Results for Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17 for 2017 to date, up to the end of March.
-PDF of all results: CLICK HERE>>>
-Excel Spreadsheet: CLICK HERE>>>
(BFSP results that follow take account of 5% commission)
Backing all qualifiers in section 1 of Members Daily Posts, 1 point win
- March: 227 bets / 41 wins / 18% win SR / +90 points Early/BOG / +50 BFSP
- 2017 to Date as of End of March: 681 bets / 97 wins / 14% win SR / +120 points Early/BOG / +93 BFSP / 14% Return On Investment BFSP
- In 2016, from Oct to end of year backing ‘All Qualifiers’ made +65.77 points. So, a total of +159 points or so. That is the foundation…
2. #1 Advised Strategy: ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+’
- March: 25 bets / 4 wins / +36.1 BFSP
- 2017 to date as of End of March: 81 bets / 11 wins / 14% win SR / +85.05 BFSP / 105% Return On Investment
- Losing Runs: Of 5,9,6 in March. A 15% win SR means you will hit losing runs of 43 every 1000 bets or so, and clearly anything in between which can happen multiple times. A 100 point bank should be more than sufficient if you follow this approach systematically.
As a comparison this means that all Non Ratings Pointers 10/1+ Quals are..
219 bets / 17 wins / 8% win sr / +56 BFSP / 25% ROI
3. All Qualifiers ’10/1+ ‘
- March: 78 bets / 10 wins / +54 points BFSP
- 2017 to date as of End of March: 300 bets / 28 wins / 9% win SR / +141.4 BFSP / 47% Return On Investment
- Losing Runs: Those of 5 or more losers in March: 6,16,23,7,10
Results All Qualifiers
- March: 49 bets / 10 wins / +1 BFSP
- 2017 to date as of End of March: 173 bets / 30 wins / 17% sr / +146.42 BFSP / 84% Return On Investment
Results All Qualifiers On Saturdays ’10/1+’
- Total 2017 to date as of End of March (12 Race Days): 92 bets / 9 wins / 10% win SR / +95.5 BFSP / 104% Return On Investment
- Losing Runs 5+ : 6,12,10,14,21… (current losing run of 21, although if counting Summer Jumps that ended on Sat with 18/1 winner)
Results All ‘Ratings Pointers’ Horses On Saturdays (any odds)
- March: 6/25, +1 BFSP
- 2017 to date as of End of March (12 Race Days): 69 bets / 15 wins / 22% win SR / +46 BFSP / 66% Return On Investment
5.All Qualifiers 20/1+
I thought I would take a look at the ‘monster’ priced ones…
- 2017 to date as of End of March: 143 bets / 6 wins / 4% win SR / +13 BFSP / 9% Return On Investment
Results All Qualifiers On Saturdays ’20/1+’ (BFSP)
- 2017 to date as of End of March: 48 bets / 3 wins / 6% win SR/ +66 BFSP
- Losing Runs: Currently on one of 35.
The Ratings Pointers: A Closer Look
Results Spreadsheet: Click HERE>>>
(all results 2017 to date as of end March)
All Ratings Pointers: 321 bets / 62 wins / 19% sr / +58 early|bog / +58 BFSP / 18% ROI
As a comparison this means that all ‘non ratings pointers’ qualifiers are:-
360 bets / 35 wins / 10% win sr / +62 early|bog / +35 BFSP / 10% ROI
Geegeez Speed vs HorseRaceBase
Top Rated: 80 bets / 19 wins / +30 Early|bog / +19 BFSP
Top 3 (2nd or 3rd) 127 bets / 22 wins / +54 early|bog / +56 BFSP
Total: 207 bets / 41 wins / 20% sr / +84 early|bog / +75 BFSP
Top Rated: 70 bets / 20 wins / +6.5 early|bog / -1 BFSP
Top 3 (2nd or 3rd): 148 bets / 23 wins / +4 early|bog / -8 BFSP
Total: 218 bets / 43 wins / +20% sr / +10.5 early / -9 BFSP
Ratings Pointers 10/1+
Firstly this looks at those that only qualified against one ratings set, no ‘double qualifiers’…
Total: 47 bets / 7 wins / +44 early|bog / +61 BFSP
Total: 24 bets / 1 win / -14 early|bog / -19 BFSP
Combined/double rated (so when a horse hits both Geegeez + HRB)
10 bets / 3 wins / +31 early|bog / +32 BFSP
Analysis: Indications at this stage suggest that Geegez Speed ratings are the place to focus and that backing any stand along HorseRaceBase ratings is questionable, given the profits/ROIs, or lack off.
For the ‘RP10/1+’ strategy the place to focus seems to be on all Geegeez Rated Horses, + any that are also HorseRaceBase rated. (so ‘double rated’)
Stripping out those HRB only qualifiers leaves: 57 bets / 10 wins / 18% win SR / +75 early|bog / +93 BFSP
At this stage though, a total of 24 bets for stand alone HRB ratings 10/1+, isn’t enough to go on to make a firm decision.
