FESTIVAL: DAY 4 (complete)

Day 4

1.Intro/re cap

2.TIPS: Summary

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)

5.Any Other Thoughts

 

**

1.Intro/re cap

That was a bloody great day’s racing. I hope you enjoyed it.

I will try and get more done this evening as was the case yesterday. I am not out which will help.

We take +23 points into Day 4, maybe 5/6 more points at BFSP. I won’t spray around more than 8 points I don’t think, to ensure we are left with at least +15 points in a worst case scenario.

Potters Legend was unlucky I think, or received a poor ride. That’s racing. He made two howlers and were it not for those I think he would have won. I am unsure of the standing start was the problem, as he was right out the back of the field. The leaders didn’t really come back. Having to make up so much ground may have been the cause of the errors. Or his jumping just wasn’t good enough. One that got away maybe the Festival is full of such examples so I won’t complain. He is one to watch.

Mr Ryanair took the same handicap chase as he did last year, those colours are clearly ones to watch in chases. He had just been running in decent novice chasers and was able to come into the race with a bucket load in hand. Something to keep in mind.

Supasaunde or however it is spelt had a similar profile also- decent novice form, in good races, returning to decent ground. He had a solid Supreme effort last year also. A few things there to think about/work on, outside of any stats approach.

Hopefully some of you may have backed Bescott Springs in the daily Members Posts, the bread and butter of the Members content. A nice 19.00 on BFSP. That strategy must be over +80 points BFSP in 2017 I think, but need to update results. It is around that, from an average of 1 bet per day.

No doubt who stole the show, Mullins/Walsh silencing any doubters. As I touched on it wasn’t as if their horses had been running badly on the whole. Well done to them. The Festival has had a more balanced feel this year, not just one trainer dominating. All we need now is for Cue Card to win, somehow! (that is heart, not head)

Anyway, I hope you have enjoyed the week. Only one blip, quite a big one. But it may help over time. Before the Festival I had looked at 3 handicap hurdles on the blog using my stats approach. They found the 1-2 in the Betfair hurdle from a shortlist of 4, a 50/1 placed horse in the Coral hurdle in Ireland, and the 10/1 winner of the Imperial Cup. This week they have done well in the Pertemps and the 33/1 winner of the Fred Winter. Maybe I need to ensure I look at any Saturday big field handicap hurdles more often! I will get those 33 points back.

Right, moving on…

**

Well I have gone a bit crazy again but have ensured we are guaranteed at least +10 points profit on the tips this week, which I can live with. It has been good fun. You always want more but hopefully you have been entertained. I had a look at my tipping ‘form line’ last night… 2,UP,4,1,1,3,2,UP,UP,5,UP,UP,1,3,5,UP,UP,2,UP,UP,UP,UP,4

3/23, 12 places… winners at 16s,12s,11s, all placed horses 7/1+.. just over 50% have placed with most bookies paying out for those two 5th places, 20s, 25s. I won’t count up what 1 point EW would have been- nearly 50 points maybe – I didn’t want the prospect of blowing a 50 point bank, but the stats shortlists/final picking has worked generally. Maybe we will have more EW confidence next year.

Anyway, I thought we would have some fun on the final day, what’s the point in ‘protecting’ 5 points at the Festival. Of course you can 1/2 stakes if you wish to end up on more profit. On we march, to glory, or a bloody nose…

 

2.TIPS: Summary

 

2.10 

Crievehill – 1 point EW – 33/1 – UP

Wait For Me – 1 point win – 20/1 – UP

De Name Escapes Me – 1/2 point  win – 25/1  – UP

Jaleo – 1/2 point win – 40/1-50/1 – UP

 

2.50 

The World’s End – 1/2 point EW – 10/1 (bet365) 9s/8s (general) UP (would have placed at worst, took a fall) 🙂

 

4.50 

Rather Be – 1 point EW – 14/1 (general)  BD/UP

Champagne Classic – 1 point EW – 25/1 (general, as above) WON!! 25/1>12/1 (28s/33s available after posting for a while)

 

5.30 

Pair of Brown Eyes – 1 point EW – 25/1 (general) UP

Solita – 1 point EW – 33/1 (general) UP/PU

 

**

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

System Selections Can Be Read Via Online PDF HERE>>>>

(not sure why I didn’t think of that before, much quicker than typing them all up!)

