FREE DAILY POST: 12/02/17 (complete)

TIP… gulp….

 

 

TIPS

3.20 Exeter

Katenko – 1 point win – 16/1 (general) UP

Not much to say there, it was a roll of the dice and was likely to go one of two ways. Well more likely that he tailed off. A bit annoyed they didn’t at least try and make all, or be up there – has the pace to do so as his last run showed. Clearly he just looks gone at the game, even a small micro angle couldn’t revive him! Paddy rode another master class which just goes to show sometimes the market doesn’t have a clue, having been 13/2,7s general this morning. On reflections 7s was probably decent given that run two starts ago was a very high level compared to what many in here had done recently and he was a pace angle. Trainer in form, Brennan on. That was never in much doubt once he was able to dictate. PU LTO excusable given the grade/oppo. No Many Clouds or Thistelcracks in this. At least looking at K made me uncover that micro which with any luck will find a winner every now and then. 

Chris has just spat his morning beverage out. Sadly I am not tipping this one with some renewed bounce having bottled yesterday’s 16/1 winner. If you could see my note pad and the use of my red pen, circled around two horses at a price, you would be as annoyed as me. We will get there.

I think this one has more letters than numbers in his profile now but at this price I just want to have a dart. Clearly his mark is plummeting and this is by far the easiest race he has lined up in for a little while. Nothing has really gone right for him, having had issues, nearly dying from colic,falling,injuring himself further,and possibly just not enjoying the game anymore. I can’t help wondering why the hell they keep bothering with him. He must be showing something still, Venetia must have a plan!

In part this madness/leave of my senses is driven by a micro angle I just looked at on the Members post. Katenko is a TTP pick. But, I had a look  at VWs handicap chasers, running in soft/heavy, that returned to the track 181+ days ago and Pulled Up on that start. 13/71,27p, +65 BFSP since 2003.

Of more interest such types since 2013 are 9/43,17 places, +45 BFSP. There is something to go on there.

The fact he returns quickly this time suggests there was nothing wrong the last day. Hughes did rush him up there and he was contesting the lead for a circuit or so, before dropping back through the field. Clearly that is a much better race than this and the drop in class is interesting. I also think if they try those tactics again he could get a lead here, and try and make all. Treadwell is up and he does well on VW handicap chasers, in general, and over time. Venetia is also in some form again, having hit a quieter period… 5/22,8p in the last 14 days.

The horse himself hasn’t had many goes but these are his conditions. This is only his 14th chase race. 0/6,0p all runs with good in the going. 2/8,3p with soft/heavy. He is 2/7,3p in handicaps on soft/heavy, 2/4,3p in handicaps returning 8-30 days. Profile wise, all fine. His mark is plummeting and the capper has dropped him 8lb from that last run.

For me, at 16s, there is just enough to go on, in a race like this. He isn’t as good as he was but he promised so much a few years ago. With the micro, trainer form,pace angle,old ability, drop in class and ideal conditions I wanted a dart. The fact they keep going with him just niggles at me. IF he has any ability and if that last run was to set him up for this (not impossible) he will make 16s look a monster price.

Of course, it is more likely that he leads for a circuit and then starts to go backwards through the field. I am not sure you could ever back him again after that.

Of the rest? Well I won’t go into too much detail but again nothing at a single figure price that leaps out at me…Harry Topper looks very interesting and was 12s last night- probably a price to take a chance. Bailey’s are going much better than they were and again if you look far enough back he has the ability to win this well. He is 2/2 at the track and conditions are fine. But, he also PU LTO and backing two in one race is probably idiotic, and he is half the price of the selection. I may have a saver on him.

If Theatrical Star repeats his last run he goes close here but is 7/2. I backed him the last day and he couldn’t quite get to the leader but he tanked through the race. He is a worthy fav in ideal conditions. He doesn’t have the class of a Katenko or a Harry Topper for me, if they can rediscover their best. A few in here return after lengthy lay-offs and or have questions over testing conditions, or may indeed be high up in the handicap.

You can make a case for plenty in here and I wanted one at a price.

This is clearly a big risk but part of me thinks he may make all here and they won’t see which way he has gone. Ever a dreamer!

