Ahhh. Well. A decent two days at Aintree, I can’t complain. Official ‘Tips’ are showing a profit of +12 points and I would have taken that going into Day 3. Rather Be won as I hoped he would, and thankfully, to my eyes at least, Jonjo’s grey in second is a bit of a monkey when it comes to a battle. I had a good go at The World’s End when he hit 10/3 in places, mentioned in dispatches, as well as an EW on the 3rd in that race. He added to ‘at the races’ profits from Flying Angel (15/2) and Dineur (25/1) mentioned in the notes. The Topham… well the stats worked, the ‘shortlist’ of 8 highlighted the 50/1 winner (94 BFSP!) and the 100/1>66/1 3rd. I am not annoyed I didn’t ‘tip’ them as such, given the shortlist wasn’t so short. A bit different to Flying Tiger who was on a ‘bombproof’ stats shortlist of 3 at Cheltenham. Clearly I didn’t make a case for them. I am more annoyed I didn’t throw £5 at the winner on the machine, just in case. But I didn’t. Not a penny on. But, I can’t be greedy. The pins will land on enough of those over time. My unique approach to ‘the stats’ seems to be working when it comes to shortlisting. That means we always have hope. I’m glad some of you had a nibble.
The Grand National
Saphir Du Rheu – 1/2 point EW, +1/2 point win (or 1 point win,1/2 place) 22/1 (general)
Thunder And Roses – 1/2 point EW, +1/2 point win – 33/1 (general)
Blacklion – 1 point win – 14/1, 16/1 (general) (BFSP may be best,unless want to use an offer of sorts)
(4 points total)
I have a shocking record in this race in the 9 years or so I have been a racing nut, although i did go close with Sunnyhillboy. That is the closest I have come. Having said that I have never attacked it quite like this so we shall see.
Anyway, stats wise, you know they are on the shortlist of 10 as below.
Saphir De Rheu – on my stats I cannot fault him, at all. I have used a few other filters looking at those 10 and he doesn’t fall down on anything at all, from what I can see. I may have missed something of course. It is then just a question of whether he jumps around and he stays- but you can say that for most of the field really. He may fall. He may clout the first. Or, this kind of test makes him put in the best display of his career- and that Gold Cup run was decent. He races prominently enough and if he can get into a rhythm he could run a big race. It would be fitting for Nicholls to win the trainer’s championship by winning this pot.
Thunder And Roses– well he ticks a lot of boxes and the fact he wears cheekpieces is the only ‘negative’, but he is used to them and has run well in big fields with them on. He is an Irish National winner and I would be surprised if a lack of stamina is what finds him out here. He races prominently which is a positive and with any luck can hold a position on this ground. They will have watered (sprinkler system over the whole National Course) and at these kind of prices I won’t leave one on a ground niggle alone. He has good form on yielding and I don’t think that will be an excuse. He races in the Becher chase in 2015 and tried to take one fence with him so we shall see. He is with a master trainer now though and we know he can prepare one for this test. We had Leighton winning two on the spin, is it now the turn of Morris. Anyway he ticks plenty of boxes and if he has an error free round + usual luck in running I would hope he is in the top 5.
Blacklion– well he falls down on not having had 5+ handicap chase runs- but Many Clouds broke that duck, now 1/111, and given this race is becoming more classy, that is just the kind of stat that may mean nothing in another few years. Anyway, that is his only negative, if it is one at all. He ticks plenty of boxes and does have a touch of class. He has looked like a go at a marathon trip could bring out more in him. Twister knows how to win this race, having done so twice in the last 20 years and this prominent racer could go well. Again, the fences are an unknown but he is a decent jumper of a regulation fence. He is small enough I suppose but does have the heart of a lion and if it is obvious he has taken to the fences, he should be thereabouts, at least until 4 miles or so, then who knows.
Of the rest… well I dare say I will throw £2.5s and £5s at a few on the shortlist that are massive prices.
The likes of Cause of Casuses and Lord Windamere are usually proper hold up rides/not quick enough to race prominently. That is a big negative around here for me, esp on decent ground where they will go fairly hard and a few in the front third never really stop. At 14s I was happy to leave CofC but he may go close. He ran poorly in this as a 7 year old a couple of years back. Tenor Nivernais falls down on the ‘no run over 25.5f+’ stat,and no win over 25f+. Despite his big price I am going to say he wont stay! (Still £2 BFSP I suspect!) Likewise Houblon hasn’t won over 25f+ (although that stat now 1/156, not a 0 from x) and I do think he wants it deeper. He looks a bit of a plodder these days, and this isn’t a race for the plodders anymore really. (again, a ‘just in case’ nibble). This race is very classy now, packed with previous G1 + G2 winners/placed horses. I don’t think the likes of Gas Line Boy and Good To Know will be good enough- class 2 animals at best maybe. Neither of those could do what any of the three above have done in G1s/2s/3s, not for me. I may have that wrong of course.
