TTP Jumps Notes: 05/02/17 (complete)

all quals + ratings pointers…

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.20 Taunt – Contre Tous (bonus) UP 2/1 >

Top 3

4.00 Punch – As De Pique (bonus) UP 11/1 >

 

Geegeez Gold

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

4.20 Taunt – Sykes – Fell 11/2>

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

 

MUSS

4.10 –

Nautical Nitwit (all hncps + TJC) 14 UP 20/1>

Arthurs Secret (hncp hurdle) 2nd 9/1>7/1

 

TAUNTON

2.20 – Seven Kingdoms (micro age) UP 25/1>

2.50 – Go Long (all hncps + hncp hurdle) UP 8/1 >

3.50 – Roadie Joe (all hncps + hncp hurdle) Fell 20/1>

4.20 – Skykes (hncp chase) 14 Fell – 11/2> 

4.50 – New Reaction (hncp hurdle) 14 PU – 20/1 > 

 

BONUS

3.20 Taunt- Contre Tous (novice hncps chase) UP 2/1>

4.00 Punch – As De Pique (Ireland, track,all hncps) 14 UP 11/1> 

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

none today.

4.Any general messages/updates etc

One of you, James, I think, posted a comment about when best to take a price etc. There will never be an exact science with this but BFSP does seem to be the way forward,with those 11.00 or bigger, as to date the bigger priced horses have more than made up for any horses that have shortened from morning odds. There may be some where you take a view and you wish to take an earlier price. But, BFSP is the main option and you can set a minimum price of 11.00 say, and your bet will only be placed if the BFSP is at least that price.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. Fergal Mael Duin 4.20 taunton is a tizzard/brennan feb handicap selection,i thinkhas a tendency to jump right so this track might suit,its bit of value anyway at 11-12/1

    1. Hi John.
      There is no ‘should do this’ should not do that approach and because this is the first month I have recorded results in such a way that odds idea is advice based on the evidence presented. That evidence suggests the most profitable approach is to focus on those that were available at 10s+ generally in the morning and/or went off 10/1+ BFSP.

      Backing all stats selections in section 2 has always been profitable since beginning of the season. The ratings pointers and now the odds evidence were attempts to reduce the number of bets and improve performance.

      Given there are no odds caps and the stats have always found decent priced winners that 10/1+ approach seems to be the way forward. Under those odds generally break even/small loss,on evidence in 2017 to date. Sadly I don’t have more data in which to make an informed choice which is my fault but we won’t be in that position again.
      Which to an extent is why some caution is advised esp with staking and buiding up.

      It is only advice and as it is only 1 month of data (albeit 240+ bets so a reasonable chunk) I am cautious not to say you must do X. There will be winners under 10/1 and maybe the way forward with those is to make a judgement and be more selective.
      Josh

      1. Okay, I’ll stick to the longshots then. I know one month is not enough data but I always felt longshots are the best way to make money. There is a reason most pro layers don’t lay above 10.0.

  2. John
    I make my living laying the real longshots in jumps races, both win and place. Have a look at the BF place odds sometime and see how far short of 1/4 odds the place prices are.
    Most pros may not lay above 10.0, but i thrive on it.
    Cheers
    Speedy

    1. You must have strong nerves, Ben! But I guess you’re highly selective, have built up a strong picture over time of what normally does and does not happen in the majority of specific type/class races, and use all the info at your disposal.

      Still though I suspect there may have been a few heartstoppers. Would be interesting to hear a couple of examples of any that caused a big scare when you have time.

    2. I briefly shared a flat with someone who did such laying. He lost £8,000 one day whilst the evening racing was on and I was having my dinner! He was, how you say, gutted. Good luck with avoiding the big shot winner.

      Also watch out for Gary Moore coming back to form. I was late with my post re Darebin yesterday and most of you likely missed it. The horses may have found some form now?

      1. Blimey, that is a bad punting session. I reckon Ben has been laying my jumps tips on free posts, that has probably paid for a holiday or two! 🙂

        Good luck to Ben, I don’t think I would have the nerve/application to do that but sounds like he has an approach that works.

        Gary Moore- do we know if they have had an actual virus or anything? But yes certainly much better signs recently and they could be about to hit a run.

        1. No virus I believe but a number of horses under the weather. The horses at this stable tend to go in and out of form. They seem to train them to a peak for a while and then they go off a bit and go up the weights as well. They are supposed to have a lot of winners in summer racing and have a few bets and then have a crack leading up to Christmas. They only have a few that are good enough to go to the festival and so dont have that as much of a big focus.

  3. With the place, I lay to a liability with no safeguard as the in running doesn’t heat up until the result is pretty obvious, allowing no worthwhile escape. According to my BF betting history I have laid 450 for the place for 2 losses this year. I lose about 40 times my stake per loss so that’s more than satisfactory. I lay them in the 20.0 to 90.0 range. I have my bot set up to do it. Very few give me a scare with most starting at the rear and staying there.
    With the win I lay in the 50.0 to 100 range but I lay in running when a horse or horses in my range settle in the last 1/5 of the field. I set a a couple of stop losses as they are usually activated if necessary in the win market. For example, if I lay a horse at 100.0 for $ 1000 liability I have a stop loss of $10 at 50.0. If it is activated I set another at 25.0 for the same amount. ( The lower one is rarely activated ). So, the worst case scenario is that I lose $250, approx, on the horse . How many times to you see a real outsider come from the rear in a NH race to win. Short price horses do it occasionally but not my guys. Most of the win lays don’t make much progress doing the race and drop out when the pressure goes on.
    I live in Australia and don’t know or follow form in the UK. It’s all in the numbers.
    I hope this doesn’t sound like a brag. It’s not meant to be.
    Speedy

  4. For those of you watching the races an example of the type of horse I lay for the place is Call The Cops in the 4.10 at Muss. He’ll probably be a touch over 20.0. His win price is currently 120 on BF, so, if the win price is accurate, he’s well under the odds for a place backer. This is my edge.
    The bloody thing will probably run a place !!!

  5. Well, pleasingly, Call the Cops ran last and was the first horse beaten when the pressure went on. My bot laid him at 36.0 for the place. Horses in the green and gold stripes usually run as expected when they are outsiders. I can’t remember one which seemed a threat when the whips were cracking.
    I’m off to bed now but I’m happy to answer questions if Josh doesn’t mind.
    I am a member ,Josh, but I use a different email address.

    1. Thanks for sharing, it’s interesting to see someone on the laying side of the huge longshots.
      It sounds almost too easy to make money, just setting up a bot to place lay all nags in the 20-90 range. I wouldn’t have the guts to lay place @90 unless the horse had three legs, heh.

      Personally I’m testing a fav laying system, which turned 1k into 1,65k in 6 days. Hoping I’ve finally cracked the laying game.
      Another system I’m testing is laying awful backers. I found this horrible guy who hits 15% at average odds 4.7 after 170 picks, hope he can continue.

  6. Thx Ben So I get what you say about it’s all in the numbers and can see that in the in running stop losses etc. But in this example case you did apply a real sensible piece of punting knowledge with ”horses in the green and gold stripes usually run as expected when they are outsiders”. But that’s just one case of course.

    Learnt something from your stuff here so thanks, it’s given me some ideas to test out.

    I’ll end up with something not often said….hope you keep losing! 🙂

      1. Not that I know of. 🙂
        What I meant was that if a McManus horse is one of my lays they usually don’t give a yelp. I lay them on price alone.

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