Festival Review: Day 1
Below is a video/over-the-shoulder review of Day 1 of the festival. The other days won’t be as long as this one! (well, I say that now) It covers various things that you may find of interest – especially moving forward and for next year’s Festival. Plenty to learn from as always. Hopefully some of you find it interesting. Notepads at the ready! When I have completed days 2/3/4 I will put them all into one post. But for now…
Emma Soda – 1 point win – 10/1 (WH/BF/Coral/Lad) 9/1 (general) PU* -1
*damn. That didn’t go to plan!- effort suggests she didn’t handle whatever ground that turned into but given how she has run on heavy before, I would have been more confident – well I was- there was no real market support which was a concern. Did not see that coming. The two finishers were the two with 10-1 or less on back, which may be some indication of how tough that was. On we go.
Anyone with a geegeez gold account that happens to use the ‘instant expert’ win tab may well see why this horse stood out as being of interest! Always a useful ‘way in’ is that tool, and I am quite pleased with the price of this one. I expect her to be hammered in here as this looks like a plan- if she isn’t then I have that wrong, and will get my coat. I almost went 1.5-2 points, maybe I will regret not doing so but I will stick with the 1 point win or 1 point EW approach that has worked well enough in recent days. And it is a moderate C4 chase at the end of the day but I probably couldn’t be more confident in a race like this
The horse… well she is 12 but has only had 16 chase starts, having won 4 of them and placed in a further two. She is 2/4 at the course and 2/3 over Course And Distance. She is the only proven stayer/slogger in the field really. No other horse has won over this trip although a few haven’t had many goes. But in soft ground, in what could be hard work, I want a proven stayer onside. She is laden with stamina as her record here suggests – she also has chase wins at Towcester and Carlisle- that marks you out as a plodder to be feared. I think she will out-stay this modest bunch and demolish them-if running her race!
This also looks like a right old plan. She has won this race twice before I believe, in 2015 and 2013. She raced in a similar race last year over CD but class 3. She is 4/6 in soft ground handicap chases, 3/11,5p in handicap chases C4 <6k to winner. She is 3/5,3 places in March. And she has won once every year since she was aged 8, she is due her 12 year old win now!
I also find it interesting that the blinkers return, and she usually races prominently. The last day she had cheekpieces on and was held up out the back! Interesting. Three starts ago her mark was 112, it is 103 today. Good job I say! I also think connections may have wanted to ensure they have a jockey who knows her – Dave Cross will be riding her for the 3rd time.
All the rest have questions over the going and as importantly the trip. We have no concerns on that front.
She is ‘the’ bet in this race for me and I am looking forward to her getting into a rhythm near the front end- if she is travelling comfortably and jumping well I am struggling to see what beats her really.
There is one niggle…and that is the actual weight- that is an unknown factored into the price but I don’t see it being a problem. Obviously something may just improve for this step up in trip but having looked at the rest I don’t want to be with any others at the prices.
Clearly I have set this up for a spectacular failure, but she is over-priced, that is the main thing. 9s and 10s is just too big.
Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.20 Warwick- Krackatoa King WON 13/8
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
A decent 13/2 winner for Smith/Cook on Tuesday…(brilliant ride)
3.10 Hayd- Wolf Sword 2nd
That will be it for Wednesday… my ‘research to do list’ has grown (Flat guide + Aintree) and I should probably crack on with that.
NEW Membership Options are live…
This for for those of you who joined for the Festival week (think the membership runs out today or tomorrow) and may wish to stay around for a little while longer. My New Membership Offer is now up and running… includes a 21 day free trial.
If you wish to give that a try you can do so HERE>>>
Further details on what you get as part of that package can be found HERE>>>
(and if not, no worries – there will be plenty of free posts etc, and with any luck I will see you again next March)