Clearly we all know that the winner hasn’t even been mentioned on this blog but you know below why my pin was never destined to be near anything else. This approach works for me in general, and I won’t abandon it now. (maybe next year I will if they all tail off)
I have a ‘shortlist’ of 10! Before revealing those, let’s have a look at the stats I have used…
- 11-10 or more a neg (0/39,5p last 20 years)
- Aged 8-12 (6+7 yo 0/50,0p last 20 years) (12+, 0/36,2p last 10)
- Ran within last 60 Days (61+, 0/143,11p last 20 years)
- 3+ runs this season (0-2 are 0/185,15p last 20 years)
- Top 8 LTO or DNF (9th worse but completed, 0/67,4p last 10 years) (20/20 also Top 8 LTO or DNF)
- Bottom Weights/inc joint (0/29,0p)
- 10 or more chase runs (9 or fewer, 0/72,5p 10 years)
- 5 or more career wins (4<, 0/125,12p 10 years)
- 0-4 handicap wins (5+, 0/48,4p, 10 years)
- Won C2+ (0/35,1p had not, 10 years)
- 6+ places (inc wins) in chases (5<, 0/116,5p last 10 years)
- Ran C1 or 2 LTO (C3<, 0/53,2p)
Those are what I have used to guide me. If something wins that goes against any of those stats then so be it. This will be yet another year where I was never destined to find the winner, and if this goes to pot maybe I won’t bother with stats next year. But, if they hold up, then the winner is coming from the following 10 I believe…
Saphir Du Rheu (20/1)/ Wonderful Charm (40/1)/ Tenor Nivernais (50/1) / Blacklion (14/1) / Cause of Causes (14/1) / Houblon Des Obeaux (50/1)/ Lord Windermere (50/1) / Thunder And Roses (33/1) / Gas Line Boy (80/1)/ Good To Know (100/1)
Duke Street – 1 point win – 14/1 (WH/BV/SportB) 12/1 (general)
No Comment – 1 point win – 12/1 (SJ/BB) 10/1 (general)
I used 6 stats or so to narrow this down to around 10 runners, and then a further 4 or 5 pointers, and some aintree micro angles/stats in my normal Members post to bolster confidence. The stats suggest this race usually goes to one thoroughly unexposed at the distance, often having never ran over 3m, or no further than 2m6f in their career to date.
No Comment – is a perfect stats fit. The only negative is that Hobbs is 0/15,1p in the race but given he hits everything else, and ran well LTO from the back, in a race where is paid to be handy, I had to have a dart. Gerraghty’s choice also. He also ticks two ‘race micros’ of never having run beyond 2,6f before and having only had 1 handicap hurdle run before.
Duke Street – again he ticks all my main boxes and he is unexposed over this distance. Of interest that STD has been booked to ride. He has been running well in decent enough races and is worth a go at this distance. He may not stay. No Comment may not stay. Or it will be the making of the pair.
Mr McGo – he was high on my list of the first lot of stats I used, but falls down on a few others. But, at his price, I have had some change on at BFSP. Handicap debutants have a very poor record in this race over the last 10 years, as do those that ran in non-handicaps LTO.
Again, I may not have mentioned the winner! Others on my main shortlist: Briery Queen / Golden Doyen / Morello Royale / Fountains Windfall / For Good Measure / What A Night
We know how this goes…
Knock House – 1 point win – 18/1 (general)
Sizing Codelco – 1 point win – 16/1 (general)
Potters Legend – 1 point win – 10/1 (general)
Stats profile: Not PU LTO / 0-1 handicap chase wins / 0-1 wins this season / Run at G3 level or above / C1 or 2 LTO
If I am correct that leaves Knock House and Sizing Codelco. The only two to hit that profile. As simple as that. Given their odds I have just gone with them. Conditions are ideal for Knock House- a small niggle if he is good enough for a C2, but he is 18s, and I will pay to find out given his stats fit. Sizing Codelco is unexposed at this trip and ran well to a point over 26f at Cheltenham in a bog. He should be right in the van here, and with better ground and a flatter finish, could go close. The yard/connections couldn’t be in better form.
Potters Legend- well I backed/tipped him at the Festival and were he to win here without being tipped I would be furious. He wasn’t given the best ride, probably not helped by the standing start. In any case he was held up right out the back and given the ground he had to make up he ran a fine race. He can hit the odd fence but if he could be ridden close to the pace that would help. He is a dour stayer and at a double figure price I had to have a go – it worked for Rather Be and The World’s End- Festival losses returned with plenty of interest! He falls down on a couple of stats but it isn’t the strongest of stats races, a lot of those I have used were 0/45,8 places type stats, which are no 0/80,1p, 0/150+ etc. So, I may not have mentioned the winner, again.
The fav looks very interesting and he could blitz these from the front, much like the il-fated Arzal did for them last year, in another race. But 6s is short for one without any big field chase experience. That won’t matter if he never sees another horse of course. And that is possible. But, I had to take him on.
I will mention Henri Parry Morgan, who is becoming very frustrating over fences. His mark is plummeting and he will hack up in a handicap chase one day, maybe today. He just has too many questions for me now, especially in a big field where he can get surrounded. But I have a feeling he may go very close here. I didn’t want to tip 4 in this, but I may not be able to stop myself throwing £5 (1/4 of a tipping point for me) at him on the Tote, track side. That may just about cover any losses on the other three if he does put it all together.
thoughts to follow…
I haven’t bothered looking at any stats for this and won’t be ‘tipping’ in it.
From my Members Post there are a handful that crop up in my Aintree micros and a qualifier for the #1 strategy from my trainer stats. In order of preference I have/will be backing… Born Survivor (was 10s+ most of last night/this morning)/ Wakea / Vosnae Romanee / Aminabad . The last two are proper pokes, but will have some of my money on.
That’s the lot for Aintree. No thoughts on anything else!
Good luck with whatever you go with and please, don’t let anything on this page put you off your National fancy. If ever there is a race in which to ignore stats obsessives like me, it is probably this one!
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
5.15 Aintree- Bishops Road
Saturday Trainer/jockey Combo (14/1<)
3.40 Aintree – Lamb or Cod
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
1.45 Aintree – Barney Dwan (12/1< guide)
5.15 Aintree- Bishops Road (12/1<)
That’s the lot. Post complete.