TIPS
4.15 Perth
Marlee Massie – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) UP 16/1
Castletown Bridge – 1 point win – 22/1, 20/1 (general) UR 33s
Hmm. Well I shouldn’t have bothered but never mind. The market told the story there. I wasn’t close to the winner albeit did note the headgear switch, I didn’t think he would be good enough/questions over his consistency, but he has done that well. He was a big price this morning, 25s or so. Moving on, swiftly.
Shortlist: Double Whammy / Shanroe Street / Bindon Mill / Optimistic Bias
Well this is a right old puzzle and in truth I have little confidence that I am anywhere near to solving it! I should probably have left it but can rarely resist such races even when they give me a headache. This race is full of horses trying this kind of trip for the first time and quite a few lightly raced chasers also. And they all seem fairly moderate. Something will step forward here, and it may be one of these two. I have gone for a couple of pokes…
Marlee Massie- well the trainer won this in 2014 and this horse looks like he is worth a go at this kind of trip- it could bring out plenty more from him. He is in form and has rarely run a bad race in recent weeks. He can often get out-paced before rallying/plugging on. The only niggle is the ground- it is an unknown over fences. Clearly he handles much softer but he has some decent hurdle runs on a sound surface and at a double figure price I thought I would take a chance. The trip could be more important. It could be he just won’t handle the going it but if he does, I think he may relish the last few furlongs here. As they say, only one way to find out.
Castletown Bridge – clearly a punt but he is lightly raced over fences and seems like he must have decent ground. I think a line can be put through his last run, and possibly the one before which in any case was a novice chase. The two Musselburgh runs were ok- a win in a 3 runner race, and that 24f run- well he got outpaced but rallied turning for home and came back on the bridle for a time, before plodding home the one pace. He has also run some decent enough races at the track over hurdles. I think he will relish the ground and there is a chance he may relish the trip. His price made me want to roll the dice. It could be he is just badly out of form and in any case won’t stay. But, I couldn’t quite leave him at 22s.
Of the rest… well Double Whammy looks like he has been set up for this having won it last year. He did catch the eye a bit LTO, travelling like the winner heading for home before finding little. They may have left a bit to work on. But, he is 11 and at 11/2 I was happy to leave him/take him on. Shanroe Street – well Russell knows how to train a staying chaser as we know, but she is only 1/41 in c3 handicap chases here in the last 5 years and 1/35 with all handicap chasers in the last 2. That put me off a tad and I think were he to relish this trip he should have been pulling away over 27f LTO, maybe. But he is lightly raced and may relish it. This is also only his 4th chase start and he has yet to win one- that lack of experience niggled at me a little. If you like him there isn’t too much for me to say to put you off.
Bindon Mill is unexposed but was a bit too poor LTO I think and is usually held up. I don’t know, at 8s I wasn’t jumping up and down to back him. Fast ground is a bit of an unknown with him as well and that race he won 2 starts ago hasn’t worked out very well. Optimistic Bias is another unexposed one over fences. I don’t know how strong his form is and decided I didn’t like that run at Huntingdon over a marathon trip, I would have liked to have seen more. His last race fell apart a bit, only 2 really finished and some of his jumping was scratchy – at the pace they may go on this ground, that was a niggle. All in the context of him being 7s, again, not a price I wanted to take.
I should mention Nakadam- 7s is ok but he has just become a bit disappointing and has had plenty of chances. He also has to prove he will like going RH- he may do. He is another who could relish the trip but I will leave him here. I struggles to make a case for any others really.
This just feels open and you can make a case for a few. I don’t think you can be confident on anything in here, which is why I wanted double figure prices.
We shall see how these two get on.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
A King (16/1<)
1.40 Donc – City Dreamer
**
That is all for this post.
16 Responses
Ardamir 5.40 Don not a A King flat qualifier?
