TTP Members Club- (£1520 in 33 days, to £10 bets…no i didn’t make that…)
Not before time, and arguably somewhat overdue, I have upped my game in terms recording results. (in part spurred on by some members who raised some fair points) If detailed spreadsheets are of interest, you can have a look at 2017 results to date HERE>>>
The profit level in 33 days looks rather pleasing to BFSP, if backing all runners. Before the latter half of January the Ratings Pointers had both out-performed backing all qualifiers, and reduced the number of bets. But looking through these results poses some questions.
Now able to look at these results in detail, against BFSP in particular, it is now apparent that backing all qualifiers in the 10/1+ range is probably the way forward, or certainly a valid starting point.
Since 1st Jan those available at 10/1+ in the morning, generally, or going off 10/1+ BFSP, are a rather healthy 16/123, +160 points BFSP (-5% commission). Backing all ‘ratings pointers’ horses in that same price range are 5/31, +50 points BFSP.
The stats seem to be rather good at highlighting ‘value’ priced runners. Sadly I have been sticking to the ratings pointers, and have backed some but not all of those bigger priced ones, and probably came out with a tiny profit come the end of Jan. +£1500 or so to £10 bets at BFSP would have been a bit more enjoyable! But, we are armed with that information now and with any luck long term patience will now be rewarded. Playing those bigger odds is all about profit, and not winners. There have been losing runs of 9,30,11,8,12,10 (current one) in that time which given the win% and the odds is par for the course. And there may be worse ones than that. It can be a long time between drinks but the winners are worth waiting for.
Winners this year have been priced 12,12,14.22,32.81,8.6,9, 49,12.39,12.5,36,7.46,12.38,13.5,13.56,7.63,12.68
I used to say to stick with Ratings Pointers horses based on how they had performed and then work out which bigger priced ones to back. It appears we should probably start with the bigger priced ones, from all qualifiers, then work out which ones in the 4/1 – 9/1 range to back, using the pointers, trainer form etc to help. Food for thought.
Anyway, I will leave that there. It is rather exciting moving forwards and with any luck the stats continue to highlight big priced winners as that is where the profit lies. The success of the stats to BFSP helps alleviate any ‘getting on’ problems also.
Loose Chips- 1 point win – 10/1 (BV/PP/SJ/BetfS)
Sandy Beach – 1 point win – 10/1 (general)
Well these poor buggers have an extra burden to carry with my tipping coin on them but at 10s I really can’t leave either of these, with so many questions over the shorter priced ones also.
Loose Chips- we all know that he may not be good enough to take this, his record in C2 worth this amount is 0/9,1p, that place LTO- and that was a Veteran’s race. But, there was plenty of depth to that race and he led until 3 out. His mark is near the high end but I am uncomfortable saying he can’t win this. He is in form, running well, and we have seen what Longsdon can do with these old boys. This one rarely runs a bad race. What swung it,other than the price, and his front running style, was that this could be a severe test given the rain they are expecting. I know he is better on a sounder surface but I am convinced he will handle it, over this trip,better than many in here. He doesn’t really have a heavy ground concern or a stamina concern- a few of these have that question to answer. I also thought he may be able to see off Venetia’s, and with any luck set his own pace. We know he bounces around here and at 10s, I just couldn’t resist. This could be his last hurrah, one final big pot. My head says he may well get swamped late by younger legs but plug on for a place. The debate was go EW or add another in…
Sandy Beach..again a double figure price has tempted me in. On breeding I have stamina doubts but he has won over 2m7f,and placed over this trip- he is 3/9,6p chasing and is unexposed over this distance. He also handles heavy no problem, which I am taking a punt it may well be. This is only his 3rd run of the season and races after 72 days off the last day- running well, looking outpaced for a time. IF this has been the target, and given the prize pot it may well have been, he could come on a bundle for that run. Tom Scudamore climbs back on also, the pair 1/1. From the bottom of the weights, given connections,and the horses unexposed profile, 10s just seemed too big. He may not stay, but I can take that chance at the price.
Of the rest…
Beg To Differ is probably deserving of his place near the top and may win,but I am not touching 4s. On his form with Loose Chips here last season, he will finish ahead of him. But, his two best recent runs have come in first time headgear- visor when he won here and cheepieces LTO in the Welsh National where he ran well. There is a chance he doesn’t respond again, and he is inconsistent, much like his trainer this season. I can live with him beating me at 4s. He can hit one also.