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Handicap Hurdle/Jumps Portfolio – Live Test

2.50 Exet – Clondaw Cian

 

**

That will be all for today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. A brief look over the veterans chase gives me a clear impression that at least 10 of these would not be a surprise winner o me, The only one I would discount completely would be Katenko. A horse in my eyes that had so much potential early on an d completely threw in the towel after coming back from injury. I kind of think there’s so many different ways in for so many that I could spend far to long trying to find a winner that it would make far more sense to get the pin out and save the effort.

  2. Veterans,what a joke,with some of these running well in top class chases,for me its Perfect Candidate and the freshhorse Whats Happening

  3. Pipe & George do well in these with 10yo’s 10/1 or less, 9/18, +42.5pts. So for me it’s What’s Happening 7/1, if overcoming his long absence, and Katkeau (currently 14/1), if meeting the odds criteria.

    Chris R.

    1. Good stattage Chris. Yep agree What’s Happening is interesting- always thought better on decent ground but was more concerned with the break, in context of his price- I wanted a big bigger personally.
      As it turns out I think there was something strong in my morning coffee given my selection!
      GL. Looks a cracker of a race, I do enjoy watching these and you can make a case for most.

      1. Pyman’s Theories in the Racing Post had an article a few Fridays back about the trainers profitable to follow in veteran chases.
        These two yards came out best,

    1. I think they are Colin, and I think this may be the one! Well, I am dreaming, but connections must think he is going to put it all together one day. This is a decent enough pot. We shall see.

  4. The one thing i have learned from reading and following some of the advice looking at the improbable and not dismissing the impossible,i did loughalder yesterday as it was value but could not bring myself to back Whiskey Chaser as it was too short,the real profits lie in these 10+ shots,there will be long losing runs but then a bunch pop up together,the other is to protect your bank and have it sufficiently funded for the losing runs

    1. Indeed Gerry- following my own advice appears to be a problem at times! Why oh why you have a shortlist of two 16s shots, and one there at 5s that you backed LTO, and you dont back both 16s shots is beyond me! I think talking about it repeatedly is a sense of therapy! I have never done well under 6s/7s/8s and I really should focus in on the biggies- it is the key to long term profit- you will only ever be in the 10%-15% win SR, but that is what the likes of Gary Priestley and Nick Hardman operate at, and you only have to look at their profits to see that is the way. On we go. The challenge keeps us going.

  5. Katenko… He couldn’t, could he?

    I’ve followed you in. I was searching for a Venetia angle last night involving a PU LTO but found nothing.

    The angle on its own you’ve found is different class mate. And if Katenko runs a big race then serious hats off to you

    1. Yep we shall see, but that angle is saved now! We know VW does best with soft/heavy handicap chases, and there is logic to that angle – suggests those PUs may be because needed the run- there isn’t much on the ‘days since run’ from that PU, although 11-25 days since that PU are 2/11,4p within that angle, so ticks that box also.

      I may have looked at a micro for Snowden’s yesterday, for second start in a handicap chase… 7/35,12p or something. Still on my mind, can you tell!

      16s was worth a go for Katenko for me. That run could have been a prep for this.

  6. Can’t have this one Josh but admire you making a case for the horse

    I have stuck 2 tenners on Perfect Candidate and What’s Happening – I think one of these must go very close Heskin and Brennan know the time of day to win these type of races.

    Treadwell can surprise but I just can’t have it – Best of luck

    1. You never need to justify not backing one of my tips Joe! 🙂

      Yep you can make a case for plenty – with Perfect C I thought there may be better handicapped horses in this, his mark is on the high end and will need a career best to take this I think- possible, hat team are unstoppable this season. Again What’s Happening has a strong chance if fully tuned up for sure. Looks a very open race. I can’t see how I could back K again after this if he fails to shine- everything looks right and 16s just allowed a stab for me.
      I think Harry Topper is interesting and had a saver at 8s. GL, should be fun to watch.

