Members Club: Results Update End March (complete)

Members Club Results Update/Review…

Results for Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17 for 2017 to date, up to the end of March. 

 

PART 1

1.All Qualifiers

-PDF of all results: CLICK HERE>>>

-Excel Spreadsheet: CLICK HERE>>>

 

(BFSP results that follow take account of 5% commission)

 

Results 

Backing all qualifiers in section 1 of Members Daily Posts, 1 point win

  • March: 227 bets / 41 wins / 18% win SR / +90 points Early/BOG / +50 BFSP 
  • 2017 to Date as of End of March: 681 bets / 97 wins / 14% win SR / +120 points Early/BOG / +93 BFSP / 14% Return On Investment BFSP
  • In 2016, from Oct to end of year backing ‘All Qualifiers’ made +65.77 points. So, a total of +159 points or so. That is the foundation…

 

2. #1 Advised Strategy: ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+’ 

Results 

  • March: 25 bets / 4 wins / +36.1 BFSP 
  • 2017 to date as of End of March: 81 bets / 11 wins / 14% win SR / +85.05 BFSP / 105% Return On Investment 
  • Losing Runs: Of 5,9,6 in March. A 15% win SR means you will hit losing runs of 43 every 1000 bets or so, and clearly anything in between which can happen multiple times. A 100 point bank should be more than sufficient if you follow this approach systematically. 

As a comparison this means that all Non Ratings Pointers 10/1+ Quals are..

219 bets / 17 wins / 8% win sr / +56 BFSP / 25% ROI

 

3. All Qualifiers ’10/1+ ‘ 

Results 

  • March: 78 bets / 10 wins / +54 points BFSP 
  • 2017 to date as of End of March: 300 bets / 28 wins / 9% win SR / +141.4 BFSP / 47% Return On Investment 
  • Losing Runs: Those of 5 or more losers in March: 6,16,23,7,10 

 

4.Saturdays 

Results All Qualifiers 

  • March: 49 bets / 10 wins / +1 BFSP 
  • 2017 to date as of End of March: 173 bets / 30 wins / 17% sr / +146.42 BFSP / 84% Return On Investment 

 

Results All Qualifiers On Saturdays ’10/1+’ 

  • Total 2017 to date as of End of March (12 Race Days): 92 bets / 9 wins / 10% win SR / +95.5 BFSP / 104% Return On Investment 
  • Losing Runs 5+ : 6,12,10,14,21… (current losing run of 21, although if counting Summer Jumps that ended on Sat with 18/1 winner)

 

Results All ‘Ratings Pointers’ Horses On Saturdays (any odds) 

  • March: 6/25, +1 BFSP
  • 2017 to date as of End of March (12 Race Days): 69 bets / 15 wins / 22% win SR / +46 BFSP / 66% Return On Investment

 

5.All Qualifiers 20/1+

I thought I would take a look at the ‘monster’ priced ones…

Results 

  • 2017 to date as of End of March: 143 bets / 6 wins / 4% win SR / +13 BFSP / 9% Return On Investment 

Results All Qualifiers On Saturdays ’20/1+’ (BFSP)

  • 2017 to date as of End of March: 48 bets / 3 wins / 6% win SR/ +66 BFSP 
  • Losing Runs: Currently on one of 35. 

 

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PART 2

The Ratings Pointers: A Closer Look

Results Spreadsheet: Click HERE>>>

Results

(all results 2017 to date as of end March)

All Ratings Pointers: 321 bets / 62 wins / 19% sr / +58 early|bog / +58 BFSP / 18% ROI

As a comparison this means that all ‘non ratings pointers’ qualifiers are:-

360 bets / 35 wins / 10% win sr / +62 early|bog / +35 BFSP / 10% ROI

 

Geegeez Speed vs HorseRaceBase

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated: 80 bets / 19 wins / +30 Early|bog / +19 BFSP

Top 3 (2nd or 3rd) 127 bets / 22 wins / +54 early|bog / +56 BFSP

Total: 207 bets / 41 wins / 20% sr / +84 early|bog / +75 BFSP

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated: 70 bets / 20 wins / +6.5 early|bog / -1 BFSP

Top 3 (2nd or 3rd): 148 bets / 23 wins / +4 early|bog / -8 BFSP

Total: 218 bets / 43 wins / +20% sr / +10.5 early / -9 BFSP

 

Ratings Pointers 10/1+ 

Firstly this looks at those that only qualified against one ratings set, no ‘double qualifiers’…

Geegeez Speed

Total: 47 bets / 7 wins / +44 early|bog / +61 BFSP

HorseRaceBase

Total: 24 bets / 1 win / -14 early|bog / -19 BFSP

Combined/double rated (so when a horse hits both Geegeez + HRB)

10 bets / 3 wins / +31 early|bog / +32 BFSP

 

Analysis: Indications at this stage suggest that Geegez Speed ratings are the place to focus and that backing any stand along HorseRaceBase ratings is questionable, given the profits/ROIs, or lack off.

