FREE DAILY POST: 25/02/17 (complete)

Eider Tips/Systems

Ah, well I keep letting myself down in these sodding chases. It is frustrating when you get the three at the top of the market beat and a biggie wins that you didn’t give much chance to, or even mention!

Kingswell Theatre- well what can we say about him.. of most concern is that the notes I made post race were not made pre race- that is an issue.. now clearly I may not have ended up going for him, but yet again I didn’t really give myself a chance- too much emphasis on those last two runs. Lazy analysis. You can’t be lazy in this game. So, what could I have picked up pre race? He was lightly raced over fences, certainly compared to many in here- 2/9 over fences. In those two wins he destroyed moderate fields. He was unexposed/untested over this kind of trip, certainly at this level. He dropped in class from his last run, and returned to better ground. What of his form? Well he had a decent run within his last three starts- that run at Chepstow was decent, on his first start of the season. He raced prominently there. The form had been franked. He was outpaced at times. That was decent enough form. At Cheltenham he lost a shoe, so, that could have been an excuse. At Warwick he was never in it, could never go with them. But most in this race would have probably run similar. Then there was the final piece- cheekpieces returned. Given he had raced prominently I didn’t think that would be the indicator for a more prominent ride. I have said it before – look out for first time headgear and the possibility they will send a horse forward. So, that was interesting. Michael Scudamore can clearly train them to stay. So, there was plenty there- ticked plenty of boxes you want for an outsider. Plenty to learn again, do you ever get the feeling I keep going around in circles! One day. I didn’t even mention him. Poor.

Moving on…

TIPS

Eider Chase

2.45 Newcastle

Berea Boru – 1.5 points win– 20/1 (SJ/Coral) 18/1 (bet365) 16/1 (gen) PU

Streets Of Promise – 0.5 point win – 20/1 (Bet365) 18/1, 16/1 (general) PU

*oh well at least the stats/shortlist worked. The only positive there. Less said about the efforts of my two the better. Not sure what was up with BB, clearly a monkey who was never really going. Disappointing. I can just about live with a shortlist horse winning at 10s, was single figures when looking last night and have gone for ones at a bigger price. Influenced I suppose by the PU LTO and the fact that Haydock race hadn’t worked out too well, 1/27 since, but he clearly relishes the mud and is a dour stayer. On that run he will be worth keeping onside in many a big race when it is really testing. All eyes on The Welsh National maybe? Decent run from the second also. Heavy clearly no problem and he looks to have muddy staying chases in him. 

 

Well I had a look at some trends/stats for this on the members post and there were 4 stats which stood out to me, that all of the last 10 winners had hit. Those stats left a shortlist of..

Streets of Promise / Out Sam / Smooth Stepper / Berea Boru / Knockanrawley 2nd  / Mysteree WON 10/1 / Alto De Mottes

Now, this is going to be a slog, apparently their going stick reading is the lowest it has been for many a year.

This same approach has worked well this season, at least on the shortlisting front, generally. Thankfully I was able to find the winner of last week’s big chase and with any luck I may have done so again…

Berea Boru – 1.5 points may be a bit bullish but I have a good feeling that he may be here to run a cracker. Bowen doesn’t come up here very often, indeed he is 1/1 in the last 5 years. Having suffered a virus/cough his yard are now bouncing again and he is in very good recent form, 3/11,4p in the last 14 days. It may be of some interest that Sean Bowen comes up here also- in the sense that his boss, Paul Nicholls, has no runners up here today and he has a few runners elsewhere on the day. A positive of sorts maybe. Then there is the horse. He just relishes heavy- 5/8 in the mud, the only times he has won. He has Chepstow and Ffos Las heavy ground wins to his name so in theory ground won’t be an excuse- stamina may be, it is an unknown. As it is for many of them. But, we get a price. He is 3/8 over fences and is lightly enough raced. They also change the headgear and put the visor on. His mark is dropping and he was clearly chucked in the deep end LTO. This is the kind of race you target, and with any luck this has been the case with him. He has raced prominently in the past and I hope Bowen has him up there from the off. In ground like this you don’t want to be that far back. He may just be able to lob along with many in here dropping away down to the ground. I suspect any won’t handle it. He ticks a couple of other stats positives as well, 11-6+ on his back, and he is in the perfect ratings range, 131-139.

