FREE DAILY POST: 11/02/17 (complete)

Tips + Betfair Hurdle notes, jumps angles… + guest Tipster big race selections…

 

TIPS

2.20 Uttoxeter

Whiskey Chaser – 1 point win – 5/1 2nd 10/3 (distant 2nd)

Loughalder – 1 point win – 25/1 (BV/WH) 20/1 (general) UP 20/1

That was painful to watch after about the first fence when Lunar Flow was sent to the front in 1st time headgear and was clearly tanking. When you have a shortlist of three , one priced 5/1, two priced 16/1+, and you leave one of them, you deserve shooting. One day I will stop making the same errors and actually learn. On we go. As has been the case for a while generally, putting the final piece of the jigsaw together has been the problem. 

Whisky Chaser- venturing into 4/1-7/1 territory is always a bit dangerous with me. The days will return when I find the odd 8/1+ shot and they do pay for plenty of losers, and the odd one has been knocking on the door and/or shortening. Anyway, I backed this one the last day I think as he was a TTP bet of sorts. His young jockey that day gave him a bit of a shocker and he will have no doubt learnt plenty from it – this horse doesn’t have to lead but he got in a hell of a fight from flag fall with the Evan Williams horse and to my eye they ruined both their chances. I think that was the reason for the PU but if I have that wrong then I could be in trouble. It was also in first time headgear and there is a chance he does better in them the second time.

As an aside while on a train today I started flicking through Nick Mordin’s Betting For A Living again- superb book and one I recommend for all levels- it is still so relevant and packed full of useful snippets. Anyway he was talking about the effect of headgear the second time, and the tongue tie etc. There is some stuff there with which to do some further digging in my HRB account.

Whisky Chaser has the ability and is still lightly enough raced over fences with the chance there is more to come. I also couldn’t help but notice that Hughes has been booked and that McCain has been firing in the winners again of late. His run at Ayr was also decent, behind a horse who had been in fine form and was bringing up the hat-trick. A couple behind that day have come out and won since also.

Having looked through the rest, and pondered, I thought 5s was fair. He is the only single figure priced horse I would want to be near and would hope he may be sent off in the 3/1 region. These conditions look ideal and if he can just track the leaders and receive a patient Hughes ride, he could be much the best…

Loughalder… what a rogue. I have no idea if it is mental with him but you want to be taking a price. Having had a look at his profile I couldn’t help but notice that for the last 3 seasons he has won on his 5th start of the year- last year’s ‘5th run effort’ was on the back of two PUs. Today he runs for the 5th time this season, on the back of two PUs. Maybe that is all just coincidence but his run at Warwick a few starts back showed the ability is there- just about whether he puts it in. I think this mark is workable although he needs a career best , OR wise. But he won fine off 115 and I thought exactly the same about Barton Gift. With 10/1 + shots I can’t be putting myself off with ORs really, especially when stamina, actual weight,jumping and ability to handle the ground are more important for me.

He is also 2/3,3p at the track in handicap chases and has carried weight ok before, placing twice with 11-12 on his back. You can forgive plenty at that price. It may be he is just regressive and has properly gone at the game. But that ‘5th season start’ profile caught the eye, as did his track record, as did the fact he has bounced back from PUs a few times before. He could win, he could place, he could PU and be struggling early. But he is 25s, 20s, and I will indulge. He will go in again at some point, at a price. Maybe today.

If he isn’t clipped into 16s< I will be concerned as not many of the trainer’s horses run a race when sent off bigger than that.

Blimey, two horses that PU LTO. Pass the medication..

Of the rest…

Well Son of Suzie has a big weight and from memory is not a massive horse and has that to prove. Of more concern is the fact he usually needs a run or two to get up to gear, and he has to prove he can win from this mark. He may well do that but at 5s I can take him on and sleep at night.