For the ‘RP10/1+’ strategy the place to focus seems to be on all Geegeez Rated Horses, + any that are also HorseRaceBase rated. (so ‘double rated’)

Stripping out those HRB only qualifiers leaves: 57 bets / 10 wins / 18% win SR / +75 early|bog / +93 BFSP

At this stage though, a total of 24 bets for stand alone HRB ratings 10/1+,  isn’t enough to go on to make a firm decision.

Given ALL RATINGS POINTERS made profits of +58 points early|bog and +61 BFSP, from 331 odd bets, it is clear that the place to focus is the ‘RP 10/1+’ strategy, in terms of backing something systematically.

All 10/1+ … we know that backing all 10/1+ qualifiers made around +141 points, which is around + 50 points above those that were Ratings Pointers horses.

It would appear the best systematic strategy is the ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+’ approach. From that base you/I can look at other qualifiers, especially those 10/1+, and on Saturdays as with the other info above.

 

All ‘double rated’ Qualifiers

Looking at those horses that had both a Geegeez Speed and a HRB Rating… (all odds)

91 bets / 21 wins/ +37 early|bog / +26 BFSP

Given just the 10 qualifiers that were 10/1+ are +31 / +32 BFSP  there may not be much in that.

However, if you wanted some more action you could focus on ratings pointers horses, double qualified, 6/1+

Those results are: 31 bets / 9 wins / +56 early|bog / +46 BFSP.

That would have found you 6 more winners, and some more profit, not covered by the ‘RP 10/1+’ angle.

Those under 6/1… 12/60, -19.

Under 6/1 BFSP

A final point that those Ratings Pointers sent off under 6/1 BFSP generally just cover themselves…

180 bets / 46 wins / -7 BFSP

So, if you want more action, you could just back all Ratings Pointers Horses at 6/1+ (7.00+) on BFSP, and you can set that the night before. That would improve the bottom line BFSP to +68 for all ratings pointers, massively driving up the ROI..

141 bets / 16 wins / +68 BFSP/ 48% ROI, which compares to all ratings pointers… 321 bets / 62 wins / +58 BFSP / 18% ROI

Some food for thought.

 

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The ’10/1′ + Strategy Explained

This is for those who are still unclear as to when a horse qualifies and how I record results…

#1 Advised Strategy: ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+ Strategy’ 

When Does A Horse Qualify? 

  1. Horse is listed in section 1 of the Members Daily Posts: All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers’ 
  2. Horse is a ‘ratings pointer’ horse indicated by one of the following red symbols: H1,H3,G1,G3
  3. PRICE: A horse then qualifiers if they tick one of the following:-
    • The horse is 10/1 or bigger as declared on the post by myself – this is the price detailed next to the horse around 8am/9am on the day. If their price is 10/1 or bigger at that point, they qualify and are recorded in my results. Or…
    • AND/OR the horse is sent off 11.00 or bigger BFSP, or 10/1+ Best Odds Guaranteed. This approach covers those horses that may be under 10/1 when I declare their price in the morning, but that may drift into qualifying range. You can use the ‘Set SP Odds Limit’ box on Betfair to set the price of 11.00 as a minimum. 

And that’s it. (The approach in number 3 above… ‘All Qualifiers 10/1+’…is the same as above, just missing out step 2 in relation to the Ratings Pointers)

Now, you can clearly back a horse at a time that suits you, and if they are 10/1+  the evening then back them, either taking a price or to BFSP. I record the prices on the Members Posts in the morning to maintain consistency and to declare a price that I deem widely available. This is usually with 2+ main bookmakers as listed on Oddschecker. All results are recorded to BFSP. By recording a price in the morning I have missed winners that were 10/1+ the evening before but were never bigger than 7s on the day of racing, for example. I don’t think there will ever be a big disparity here, if you bet at a time that suits you. You may do even better! 

I hope that makes sense. It is easy enough once you get used to the approach and it isn’t an exact science but is as close to a ‘system’ as we will get. 

This is the #1 Advised Strategy – the one ‘systematic’ approach I think we should all follow as a minimum. It will be the least stressful and still has the best ‘Return on Investment’ figures.  We are betting with the confidence that the methodology behind my stats research, HorseRaceBase ratings, and Geegeez Speed ratings will not be changing. There is no logical reason why the results to date wont repeat over time although of course there will be the odd bump in the road. 

From this foundation you/we can decide how to approach any other qualifiers or other ‘ratings pointers’ horses. The analysis of ratings pointers above, which is to follow, may give you some further ideas. 

You will see that on Saturdays the ’10/1+’ approach may be of interest. 

The content is there for you to use how you please with the aim of plotting a profitable route forwards. 

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Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Jumps + Flat 2017

To NOTE: The Summer Jumps started off well on Saturday with an 18/1 winner and in theory they should perform in a similar vien to their ‘winter’ cousin, which all results discussed above are based on. 

