runs. Been given a long enough break. What stood out was her last 5f run, the market rated her chances similar to the winner that day who is now rated 95 and been running in group company!

    Have a good day!

    Chris Baxendale 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Lincoln Rocks just gone in….a good price, was in the weekend stats.??/

    tonymc 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Well remembered, it was mentioned in the Haydock race on Fri night.

      Chris Baxendale 2 weeks ago Reply


      • Cheers Chris….Tony Mc.

        tonymc 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Looks like you’ll be having an ok day Josh. Best of.

    Just a heads up for the 5.45. El Borracho goes for Simon Dow. Not likely today, but he is better than he has shown so far. Certainly has not been asked to do more than learn how to race. One to see what Harry Bentley does with him today or follow in nurseries.
    He’s 25’s and looking at Simon Dow’s past winners would need to be on 4th run or more sub 16’s.
    Hugh

    alpha2 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Well maybe El Barracho was hanging a bit but was he really ridden to get best possible position? Looks like one for a soft nursery before too long, most likely on the aw.

      alpha2 2 weeks ago Reply


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