TTP Members Club- (£1520 in 33 days, to £10 bets…no i didn’t make that…)
Not before time, and arguably somewhat overdue, I have upped my game in terms recording results. (in part spurred on by some members who raised some fair points) If detailed spreadsheets are of interest, you can have a look at 2017 results to date HERE>>>
The profit level in 33 days looks rather pleasing to BFSP, if backing all runners. Before the latter half of January the Ratings Pointers had both out-performed backing all qualifiers, and reduced the number of bets. But looking through these results poses some questions.
Now able to look at these results in detail, against BFSP in particular, it is now apparent that backing all qualifiers in the 10/1+ range is probably the way forward, or certainly a valid starting point.
Since 1st Jan those available at 10/1+ in the morning, generally, or going off 10/1+ BFSP, are a rather healthy 16/123, +160 points BFSP (-5% commission). Backing all ‘ratings pointers’ horses in that same price range are 5/31, +50 points BFSP.
The stats seem to be rather good at highlighting ‘value’ priced runners. Sadly I have been sticking to the ratings pointers, and have backed some but not all of those bigger priced ones, and probably came out with a tiny profit come the end of Jan. +£1500 or so to £10 bets at BFSP would have been a bit more enjoyable! But, we are armed with that information now and with any luck long term patience will now be rewarded. Playing those bigger odds is all about profit, and not winners. There have been losing runs of 9,30,11,8,12,10 (current one) in that time which given the win% and the odds is par for the course. And there may be worse ones than that. It can be a long time between drinks but the winners are worth waiting for.
Winners this year have been priced 12,12,14.22,32.81,8.6,9, 49,12.39,12.5,36,7.46,12.38,13.5,13.56,7.63,12.68
I used to say to stick with Ratings Pointers horses based on how they had performed and then work out which bigger priced ones to back. It appears we should probably start with the bigger priced ones, from all qualifiers, then work out which ones in the 4/1 – 9/1 range to back, using the pointers, trainer form etc to help. Food for thought.
Anyway, I will leave that there. It is rather exciting moving forwards and with any luck the stats continue to highlight big priced winners as that is where the profit lies. The success of the stats to BFSP helps alleviate any ‘getting on’ problems also.
***
TIPS
3.35 Sandown
Loose Chips- 1 point win – 10/1 (BV/PP/SJ/BetfS)
Sandy Beach – 1 point win – 10/1 (general)
Well these poor buggers have an extra burden to carry with my tipping coin on them but at 10s I really can’t leave either of these, with so many questions over the shorter priced ones also.
Loose Chips- we all know that he may not be good enough to take this, his record in C2 worth this amount is 0/9,1p, that place LTO- and that was a Veteran’s race. But, there was plenty of depth to that race and he led until 3 out. His mark is near the high end but I am uncomfortable saying he can’t win this. He is in form, running well, and we have seen what Longsdon can do with these old boys. This one rarely runs a bad race. What swung it,other than the price, and his front running style, was that this could be a severe test given the rain they are expecting. I know he is better on a sounder surface but I am convinced he will handle it, over this trip,better than many in here. He doesn’t really have a heavy ground concern or a stamina concern- a few of these have that question to answer. I also thought he may be able to see off Venetia’s, and with any luck set his own pace. We know he bounces around here and at 10s, I just couldn’t resist. This could be his last hurrah, one final big pot. My head says he may well get swamped late by younger legs but plug on for a place. The debate was go EW or add another in…
Sandy Beach..again a double figure price has tempted me in. On breeding I have stamina doubts but he has won over 2m7f,and placed over this trip- he is 3/9,6p chasing and is unexposed over this distance. He also handles heavy no problem, which I am taking a punt it may well be. This is only his 3rd run of the season and races after 72 days off the last day- running well, looking outpaced for a time. IF this has been the target, and given the prize pot it may well have been, he could come on a bundle for that run. Tom Scudamore climbs back on also, the pair 1/1. From the bottom of the weights, given connections,and the horses unexposed profile, 10s just seemed too big. He may not stay, but I can take that chance at the price.
Of the rest…
Beg To Differ is probably deserving of his place near the top and may win,but I am not touching 4s. On his form with Loose Chips here last season, he will finish ahead of him. But, his two best recent runs have come in first time headgear- visor when he won here and cheepieces LTO in the Welsh National where he ran well. There is a chance he doesn’t respond again, and he is inconsistent, much like his trainer this season. I can live with him beating me at 4s. He can hit one also.
Otago Tail- had a very hard race only 14 days ago and carries clear top weight in this- those types on the last 9 years are 0/9,0p,taking account of jockey claims. Clearly given his form he has a chance, but again at the price, happy for him to beat me. Those two stay and handle the ground.