+ Twister and Nicholls have done well in the past on the Friday.

 

4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)

2.10 

Tips

Crievehill – 1 point EW – 33/1 (genera) (check place terms, 1/4 odds 5 places around, 1/5th odds 6 places SB/PP- choice is yours)

Wait For Me – 1 point win – 20/1 (WH) 18/1 (general) (BFSP may be the place,but who knows)

De Name Escapes Me – 1/2 point  win – 25/1 (general) (again BFSP may be the place)

Jaleo – 1/2 point win – 40/1-50/1 (general) (BFSP for this one for me I think)

Shortlist 

A strict interpretation of the winning profile, including weight/OR leaves just 5:

Crievehill  / De Name Escapes Me / Wait For Me / Jaleo / Mohaayed

NOTE: Correction.. for those of you using the ‘winning profile’ guide, there is an error. Being Aged 5+6 is down as a negative, when in fact it should be a positive. 

Ratings… well in the last 10 years those OR 140+ are 0/104, 10 places. 0/32,2 places the last 2 years. Top 8 in the weights are 0/85, 7 places.

I think I have to follow those. I will apply the winning profile ignoring the OR/weight and see if there is a shortlist that way.

Of note also, of the UK runners, those that ran outside of C1+2 LTO are 0/45,5p. That would do for the last two in that list above.

Crievehill is interesting given he was behind Neon Wolf LTO and is thoroughly unexposed. Ground an unknown but many have said it has been riding dead, so that may help. De Name Escapes Me- well the Irish have a great record in this and but for injuries who knows if BG or Mark Walsh would have been on this one. He is in the could be anything bracket and Meade’s have gone well here this week. IF this has been a plan, then that last run may mean sod all. Wait For Me was fourth in this last year of a higher mark and 3rd in the Festival bumper the year before that. Hobbs is 0/16,6p in the race. That Festival form by itself is interesting.

On a strict interpretation of my stats I don’t know how I can avoid those three, given they are priced 33/1, 33/1 and 18/1

 

Preview 

I have looked at those above the OR cut off/high weights which leaves numbers 2,3,4,8,9,13,14… the final one is Air Horse One who can’t have the amount you need in hand now, to win this. The others all ran in a  non handicap LTO, they are 1/81,8p last 10 years. The only one of mild interest to my eyes is Ivanovich G, who ran at Leoparstown LTO, quals on a couple of system angles, and has Festival form. But, I will stick with what looks a solid stats profile… if a classy one breaks the OR/weight then so be it. North Hill Harvey falls down on the ‘runs this season’ stat also.

Crievehill- aptly named really if he storms up this hill, in the shadows of Cleeve Hill, for Twister, who could do with a winner. His have been running ok this week. Ballyandy probably ran up to his best but had a poor trip/arguably poor ride, The New One ran as good as he is, Ballymalin ran well in 7th yesterday having done all the donkey work – his two stable mates taking him on also. Not a bad run. The rest, much like Tizzards, have been a massive price and unfancied. Twister had a 2nd place with Flying Angle in the Martin Pipe on this day last year. Anyway, this one ticks all the stats boxes and is the perfect age bracket also. The hood appears to have helped and he ran well behind Neon Wolf the last day, and Elgin, quite a bit ahead of Skelton’s bottom weight here. He could have a load in hand here and there is a chance this strong pace/big field will really help. The ground is an unknown, he hasn’t tried it and his sire has plenty of decent ground winners. At 33s I won’t let that unknown put me off, and the ground has been dead, rather than really quick. As an EW bet I think he looks very interesting and hopefully he can be Top 5 at worse.

Wit For Me – well part of me thinks he is just out of form and they reach for the tongue tie in desperation. Hence why I went against EW I suppose, if he is out of sorts then he won’t be placing- if he runs well enough to place, he runs well enough to win, if good enough. His Festival form is decent and at that price, I had to have a go. He will probably place and Twister’s will be out with the washing, but the decision is made now.