All in all, he is the main one I want onside. He ticks many boxes in here and I should get a run for my money. I will be gutted if I don’t. The last few furlongs may be an unknown but he may just keep plodding at the same pace. If he is the only one up there by then, it will be hard to make ground on him. That’s the plan anyway.

Streets Of Promise… well the big weight stats in this are good, even in heavy, historically. I was interested in this one LTO and she looks interesting enough. She may have done too much/needed the run. I also like the fact that she front runs, so for a time, with any luck, will be up there. Again she is another who is proven in the slop, 3/5,5p in heavy. She is 2/6,4p over fences and has course form. At the price, given the proven form in heavy (which marks her out against a few others on the shortlist) I was happy to have onside. Again, who knows if she will stay, but there is some promise there. Hopefully she can get into a rhythm on the front end.

So, they will do. They should be up there for most of the way with any luck. Holding up BB would be an error for me but as long as he wins, I won’t really mind 🙂

Clearly I could talk about some of the others but it is a Friday evening, and I can’t really be bothered 🙂

Be warned… I have mainly focused on the stats shortlist. I trust this approach in big races. Having flicked through the others none of them actually jump out at me. It would be nice to see Russe Blanc run well, I suppose of those that fall down on the stats he is the one I am weary off. He should relish this test I would have thought, plodding on at the same pace. Sue Smith is 0/11,0p in this in the last decade, for interest.

Maybe something else on the shortlist will win but there were various reasons I was happy to leave them.

**

I am going to leave the Betbright as I have run out of time to go through it in any detail, inc the shortlist…

For interest..

The three stats that recent winners have all hit include: Won 2m5f+, 9 or fewer handicap chase runs, Top 3 one of last 3 starts.

That leaves: Aso / Three Musketeers / Double Shuffle 2nd / Irish Saint / Finger On The Switch / Pilgrims Bay WON 25/1 (damn)

We shall see if that holds up or not. I suppose given their odds/unexposed profile, Finger On The Switch looks the most interesting from those although a big step up in class/quality here. My TTP stats cover a few of the biggies in this also.

Good luck with whatever you go with.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

K Lee Chasers- (12/1<)

2.45 Newc – Mountainous (x2 angles)

4.15 Chep – Grey Gold (x2)

 

Trainer /Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.45 Newc – Straidnahanna (12/1<)

4.30 Newc- Special Wells (12/1<)

4.15 Chep – Grey Gold (12/1<)

 

Handicap Chase/Hurdle Portfolio– Live Test

3.35 Kemp- Double Shuffle

 

**

Good luck with any bets.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. Opening Batsman 3.335 Kempton Harry Fry targeted this race for him won and 2nd last year
    Kempton is the horse course going will fine
    Got to have a massive shout at 14/1

  2. Looks like 2.45 Newc wil be interesting Karry Lee is looking for havy for Mountainous it means she wants to win
    as usually to much nice races in one day

  3. Hi Josh
    I am no expert in these matters but I thought you night like muse over the following figures for STREETS of PROMISE
    Horses with 1 run this season.
    Past winners had the following runs that season
    3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 5 7 4 3 6 6
    None have won this race with just the 1 run.
    This will also apply to your Knockanrawley in your shortlist.
    I have done my own deductions based on your stats. However OUT SAM is the only one that we both agree on this time( successful last 2 weeks) with a saver on Russe Blanc (weary of) and Gervey Chambertin.
    Here’s to a good contest.

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike, well it’s a good job I only went 1/2 a point! In the last 10 years only 12 have arrived here with 1 run, 1 have placed, 7 of those were sent off 16/1+. It may well be that she isn’t hard fit enough, but given the odds, her running style/lightly raced/heavy ground/stats shortlist I had to have a nibble. She may well not stay in any case!
      Out Sam- yep, again a nice profile – he has had a few goes in big fields and yet to fire and while he has winning form in soft, heavy is an unknown. On that basis I was happy to leave but I won’t be shocked if he wins.
      GL, hopefully someone on these pages nabs the winner!