With the rest, there are big questions over a combination of soft/heavy and 24f. Rock The Kasbah- has stamina to prove but is unexposed over the distance. But he will need to stay in this ground. Sandy Beach has the same question but one is 4s, the other 10s. I can’t back him at that price given the unknown. Irish Saint has similar questions and didn’t set the world alight LTO. Questions to answer. Antony- has had a break which is a question and the form of his Ascot win hasn’t worked out. He was poor LTO also. His stamina over this far, in heavy, is an unknown and he can jump out to the left, well he did at Ascot- the fences may be his downfall here if he does that. Happy to take on.
Turban is interesting enough at his big price (40s) I suppose and a chance he grabs a place. He doesn’t look in the best of form, many others including the other selection are more unexposed,and there is also a stamina question to my eye. He isn’t the most consistent and Sandy Beach was quite a way ahead of him LTO also. I can’t see why he should overturn that, unless the trainer has been bringing him along slowly. (as I write…Big Tony Calvin on The Betting Lab likes him as an EW bet! Ah. I can kind of see why. Esp when glancing back to his Irish form. 40s is probably way too big and does allow you to overlook recent iffy form.. I must have some loose change somewhere…)
PACE- well Loose Chips will try and make all and hopefully Otago is happy to track – they should go a sensible pace in this ground and Loose Chips may take it up if and when Otago’s last race starts taking its toll! Sandy can race midfield or be held up- you won’t want to have to make up too much ground here so with any luck Scu will have him in a decent position.
2.05 MUSS-
Five In A Row – 1 point win – 7/1 (general)
Well I have just about convinced myself 7s is ok in this. A few things caught the eye really.. he is young, unexposed over fences/these trips and looks like he may relish it. He has course form, is a prominent racer and is generally consistent. Ellison’s string are also in super form, 6/17,9p the last 14 days. There is a lot to like his profile and he usually tries his best. Something clearly went amiss the last day as that wasn’t his running, but he flopped in the same way on his second start last season. He is 3/4 in Februrary and can be readied after a break. There should be more to come from him and I am interested how he does over this trip. Of course he may not stay but he should give it a good go, if at his best.
Of the rest..well I will be the first to cheer Alvarado on and he could win this well. Stamina wont be a problem and it will be fascinating to see how Brennan rides him and if he has the pace to hold a prominent position. If not, it will be hard around here of the leaders don’t come back and he could be left with plenty to do to get up the straight. He is 12 also. I thought 6s ok, without being overly generous, mainly due to the track/being held up concern more than anything. Connections will want to get into the Grand National and they are running out of chances.
Itstimeforapint looks ok enough but has had a few goes at similar trips and the selection could have more to come, whereas this one will just run his race again I think, which may be good enough. There is a class niggle with him for a race like this also. At 8s, happy to leave I think. He should give it a good go. The likes of Dancing Shadow and Gonalston Cloud can get detached/be help up and again that could be asking for trouble around here. They could have plenty to do but Gonalston is interesting and again always gives his all. He may not be far away. I have stamina niggles for the likes of Azure Fly and Beeves. I wait to see if this track will suit Just A Par, he can be lazy and is a stout stayer. If holding his position and here to run well he could do well, but that is a big lump to lug around over 4m, and you need a lot of class to do that. He could have other targets.
One of the unmentioned ones will no doubt win now. It looks a decent enough race but I have gone with one who could have more to come over fences and could really improve for this trip, if back to form. Hopefully that PU was nothing more than a blip. Ellison is on fire at the moment and this one should be in the perfect track position.
That will be all for ‘tipping’
Good luck with any fancies.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Jumps Angles
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
1.15 Sand – Grey Gold
Saturday Trainer/Jockey Combo (14/1<)
1.15 Sand – Bold Henry
1.40 Weth – Atirelarigo
3.35 Sand – Rock The Kasbah
**
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
1.15 Sand – Grey Gold (12/1<) (#9)
1.40 Weth – Hainan (12/1<) (#2)
3.35 Sand – Antony (14/1<) (#6)
Handicap chase/hurdle portfolio – Live Test
12.55 Muss- Landmarque
3.00 Sand – Connetable
**
That will be all for today.
Josh
31 Responses
Fergal O Brien has a fair scattering of runners tomorrow but the fact that Paddy has gone to musselburgh is fairly signifigent,its his first time up on Alvarado 2.05,He will probably keep him hand y up with the pace on this tight track,its a bit skinny at 6/1 though
I think its got some high grade form in this context; I also like Azure Fly at this new trip, with fast going and LH track to suit.
Brain fade, I meant RH, of course.
