3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers
4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)
5.Any Other Thoughts
I usually have a blow out on Day 1, and Day 3, so to be sitting here on 2/5 from the tips, +25 points at advised prices generally available, somewhat means we can enjoy the rest of the week. Given we bet 5 points on Day 1, if we/I stick to the 25 point ‘tipping’ budget I think that means we are guaranteed a ‘tipping’ profit of +5 points, whatever happens from here on in. When the Pipe horse won earlier, beating us in a photo, i feared the worst. Livid. That is twice I have ignored him despite being a qualifier for various micro angles. I had the feeling the weight one may go, but in the end those stats put me off. But it is the same approach that has found us two winners so I won’t moan. I can’t complain after a day like that.
We move on, with a spring in our step…
Bellshill – 1 point win – 9/1 (WH) 17/2 (bet365) 8/1 (general) 3rd
Whisper – 1/2 point win – 7/1 (bet365) 13/2 (general) 2nd
Kalondra – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/BV/Boyle) 20/1 (gen) UP
Peregrine Run – 1 point win – 10/1 (general) UP
Scoir Mear – 1 point win – 20/1 (general) UP (5th?)
Dreamcatching – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) UP
Percy Street – 1 point win – 28/1 (general) UP
3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers
-Whisper (prev festival winner/won LTO/10/1<) 2nd
-Bravissimo (Irish class drop/Trainer lightly raced) UP
-Hawk High (jockey micro 4 33/1<) UP
-Old Guard (jockey micro 4 33/1<) UP
-Douvan (prev Festival winners)
-Amazing Comedy (1st headgear) (66s+,may be worth small change EW in the XCountry race!)
-Divin Bere (Trainer/lightly raced)
-Dolos (trainer/lightly raced) (+ jockey micro 4 33/1<)
-Dream Catching (trainer/lightly raced)
-Long Haul (jockey micro 4 33/1<)
-Project Bluebook (jockey micro 4 33/1<)
Robin The Raven (1st Headgear) (missed him, cheers Paul!,was in HRB,glanced over)
Don’t Forget.. (as a guide)
- All Davy Russel rides, 20/1< SP
- All Nico De Boinville rides Day 1+ 2
- All Sam TD rides on Wednesday (4/13,6p) Esp good 9/1< , or monster prices, 25s+
- N Schofiled/B Hughes/D Russell all have decent Wed records also (small numbers former two,but worth a glance)
4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)
Bellshill – 1 point win – 9/1 (WH) 17/2 (bet365) 8/1 (general)
Whisper – 1/2 point win – 7/1 (bet365) 13/2 (general)
The ‘bonus’ stats not helping too much really at this stage. When my profile doesn’t leave a few stand outs it may be a case of leaving the race, or just attacking it normally. Whisper is a micro angle above, goes for Henderson and has Russell up… maybe it is just that simple?… Pondering… I may go through runner by runner and see what a ‘normal’ analysis throws up…
A good night’s sleep appears to clear the head, especially with races you are unsure on, initially at least. I must admit, when tired and bedraggled on Monday evening, after a very long day, I had put a line through Tully East- you get lazy when you are tired. ( a focus on his last two runs which seemed poor- on reflection they were decent races,and if that race was a plan,he wasn’t going to run much better) With fresh eyes in the morning I decided to attack the shortlist again, and that seemed to do the trick…
And I think it may have done so with this race. I have gone from picking splinters out from some excruciating fence sitting to concluding that if Bellshill has a clear round, he wins this. He may fall/UR, but his price allows that dart in what is a pumped up Grade 2 I think. Grade 1 by name maybe, this year at least.
Having looked back at the Bonus Stats, bar a Top 3 finish LTO, this one hits every single other profile point. Every one. All of the 10/10 stats etc. He also ran at Leopardstown LTO (5/25,10p last 10 years) and is trained by Mullins, 2/15,5p in the race. You can’t keep a good man down and this may well get him on the board. Now, he was laboured the last day- maybe at that trip he simply couldn’t lay up with them in a G1. He has form over 24f+ and on decent ground. Now, that fall LTO..
I did some digging, Mullins has sent 9 horses to the Festival who Fell last time out in the last 5 years, one won and two placed. And they were all last year, 5 runners, 1 won, 2 places. In single figure fields that improves to 1 win, 1 place, the win being Black Hercules in a chase and ‘Jack Adam’ who also Fell before his 2nd in the Gold Cup. I suspect this one has had some intense schooling and the better ground/longer trip/faster pace may help.
There are also a few who like to get on with it in here. I can see Ruby at his majestic best, holding him up, getting him jumping, going wide for daylight if needed, and powering up the hill late. Cue – fall at the first! 🙂
At that price, given everything above, I have decided I must have a go.
I have had a blank on Day 1 the last three Festivals (so yesterday was quite a pleasant surprise!) but usually have a superb Tuesday, with previous winners in all three races covered today during the last three Festivals. Here’s hoping he can be another.