I can’t have Winged Crusader at that price given his last race completely fell apart and he is now 0/10,1p OR 110+. He is a shocker of a price for me, even if he wins this well. Armedanddangerous is a 12yo and while lightly enough raced is short enough for me at 6s. You shouldn’t really be backing 11yo and older horses at a single figure price, well I shouldn’t be anyway. Conditions are fine but he is 11lb above his last winning mark. Happy for him to beat me and you can cheer on these old boys to victory even if your tipping betting bank is staring down the barrel.

Sonoftheking’s form isn’t a high standard and he was arguably lucky to win a couple of starts back in what was a weak race and hasn’t worked out that well. Famous last words. Cailleach Annie is interesting as she is unexposed and handles the mud well enough. But she needs to step up, is usually held up, and has been making mistakes. Again a single fig price doesn’t tempt me although 10s in the odd place. (seems to be well supported this morning, not a total shock) Time on her side but I wasn’t tempted. Lunar Flow is interesting in the sense it is his second chase start and gets 1st time blinkers. But, I would really want to see more over fences first, even at 16/1. Any market support would spark interest but I talked myself out of him. Bar the 1st time blinkers there isn’t much to go on and even if they work he may not be that good, and needs a few in here to fluff their lines. I can’t really have the other two.

PACE… interesting as a few can get on with it. It will be interesting if Poste is aggressive as Loughalder can lead and if he is able to dictate I will get excited. Winged Crusader can lead but isn’t usually aggressively ridden to do so if others go forward, he will be thereabouts. Hughes may take it up on Whisky if he doesn’t have to work too hard for it. So, with any luck, both mine will be up there, 1-2 all the way!

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I won’t be tipping in the Betfair Hurdle although there are some interesting stats/trends which I have posted in the members area and a strict interpretation of the ones that stand out to me leaves 4… William H Bounty (8/1), Movie With The Times (11/2), Ballyandy (9/2) and Beltor (20/1). Those final two hit the 10 year ‘position in the weights’ stats also (4th to 10th in weights 0/71,12p last 10 years, for interest) One, maybe two, of those stand out at the prices.

Those that have have yet to run in a handicap hurdle are 5/32,11p, +41 SP over the last 10 years, which is an interesting ‘race micro’ in itself. Qualifiers are Movewiththetimes, Ballyandy and Ballyhill I believe.

 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (#2) (12/1<)

4.10 Newb- Kris Spin

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.35 Newb – Clyne (12/1<)

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – Live Test

1.50 Newb – Lac Fontana- UP

2.20 Uttox  Lunar Flow- WON 16/1

3.15 War – Actival-

4.00 Uttox – Rock On Rocky W 7/1

4.35 Uttox – Major Hindrance 3rd 10/1

 

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BONUS

Dr Nick Hardman’s Big Race Tips…

My good friends over at The Betting School/The Betting Insiders Club allow me to post tips from one race every Saturday, when I remember to do so! I am not sure i have picked a winning race as yet, which is typical. Anyway, he is one of the best Big Race Tipsters/Advisers around and with that said, let’s go with his Betfair Hurdle Selections…

Over to Nick…

Newbury 3.35pm

One from the Insiders Report and a few who qualify on the trends including no fewer than five of the top seven in the betting.  Of those at

an each-way price I think Song Light has place prospects on the back of his third in the Greatwood Hurdle.  William H Bonney is also of interest

but Alan King has said he would have preferred another week between his last race and this.  Clyne is 5lb well in on ratings and if his second to

the New One is not false form then he should be in the mix.  I’ll take those two from the trends horses and throw in Boite at a huge price who

should be better back down at 2 miles and could well outrun his odds.