  7. any like the look of harry topper? took 10s early this morning and there seems to be a bit of support now into 6s also done fingal bay in the race before

    1. Looks to have a good chance to my eye mark. Had 10s+ been around when I looked properly I may have added him in. Possible his PU was down to poor yard form and probably needing it. And this is no Welsh Nat. I had saver at 8s to cover my dart on Katencko and leave some change for a pint . GL

  8. Theatrical Star tops my ratings, but at 9/2 i’ll leave. This is a tight race with the rest in descending order all within 1 or 2 points of each other.
    Of my top 3. after TS…. Buywise, [12/1]… Perfect Candidate[ 7/1] and Al Co.[16/1]
    are reasonably priced…but there are many valid cases for others…..
    A puzzler for sure…. But hope springs eternal.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Good luck Tony. Not sure on Buywise stamina and this takes some getting. But it could be,with his style and the slower pace they go here, that this is what he has always wanted! May have been running him at wrong distance all along. I thought Al Co may want better ground and there would be stronger stayers here in the mud. But I may have that wrong. Yard in decent form now as Bowen said they would be. Looks very open. A cracker. These races are a great addition. GL

  9. Might as well throw my two pence in on the 3.20 race, sticking with system bets as they are what work best for me. Perfect candidate doesn’t show up for my fergal or fergal/brennan systems, Alchimix shows up on my hammond system but it’s a 7yo and my notes for that system says not to back his 7yos. My pipe system throws up shotavodka so I’m backing that as long as it doesn’t drift out past 12s. I’m expecting a loss to be honest tho! Good luck all

  10. Hi Josh / All

    Looking forward to see how Dinaria Des Obeaux goes in the 2.30 Leopardstown out of “Saddler Maker” who is making a great impression as a sire. If we look at all non handicap hurdle races class 1 with any cut in the going he is 13, 5, 9. The horse has only had the 1 run and won a 22 runner maiden hurdle at Cork on soft going by 29 lengths at 7.00, Clearly could be anything in this grade 1 race and priced up at 100/30 but the pedigree is there in these top grade races and a bet for me.

    1. I was so surprised Gearoid… It was my main bet with two small e/w ones.
      Happy days. I think you can back paddy and F O’Brien even if it doesn’t fall into system rules in a big race…He’s just class.

      1. well done gents, lovely drift as well to 12s almost doubled in price from last night. Paddy determined to make all and rode a superb race again, rarely rides a poor one in truth on chasers these days. In fairness that penultimate run probably best recent form in this by some way. 12s was generous.
        Dont think i will be touching Katencko again- surprised didn’t try and push pace but not really an excuse.

  11. Well done guys lovely 12/1 winner there, One thing that keeps happening regularly in these staying soft ground / heavy chases is that the leader after
    1/2M to 1M tends to win, In today’s race for example Paddy made sure he was going to lead rousting his mount along for the first 2 fences to establish that with Masters Hill settled in 2nd and that’s how it stayed pretty much the rest of the race until the 2nd was caught on the line. Same happened yesterday at Uttoxeter and its a similar pattern in these type of races. I know you like your front runners Josh especially in these events and I can see why, An in running play could be an option going forward, I will monitor and see if the odds are compromised much, well done again all

    1. yep in general that is the place to be if you can go the pace you want. Katencko was meant to be up there, one of reasons for me having an interest! Never mind. Perfect was 13/2, 7s this morning I think which I thought was ok/about right. Only 3lb above that penultimate run I suppose and like many in here had a decent chance on paper. Well done to those who had a go.

  12. Most evenings i have a look at the blog on O Brien website,the most notable part is the pictures,staff always smiling,so id say its an enjoyable place to work,this usually translates to happy well looked after horses which in turn leads to good results on the racecourse

    1. Yep they have a good twitter operation also. Looks so much fun owning a horse with them. I think one day,if we ever syndicate a RTP horse, which I would like to do one day, we know where it will be trained!

  13. Look Perfect C stats a rhytm,one race great next poor than next great
    Suzie horses rhytm most of wins she has with horse after about 36 days break

    1. I don’t know about that. His 2 poor runs this season was on seasonal re-appearance and than last time anything but a PU would have been a surprise consider who he was racing against. Today would have been much easier, with the only concern being the weight. Slightly annoyed I missed him drifting to 12/1 since would have had a bet although was already on given Dr Hardman tipped him up.

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