Flat 2017: Well the template for this is new to an extent and I have never tracked these in live play. So, do treat them with caution. Only real time qualifiers will reveal if this approach will work on the flat. In any case, what with the Summer Jumps and my ‘big meeting trainer stats’ there will be plenty of content for the Flat etc. We should have a good feel within a couple of months, come mid July, if we are onto a winner. 

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Why Not Join Today?

If you’re not a member and are reading this, amazed and excited at those profit levels, join us today and take a 21 Day Free Trial of my Members Club HERE>>>

Within those 21 days you should know if it is for you or not. This is not a  ‘tipping’ service as such and although there is a main ‘advised strategy’ as above, and my own ‘advice’, there is plenty of opportunity for you to bring your own thoughts into the mix, and use the information that I provide to profit from this great game of ours. You will also have an enjoyable time if you like your stats reports, trainer stats and big race trends/stats, as well as other micro angles etc. Plenty to get stuck into.

Oh, and community is rather important. One big happy punting family, all trying to make this game as enjoyable and profitable as possible, from £2 punters through to £50 players. We all enjoy sharing in each other’s success.

See you on the inside 🙂 (take your free trial HERE>>>)

(p.s – if you are after a quick win, are impatient, or won’t bother using the trial period for what it is meant for, then don’t bother- it won’t be for you. Serious punters only need apply- those that understand this is a long term game, that we will back more losers than winners, many more. It’s long term profit that matters, and entertainment)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. Mighty impressive Josh. Maybe worth making the results update posts available to everyone and not just members? If I was a casual reader I’d certainly be tempted to pay a small subscription if I saw results like this.

    Also, have you got separate results for the ratings qualifiers on Saturdays?

    1. hi Neil, yep this post is available to all.. I will advertise it at some point. Yep, why wouldn’t you take a 21 day free trial and then just £12.50 pm! haha.

      Ah yes…

      Ratings Pointers Saturdays… (any odds etc)

      6/25, + 1 BFSP in March

      2017 to date: 15/69, +46 BFSP… to actually backing ‘all ratings pointers’ on Saturday’s may be the time to back them, rather than just all the time.. certainly if you want ‘action’ on a Saturday.

      Will update above, and also need to look at which ratings pointers do best.. got a feeling backing all Geegeez top rated (G1) is another ‘set and forget’ micro system.

      Josh

  2. Josh – didn’t get to read this until today and notice that the stats exclude Festival results – how significant an impact if you add those in for completeness of records?

    1. Hi, – there were no festival stats during festival week – my trainer track profile for Cheltenham deliberately excluded the Festival. These results above are just for the stats, they don’t include any ‘tips’ or other content, only qualifiers against the jumps stats pack – of which there werr none for the Cheltenham Festival.
      Josh

  3. Hi Josh,

    I wondered what your thoughts were on the profitability of backing RP10/1+ ew as opposed to just win selections. I’ve been backing selections EW and seemingly this does not ssem to be anywhere near as profitable. Have you got any views on this?

    Cheers

    1. Hey,
      I don’t have any data as such to back up my opinion- although record all win and placed horses etc, so it won’t be hard for me to go through to see how many RP10/1+ placed, in addition to winners- as a % guide.

      EW betting is always a tricky one and for me has more to do with your psychology. In simple profit terms I would be shocked, at the odds we play at, if EW betting ever bettered/got near to 1 point win only profits. – Esp if betting 1/2 point EW for example.

      But, some punters prefer a more regular return, and if that keeps them engaged, then it is the best approach. If you can stand the odd losing run, runs of 10-15 are regular, we will hit 25-40 every now and then, win only is the way to go I think.

      I would be interesting in your figures.

      I did look at my ‘tipping’ one year. When horses were 20s+ etc I used to tip 1/2 point EW. When I looked over my figures I would have made a substantial amount more if I had just stuck to 1 point win. The profits really get boosted when we land on the 16/1+ winners, and you really want at least 1 point on the win side.

      I do not think, of the top of my head, that we have enough 20/1+ placed horses to probably make EW betting get nearer the level of win only. I suspect the placed horses cover at best those unplaced ones, and you are diluting the profits on the winners, if you bet 1/2 point EW say.

      Staking, win only versus EW, is a personal preference. I can personally withstand long baron spells as I have confidence in myself/approach long term. Some want to get something back more regularly.

      I will have a look and see what % place, as in truth I don’t know, and I should look!

      Sorry, a lot of fence sitting there, but there is no right or wrong. This game isn’t just about profit- which is irrelevant if betting win only say made you stop following when a long losing run came.

      I would certainly advise having 1 point on the win side at all times, but there then may be place options. Will see what the figures throw up.
      Josh

      1. Hi Josh. Wondered if you’ve done the analysis on EW v Win only bets? I must admit I’ve been using EW bets on 4s to 5s+ to gain some confidence first but would be interested to know if Win only would’ve given better results. Cheers Ken

        1. Hi Ken, no I haven’t as yet, i decided to wait until I did the April review which will be next week (this week as of Monday). I will have a good look and see what it throws up, esp place % etc. Josh

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