Festival Review: Day 1
Below is a video/over-the-shoulder review of Day 1 of the festival. The other days won’t be as long as this one! (well, I say that now) It covers various things that you may find of interest – especially moving forward and for next year’s Festival. Plenty to learn from as always. Hopefully some of you find it interesting. Notepads at the ready! When I have completed days 2/3/4 I will put them all into one post. But for now…
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TIPS
4.50 Warwick
Emma Soda – 1 point win – 10/1 (WH/BF/Coral/Lad) 9/1 (general) PU* -1
*damn. That didn’t go to plan!- effort suggests she didn’t handle whatever ground that turned into but given how she has run on heavy before, I would have been more confident – well I was- there was no real market support which was a concern. Did not see that coming. The two finishers were the two with 10-1 or less on back, which may be some indication of how tough that was. On we go.
Anyone with a geegeez gold account that happens to use the ‘instant expert’ win tab may well see why this horse stood out as being of interest! Always a useful ‘way in’ is that tool, and I am quite pleased with the price of this one. I expect her to be hammered in here as this looks like a plan- if she isn’t then I have that wrong, and will get my coat. I almost went 1.5-2 points, maybe I will regret not doing so but I will stick with the 1 point win or 1 point EW approach that has worked well enough in recent days. And it is a moderate C4 chase at the end of the day but I probably couldn’t be more confident in a race like this
The horse… well she is 12 but has only had 16 chase starts, having won 4 of them and placed in a further two. She is 2/4 at the course and 2/3 over Course And Distance. She is the only proven stayer/slogger in the field really. No other horse has won over this trip although a few haven’t had many goes. But in soft ground, in what could be hard work, I want a proven stayer onside. She is laden with stamina as her record here suggests – she also has chase wins at Towcester and Carlisle- that marks you out as a plodder to be feared. I think she will out-stay this modest bunch and demolish them-if running her race!
This also looks like a right old plan. She has won this race twice before I believe, in 2015 and 2013. She raced in a similar race last year over CD but class 3. She is 4/6 in soft ground handicap chases, 3/11,5p in handicap chases C4 <6k to winner. She is 3/5,3 places in March. And she has won once every year since she was aged 8, she is due her 12 year old win now!
I also find it interesting that the blinkers return, and she usually races prominently. The last day she had cheekpieces on and was held up out the back! Interesting. Three starts ago her mark was 112, it is 103 today. Good job I say! I also think connections may have wanted to ensure they have a jockey who knows her – Dave Cross will be riding her for the 3rd time.
All the rest have questions over the going and as importantly the trip. We have no concerns on that front.
She is ‘the’ bet in this race for me and I am looking forward to her getting into a rhythm near the front end- if she is travelling comfortably and jumping well I am struggling to see what beats her really.
There is one niggle…and that is the actual weight- that is an unknown factored into the price but I don’t see it being a problem. Obviously something may just improve for this step up in trip but having looked at the rest I don’t want to be with any others at the prices.
Clearly I have set this up for a spectacular failure, but she is over-priced, that is the main thing. 9s and 10s is just too big.
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.20 Warwick- Krackatoa King WON 13/8
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
A decent 13/2 winner for Smith/Cook on Tuesday…(brilliant ride)
3.10 Hayd- Wolf Sword 2nd
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That will be it for Wednesday… my ‘research to do list’ has grown (Flat guide + Aintree) and I should probably crack on with that.
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NEW Membership Options are live…
This for for those of you who joined for the Festival week (think the membership runs out today or tomorrow) and may wish to stay around for a little while longer. My New Membership Offer is now up and running… includes a 21 day free trial.
If you wish to give that a try you can do so HERE>>>
Further details on what you get as part of that package can be found HERE>>>
(and if not, no worries – there will be plenty of free posts etc, and with any luck I will see you again next March)
14 Responses
Wow Josh. I don’t really care what happens to the tip tomorrow. It is just great to see you get a bit of your swagger back. Quite right too. An amazing Cheltenham week which not only threw up multiple winners and places, but also gave so much insight to the most challenging races and added so much to an already outstanding week of racing. So to use your phrase, if Emma Soda falls out the back of the TV then so be it but it is great to see you tipping with confidence which you absolutely have the right to. Cheers Ben
Ha cheers Ben! Yep maybe my ‘tipping swagger’ had been out in the wilderness for a bit too long. This is a game of the mind/confidence and nothing like a good festival to lift the mood.Glad you enjoyed the Festival coverage, that will be the model for every year from now on.
Fingers crossed- she should only fall out the back of the TV if she has a problem/jumping etc. Everything screams this has been a target, surely it had. Whether or not she is good enough we shall see but the rest are fairly moderate. The price for the top 3 is far too short for me given their questions. Time will tell.
