Katenko – 1 point win – 16/1 (general) UP
Not much to say there, it was a roll of the dice and was likely to go one of two ways. Well more likely that he tailed off. A bit annoyed they didn’t at least try and make all, or be up there – has the pace to do so as his last run showed. Clearly he just looks gone at the game, even a small micro angle couldn’t revive him! Paddy rode another master class which just goes to show sometimes the market doesn’t have a clue, having been 13/2,7s general this morning. On reflections 7s was probably decent given that run two starts ago was a very high level compared to what many in here had done recently and he was a pace angle. Trainer in form, Brennan on. That was never in much doubt once he was able to dictate. PU LTO excusable given the grade/oppo. No Many Clouds or Thistelcracks in this. At least looking at K made me uncover that micro which with any luck will find a winner every now and then.
Chris has just spat his morning beverage out. Sadly I am not tipping this one with some renewed bounce having bottled yesterday’s 16/1 winner. If you could see my note pad and the use of my red pen, circled around two horses at a price, you would be as annoyed as me. We will get there.
I think this one has more letters than numbers in his profile now but at this price I just want to have a dart. Clearly his mark is plummeting and this is by far the easiest race he has lined up in for a little while. Nothing has really gone right for him, having had issues, nearly dying from colic,falling,injuring himself further,and possibly just not enjoying the game anymore. I can’t help wondering why the hell they keep bothering with him. He must be showing something still, Venetia must have a plan!
In part this madness/leave of my senses is driven by a micro angle I just looked at on the Members post. Katenko is a TTP pick. But, I had a look at VWs handicap chasers, running in soft/heavy, that returned to the track 181+ days ago and Pulled Up on that start. 13/71,27p, +65 BFSP since 2003.
Of more interest such types since 2013 are 9/43,17 places, +45 BFSP. There is something to go on there.
The fact he returns quickly this time suggests there was nothing wrong the last day. Hughes did rush him up there and he was contesting the lead for a circuit or so, before dropping back through the field. Clearly that is a much better race than this and the drop in class is interesting. I also think if they try those tactics again he could get a lead here, and try and make all. Treadwell is up and he does well on VW handicap chasers, in general, and over time. Venetia is also in some form again, having hit a quieter period… 5/22,8p in the last 14 days.
The horse himself hasn’t had many goes but these are his conditions. This is only his 14th chase race. 0/6,0p all runs with good in the going. 2/8,3p with soft/heavy. He is 2/7,3p in handicaps on soft/heavy, 2/4,3p in handicaps returning 8-30 days. Profile wise, all fine. His mark is plummeting and the capper has dropped him 8lb from that last run.
For me, at 16s, there is just enough to go on, in a race like this. He isn’t as good as he was but he promised so much a few years ago. With the micro, trainer form,pace angle,old ability, drop in class and ideal conditions I wanted a dart. The fact they keep going with him just niggles at me. IF he has any ability and if that last run was to set him up for this (not impossible) he will make 16s look a monster price.
Of course, it is more likely that he leads for a circuit and then starts to go backwards through the field. I am not sure you could ever back him again after that.
Of the rest? Well I won’t go into too much detail but again nothing at a single figure price that leaps out at me…Harry Topper looks very interesting and was 12s last night- probably a price to take a chance. Bailey’s are going much better than they were and again if you look far enough back he has the ability to win this well. He is 2/2 at the track and conditions are fine. But, he also PU LTO and backing two in one race is probably idiotic, and he is half the price of the selection. I may have a saver on him.
If Theatrical Star repeats his last run he goes close here but is 7/2. I backed him the last day and he couldn’t quite get to the leader but he tanked through the race. He is a worthy fav in ideal conditions. He doesn’t have the class of a Katenko or a Harry Topper for me, if they can rediscover their best. A few in here return after lengthy lay-offs and or have questions over testing conditions, or may indeed be high up in the handicap.
You can make a case for plenty in here and I wanted one at a price.
This is clearly a big risk but part of me thinks he may make all here and they won’t see which way he has gone. Ever a dreamer!
Handicap Hurdle/Jumps Portfolio – Live Test
2.50 Exet – Clondaw Cian
That will be all for today.