NEW MEMBERSHIP OPTIONS ARE NOW LIVE!
This for for those of you who joined for the Festival week (think the membership runs out today or tomorrow) and of course any other non-members.
I have the perfect present for you to reinvest some Festival winnings on (or Chase The Spud, or Bescott Springs..) :)…
My New Membership Offer is now up and running… includes a 21 day free trial
(if you cancel before the end you are not charged, if you wished to leave but forgot and paid accidentally, drop me an email and I will refund etc)
If you wish to give that a try you can do so HERE>>>
Further details on what you get as part of that package can be found HERE>>>
** The current payment option is Paypal Only. You have the option to ‘pay with card’ and in effect use it as a guest. I believe they encourage you to create an account at the end of the process if you wish to, but that is not a requirement**
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A reminder of performance of the #1 advised strategy within the Members Club : ‘The Ratings Pointers 10/1+’ approach.
So far in March up to today they are 4/16 = +43.45 BFSP.
In 2017 to date: 70 bets / 11 wins / 16% win SR / +86.5 BFSP (or + £432.50 to £5 win bets)
If yo do nothing else with the content on those pages that is the one ‘systematic’ approach to follow. It has the highest ROI at the moment of any approach at 124%. We shall see how they do on the flat but making 300 odd points a year from around 1 bet a day would be enjoyable 🙂
Given the number of bets and it’s developing consistency it should also be the least stressful approach, with losing runs less severe than other strategies. There have been a few losing runs of 10-15 I think but it never takes many winners to eradicate those memories.
From this foundation you can play around with the rest of the content – Saturdays, Geegeez Top Rated , any other 10/1+ shots, or indeed any other qualifiers you may fancy when using your own approach.
You can take your 21 day Free Trial HERE>>>
(and if it’s not for you, no worries – there will be plenty of free posts etc, and with any luck I will see you again next March)
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TIPS
4.15 Exeter- Court By Surprise– 1 point win – 10/1 (general) 9/1 (general) NR
Well back to the bread and butter on the tipping front- 3m+ handicap chases. Although I have no race stats/trends to help here so some caution advised!!
This is actually a ‘ratings pointer 10/1+’ qualifier for the Members posts and I have put him up as my ‘bet of the day’ in that section- a test, which has had a decent start- 3/10,3p +15 points after yesterday’s winner – and the start was poor, 0/5,0p.
Anyway, here is what I wrote as to his chance..
Well he is a 12 year old and I probably wouldn’t want a single figure price on him but a case can be made in a race where everything has some sort of question. I think if he repeats that 2nd behind Loose Chips at Sandown earlier in the season, he goes very close here. That is an if,but we get a price. I think you could make some sort of legitimate excuse for every run since and his mark has at least dropped a fair way. This is also a drop in class. He is a CD winner, 1/1 at the track and it looks like he may enjoy these stiff RH tracks these days. There is a bit of cut in the ground also and I just thought if he ran one of his better races, he would be in with a chance. I will pay to find out. He usually peaks Oct-Dec so it may be he has gone of the boil,we shall see. He should race prominently and Lavelle is in some form, 4/18,6p in the last 30 days. Tom Scudamore rides for the first time which is of some interest I thought.
10s just seems a shade too big.
… this is also part inspired by the level of opposition. Kap Jazz is a worthy fav i think given his profile but will need to prove he stays around here. The way he won at Carlisle LTO and stayed on at Huntingdon a few runs before that, suggests it should be fine- but it is a question. His rating has gone up and he also has a lot more weight on his back- he may handle that fine, but still, has it to prove. He can beat me.
The rest have as many, or more, questions that the selection. Capard King is young and unexposed I suppose, so a chance. He hasn’t done much over fences though, has had 60+ days off and has an inexperienced jockey. Some questions there at under 5/1. Bindon Mill- well his trainer’s record with runners returning after 60+ days would concern me- and stop me taking a short price- 0/54,15 such runners last two years, and 2/54 or so with handicap chasers in the last 5 years. IF he is tuned up, he should go close here given his profile. Clearly no shock winner. The break may suggest a problem though.
