FESTIVAL DAY 3: (complete)

Day 3

1.Intro/re cap

2.TIPS: Summary

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)

5.Any Other Thoughts

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1.Intro/re cap

Right, let’s ditch my self lpity about the big priced winner that inexplicably got away. You don’t want to be reminded about it. And I certainly don’t. It was painful and I should have learnt my lesson by now. I haven’t, and must do better moving forwards. Apologies for not tipping him, but we move on. You won’t have been more annoyed than me. But, let’s keep positive – we are still +18.5 points at the half-way stage and I would have taken that on Monday afternoon I think.

The stats shortlisting is working, generally. And that makes me excited moving forwards, both for this week and the future. And the usual daily Members post had a decent priced winner also.

 

 

I have gone a bit mad below, spraying around 12 points of the 13.5 we have left (if wishing to ensure a +5 point profit on the week) but after yesterday’s debacle I would probably rather end the week evens on the tipping front than face leaving another decent priced horse on a shortlist that I had no real reason to exclude. If I’d had more of this mindset yesterday well, then… Hopefully there is some return today, but we shall see. As ever, I head into the day in bullish mood. Do shop around for best prices/places and I think some may be worth taking BFSP on but that is more art than science. And I have broken some of my staking rules but this week is as much about fun and enjoyment and we are guaranteed not to lose on the week, tipping wise, so what the hell…

 

2.TIPS: Summary

2.10

That went well…

Presenting Percy – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) WON 9/1>11/1 (14.2 BFSP)

Jury Duty – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) 3rd 

Sutton Manor – 1 point win – 25/1 (Bet365/SkyB) 22/1-20/1 (gen) ‘UP’ 5th 

RockLander – 1 point win – 22/1 (bet365+PP) 20/1 (gen) UP

 

4.10

-0.5 points on the race… +7.5 points day heading into last race…

Tango De Juilley – 1 point EW – 25/1 (bet365) 22/1-20/1 (general) UP

Baron Alco – 1 point EW – 14/1 (general) 2nd +2.5 points 

HenryVille – 1/2 point win BFSP UP

All Together – 1/2 point win BFSP UP

(6 places Skybet/5 places a few/4 generally)

 

5.30

Doctor Harper – 1 point win – 16/1 (WH) 14/1 (general) UP

Southfield Royale – 1 point win – 9/1 (Bfred) 8/1 (general) Fell

Potters Legend – 1 point win – 16/1 (Bfred/BV) 14/1 (general) (case for BFSP given yard/may not be backed?) 4th 

Ah. A case of what might have been. Unsure of the standing start, but he was held up right out the back, made two crunchers when having to make up loads of ground. That’s jumps racing though, great run. What might have been. A shame Southfield Royale went, going ok in a good position, long way to go though. 

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

1.30

-Yorkhill (prev fest winners/won LTO)

2.10

Track LTO (16/1< guide)

-Ballymalin

-Barney Dwan

-Clondaw Cian

-Impulsive Star

-Presenting Percy (+micro jockey 5)

 

**

-Mr Mix (Nicholls 16/1<)

-Presenting Percy (Jock micro 5)

2.50 

none.

3.30 

-West Approach (micro jockey 5)

4.10 

-Un Ace (1st time HG 33/1<)

-Bouvreuil (track LTO, 16/1< guide)

-Sizing Cadelco (track LTO 16/1< guide)

-Starchitect (micro jockey 1+5)

-Diamond King (micro jockey 5)

4.50 

-Asthuria (1st time HG, 33/1<)

-Tahira (1st time HG 33/1<)

-Away In The West (jockey micro 5)

5.30

-Balbir Du Mthan (Irish class dropper)

-Doctor Harper (1st time HG, 33/1<) (1st Headgear PU/Fell LTO)

-Pendra (1st time HG, 33/1<)

-Mall Dini (prev festival winner/hncps chase/201/<)

-Potters Legend (track LTO 16/1<)