  4. I think that Russe Blanc (a former star tip of Josh) will like the ground in The Eider and may be coming back to form, 12/1 about. At Wolves in the evening I like Glenalmond 8.15 and Athletic 8.45. An old fav of mine is Double Shuffle who goes in the 3.35 KP and he may be coming back to a winning mark?

    1. Blimey,those were the days! 🙂 star tips! Yep RB has a chance and a nice return to form LTO. Too exposed ok terms of stats but there to be broken! He will relish the ground and should just keep going. For your sake hopefully Hughes doesn’t have him too far back. Final 2/3 furlongs a question for most in here. GL

  5. I see Berea Boru has been Pricewise’d. That means the bookies will revert to the evening price for a wee while tomorrow morning. 365 will have 18/1 available between 8.30 and maybe 8.45, and a few others (BF, Hills, Sky, Fred, 188) will have 16/1 at either 8.30 or 9am.

  6. Tough day tomorrow and I’ve spent the past 4-5 hours trying to figure it out so this will be short and sweet. I’ve had a severe case of seconditis this week (Hartside at the start of the week was the worst) so you probably want to go e/w on all of these. The Eidar looks tricky and I didn’t fancy anything which fits the trends but the one I want Russe Blanc. I just think you want a proven one who thrives on heavy. The last three times its been heavy a horse around 11st has won so I think you want to be in the lower half of the weights. I have also thrown a couple of quid e/w on Emperor’s Choice who I keep coming back to given Venetia doesn’t come here very often and the first time blinkers are interesting.

    In the Betbright I’ve gone with Viva Steve. He was fancied for both the Welsh National and Betfred Classic but is much better right handed. I personally think he is better on good ground and he gets that tomorrow. I don’t think his jockey gave him a good ride in this 12 months ago but I go back to that Kempton run 14 months 1.5 lengths behind The Last Samurai and still think there is more to come. Barry has his first ever ride for Fergal which I thought was eye-catching. I presume Paddy has obligations to Jean Bishop and wouldn’t have had the choice. He fits most of the trends bar the number of handicap chases (he has 15 and ideal would be 11).

    My NAP is Captain Bob in the 20:45 at Wolves who drops down in grade after just missing out on his re-appearance run and will hopefully come on for it. Gets to run off the same mark. There is very little pace here so I am hoping he will be able to lead from pillar to post.

    I tipped up Kingston Kurrajong LTO when he was given one of the worst rides I have seen this year so I have to give him another chance in the 14:20 at Lingfield. The good news is the much more capable George Baker is on board. The negatives are his draw could be better but at least he is a much bigger price than LTO. Attwater is 2/11 with horses having their first run for him following a switch.

    Finally whilst every man and his dog is backing him Ballyculla looks a good bet in the 15:40 at Chepstow who I think will be a slog like Newcastle tomorrow which he should enjoy. He will have a nice low weight with Tom Greatrex taking off 7lbs agian. Drops down from a Grade 3 into a class 2 here and is actually 1lb lower than his 4th LTO. I am not sure why Elliott is sending over Jury Duty over unless he needs to quality him for the Pertemps but given his mark I would be surprised if he does much more than the minimum to get in (which by my understanding is top 8).

    1. Hi Nick, re your nap I have heard a solid word for Athletic, in terms of their being hopes that it will go onto better things. We shall see?

      Not much to add to the ones I put up Friday evening, except I understand that Gary Moore expects Etaad to go in, 5.00 LP. Beware through as this horse whilst having some ability can on occasion be a dodge pot.

      Good luck today and not long until Cheltenham, even if most of the better horses are out injured.