Otago Tail- had a very hard race only 14 days ago and carries clear top weight in this- those types on the last 9 years are 0/9,0p,taking account of jockey claims. Clearly given his form he has a chance, but again at the price, happy for him to beat me. Those two stay and handle the ground.
With the rest, there are big questions over a combination of soft/heavy and 24f. Rock The Kasbah- has stamina to prove but is unexposed over the distance. But he will need to stay in this ground. Sandy Beach has the same question but one is 4s, the other 10s. I can’t back him at that price given the unknown. Irish Saint has similar questions and didn’t set the world alight LTO. Questions to answer. Antony- has had a break which is a question and the form of his Ascot win hasn’t worked out. He was poor LTO also. His stamina over this far, in heavy, is an unknown and he can jump out to the left, well he did at Ascot- the fences may be his downfall here if he does that. Happy to take on.
Turban is interesting enough at his big price (40s) I suppose and a chance he grabs a place. He doesn’t look in the best of form, many others including the other selection are more unexposed,and there is also a stamina question to my eye. He isn’t the most consistent and Sandy Beach was quite a way ahead of him LTO also. I can’t see why he should overturn that, unless the trainer has been bringing him along slowly. (as I write…Big Tony Calvin on The Betting Lab likes him as an EW bet! Ah. I can kind of see why. Esp when glancing back to his Irish form. 40s is probably way too big and does allow you to overlook recent iffy form.. I must have some loose change somewhere…)
PACE- well Loose Chips will try and make all and hopefully Otago is happy to track – they should go a sensible pace in this ground and Loose Chips may take it up if and when Otago’s last race starts taking its toll! Sandy can race midfield or be held up- you won’t want to have to make up too much ground here so with any luck Scu will have him in a decent position.
Five In A Row – 1 point win – 7/1 (general)
Well I have just about convinced myself 7s is ok in this. A few things caught the eye really.. he is young, unexposed over fences/these trips and looks like he may relish it. He has course form, is a prominent racer and is generally consistent. Ellison’s string are also in super form, 6/17,9p the last 14 days. There is a lot to like his profile and he usually tries his best. Something clearly went amiss the last day as that wasn’t his running, but he flopped in the same way on his second start last season. He is 3/4 in Februrary and can be readied after a break. There should be more to come from him and I am interested how he does over this trip. Of course he may not stay but he should give it a good go, if at his best.
Of the rest..well I will be the first to cheer Alvarado on and he could win this well. Stamina wont be a problem and it will be fascinating to see how Brennan rides him and if he has the pace to hold a prominent position. If not, it will be hard around here of the leaders don’t come back and he could be left with plenty to do to get up the straight. He is 12 also. I thought 6s ok, without being overly generous, mainly due to the track/being held up concern more than anything. Connections will want to get into the Grand National and they are running out of chances.
Itstimeforapint looks ok enough but has had a few goes at similar trips and the selection could have more to come, whereas this one will just run his race again I think, which may be good enough. There is a class niggle with him for a race like this also. At 8s, happy to leave I think. He should give it a good go. The likes of Dancing Shadow and Gonalston Cloud can get detached/be help up and again that could be asking for trouble around here. They could have plenty to do but Gonalston is interesting and again always gives his all. He may not be far away. I have stamina niggles for the likes of Azure Fly and Beeves. I wait to see if this track will suit Just A Par, he can be lazy and is a stout stayer. If holding his position and here to run well he could do well, but that is a big lump to lug around over 4m, and you need a lot of class to do that. He could have other targets.
One of the unmentioned ones will no doubt win now. It looks a decent enough race but I have gone with one who could have more to come over fences and could really improve for this trip, if back to form. Hopefully that PU was nothing more than a blip. Ellison is on fire at the moment and this one should be in the perfect track position.
That will be all for ‘tipping’
Good luck with any fancies.
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
1.15 Sand – Grey Gold
Saturday Trainer/Jockey Combo (14/1<)
1.15 Sand – Bold Henry
1.40 Weth – Atirelarigo
3.35 Sand – Rock The Kasbah
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
1.15 Sand – Grey Gold (12/1<) (#9)
1.40 Weth – Hainan (12/1<) (#2)
3.35 Sand – Antony (14/1<) (#6)
Handicap chase/hurdle portfolio – Live Test
12.55 Muss- Landmarque
3.00 Sand – Connetable
That will be all for today.