Cheers Josh
Yeah I would echo those statements. Definitely nice to see you feel eager about your work again mate. (where as I am probably feeling like you did a month or so ago)
Whilst I am listening to your excellent video a few extra thoughts:
1) Cleeve Hurdle once again produced a Festival Chase winner as it has a number of times over the past few years
2) With regards to the decision on win and e/w it probably depends on the race and places on offer. (I would probably say that’s true in general) At Cheltenham you have a lot of races where you can get 5/6 places particularly the Chases where there are some solid e/w bets but probably less of a benefit where you can only get the 4 in the 24 runner field. The hurdles appear to throw up a lot more unlucky losers.
3) I wouldn’t discount form completely. Gold Present had some pretty good form racing including running Frodon close off basically level weights where as the winner was rated almost 20lbs higher.
Without this becoming too much like a back slapping exercise, please don’t get too down Nick. Your analysis is first class and the winners will start flowing again.
Oh yeah I know. I just meant it’s considerably easier to motive yourself when you’re running hot than when you’re not. At the moment I am finding the winners but just keep dismissing them for one reason or another.
Cheers Nick. Yep I have felt more mentally switched on since the Haydock Pipe winner maybe. The members club/ttp etc took it out of me nov/Dec I think,getting that the best I could and I didn’t have a break over Xmas,bit drained! Anyway..
Good point about the Cleeve,have read that before maybe from you or on another blog possibly. We will all have to note that next year . That was Un Temps again I assume . Another reason to have backed him!
Yea EW always tricky , some thinking to do there . I didn’t want to risk more than 25 points really so hands tied to an extent and where possible I want 1 point on the win side on more confident ones. Think you are right with 5/6 places etc.
Form.. yep I should clarify, I am probably more dismissive of ‘experts’ who ‘just’ focus on form. Of course it is a factor but I place more importance on race profile/their suitability/festival form/class… the latter point needs to be more prominent and I suppose that is linked to form. A factor for sure but not the determining factor for me. I would have used some analaysis on shortlisted horses to get a feel for strength of form/geegeez what next etc .
Always plenty to build on!
Josh
Emma Soda old friend,had nice win with Sue today,will look Wolf
I think really what you did really was to go back to basics Josh, that is placing price paramount, there were a good few bets that I didn’t follow on the basis of having questionable credentials and a poor price, sometimes the pressure to find winners erodes confidence a bit,when a 16/1 shot falls out of the back of the telly, its sort of expected and hasn’t the same psychological efect, if 10% win over time your well ahead but they do tend to come in batches.Patience to wait for the ones that just jump off the page at you is the trick.
Yep I think you are right Gerry, and it is amazing how mindset affects everything – ideally you keep steady whether winning or losing but that is easier said than done. I think my mind was clouded with plenty of things members related Nov-Feb and making sure that worked- but jumps wise, that has a settled approach/strategies now and is working very well- which helps create mental space for ‘tipping’ with more enthusiasm maybe.
Hello, thought I had sent £12.50 through Paypal yesterday,but cant login please help.
Hi Michael, I will email you.. all looks fine my end so must be log in details maybe.
Josh
Got another anticipatory few hours! – £1 EW treble Mazaaher took 25 early, Gavlar BOG 14…all going on Willow Spring 8.45 Kempton at 20-1. May be able to lay off at some point too, provided the odds move the right way on BF and/or she travels well.
A real shame that a £2.50 treble with those 2 included my old friend The Musical Wedge instead (a misplaced emotional bet if ever there was one!). If Wedgie had been the 3rd runner instead of the 2nd I’d have taken 365s hand off for the cashout!
But Willow is not out of the 8.45 at 20s and not taking 365s paltry (almost insulting) current cashout offer.
So Willow Spring 8.45 Kempton. Needs to prove can handle 6f. Outside draw but don’t think it’ll matter in this. In fact given a ‘from the back, finished well’ run over 5 at Lingfield two runs back there is some (small, but worth it at 20s) hope that getting caught out back in a Kempton 6f race could suit. Nothing else that great in the race and maybe hitting 5 years old will give Willow that little bit of improvement.
Going to go somewhere out of the house to listen to it though 🙂
PS looks like the first 2 home in the first came from the back in a steady paced race. Gives some extra hope, let’s hope sods law doesn’t make Willow go off like a scalded cat!
Last!
But for anyone ever in the same position…
The beauty of Betfair!
Took the Bet365 cashout at last minute with 75 on offer at BF, allowed a big enough bet on BF to win almost the same amount while still ending a useful amount up!
One day the 3 will come in 🙁
Last call for today – the Cowell yard looks like it’s on fire. They have a 4YO daughter of Bahamian Bounty running in the last – Just Over, visored first time. Could easily be better than a class 6 h/capper. 34 on Betfair probably fair to find out.