Now, him and Whisper are the only Grade 1 winners in this race. Well, Royal Vacation is, but not really. Might Bite is in a sense, had he not fallen.
Well he falls down on a few stats but is a micro qualifier, is ridden by Russel, for the in form Henderson. He has a touch of class and this feels like a very strange race where some stat or other is going to get broken.
So, he is more straightforward maybe. I wanted something on him. I have a stamina niggle over a stiff run 3m around here over fences, and I am not overly confident. But, trust in connections may prove to be wise. 7s allows a dart.
Of the rest…
Might Bite – I have decided he is too short given the questions- the track, being taken on for the lead, his jumping, his attitude (people keep telling me to avoid ‘Scorpions’ like the plague. A rogue, apparently- you can tell how far breeding is on my radar! Good job really, as I wouldn’t have had Tiger Roll if it was) Anyway, I don’t like backing horses around 7/2 or shorter generally, why the hell would I start here – the most competitive racing you can find. I would be cheating myself. So, he can beat me. Part of me thinks he might hack up, but with 25 points banked, you can enjoy them more when they do so, not carrying a penny.
French Breds have a poor record in this in the last decade, 0/25,2p, maybe that stat gets broken – it indicated the Irish/GB more stoutly bred horses are the place to focus. There are a few french breds here, maybe one wins this year. All of the others fall down on 2 or more big stats I think. A few are handicappers really and I want to avoid them.
It does feel open, but I feel rather bullish. Maybe it is the pro plus I’ve just consumed to get me through the morning. I always struggle to sleep this week, must be the adrenaline.
So, those two will do in what feels an open renewal. If Bellshill doesn’t make errors I think he is the most likely winner, based on my approach – and in truth even ignoring it and just looking at the horses in a more ‘traditional’ way, he stands out. If he hadn’t fallen LTO I suspect he would be 2-4 points shorter here.
Kalondra – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/BV/Boyle) 20/1 (gen)
Peregrine Run – 1 point win – 10/1 (general)
Scoir Mear – 1 point win – 20/1 (general)
‘The winning profile’ (exc ‘positives/negatives’ leaves a shortlist of just 4:
Kolandra / Automated / Peregrine Run / Scoir Mear
Well this exact same approach worked on Day 1 and again I am simply not over thinking things here.
The three selections are unexposed and still open to any amount of improvement in handicaps, while having shown a fair bit already.
Kolandra hacked up the last day and his ratings rise wouldn’t have stopped him then. Of course this is much deeper and some in here may have plenty more in hand but given his recent form , his place on the shortlist and his price, I had to have a go. He is also the only one in the ‘winning ratings bands’ from the stats , which are only a guide, really, but interesting nonetheless.
Peregrine Run rarely runs a bad race and has the benefit of course experience. I think the soft ground found him out the last day so he should appreciate these conditions and the form of that last race could work out well- the winner is decent. He is also the right end of the market for this race, historically. 10/1 is fair and he looks a decent horse. Those that ran in a G1 or 2 LTO don’t have a great record but no horse is bombproof against my profile, bar Kolandra. He will appreciate the ground and looks sure to run a big race I think.
Scoir Mear – well this has probably been the target given connections and the trainer doesn’t mess around when sending one here, 2/5 at the Festival last 5 years, all in handicaps. Luckily he didn’t win the last day, handy that!! He didn’t go up much and again has proved a liking for decent ground. I think he looks fascinating at a price and more than happy to have a stab.
Three will do in this. I discounted Automated based on ground- all his best form is in hock deep mud and he hasn’t run that much on decent ground. Also the handicapper thumped him as well and he has had many a career run also, inc on the flat. He may leave me with egg on my face and I may throw some change at him, given his trainer.
But I didn’t want four in this and I didn’t want more than 3 points, and I don’t like betting just 1/2s really.
Of the rest..
Well clearly something else may win. This race is full of unexposed hot pots but these are the only 4 that hit my winning profile. I probably haven’t mentioned the winner but you know why I am on them. Ignoring the stats, on paper/recent form they are interesting enough anyway to my eyes.
PACE… well all three selections are usually patiently ridden and as we saw again on the Old Course, that can pay. Nothing held on from the front from memory, the patiently ridden ones doing best. There are no loads of front runners on paper here but I have long learnt that if in doubt at the Festival, in a big field, assume they will tank along. Hopefully these three swing into it turning for home and are battling out the finish!! (ha, that isn’t happening, but you can dream!)
Dreamcatching – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) (BFSP poss,price may not move..?)
Percy Street – 1 point win – 28/1 (general)
‘The Winning Profile’ leaves just 3:
Flying Tiger WON 33/1, 57 BFSP/ Dreamcatching / Percy Street
Dreamcacthing– well I have to back him here given he is on a shortlist of three in a race that the Champion Trainer has a great record in. I have to trust this stats approach, it seems to work, and giving myself a headache by looking at the ‘form’ of each runner isn’t one I plan on ever taking at the Festival.He fits the profile for this and is also a micro qualifier for Nicholls lightly raced angle. 5lb claimers have a decent record in this race also so no concerns on that front, and young Stan is decent enough. This horse also hacked up the last day and could have any amount to come. I can’t see how at a double figure price, I can’t have a go! So, I have.