-Premier Bond (track LTO 161/<)

-Southfield Royal (track LTO 16/1<)

-Squouateur (micro 5+6)

 

 

4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)

2.10 

Tips 

Presenting Percy – 1 point win – 9/1 (general)

Jury Duty – 1 point win – 8/1 (general)

Sutton Manor – 1 point win – 25/1 (Bet365/SkyB) 22/1-20/1 (gen)

RockLander – 1 point win – 22/1 (bet365+PP) 20/1 (gen)

 

Shortlist 

I have a working list of 7. The winning profile left 13. Removing French Breds, those that had yet to run over 24f+, bottom weight (0/33,3p) leaves:

Presenting Percy / Jury Duty / Barney Dwan / El Bandit / Suttons Minor / Splash of Ginge / Rocklander / Isleofhopendreams

Preview 

There were 4 horses above I was happy to rule out and maybe one of them will leave me cursing but I really can’t back more than 4, I really can’t leave an Elliot shortlisted horse given his form, or one ridden by Russell, or any that are 20/1+!! That thinking ensured these four picked themselves really… (I can’t see Splash of Ginge winning this) Isleofhopendreams has been whacked by the handicapper, is 10, although lightly raced, and handicaps are often an afterthought for Mullins,but he will take anything right now. Barney Dwan is interesting but held by a couple of these on that exeter run and I am not sure he looks well handicapped and may want it softer.

The other four pick themselves really. The two shorties could be anything still and could still have any amount in hand. Russell is due a winner and these two won the race last year with a 25/1 shot- oh yea, he was on the shortlist and left also- what a quick learner I am!! He is thoroughly unexposed over this trip and with these Irish ones it is hard to know if the handicapper has them. I thought they had Diamond King last year in a handicap hurdle but alas they didn’t. He looks interesting for a trainer who I suspect has the Festival bug, this one could make it a perfect 2/2. Jury Duty has a similar profile – well they all do really, fairly lightly raced. This one qualified the last day and ensured his mark didn’t go up again too much. The top of the market has generally done well in this race.

Then the two biggies. Well they are on the shortlist and both trainer’s horses are clearly going well. Sutton Manor is a poke but given connections and the stats you have to back him at 25s. He may not be good enough, he may still have a tonne in hand. One way to find out.

Rocklander is probably a cracking EW bet but 4 points really should be the limit. When he runs his best he is prominently ridden so it is of some interest that he has been held up on recent runs, and then made steady progress through the field. He will appreciate this ground and around this New Course I hope they are more handy. He looks sure to run a massive race here to my eyes and get Tom George a first Festival win since 2002 I believe. He has been very unlucky here and most of his this week have run crackers. They are in form.

It is very strange to sound bullish in a race like this but I will be very surprised if we don’t have something to cheer over the last here. 1-2 or all of these must be in the mix come the end. I will be a bit broken if one of them doesn’t win in truth, but we shall see. Maybe a stats-buster is lurking somewhere.

 

4.10

Tips 

Tango De Juilley – 1 point EW – 25/1 (bet365) 22/1-20/1 (general)

Baron Alco – 1 point EW – 14/1 (general)

HenryVille – 1/2 point win BFSP

All Together – 1/2 point win BFSP

 

Shortlist 

The Winning Profile leaves: Tango De Juilley / Cold March / Diamond King / Baron Alco / Germany Calling / HenryVille / Mad Jack Mytton / All Together.

Preview 

Well….

A general point – I have ignored OR stats to an extent. Actual weight- 1/75,10p have carried 10-13 to 11-9. I am not sure if it will play a major roll here really, and in any case I do have two in the best OR range historically for this. It must be rare for the two two in the weights, certainly top weight, to be such highly rated and for there to be quite a gap between 2nd and 3rd weight. I think it may pay not to get too hung up on that and in any case we saw what Un Temps did from his lofty rating.