Given ALL RATINGS POINTERS made profits of +58 points early|bog and +61 BFSP, from 331 odd bets, it is clear that the place to focus is the ‘RP 10/1+’ strategy, in terms of backing something systematically.
All 10/1+ … we know that backing all 10/1+ qualifiers made around +141 points, which is around + 50 points above those that were Ratings Pointers horses.
It would appear the best systematic strategy is the ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+’ approach. From that base you/I can look at other qualifiers, especially those 10/1+, and on Saturdays as with the other info above.
All ‘double rated’ Qualifiers
Looking at those horses that had both a Geegeez Speed and a HRB Rating… (all odds)
91 bets / 21 wins/ +37 early|bog / +26 BFSP
Given just the 10 qualifiers that were 10/1+ are +31 / +32 BFSP there may not be much in that.
However, if you wanted some more action you could focus on ratings pointers horses, double qualified, 6/1+
Those results are: 31 bets / 9 wins / +56 early|bog / +46 BFSP.
That would have found you 6 more winners, and some more profit, not covered by the ‘RP 10/1+’ angle.
Those under 6/1… 12/60, -19.
Under 6/1 BFSP
A final point that those Ratings Pointers sent off under 6/1 BFSP generally just cover themselves…
180 bets / 46 wins / -7 BFSP
So, if you want more action, you could just back all Ratings Pointers Horses at 6/1+ (7.00+) on BFSP, and you can set that the night before. That would improve the bottom line BFSP to +68 for all ratings pointers, massively driving up the ROI..
141 bets / 16 wins / +68 BFSP/ 48% ROI, which compares to all ratings pointers… 321 bets / 62 wins / +58 BFSP / 18% ROI
Some food for thought.
The ’10/1′ + Strategy Explained
This is for those who are still unclear as to when a horse qualifies and how I record results…
#1 Advised Strategy: ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+ Strategy’
When Does A Horse Qualify?
- Horse is listed in section 1 of the Members Daily Posts: ‘All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers’
- Horse is a ‘ratings pointer’ horse indicated by one of the following red symbols: H1,H3,G1,G3
- PRICE: A horse then qualifiers if they tick one of the following:-
- The horse is 10/1 or bigger as declared on the post by myself – this is the price detailed next to the horse around 8am/9am on the day. If their price is 10/1 or bigger at that point, they qualify and are recorded in my results. Or…
- AND/OR the horse is sent off 11.00 or bigger BFSP, or 10/1+ Best Odds Guaranteed. This approach covers those horses that may be under 10/1 when I declare their price in the morning, but that may drift into qualifying range. You can use the ‘Set SP Odds Limit’ box on Betfair to set the price of 11.00 as a minimum.
And that’s it. (The approach in number 3 above… ‘All Qualifiers 10/1+’…is the same as above, just missing out step 2 in relation to the Ratings Pointers)
Now, you can clearly back a horse at a time that suits you, and if they are 10/1+ the evening then back them, either taking a price or to BFSP. I record the prices on the Members Posts in the morning to maintain consistency and to declare a price that I deem widely available. This is usually with 2+ main bookmakers as listed on Oddschecker. All results are recorded to BFSP. By recording a price in the morning I have missed winners that were 10/1+ the evening before but were never bigger than 7s on the day of racing, for example. I don’t think there will ever be a big disparity here, if you bet at a time that suits you. You may do even better!
I hope that makes sense. It is easy enough once you get used to the approach and it isn’t an exact science but is as close to a ‘system’ as we will get.
This is the #1 Advised Strategy – the one ‘systematic’ approach I think we should all follow as a minimum. It will be the least stressful and still has the best ‘Return on Investment’ figures. We are betting with the confidence that the methodology behind my stats research, HorseRaceBase ratings, and Geegeez Speed ratings will not be changing. There is no logical reason why the results to date wont repeat over time although of course there will be the odd bump in the road.
From this foundation you/we can decide how to approach any other qualifiers or other ‘ratings pointers’ horses. The analysis of ratings pointers above, which is to follow, may give you some further ideas.
You will see that on Saturdays the ’10/1+’ approach may be of interest.
The content is there for you to use how you please with the aim of plotting a profitable route forwards.
Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Jumps + Flat 2017
To NOTE: The Summer Jumps started off well on Saturday with an 18/1 winner and in theory they should perform in a similar vien to their ‘winter’ cousin, which all results discussed above are based on.
Flat 2017: Well the template for this is new to an extent and I have never tracked these in live play. So, do treat them with caution. Only real time qualifiers will reveal if this approach will work on the flat. In any case, what with the Summer Jumps and my ‘big meeting trainer stats’ there will be plenty of content for the Flat etc. We should have a good feel within a couple of months, come mid July, if we are onto a winner.
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