I will ponder the others, given Henderson’s form I think I will have to have something on Percy Street…
Percy Street – well that was obvious wasn’t it- another where I feel I have to have a go. He is on the shortlist, trained by a trainer in cracking Festival form already and by one who has won this race. Those last two factors ensured I picked him over the Nick Williams horse, who I may have a saver on at BFSP- but I don’t want more than 2 points bet on this race and I don’t like having less than a full point on a horse if I can help it, so I had to knock one out. There is a chance that the strong pace/stiff finish brings out more from this one, given he was a decent stayer on the flat. Maybe it all happened a bit quick at the business end LTO and this is now a handicap. These horses are young, unexposed and can make rapid improvements based on the course/how races are run. That would be the reason for dramatic improvement. Nico De Boinville is a jockey to watch on Days 1 and 2 also. So, he will do, esp at that price.
I could analyse the rest but there isn’t much point and I won’t be adding much. Most are lightly raced, most are in form, 2-4 of them are likely to improve massively and suddenly appear to have any amount in hand.
There are a few micro angles in this one, but none at monster odds, bar Nicholls other one ridden by STD. Maybe some interest there.
5.Any Other Thoughts
General... the big boys came to the fore, as they usually do, and you probably won’t go much wrong sticking with the likes of Henderson and Elliot for the rest of the week. Pipe clearly hasn’t lost the knack of targeting a race either. Clearly they have their string primed to perfection for this week. Mullins, while having no winners, had a few placed horses, inc one at 33s, to suggest he will get something on the board. Greatrex and Skelton both had horses go well also. And those Irish trainers who rarely send runners over, but mean business when they do, had a good day…well, Mr Flemming. Hopefully today is the turn of T Mullins for us. A couple of the micro angles had some big placed horses at 50s and 25s, plus Un Temps winning, to suggest they may pick out a nice priced winner at some point. Being on it will be the key! It is time for Nicholls to come to the party you feel…
Members Post: Don’t forget the usual TTP Jumps Notes which you can read HERE>>>
There are two big priced horses of interest and another who may drift to 11.00 on BF and become a ‘Rp 10/1+’ qualifier. RP 10/1+ horses have been very profitable to back all year, as have bigger priced horses generally.
Back to The Festival..
And with a large pinch of salt…
Neon Wolf could be special but i won’t be taking that price. Two EW shots against the field may be Willoughby Court WON 16/1>14/1 (got my trip to the Festival preview at Aintree for that one,so that was worth it) (some impressive times/figures) and Shattered Love. UP The former has a ground niggle also, but more an unknown given kept to deep ground. They must think it will be fine if he runs. The latter- well it is that man Elliot so anything is possible. She is unexposed and seemingly in great form, with a level of ability. You suspect she may hit the frame here at least.
Well we have three here. I find it interesting that Tombstone is so short in this… it makes me think he might bolt up. They clearly think a lot of him and apparently he was being seriously considered for The Champion Hurdle. If that is the case, and he has that much potential (Supreme 4th last year) then we could all be playing for places. I feel a bit dirty backing him at 4s but as a saver of sorts it may not be unwise. We shall see. I should just let him beat me at that price I suppose. Automated lurks on my shortlist also, the only one of the four I don’t have money on, again, maybe a saver. I think the ground may be too lively, his mark too high, but you never know.
Get the popcorn, feet up, enjoy the spectacle.
No strong views in this really – I know I will end up having some change on Sausalito Sunrise here at 16s+. He has no experience around here (big negative) at all and that will probably ensure he is out with the washing. But he does have a touch of class and if taking to them could out-run his odds. In any case, they may be trying to find the new Balthazar King and if he runs well here then note him for all future races at this track, from autumn onwards. Hobbs is in fine form and he may reward an EW tickle. That’s if he doesn’t collapse into a bank or plough through a hedge. Ironically he will probably come down at a regulation fence having said all that!
Well covered but I suppose Dolos is worth a mention given he crops up on a micro or two and it is STD on a Wednesday and for Nicholls- some strong stats there. Backing the wrong Nicholls one would be annoying and I may throw some ‘system’ change at him.
Hmmm… no idea.
Stick with Mullins maybe, he could be due a winner by this point, and so could Ruby. Next Destination at a double figure price. Debuchet is interesting, as his canny trainer doesn’t send many here but they usually run well. Cue Card the only 4yo to have won in last 20 years though, but you never know. I see Joseph O’Brien and Davy Russel team up also, but no idea if he is good enough.
Right, that’s the lot for today. With any luck there is at least one winner there somewhere. Good luck with whatever you go with/pick out.