Longsdon’s horse is interesting I suppose- again another with a fairly unexposed profile- there are a few in here which is again why I want a price on our old rogue. Many younger legs to fight off. His last couple of runs have been poor and this kind of track, over fences, will be new to him. But, if he gets back to that Market Rasen form, and builds on it, he may be in the mix. The better ground may help and on only his 4th chase start not a shock.
The Manfromminella has a tendency to jump left and I am unsure as to the strength of his recent form. He is a CD winner though so can’t be totally rules out, although his last two runs would concern me. Pithivier is another lightly raced chaser who needs to step forward again- but he has been disappointing and I would like to see more. Maybe they have done something with him and again, you wouldn’t fall of you chair if he ran better.
IF Bertie Boru WON 11/1 (after 30p R4)>9/2 SP ran one of his better races he may go close here- so unpredictable now and he just struggles to jump, often coming from the back and making howlers. He tends to stay on late over trips like this…
but as I ponder… at 16s, there would be worse horses to have some spare change on. This feels like one of those races where anything could happen really – it has a weak feel to it.
So, that will do. We have a horse at a price who if he ran up to any of his better recent runs would be in the mix. He is usually a sound jumper and races prominently. He could out-run these odds.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Pam Sly Fillies/Mares (any odds)
3.25 Weth – Taweyla UP
Trainer/Jockey Combo- Live Test
4.00 Weth – Swing Hard WON 13/2
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That will be all for today.
12 Responses
not much to shout about today but one i did find interesting was in Southwell 5-35, Richard Fahey runs RIVER WARRIOR there is no form reason whatsoever why this shoudn’t finish plum last but dropped to C6, first time in handicap,Connor Murtagh on board claiming 7,blinkers and @ 16-1 i’m going to have a £2ew shot in the dark.
in from 16’s to 12’s i’m sure it wasn’t my £2ew that did that 🙂 perhaps i’m on to something (wishful thinking)
Good luck Martin, just had a look…and ticks every box – well bar a move in distance- that you want with a poke like that- numerous reasons as you point out for why there ‘may’ be improvement- of course he could just be rubbish! I did not fahey only 0/12,1p with handicap debutants here- but that’s a stat to be put off a 4/1 shot, not a 16s poke. GL!
now into 8’s
Mount Russell 4-35 Wetherby qualifies ,from JUMPS HANDICAPS MICRO SYSTEMS PORTFOLIO: 2016/19 system 5 I believe.
Falcolns fire 2.40 South looks far too big at 25-1 up to 33 with Betvictor. Has won on soft and out of 2 runs at Southwell so far first one was first ever race (ran green, kept on), 2nd was most recent run and after 6 month break. Distance looks OK, has won (easily) at both Newcastle and Hamilton (soft) in the past. Risk is he still needs it and I guess a big drift on BF leading up to the off could be an indicator.
Update : doesn’t look good drifting fairly heavily by the look of it. Next time maybe.
Hmmmm…..
Well sometimes things are not as they look but it’s not too hard – given the drift and what happened at the start in combination – to jump to the conclusion that someone didn’t want a good run today. Of course there could be a whole load of stuff we don’t know about going on with the horse in the background.
May well be worth keeping an eye open with the aim of being on when they do intend to run or have sorted out fitness or whatever is wrong.
Today speculation is 5:10 WETHERBY Kirby/Dowson
8/1 he had verygood his previous runs at Weth on good/soft
Fav Ask Pddy can be to heavy
Anyone have any ‘spare change’ on old Bertie at 16s??… 11/1 after R4… I manged to find some down the side of the couch 🙂
Had £8 at 9/1 betfair – not complaining lost a few quid on this one in the past
ha, yea I think that has got back a few losses on him!! All fell right, even more so after the NRs and the rain…they plodded around, slow pace,no one wanted to go on, plenty of space/time to jump. Had to be going close there in the end. Wont find many weaker races as it turned out. May well have won anyway, but never mind. Wasn’t one to be confident on this morning but was 16s I suppose. Glad you had a nibble.