Tom George Chasers (any odds)
2.25 Leic- Storming Strumpet 2nd 9/4…*
*twice now he has been outstayed up that Leicester hill near the end,having looked like the winner. Travels well,jumps ok…maybe he needs a flatter finish, one for Ludlow maybe, goes on good so no shock were we to see him at Perth one day, during the summer- trainer likes both those tracks.
4.20 Leic- Song Saa WON 4/6
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– Live Test
3.10 Leic- Always On The Run 2nd 10/1
3.35 Kel – Top Billing UP
This is now the ‘Form! Form! Form!’ TEST section…
In this little corner of the blog I will attempt to go on a journey of improving my use of ‘form’ and form analysis and using this as a starting point. And in general just trying to improve my ability at ‘attacking a race cold’, which is my code for not having the comfort blanket of some stats research The main core really is looking at horses that have run well recently (within 30 days or 45 days generally…some thinking that the longer ago a race was, the less meaningful the form,although there will always be exceptions) in races that have produced subsequent winners/placed horses. These subsequent performers may have won at the same level, or competed well in a higher class. Distance beaten can be important also – were the front two miles clear of the rest (Pauling’s handicap hurdle winner at Towcester yesterday an example of that- last race front two were way ahead of the rest and the winner that day was smart/improving) etc.
That is the starting point. From there we can then look at the horse, race conditions,trainer, jockey, pace- all the other things that maybe I would have used as ‘starting points’ but that should maybe underpin any ‘form’ analysis. In theory, at least we know any selection has been running in a race (s) that has been working out well. That should be a solid starting point, in theory.
And now for practice…
Diamond Indulgence – 1 point win – (test) 15/2 (SB/BV) 7/1 (general) (8/1 general…seems to be on the drift already,and money seems to talk in the AW?, gulp…)* UP
*oh well. It looked ok on paper! Nibbled back into 7s from 10s, she hasn’t really gone a yard there through latter half of the race- that wasn’t her running, either hating the kick-back, or not like the surface, or having an off day. Moving on, swiftly…
I am casting my eye back to two runs ago at Newcastle over the straight 6f. The selection ran on well that day into 4th, on her first handicap. In front of her was Pushkin Museum- 2/2 at C6 since that run, in front of him, Spirit of Zebedee – 1/1 , C6 since that run… NOTEBOOK KLAXON! In front of all of those, and the winner of that race- FIRST EXCEL.. who may well be no price NTO, esp if returned to CD, but clearly that form, for C6 level, can’t have worked out much better. He would appear to have beaten the right horses. I would like to think this is what form experts call ‘solid form’.
So, that was a decent race for the level. Given the trip and her inexperience,the selection ran well. She then ran at Kempton 19 days ago… that race has produced a winner who was down the field – not so much a strong form race… BUT…she again ran well. The winner dictated all the way that day and DI ran into a bit of trouble also. But, as she did at Newcastle, she stayed on well, and wasn’t given a really hard time.
We have the form I think, but we need more…
The first one is the step up in trip…to 7f. She ran at Southwell in a Maiden but it looks like this is exactly what she wants now- her dam was a 7f winner and also related to a 9f winner. The way she has run the last twice screams that this step up should suit, and could be the making of her. And she is running well don’t forget, showing promise.
She is also unexposed, this her 3rd handicap run. We like unexposed horses. We like unexposed horses doing something different from their last run, in the pursuit of improvement. Tick and tick.
Now to the trainer…ah, the comfort zone… well Mr Shaw is ‘in form’ (according to Geegeez metrics), 2/7,3p in the last 14 days. In teh 14 days before that (when the selection was running) he was 0/13,2p. So, there are positives there. The yard seem to be hitting a little run. The jockey is also in form- we like a confident jockey- 3/10,4p in the last 14 days.
Martin Lane takes the ride for the first time…interesting… Trainer and Jockey are 5/25,11 places here in handicaps. Solid. +9 SP. 0/4,2p at the distance, 1/7,2p at the class. The trainer is 0/12,5p here at the distance, most of those 5 places have gone close. No worries on that score.
In reality, I don’t think I could tick many more boxes with this approach. I would like to think if all future horses ticked those boxes above- ‘form’, horse running well,recent run,fit,unexposed,staying on- looking like in need of a step up in trip,trainer in form, jockey in form, solid trainer/jockey stats at the track – … that in theory, over time, with 7s+ shots, we should do alright…
Well, she has been held up, or come from the back – i suggest that is because a mixture of inexperience and actually not having the pace to be any closer in the early part of the last couple of races maybe. Certainly Newcastle. And being held up off what must have been a steady pace LTO (winner led all the way/dictated- and was in form) wouldn’t have helped either. She is well drawn here today and given they may go a tad slower, hopefully Lane can get her in a decent position. There isn’t loads of pace on paper and that is a concern. If she is held up that is also a concern, but there could be a parting of the Red Sea on the inside rail that she can go through.
That for me, is the only real negative- her running style/how race may play out. With 7/1 shots I think I can take that chance given all the other positives.
Oh and I suppose the track is an unknown, but I will just trust the trainer. Sire stats look ok for the course, and the distance. 7s allows that chance I think.
( i should add that Spirit of Zebedee goes in the 4.30 Ling, 10/3, so will be interesting to see how he goes..) WON…that’s that form line boosted, now for a never sighted, tailed off last!….
This is a TEST section, but in truth I will be backing that one, probably for a crisp £10 note. Mug. We all know she may be tailed off (i mean it is me betting on the AW, although yesterday’s first main musing came a head second) and I will stare into the abyss. But, on paper, with this new approach, she ticks all the boxes you want ticking I think. She looks solid and will surely run a good race here.
Time will tell…
there may be more… I will still keep an eye on handicap debutants and ‘pace’ over fences..but should maybe dip in a bit more. Although I should try and become good at ‘form’ as the starting point. And my chasing game still needs work.
The 3m+ chases are still the standing dish, but when there isn’t one of those to attack, I will attempt to develop the ‘form’ side of things.
That will be all for today… although I will be keeping an eye on AURIC GOLDFINGER…* in the 1.45, for the ‘form’ approach. 5/2 a bit short for me but his form looks decent enough, horses from recent races have come out and run well- trainer in red hot form, top 3 speed figure, won over CD LTO and now looks to have got the hang of things, there could be more to come. He is usually held up so I found it of interest that Hannon has another in here, for the same owners I think, who has made the running- I wonder if he is in here as a pace setter. 5/2 short for me but ticks plenty of boxes, much like the selection. Along with Spirit of Zebedee that is a couple to keep an eye on.
*and that’s why it is important to get a decent price on hold up types i think… stable mate didn’t go on, there wasn’t a frenetic pace, fav held up way back,made up loads of ground up straight but was never going to get there. Clearly still in form and probably some more to come, but needs a much stronger pace and longer to wind up/get going. Might be interesting NTO and be a bigger price maybe.
That will be all for today.
GL with any bets.