Whiskey Chaser – 1 point win – 5/1 2nd 10/3 (distant 2nd)
Loughalder – 1 point win – 25/1 (BV/WH) 20/1 (general) UP 20/1
That was painful to watch after about the first fence when Lunar Flow was sent to the front in 1st time headgear and was clearly tanking. When you have a shortlist of three , one priced 5/1, two priced 16/1+, and you leave one of them, you deserve shooting. One day I will stop making the same errors and actually learn. On we go. As has been the case for a while generally, putting the final piece of the jigsaw together has been the problem.
Whisky Chaser- venturing into 4/1-7/1 territory is always a bit dangerous with me. The days will return when I find the odd 8/1+ shot and they do pay for plenty of losers, and the odd one has been knocking on the door and/or shortening. Anyway, I backed this one the last day I think as he was a TTP bet of sorts. His young jockey that day gave him a bit of a shocker and he will have no doubt learnt plenty from it – this horse doesn’t have to lead but he got in a hell of a fight from flag fall with the Evan Williams horse and to my eye they ruined both their chances. I think that was the reason for the PU but if I have that wrong then I could be in trouble. It was also in first time headgear and there is a chance he does better in them the second time.
As an aside while on a train today I started flicking through Nick Mordin’s Betting For A Living again- superb book and one I recommend for all levels- it is still so relevant and packed full of useful snippets. Anyway he was talking about the effect of headgear the second time, and the tongue tie etc. There is some stuff there with which to do some further digging in my HRB account.
Whisky Chaser has the ability and is still lightly enough raced over fences with the chance there is more to come. I also couldn’t help but notice that Hughes has been booked and that McCain has been firing in the winners again of late. His run at Ayr was also decent, behind a horse who had been in fine form and was bringing up the hat-trick. A couple behind that day have come out and won since also.
Having looked through the rest, and pondered, I thought 5s was fair. He is the only single figure priced horse I would want to be near and would hope he may be sent off in the 3/1 region. These conditions look ideal and if he can just track the leaders and receive a patient Hughes ride, he could be much the best…
Loughalder… what a rogue. I have no idea if it is mental with him but you want to be taking a price. Having had a look at his profile I couldn’t help but notice that for the last 3 seasons he has won on his 5th start of the year- last year’s ‘5th run effort’ was on the back of two PUs. Today he runs for the 5th time this season, on the back of two PUs. Maybe that is all just coincidence but his run at Warwick a few starts back showed the ability is there- just about whether he puts it in. I think this mark is workable although he needs a career best , OR wise. But he won fine off 115 and I thought exactly the same about Barton Gift. With 10/1 + shots I can’t be putting myself off with ORs really, especially when stamina, actual weight,jumping and ability to handle the ground are more important for me.
He is also 2/3,3p at the track in handicap chases and has carried weight ok before, placing twice with 11-12 on his back. You can forgive plenty at that price. It may be he is just regressive and has properly gone at the game. But that ‘5th season start’ profile caught the eye, as did his track record, as did the fact he has bounced back from PUs a few times before. He could win, he could place, he could PU and be struggling early. But he is 25s, 20s, and I will indulge. He will go in again at some point, at a price. Maybe today.
If he isn’t clipped into 16s< I will be concerned as not many of the trainer’s horses run a race when sent off bigger than that.
Blimey, two horses that PU LTO. Pass the medication..
Of the rest…
Well Son of Suzie has a big weight and from memory is not a massive horse and has that to prove. Of more concern is the fact he usually needs a run or two to get up to gear, and he has to prove he can win from this mark. He may well do that but at 5s I can take him on and sleep at night.
I can’t have Winged Crusader at that price given his last race completely fell apart and he is now 0/10,1p OR 110+. He is a shocker of a price for me, even if he wins this well. Armedanddangerous is a 12yo and while lightly enough raced is short enough for me at 6s. You shouldn’t really be backing 11yo and older horses at a single figure price, well I shouldn’t be anyway. Conditions are fine but he is 11lb above his last winning mark. Happy for him to beat me and you can cheer on these old boys to victory even if your tipping betting bank is staring down the barrel.
Sonoftheking’s form isn’t a high standard and he was arguably lucky to win a couple of starts back in what was a weak race and hasn’t worked out that well. Famous last words. Cailleach Annie is interesting as she is unexposed and handles the mud well enough. But she needs to step up, is usually held up, and has been making mistakes. Again a single fig price doesn’t tempt me although 10s in the odd place. (seems to be well supported this morning, not a total shock) Time on her side but I wasn’t tempted. Lunar Flow is interesting in the sense it is his second chase start and gets 1st time blinkers. But, I would really want to see more over fences first, even at 16/1. Any market support would spark interest but I talked myself out of him. Bar the 1st time blinkers there isn’t much to go on and even if they work he may not be that good, and needs a few in here to fluff their lines. I can’t really have the other two.
PACE… interesting as a few can get on with it. It will be interesting if Poste is aggressive as Loughalder can lead and if he is able to dictate I will get excited. Winged Crusader can lead but isn’t usually aggressively ridden to do so if others go forward, he will be thereabouts. Hughes may take it up on Whisky if he doesn’t have to work too hard for it. So, with any luck, both mine will be up there, 1-2 all the way!
I won’t be tipping in the Betfair Hurdle although there are some interesting stats/trends which I have posted in the members area and a strict interpretation of the ones that stand out to me leaves 4… William H Bounty (8/1), Movie With The Times (11/2), Ballyandy (9/2) and Beltor (20/1). Those final two hit the 10 year ‘position in the weights’ stats also (4th to 10th in weights 0/71,12p last 10 years, for interest) One, maybe two, of those stand out at the prices.
Those that have have yet to run in a handicap hurdle are 5/32,11p, +41 SP over the last 10 years, which is an interesting ‘race micro’ in itself. Qualifiers are Movewiththetimes, Ballyandy and Ballyhill I believe.
K Lee Chasers (#2) (12/1<)
4.10 Newb- Kris Spin
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.35 Newb – Clyne (12/1<)
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – Live Test
1.50 Newb – Lac Fontana- UP
2.20 Uttox Lunar Flow- WON 16/1
3.15 War – Actival-
4.00 Uttox – Rock On Rocky W 7/1
4.35 Uttox – Major Hindrance 3rd 10/1
Dr Nick Hardman’s Big Race Tips…
My good friends over at The Betting School/The Betting Insiders Club allow me to post tips from one race every Saturday, when I remember to do so! I am not sure i have picked a winning race as yet, which is typical. Anyway, he is one of the best Big Race Tipsters/Advisers around and with that said, let’s go with his Betfair Hurdle Selections…
Over to Nick…
One from the Insiders Report and a few who qualify on the trends including no fewer than five of the top seven in the betting. Of those at
an each-way price I think Song Light has place prospects on the back of his third in the Greatwood Hurdle. William H Bonney is also of interest
but Alan King has said he would have preferred another week between his last race and this. Clyne is 5lb well in on ratings and if his second to
the New One is not false form then he should be in the mix. I’ll take those two from the trends horses and throw in Boite at a huge price who
should be better back down at 2 miles and could well outrun his odds.
Song Light @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Boite @33/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
I hope he may be right about Boite who is also a big priced TTP selection. They have been knocking on the door with a few seconds in recent days but the 10/1+ shots are on a bit of a losing run at the moment. Maybe he will break that…
That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets.