Ah, well I keep letting myself down in these sodding chases. It is frustrating when you get the three at the top of the market beat and a biggie wins that you didn’t give much chance to, or even mention!
Kingswell Theatre- well what can we say about him.. of most concern is that the notes I made post race were not made pre race- that is an issue.. now clearly I may not have ended up going for him, but yet again I didn’t really give myself a chance- too much emphasis on those last two runs. Lazy analysis. You can’t be lazy in this game. So, what could I have picked up pre race? He was lightly raced over fences, certainly compared to many in here- 2/9 over fences. In those two wins he destroyed moderate fields. He was unexposed/untested over this kind of trip, certainly at this level. He dropped in class from his last run, and returned to better ground. What of his form? Well he had a decent run within his last three starts- that run at Chepstow was decent, on his first start of the season. He raced prominently there. The form had been franked. He was outpaced at times. That was decent enough form. At Cheltenham he lost a shoe, so, that could have been an excuse. At Warwick he was never in it, could never go with them. But most in this race would have probably run similar. Then there was the final piece- cheekpieces returned. Given he had raced prominently I didn’t think that would be the indicator for a more prominent ride. I have said it before – look out for first time headgear and the possibility they will send a horse forward. So, that was interesting. Michael Scudamore can clearly train them to stay. So, there was plenty there- ticked plenty of boxes you want for an outsider. Plenty to learn again, do you ever get the feeling I keep going around in circles! One day. I didn’t even mention him. Poor.
Berea Boru – 1.5 points win– 20/1 (SJ/Coral) 18/1 (bet365) 16/1 (gen) PU
Streets Of Promise – 0.5 point win – 20/1 (Bet365) 18/1, 16/1 (general) PU
*oh well at least the stats/shortlist worked. The only positive there. Less said about the efforts of my two the better. Not sure what was up with BB, clearly a monkey who was never really going. Disappointing. I can just about live with a shortlist horse winning at 10s, was single figures when looking last night and have gone for ones at a bigger price. Influenced I suppose by the PU LTO and the fact that Haydock race hadn’t worked out too well, 1/27 since, but he clearly relishes the mud and is a dour stayer. On that run he will be worth keeping onside in many a big race when it is really testing. All eyes on The Welsh National maybe? Decent run from the second also. Heavy clearly no problem and he looks to have muddy staying chases in him.
Well I had a look at some trends/stats for this on the members post and there were 4 stats which stood out to me, that all of the last 10 winners had hit. Those stats left a shortlist of..
Streets of Promise / Out Sam / Smooth Stepper / Berea Boru / Knockanrawley 2nd / Mysteree WON 10/1 / Alto De Mottes
Now, this is going to be a slog, apparently their going stick reading is the lowest it has been for many a year.
This same approach has worked well this season, at least on the shortlisting front, generally. Thankfully I was able to find the winner of last week’s big chase and with any luck I may have done so again…
Berea Boru – 1.5 points may be a bit bullish but I have a good feeling that he may be here to run a cracker. Bowen doesn’t come up here very often, indeed he is 1/1 in the last 5 years. Having suffered a virus/cough his yard are now bouncing again and he is in very good recent form, 3/11,4p in the last 14 days. It may be of some interest that Sean Bowen comes up here also- in the sense that his boss, Paul Nicholls, has no runners up here today and he has a few runners elsewhere on the day. A positive of sorts maybe. Then there is the horse. He just relishes heavy- 5/8 in the mud, the only times he has won. He has Chepstow and Ffos Las heavy ground wins to his name so in theory ground won’t be an excuse- stamina may be, it is an unknown. As it is for many of them. But, we get a price. He is 3/8 over fences and is lightly enough raced. They also change the headgear and put the visor on. His mark is dropping and he was clearly chucked in the deep end LTO. This is the kind of race you target, and with any luck this has been the case with him. He has raced prominently in the past and I hope Bowen has him up there from the off. In ground like this you don’t want to be that far back. He may just be able to lob along with many in here dropping away down to the ground. I suspect any won’t handle it. He ticks a couple of other stats positives as well, 11-6+ on his back, and he is in the perfect ratings range, 131-139.
All in all, he is the main one I want onside. He ticks many boxes in here and I should get a run for my money. I will be gutted if I don’t. The last few furlongs may be an unknown but he may just keep plodding at the same pace. If he is the only one up there by then, it will be hard to make ground on him. That’s the plan anyway.
Streets Of Promise… well the big weight stats in this are good, even in heavy, historically. I was interested in this one LTO and she looks interesting enough. She may have done too much/needed the run. I also like the fact that she front runs, so for a time, with any luck, will be up there. Again she is another who is proven in the slop, 3/5,5p in heavy. She is 2/6,4p over fences and has course form. At the price, given the proven form in heavy (which marks her out against a few others on the shortlist) I was happy to have onside. Again, who knows if she will stay, but there is some promise there. Hopefully she can get into a rhythm on the front end.
So, they will do. They should be up there for most of the way with any luck. Holding up BB would be an error for me but as long as he wins, I won’t really mind 🙂
Clearly I could talk about some of the others but it is a Friday evening, and I can’t really be bothered 🙂
Be warned… I have mainly focused on the stats shortlist. I trust this approach in big races. Having flicked through the others none of them actually jump out at me. It would be nice to see Russe Blanc run well, I suppose of those that fall down on the stats he is the one I am weary off. He should relish this test I would have thought, plodding on at the same pace. Sue Smith is 0/11,0p in this in the last decade, for interest.
Maybe something else on the shortlist will win but there were various reasons I was happy to leave them.
I am going to leave the Betbright as I have run out of time to go through it in any detail, inc the shortlist…
The three stats that recent winners have all hit include: Won 2m5f+, 9 or fewer handicap chase runs, Top 3 one of last 3 starts.
That leaves: Aso / Three Musketeers / Double Shuffle 2nd / Irish Saint / Finger On The Switch / Pilgrims Bay WON 25/1 (damn)
We shall see if that holds up or not. I suppose given their odds/unexposed profile, Finger On The Switch looks the most interesting from those although a big step up in class/quality here. My TTP stats cover a few of the biggies in this also.
Good luck with whatever you go with.
K Lee Chasers- (12/1<)
2.45 Newc – Mountainous (x2 angles)
4.15 Chep – Grey Gold (x2)
Trainer /Jockey Combo – Live Test
2.45 Newc – Straidnahanna (12/1<)
4.30 Newc- Special Wells (12/1<)
4.15 Chep – Grey Gold (12/1<)
Handicap Chase/Hurdle Portfolio– Live Test
3.35 Kemp- Double Shuffle
Good luck with any bets.