  7. I think Theatre Guide 3.35 K,at least e/w
    3:00 KEMPTON i most like Elgin
    elders is hard to find wnners,Suzie is best here so Straidnahanna,
    Will stay on distance, Suzie is able to preper horse for big race
    In a case of going,all Suzie horses have soft /heavy ability
    Alto Des Mottes e/w Russe Blanc,ew

  8. A massive conundrum in The Eider, do you go with your head (the stats) or your heart (the blindingly obvious heavy going). I love to see this kind of battle, the stats men (of which Josh is one of the outstanding exponents) v the older fashioned (form analysts of which there are few still around).

    I don’t know whether its an age thing (I’m mid 50’s – in fact you don’t get anyone called Ian under 40 any more do you??) but to me its a case of whatever the stats say, a 3 miler is going to struggle over 4 miles in some of the lowest Going stick ratings, I have ever seen.

    So I will have had a small dabble on Russe Blanc (got 12/1 at 1pm yesterday) and Shotgun Paddy (got 8/1 same time) as they have all the necessary experience to “plod on….and on….and on”.

    Will be “hats off to the stats boys though it the 3 milers do win it….big hats off”!

    Intriguing!

    Good Luck all!

  9. My ratings for the Eider are tight. 56 Out Sam 55 Gevrey Chambertin 54 Russe Blanc 54 Knockanrawley. Of these, Russe Blanc ticks all the boxes of Distance, Going, Good run LTO and trainer in form so he will be my small EW wager.

  10. A couple who should run well – Carrig Cathal in Ireland 2.55 and Fattsota at Lingfield 4.25. Both have the class to win and claims are pretty obvious. Too short for me individually but a fun double might return a reasonable pot at around 30-1.

    2 Nicholls runners that seem to have good chances of going well Irish Saint (targeted) and Red Hanrahan (although this qualifier is a minefield for multiple reasons, but the horse made a promising move 2 or 3 out last time after a break. Suspect Nicholls won’t be playing silly buggers in this and Red may be there to win, which is not what can be said about a few of the others).

    The Eider looks like it might be one of those you look at afterwards and see a string of Ps after the first 4 home, even those you thought would handle it before. In among the bigger prices Harry may have one last go left in him. Any form with Carrigdhoun is worth noting, that horse has the heart of a lion as they say, and I can’t forget that Cheltenham 4 miler in the dim history where Harry jumped for fun (allbeit off much better ground).

    Harry has a piece of fairly recent heavy ground class 2 form with Rigadin De Beauchene who is no slouch on a good day, and could end up being one of the last 6 running. At about 25s with the bookies (though 33 or 40 would be more enticing) and maybe 50 up on BF it may be worth a small interest for first 4, maybe with Milborough one of those others still standing.

    The last Sir Harry Lewis to land a big one?? Logic says no, heart says maybe. You won’t be surprised at any from 16 winning it though. Probably one to savour rather than bet …but we can’t leave these big races alone, can we.

  11. 3 First – time geldings run today and Constantino is the one who most interests me today. A shade unfortunate not to win over this CD in December any improvement will see him go very close today. Blinkers replace cheekpieces and Jamie Spencer rides.

  12. Nice call Pilgrims Bay Josh… I had it and River Wylde, but ruined it somewhat by backing to many…..others. Curses.
    But a lovely winner nevertheless.

    Cheers mate.

    1. Well not really a ‘call’ Tony, but pleased my approach to the stats/angles I look at are working well leading up to the festivals. That is 4 big races in a row now (Betfair Hurdle/GN Trial/2 today) where the stats shortlists have found the winner- so, a positive there. Glad you used the info to find him. I didn’t look in any depth- not sure if I would have found him- but I suppose with the mindset of him being the biggest price/unexposed chaser/unexposed at trip, may have been a reason for an EW bet!
      Still, if those ‘winning profiles’ continue to shortlist winners, I will find enough with any luck!
      TTP had one of those occasional off days, you never know, the Bowen NHF runner may romp home at 60s (unlikely, you never know!)

  13. always find that this weekend is the toughest to find a winner, for tipsters and in genaral, can’t remember many anyone tipping anything on these races for the last 20 tears,as much as I try during this time or anyone else of proven racing knowledge, it always surprises me, from now just going to give this weekend a miss

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