Clyne @7/1

Song Light @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Boite @33/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

 

I hope he may be right about Boite who is also a big priced TTP selection. They have been knocking on the door with a few seconds in recent days but the 10/1+ shots are on a bit of a losing run at the moment. Maybe he will break that…

As always, you can try Dr Nick’s Big Race Tipping Service HERE>>>

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That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Infinite Sun 4.45 Newbury is probably a bit big at 14,12/1.O Brien is flying again and has a good overall record here and 2-5 in bumpers,Probably has indication of where this one is compared to the market leaders,fav was beaten by O briens Cap soleil lto and this one beat Western Ryder lto,you would expect progress from 1st run so i think there is a bit of value to be had

  2. Didnt look closely at tomorrow racings ,but
    3:35 NEWBURY Eddiemaurice 66/1 was very close 5 Boxing Day ahead of William H Bonney
    Hargam 50/1 is topwaighted

  3. I was interested in Loughalder at first but its last two wins here were at 26f (and off marks below 110); this is 3 miles only.

  4. Maybe its just me but tomorrow looks like one of the worst Saturdays for some time. Just the two and a half bets for me.

    Firstly I expect Calculated Risk to be competitive in the 16:35 at Uttoxeter. Has gone close a couple of times since his seasonal re-appearance and is now 7lbs lower with the jockeys claim and 10lbs lower than when going a close 2nd in a class 3 over the same trip and ground at Ffos Llas 10 months ago. He gets pretty much his ideal conditions as far as track, ground, trip. Two of the trainer last 3 runners have won. Lizzie Kelly comes here from Warwick for just the one ride. The favourite looks ridiculously short considering he is unproven on heavy and has to carry 11st 12lb which is a lot for a 6 yr old. A large portion has been badly out of form (or trained by trainers who are). I really expect mine to go close.

    I also want an e/w bet on Wildmoor Boy in the 16:55 at Warwick. Has ran in some very hot races this season with both his Cheltenham victory (the 2nd just missed out on the Coral.ie grade 2 in Ireland, 4th destroyed a class 3 field, 6th won 2 races since) and Leicester 6th working out extremely well. Last time he was a close 2nd but made a mistake at the last when perhaps the 12st 4lbs he was carrying started to tell and was passed on the run in. He now gets a 4lb swing with that horse. Trainer is in arguably better form the past 30 days than he has been most of the season. Another one that should go well.

    I’ll hold my hand up and say I’ve been totally defeated by the Betfair Hurdle. I can make a case for 75% of the field so I am not advising anything although my gut tell me Wait for Me has been primed for tomorrow so have thrown 0.25pt e/w in that direction. Whatever happens it should thrown up a number of good horses and we should be able to get another Kolondra or two out of it in the future.

    1. Thanks Nick, I like to think that I know a reasonable amount about NH racing without spending hours going through the formbooks etc . but I always feel very inferior reading your posts. Good Luck again today my friend.

    2. One interesting thing to note for today which I picked up after listening to the Racing Post podcast. The Listed bumper which concludes the card at Newbury today has been won by some very good horses. The last seven winners were Ballyandy, Barters Hill (beat Buveir Dair, Altior and Duke des Champs), Definitely Red (beat Tea for Two), Oscar Rock, Shutthefrontdoor (beat Village Vic and Coneygree), Ericht and Al Ferof. So certainly another race to keep an eye on with a view to the future since it normally throws up a few good ones.

    3. Nick. I totally agree with your comment on the fav in the 4:35. I looked at this one closely and Big Meadow has been priced on a combination of the horses that have beaten it and Trg/Jock who have a high strike rate at this course in this type of race. BM may turn out one of his Sires best ever progeny but the fact is it’s a poor blood line.
      Last 5 years all hurdle races any dist & going 102 starts 3 wins 19 placed, over this distance any going 26 runs 0 wins 4 placed, this distance on soft 6 runs, 0 wins 2 placed! Those 2 placed where beaten 14 ½ & 36l.
      My preference is Key to the West with Brian Hughes on board. Down in Grade, OR down, up to distance he has CD at bred for the job!

      1. With regard to Big Meadow, I know Nick also subscribes to Mark Howard’s publications and Declan Phelan a regular contributor from the Irish Point fields and a seemingly excellent judge, stated in December that he thought BM’s opening mark is a penalty kick without a goalkeeper. Reckons he is a 130 horse so may explain the price, but still all to prove!