This race also throws up some big priced winners and those near the top of the market have generally underperformed…

Tango De Juilley – ran a stormer in this race last year of the same kind of break. He isn’t much higher in the handicap or the weights and was beaten by winning 20/1 tip ‘Empire of Dosh’ (as one of you labelled him post race) , who seems to have progressed well and Elliot thought of as a live Gold Cup contender. This race has clearly been the target, he ticks my winning profile, this is the one race Venetia does really well in (3/19,5p last 10 years) and barring an accident/him not being fit for some reason, I can’t see why he won’t run as he did last year. That should be enough for him to be in the mix. All race conditions are fine etc. 25s seems massive to me for one with Festival from. Venetia is in fine form also. Horses going well.

Baron Alco- Moore has had a placed horse in this before and this bold jumping front runner looks sure to be up there the whole way. He won’t want to take on Village Vic too early but should be in the right place around here, assuming they don’t go too fast. All conditions look fine, he has run well here on all chase runs, and has some decent novice form in the book. I am worried a tad by the last of big chase field experience but given his prominent running style he should stay out of trouble. More a concern if a hold up type. He could have any amount in hand. Interesting EW contender.

I really am expecting these two to be in the mix if they stand up and hopefully one of them places to limit any damage in a worst case scenario.

The other two are pokes but may be a big price on the machine and were on the stats shortlist and having looked at them more closely were hard to completely rule out. I am not sure Henryville likes it around here, I don’t like his running style and think he could jump better. I don’t like his chase form either. But, his price is huge, Fry is in form, so is his jockey and a patient ride may be what’s called for, depending on how this plays out. I wouldn’t be able to face tomorrow if either he or the other biggie went in un-tipped/backed. Again All-Together ticks my main stats and he has ran in some ok races for a trainer who is in cracking form. This would be his biggest win of his career to date I imagine. Some biggies have won this before and he may out-run these odds. Worth dabbling to find out. He could be a big big BFSP.

Diamond King could clearly win this but falls down on the odd one of my stats and in any case is far too short for me in a race like this. Were he 10s+ probably an automatic bet. He may hose up. At least we have a couple EW in that scenario. Mad Jack Mytton is rock bottom of HRB ratings which isn’t where you want to be and I don’t think the level of his form stacks up, also no course chase experience. Again the market can tell with jonjo’s chasers, 14/1< best, but he hasn’t got the best record in this race.

Pace- the two EW shots should be in the van most of the way round I think, which is hopefully where you want to be. A few front runners but it can be hard to come from behind here if the leaders can go their own pace and keep going, especially on decent ground. We shall see how it pans out.

 

5.30 

Tips 

Doctor Harper – 1 point win – 16/1 (WH) 14/1 (general)

Southfield Royale – 1 point win – 9/1 (Bfred) 8/1 (general)

Potters Legend – 1 point win – 16/1 (Bfred/BV) 14/1 (general)

 

Shortlist 

The Winning Profile leaves: Pendra / La Vaticane / Doctor Harper / Local Show / Southfield Royale / Hadrian’s Approach / Potters Legend / Another Hero / Alvarado

Notes: The market guides with this race, all winners 16/1< in the period. I think we can remove La Vaticane and Local Show. Alvarado is 12 and I can’t see him being sprightly enough here. I don’t think Southfield Royale stayed in this last year,(lack of sleep,different race!!) although he did go wide for most of the way round. Anyway, a more manageable shortlist of 6 or so. And the winning profile looks solid to my eyes.

A few in here cross over with some micro angles and given jockey bookings also, it is hard not to be drawn to both Pendra and Doctor Harper. Potters Legend looks of interest for a smaller yard and Jonjo has one in here. My eye is drawn to those four at the moment.

 

Preview 

Doctor Harper – well he is trained by Pipe who has a decent record in this, and he hits two of the 1st time headgear angles. He is ridden by a jockey that Elliot knows well and given his connection with the Pipes (what a tutor Martin Pipe is!- not only happy with revolutionising the jumping game, but also guiding/teaching two fine trainers) I found that of some interest. She will have come recommended which is interesting. He obviously hits the winning profile and given all of the above is a no brainer. IF on a going day, you can’t see him too far away. He may smack a few and be pulled up of course.