De Name Escapes Me– another who looks out of form but is on the shortlist, is lightly raced, open to improvement, and the trainer is in form- his runners here this week have gone well, so well he even had his first ever handicap/chase winner here. His BFSP could be tasty, I will hold fire and see what the market does, and take a price if some signs he may collapse. Him not being in great form, and lightly raced in recent years, big gaps between racing, have dented the confidence, hence the stake.

Jaleo– I can’t really see it, but he is on the shortlist and will be the biggest price of these and were he to somehow win with no tip, that would certainly ruin what has been a decent week. He is lightly raced and has Festival form. You never know.

 

I should mention Mohaayed – the only one on the shortlist not tipped- ah, well. I may be raiding my spare change drawer/side of sofa etc to throw £2 at him BFSP, just in case. Crievehill beat him well enough in that Haydock race, to demonstrate he has more class, but you never know on the day. And the Skelton’s clearly fancy their other one.

North Hill Harvey has been highly touted, as was their bumper runner in truth, but he falls down on plenty of stats and can be the stats buster at 8s, he may demolish them if having so much in hand. In that scenario a place from Twisters will do nicely.

 

4.50 

Tips

Rather Be – 1 point EW – 14/1 (general) (5 places Bet365/BFred/BetB) (5p SkyBet,12/1) (4 generally)

Champagne Classic – 1 point EW – 25/1 (general, as above)

Shortlist 

My Winning Profile Leaves: Run for Dave / Castello Storza / Champagne Classic WON  / Ballyhill / Rather Be / Battleford / Catamaran Du Seuil

Those with 1 or 2 handicap runs have a poor record which removes NTDs, who looks out of sorts anyway. Dr Richard Newland’s ran in a C4 novice LTO and wears blinkers. Given the connections of the 5 who remain I am happy to leave him also.

I feel a bit like the Pertemps here, bullish that one of those 5 may win this. The one drawing me in is Henderson’s – Rather Be – who ran in the champion bumper last year and had some decent form, before his 16f heavy ground run LTO. That wouldn’t have suited this strong traveller and it is to his credit he ran as well as he did. He looks the most interesting to me on this ground. I can’t see how i won’t be backing him EW, esp given the form of his trainer, who has also won this race before.

Run For Dave has the perfect profile, inc the weight bands I think and Elliot will be desperate to win this race given it’s names after his great mentor, Martin Pipe.

Mullins has a great record in this also, and his Castello Storza was 4th in the Champion bumper last year. He looks a tricky horse who may not like being in front that long, but maybe these conditions will suit and he has a top jock on. Those three are of most interest.

Battleford is a single figure price and a negative is having 11-00 or less on back, or has been… 0/36,6p. Small numbers, but it’s maybe a reason to leave at that price. But he ran well in the Champion Bumper also.

Champagne classic may be more of a grinding chaser. He has ran over further and in the mud. This ground is an unknown but he is a big price and like most in here is unexposed. If handling the ground/not getting outpaced, extra stamina is no bad thing.

Preview 

Rather Be – If I did ‘Naps’ he would be my EW nap of the day, from all my selections I think. I am hoping/expecting a big run here. I can’t work out jockey bookings but Deutch is a step up from Ned Curtis in my opinion, plenty of big race experience. This horse has run as if he has class, and could have come into this with plenty in hand. He ran well in the Champion Bumper last year at 50s, and hasn’t done much wrong over hurdles. He jumps well, and travels powerfully to my eye. He also responds well to the whip/pressure from what I have watched this morning. The last day he was giving the winner 5lbs, when you include his claim, and I can’t think 16f in heavy was ideal. The front two were miles clear and he was closing to the line, and to my eye wasn’t given a hard time. The big filed/strong pace here may suit him to the ground. Henderson is 1/20,5p in the race last 10 years, and I think this could make it is second winner. Granted usual luck in running, I am going to be rather despondent if he isn’t in the top 5 at worst here. Bullish. Or as bullish as you can be in a race like this. My confidence hasn’t been mis placed as yet this week, so I am due a shocker on that front.