        Chris R.

        1. Chris R. Thanks for that having laid Big Meadow I have how traded out. Having checked his point & his bumper win over Geordie des Champs I concur 130 looks about right. Connections probably think he will better over further so this is a good start point.

  5. Hi Josh / All

    Well the “War Front” project didn’t materialise last evening over the 1M 4F trip, For me its hard to know for sure if he does stay that trip as he was given an easy time all the way round and certainly looked like a comeback run after a break. It could well be that they attempting to lower his mark further and lining up a race over the 1M 2 1/2F distance and will be interesting if turned out in the nexr week or two, but certainly not one to dismiss at this stage….The Newcastle returning winners angle continues to do well, There was 1 main qualifier for the 2+ winners that obliged at 4.5, but also noted 3 other runners on the card that had won once and they all ran well. Major Jumbo finishing 2nd beaten a shd, Approvado 3rd at 12/1 in the same race we had the winner Slingsby & Killermont Street winning at 8/1 certainly an angle to keep on side moving forward….

    There is 1 sire qualifier today for the “Frozen Power” 1M 1/2F angle which the stats have been lowered somewhat with Cold Fusion trying this C & D 3 times without success the figs are now 12, 4, 6

    5.45 Wolves – Powered 17.0 – 5 books

    To be frank I thought this one would be bigger nearer to 28.0 would be more appropriate. In his short 13 run career to date he has 1 place and is on his 3rd trainer. His mark has dropped from 72 to today’s 54 and he is now with David Evans who admittedly does well with these lower grade runners, His best run to date was at Southwell on New Years Day finishing 4th over 1M beaten 1.6L but failed to back that up with 2 subsequent runs over the same C & D. The angle in here is of course is the sire over this C & D in which he tries both for the first time. Drawn ok in 5 I think it will be boom or bust with this one.

    Just 1 other bet for me today on the AW, racing is very poor….

    3.10 Lingfield – My Target 3.25 Stan James

    The stand out on stats today, not much of a price but stats suggest there is value , Firstly if we look at sires in class 2 in 1M handicaps at the track Cape Cross is way ahead of the rest with an overall set of figs of 27 runs, 12 wins, 16 places 44.44% win SR, 59.26% place SR
    + 68.75 to SP, The horse and trainer in these class 2 handicaps over C & D are 3 runs, 3 wins, 3 places, He also tops the speed figs over the distance & 2nd top rated on the going. He is in the form of his life winning his last 2 over C & D and is steadily climbing the handicap to a career high of 97 with his last performance off another career high of 91 being his most impressive. Had a 28 day break and is drawn well in 2 to sit just behind the leader and pounce down the home straight.

    Good Luck with all your selections as always I will watch with interest.

    Cheers
    Steve

  6. There is 2.40 FLYING ANGEL Warwick,class horse,over 7 now
    But i rally like to see how Traffic Fluide,will perform,will great to see that horse in form,he is long traveller

  7. I nearly backed it for daft fiver and didn’t – It was a good write up Josh

    “Lunar Flow is interesting in the sense it is his second chase start and gets 1st time blinkers. But, I would really want to see more over fences first, even at 16/1. Any market support would spark interest but I talked myself out of him. Bar the 1st time blinkers there isn’t much to go on and even if they work he may not be that good, and needs a few in here to fluff their lines. I can’t really have the other two.”

    1. One day I will be ok at this game. That race was awful to watch after 2f when they made all with Lunar Flow, didn’t think long enough they may change tactics with 1st time blinkers. Let myself down there again, going with a sodding 5s shot ahead of him at 16s. Unexposed, headgear, against a lot of exposed types. And was a price to roll the dice. 3rd on the shortlist. And he’d shown ability over hurdles which i noted in my own notes. No problem backing Loughalder. Keep making same errors/bottling it every now and then. I like talking myself out of 14s+ winners. On we go.

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