11/4 going. Not exciting odds, but last run on AW suggests he should perhaps be fav – would’ve won with a clear run and was poorly positioned in the shake-up in an evenly run race
Hi Ali, I think I may have tinkered with the original rules a bit, and the 90 day rules.. 0-1 run last 90 days.
Josh
hi josh. can you checked why i have been charged £12.50. I did sign up for £10.00 previously.
Hi Danny, I will have a look and email you- but it can only be because you signed up to the 21 day trial > £12.50 per month, either by design of accident, system doesn’t do anything like that automatically/or with my input. If you left and then joined again that would be why but I will have a look shortly. Josh
I have just emailed you Danny. You had signed up to the new plan, as well as still being on your original one. I have cancelled the £12.50 pm and refunded the payment that came out yesterday. You are on the £10 PM option for as long as you remain a member. Josh
at Beverley yesterday it was nice to see even a bookie can get it completely wrong, in the second race one on course bookie opened up with Emilia James @5-6 and got hammered before he could drop the price, backed in to 4-9 after the race he just packed up and went home looking very depressed.
Morning Josh,
Maybe I am wrong but I thought LTO Nakadam was the best horse in the race but Cook won it with the best ride. 7s is getting skinny although 17/2 was a little better. Very unlikely me to be going for the young unexposed one I know. Vertigo has clearly messed with my head! You might be right about the right handed part we shall see.
Regards
Nick
Yep I was on the fence with him- think because I have a couple of mental scars from backing him before- RH is more an unknown, than a definite negative- he is unexposed,esp over this trip, and maybe it is what he needs. The PU at Carlisle was nothing to do with RH- he was never at the races that day I don’t think. He has as good a chance as any, maybe he will make 7s look good but I like to have a confident feeling when going 7< and I didn't with him, for whatever reason. You may well have the winner. We shall see. GL
Yeah I remember you tipping him up although in hindsight Smith was in absolutely shocking form than if I recall and that race has turned out to be one of the hotter class 4 3m+ handicap Chases this season particularly in the north. Guess we shall see. On all three so good luck to us.
Glad to see that you too can make a case for Castletown Bridge; I was on early but think its better value with 2 NRs.
Shanroe Street fits the bill for me. Conditions to suit, nicely handicapped and fresh so I think it’s not a bad bet. Had 8/1 last night, it was better this morning 12/1 at the pick but I’m happy with 8/1. I agree with Josh that it’s a pretty open race and you can’t really reject many of them.
Yep I won’t be putting you off him, unexposed>could relish the step up- connections must think he will and they know a staying chaser when they see one. Has raced on the pace also which is never a bad thing in a chase if they go sensible. Hopefully one of us has the winner on here, 4 horses covered so far.
We did well then 🙂
Let’s move on quickly from that race, awful. Had that kind of feel. Put Boric down as a possible pace angle, but that was about it. This was a fairly moderate race in truth but he wasn’t high up on my list- and neither were the 2nd or 3rd. One to forget.
TOP CAT HENRY 4.50 Perth
Put in the race as favourite in the papers this morning and while he is the top rated horse
I can’t see why he is thought a possible winner.
this race is over 3 miles and his record in races further than 2miles 5furlongs read
9/19 beaten 30 lengths at Listowel 3 miles
9/18 beaten a distance at Clonmel 3 miles
6/10 beaten 40l tramore 2m7f
pulled up Kilbeggan 3m1f
and beaten a distance in a 3m2f hunter chase won by Wonderful charm.
horses who are doubtful stayers can win if they are downgraded and the race is run at a crawl
but today there are three c/d winners in the field and several others who have won over 3 miles
Mister Jourdain won this race last year and runs from the front so there will be no hanging about
The winner of this race will have to get three miles and unless Top cat has found some stamina
now he has reached 9 he has little chance
I think he could even struggle to hit the frame
and at a quick estimate of his chances he should be a 6/1 chance minimum
the fact that he is 3/1 on betfair makes him look a lay.
even if you don’t like laying for big liabilities if you take him out of the equation
it make all the others value
Nice read, mate