Southfield Royale- I backed in the 4 miler last year where given he went wide he probably nearly ran 5 miles! That race has worked out well and he was bang there a few from home. This will have been a target no doubt and he hits the track LTO micro angle and is the right end of the market for this race. His jockey is very good also. He just looks solid.

Potters Legend – again ticks my main boxes and is thoroughly unexposed at this trip. Jockey is 3/10,5 places in handicap chases at Cheltenham and clearly rides the place well. Interesting they have booked him then. He would be a big win for a small yard and if he were trained by Pipe say, with his profile, he would probably be half this price or fav. Decent ground looks ideal and he ran well here the last day, another qualifier for one of the Track LTO angles. His BFSP may be decent but I am guessing a bit there.

Those three look very solid to my eye and should give me a good spin.

Hadirian’s Approach always needs softer I think and is getting on now. He can also hit a fence if he wants to. Pendra is interesting in the first time headgear and may get a small interest. He has gone well after a break and has a decent jockey on. But Longsdon isn’t in the best of form and it will be some ask from top weight. I can’t think he has anything in hand here, which you need in a Festival handicap. The three selections could have a fair bit in hand in these conditions.

I should mention Another Hero who was on the shortlist and may well go close.. I thought they may have gone for a more experienced rider if he were more fancied, and 5lb claimers are 0/24,1p in the last 10 years. He also has no chase form at the track and I suppose that tipped the balance for the other two. Maybe this has been a plot job and Jonjo has won this before. But, i decided to leave him. Around 14s,so painful if he goes in but not as painful as some!

Pace.. I hope they are agressive on Southfield Royale given he looks a decent stayer. He could lead these, or at least be up there most of the way. The other two are usually more patiently ridden but in 1st time headgear I wonder if they will be more prominent with Dr Harper. I would be, that tactical change may do him some good. An interesting race.

 

5.Any Other Thoughts

Other brief thoughts…

1.30 – Disco ?? I like the pace angle and he could make all here and jump them silly. Remember the SkyBet offer for this race if you can. I haven’t looked at the race in any depth mind.

2.50 – Uxizandre? again mainly the pace caught my eye and we know what he did in this last year. The headgear returns and surely they will try the same forcing tactics. If he travels and jumps like he did then, he could have a lot of these in trouble. It would be nice to see Empire of Dirt run a fine race. He is short though How many will Elliot end up with – frightening to think that before the meeting he said he best chances were in the latter half of the week!!

3.30 – I wish I had listened to Jamie Codd on some of his preview panels. What a fine judge. He tipped the supreme winner 50s (goes very close if jumping off, best work horse I have ever seen- something like that) plus a couple of others inc Tiger Roll and the bumper winner I think. At least we have one of those. He was very keen on Jezki in this and could be of interest as an EW nibble maybe. Cole Harden must be worth an EW shout also. His trainer has been very bullish and his have been running well enough here.

4.50- some big priced micros to play with, which I may do if I am desperate at this stage! some £2 BFSP nibbles maybe, you never know. I believe Let’s Dance is very solid on the time/clock – well that’s what Andy Holding said at a preview I went to- ‘unbelievable numbers’ so maybe she bolts up. I know Douvan ran poorly- clearly something up- but many of Willies have probably ran to form and have done ok. I wouldn’t be put off one of his really, not just on ‘yard form’ , but it is a question.

Probably take all of those with a pinch of salt. I spent longer looking at Mad Jack Mytton than I did with those races so we shall see! That will be the ‘system/fun bet’ budget blown no doubt, although the winner of race 1 yesterday boosted those funds.

**

This feels like a big day in truth. I think it may make or break the week, profit wise. Bring it on.