Champagne Classic – Well of the 5 who remained on my shortlist, I have ended up backing the two biggest priced ones. He ticks the boxes and he stays well, which could be no bad thing in this, climbing up the hill to place at worst. The ground is an unknown- i can’t say whether he will relish it or everything will happen too quickly. In that scenario you want a price, we have that. Gigginstown are 1/6,3 places in this race to date. And he is trained by that man Elliot. So, who knows. Worth a stab. 

Clearly the three others on the shortlist might win. I am not sure what I have taken this morning, but I think that shortlist of 5 includes the winner of this. I am confident again, much like with the Pertemps yesterday. I fear the Mullins horses because of his record in this. Battleford falls down on a couple of supporting stats and is ‘only’ 8s. Handicaps, maybe not this one, seem to me to be an afterthought for Mullins, when his horses do not make it at graded level. I am not sure this has been a plan but his champion bumper form clearly marks him out. I can see why he is 8s. I didn’t want to take that.

His other one is a decent price as 12s I suppose, he may be worth some support. At least I won’t be leaving a 33s job behind in this race. Castello Storza has been a short price beaten fav on his last three starts – he has clearly been expected to win and the fact he hasn’t suggests he is tricky, he has hit the front/been out in front on most of them I think, after the last. He will need all of Moore’s skill, but he may look like the winner at one stage.

Runfordave again could be short enough at single figures in a race like this. He seems to have a solid enough chance and is trained by Elliot of course. If we have done ok at this point, some savers on this one and Castello may be no bad play.

 

5.30 

Tips

Pair of Brown Eyes – 1 point EW – 25/1 (general)

Solita – 1 point EW – 33/1 (general)

Shortlist 

Winning Profile.. well, previous G3 winner or higher (0/32,4p were not, not biggest of stats pools but one of the better ones in a tricky stats race for my approach it seems…if wanting to look at stats that cover all winners,and remove plenty of losers etc) and 7 or fewer career runs… (ignoring running at same distance as LTO, which is 16.5 furlongs)… that leaves just 6…

Rock The World WON 10/1 / Le Prezien / Thienval 3rd  / Pairofbrowneyes / Solita / Solar Impulse.

Le Prezien is in at 6s at the moment which I can’t see myself taking in a race like this. He also has fewer than 12 career runs which is a negative,although includes a prev winner in there. Seems short.

Those that ran at C3 or lower LTO are 1/68,6p, which could be used as a filter, Thienval and Solar Impulse fall down on that, the latter also falling down as having run over 25f+ before, but those are small numbers, esp given his price. I will ignore. Thienval is trained by Henderson though. Solar Impulse won this last year.. but does his new trainer know how to train under rules?? 2/280 in career, 0/31,0p chasers. Who the hell sends them horses. Odd. Cue, hacking up. Hughes booked. May be worth something BFSP just in case!

Rock The World looks interesting given his run in this last year, also after a break. PairofBrowneyes and Solita are massive prices and Townend has been booked on the latter which is interesting enough maybe. Hmmm.

Preview 

Well, again I seem to have a confidence from somewhere, in a race it must be said I don’t have a great record in. Maybe that is because the stats profile isn’t as solid as some, we shall see. I am hoping/part expecting, one of these two to place at worst. Madness. Fetch me the meds.

Pairofbrowneyes – he is top rated HRB and is a consistent horse, rarely out the frame. It looks like he had a sighter around here before Christmas and has some solid chase form in the book, esp that Fairyhouse race- he was beaten by an Elliot horse there who has since hacked up in some graded races. I think this is the best horse the yard own and any one of a number of placed efforts should be good enough to be in the mix here. I don’t think this looks that strong a race with many in here having major questions based on recent form. He races handily and with an error free round I can’t see him being far away. I just can’t. He has done nothing wrong and while he may not have much in hand, he may not need to be. I don’t think there are many plot jobs in here/horses with bucket loads up their sleeve. Solid handicap chase form may win the day. And he is as solid as they come in this I think. His jockey is 1/1 in festival handicaps on the Thursday/Friday at the last 3 meetings…talking of jockeys…

Solita – is interesting at a big big price. It is of great interest that Paul Townend is on here, having last ridden her around this time last year, and winning a chase on her. So, the fact they have called him up, must be some indication. Maybe. She seems versatile as to ground and has a very good record on decent ground. She also arrives here in form after that run LTO. Oh, and she is Top Rated Geegeez Speed. So, we have both top rated on the two ratings I use- what could possibly go wrong??!! She is also lightly races/unexposed over fences. That may catch her out of course but there are not many in here who could be ahead of the handicapper over fences, she could be one. I would be surprised if she wasn’t nibbled at.

