TrainerTrackProfiles/Members Club Results Update for anyone interested: Read HERE>>>
This mid-week fare is getting a bit desperate it seems…
none. I don’t wish to stray into C5 territory really,not that often. Although the 16/1 winner that got away lines up in the 4.10. He won’t be a price but will be interesting to see how he goes.
Trainer/Jockey Combos- Live Test
2.40 Towc- Socksy (#3) (12/1< guide) UP
4.20 Newc – Wolf Sword (#2) (12/1<)
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- Live Test
2.40 Towc – Act Now 2nd 11/4
3.50 Newc- On A Promise (x2 angles) UP
4.10 Towc- Sweettothtommy UP
Form Form Form…
As touched on when discussing Braddock’s book, my approach to form analysis really does need to improve and arguably that should be the starting point. Our very own Nick Mazur rather puts me, and maybe some others, to shame on that front! So, I am going to dabble with form being the dominant starting point/way in- and by that I suppose I am talking about ‘hot form’ – horses that have recently run in races that have produced subsequent win/placed horses, indicating some strength in depth to that performance. It will then be a case of using all the other factors to help support that case… trainer form/jockey stats/horse suitability to conditions/pace/hncp mark/ratings etc.
Given the tools at my disposal there really is no excuse, as with all things it is a matter of time and the effort you put in. Anyone with geegeez gold, using the Hot Form tab, 45 days, sorted by wins, will see why Nick has homed in on Toni’s A Star- I can’t add anything to what Nick has said, at 7s, 15/2 looks solid from what I can see. Trainer form a slight niggle, 1/30, 14 days, but a lot of those have been 16s+. The horse is running in his preferred rest pattern also, that 44 days rest looks a niggle until you realise he seems to run well after such breaks.
I looked at Franco’s Secret in the 6.50 Kempton- I haven’t backed him- but in that run two starts ago he beat a horse who since came out and won a C3 handicap. Franco’s himself then came out again and won here 12 days go. He only ever just does enough but seems to have a willing attitude and that counts for plenty at this level. 5s, 9/2 hasn’t tempted me in on this occasion because the Favs form ties in with his- he chased home that NT) C3 winner, and but for being luckier in the run may have won. Her profile is a bit more exciting I suppose and Baker has been booked. The more off-putting factor, at that price anyway, is the fact he is usually held up and there is no confirmed pace in this. The race is there to be stolen- maybe Franny Norton may try to do that on Dascombes from the front. Possible. There is a chance it is falsely run which can throw up odd results and in any case he will need plenty to fall right. I would want a price on hold up types I think and that is just a shade skinny I think. But, hopefully he runs a good race.
Top Soi looked interesting in the 2.30 Wolvs – a couple of horses that finished around him the last day have since come out and run ok since, placing anyway. He has a good speed rating and is in form, but does bump into one that won well 2 days ago also. He is also a front runner and on paper there is a lot of pace in this- were he more assured of an easy time on the front end I may have been more interested. I also don’t like the 30 days off, 0/5,1p in that rest pattern, 2/4,2p returning 1-15 days so far. He is a bit of a character also by the looks of things. But again, interested to see how he goes.
So, that is me thinking aloud. Those are not ‘tips’ and I haven’t backed either of them. Just a couple of niggles at their prices. I do need to improve at this ‘attacking a race cold’ game. I will get there. One day.
While looking at some TTP horses today I had a thought about NHF horses- it was when looking at NTDs stats in the 4.40 Towcester- he has a good record with bumper horses on Heavy. That sparked an idea and I am just going to have a quick dive into my HRB account…
So, some logic here… in these conditions a horse will be really tested, especially fitness wise, and some trainers will be better than others at getting their horses fitter for such tests. I think that makes sense. So..
NHF/2014-/heavy+ soft to heavy*
‘Soft To Heavy’ is an official Irish description I think, applicable to Meade below. For everyone else we are just looking at Heavy only.
1st Career Start
Evan Williams: 4/12,4p… +13 BFSP
Noel Meade: 4/15, 9p… +18.46 BFSP
All NHF Runnners
P Hobbs: 7/19,11p… +12 BFSP
J Snowden: 4/9,4p… +20 BFSP
NTD: 4/11,5p.. + 8 BFSP
B Ellison: 4/10,6p… +13 BFSP
N Mulholland: 3/6,5p.. +7.63 BFSP
Do with that as you please.