Clearly these two are punts, but there is method to my madness at least. And bigger priced horses often win this. Also, the Irish are 3/33,9 places in this, which is a decent record against the number of runners. And those winners were from less heralded Festival names in T Mullins, Tony Martin, A L T Moore…

And talking of him… Dandridge is solid and gets Russell again. His placed effort in this last year may be good enough to win- I may have backed him that day and if memory serves me he may have been really unlucky in the run, I can’t remember. Anyway, Russell is up, and if you want a shorter priced one for comfort, I probably wouldn’t look past him. This must have been the plan.

Rock The World probably has a chance also, again ran well in this last year after a similar break. That is still a concern though and his price isn’t overly generous in that context. Le Prezien is too short and didn’t jump well the last day in a 5 runner race. God help fav backers here in this race- that is a ridiculous price for me, for all that he should be ahead of the handicapper. I can’t touch 6s. Solar Impulse looks gone a tad and his trainer looks awful, but if you have any change left come this point, a small BFSP nibble- head says no. Thienval- not convinced, but on the shortlist.

 

 

5.Any Other Thoughts

 

2.50 – Albert Bartlett- I wont be tipping in this  …

The World’s End – 1/2 point EW

Well I have slept on it and I have changed my mind.  I spent the time putting the stats together so I may as well use them. My hunch was an EW bet on the George horse. Nick’s comments below regarding Phil Smith and top 2 rated, which I noted pre Festival but didn’t act on, may be pertinent here. We know he stays I think, which is the unknown for Death Duty. The ground is a slight unknown but all being well he could be thereabouts.  He is in cracking form and progressive. The Irish can’t be winning ‘every’ race now. We shall see if this one can improve my recent 3 year record.. 50/1 winner, 14/1 winner, no bet, XXX. They were both when it was very soft though, which seems to help with my approach to staying races. 

The main stats point to a shortlist of: Constantine Bay / Death Duty / Monalee / The Worlds End / Wholestone

**

Other thoughts…

1.30 

Mega Fortune ?

Andy Holding, who is a top judge by all accounts, said at the Festival preview near Aintree that I went to that this one has the best form. I haven’t looked at the race at all, other than to glance at this one- Elliot and Russell. They will do for my ‘interest’ EW bet.

 

The Gold Cup

I have no strong views on this. It feels a very strange race. I wouldn’t worry about Tizzard’s form at all here- his runners this week have mainly been monster prices and have run as expected. Fox Norton went well. Native River is the obvious one and he could be sent off at a silly price. He could make all here, or take it up early enough and really put the rest under pressure. 9/2+ could look big, 5/1 EW, surely he will place?? Hmm.

Part of me thinks there will be a decent priced winner here/a slight upset. The two Jonjo horses could go well at a price, and I suppose OUTLANDER looks solid also, based on his last run which is a decent level of form in this line up. As good as what anything else has done I think?

So, those four would be my focus. I really hope Cue Card wins this but my head says he can’t. There will be a tear in the eye for sure if he does.

 

Update: I can’t quite believe Native River is 11/2 in places, seems a big price to me… I have had a little go EW- bar a fall or him being sick/ill, I can’t see how he is out the top 3? He will be up there all the way and at some point 1 or 2 are going to have to come and chase him

 

Foxhunters... we have Darran’s Preview HERE>>>

I will stick with that. Paint The Clouds and Asktheweatherman for interest. It would appear the Fav looks strong, again.

 

**

Right, that’s me done I think. It’s been a long week, but we have the Midlands National to look forward to tomorrow! I will get trends/stats up for those at some point.

Good luck with any bets today. Fingers crossed a couple of the big EW pokes can go close. Happy days if so! And if not, at least we have had a solid, if unspectacular festival.