The more I look at it the more I think 6/1 looks like value and I could see him going off at half the price tomorrow.
Azure was NR two days ago,if Paddy ride on Alvarado it is my bet best class horse in that company
I agree with Josh inhis selections,Irish S is worth to look
i go for Suzie Hainan 13/2 1:40 W Dresden small ew 20/1
3:00 S Kk Lexion 11/1 and Lord Of The Island 16/1 Lexion win Lord ew
There is Mythmaker at Ling 2.00 i like that horse
3:20 W Milborough 7/1 against short priced fav
Itstimeforapint my betto win marathon Muss ,current price on Alvarado is to short
Interesting day of racing tomorrow a four from me.
Its not very original I am struggling to see past Alvarado in the Edinburgh National. Other than Just A Par (who I suspect has other end of season targets and probably wont appreciate tonight’s rain) he looks a class above these. Barring his fall LTO he has ran 2 very good races in Grade 3s and runs off the same mark. Completely ground versatile and is 212 at the track from his novice days. I think its absolutely massively eye-catching that Paddy comes here instead of Sandown or Wetherby for his 1st ever ride on the horse. He has won on each of his last 3 rides for O’Brien. We also know the horse will stay. He really needs to win tomorrow to have a chance of getting in the Grand National so we also know he will be trying.
My second is almost as original but I want to have a go on Otago Trail in the 15:35 at Sandown. Its been absolutely hammering down all evening where I live around 45 mins from Sandown so it looks like he is going to get ideal heavy ground tomorrow for the first time this season (4/5 on heavy overall). Would have been not too far behind Bristol De Mai if not for a horrible blunder at the last in the Peter Marsh so was probably fortunate to escape a rise in the weights and is still technically only 2lbs higher than when winning the Rehearsal. A lot of others have questions whether they will stay or handle the heavy ground. I would expect him to sit just behind Loose Chips and take over when the leader falls away (1/11 on soft/heavy handicaps). Obviously the weight trend is a negative however he looks the class horse in the race for me and hasn’t had any sort of issues carrying it on bottomless ground before.
Moving over to Wetherby (13:40), Somchine looks like a solid e/w bet. Up 5lbs for his win but the runner up has since franked the form winning NTO. Another one who won’t mind the rain. Ha always been extremely consistent and has been out of the first 3 on each of his last 8 starts. Will absolutely relish the conditions. McGrath comes over here for just the one ride and has been flying (8/33, 15p in the past 30 days). Expect him to be there or thereabouts. Obviously this is his first race in a class 2 but it doesn’t look a great deal harder than some of the recent races he has been contesting.
Finally I want a small e/w bet on Saborido in the 13:25 at Lingfield. His record in class AW handicaps reads 5/7, 6p. He is now back to his last winning mark last year and technically 3lbs lower with the jockey claim. Jockey is 1/4, 2p. He also likes it here and is 2/4, 3p. Trainer is a solid 9/35, 18p over Lingfield AW handicaps over the past 12 months. Gets an ideal draw in stall and hopefully will be able to lead from pillar to post.
Nick, I do enjoy reading your posts. Lots of reasoning unlike mine where I try to get everything in about a horse in one sentence. I have started to make the effort to follow you each day. Where do you get the time? Are you a full time punter? Hard way to make a living as I know. Thank god for football betting.
Anyway, I do like Otago Trail and follow him when ground conditions suit. I see he has attracted money this morning.
hi martin. seems u do well with football bets. are u into accas or single bets. if u dnt mind sharing ur bets?
Singles only but for stakes between £500 to £1,000. I have followed football since I started school and so 50 years. That builds you up a lot of experience and knowledge. Plus today there are some good data analysis websites about to pick up little nuggets on. I am on Chelsea to beat Arsenal and so if that comes in I can have a few extra quid on the horses. I have done very well with Burnley to win at home this season. They tend to go off a reasonable price as were Leicester last season.
Thanks Martin. No very much semi-professional at most. Just get home from work and other than sorting dinner its very much all systems go at the cards.
Not sure I am mentally setup to be a professional gambler. Learned that when I was playing poker on the same level I treat my horse racing. Enjoy your time in Vegas. I fly out there for 2 weeks during the World Series in just under 4 months time.
It helps to go pro when you have built up a tidy bank to fall back on. My wife is a lot happier about it with sufficient funds to fall back on if you have a bad year or two. Not the game for someone with responsibilities without a decent bank balance to fall back on. You are right though about mentality as you need to stick with it in bad times and go with what you think works and take a longer term view on you profit target. Not for everyone and do what suits you best.
After avoiding to have a small e/w punt on Ballythomas at 33s and deciding against backing Diego Du Charmil nice to Otago Trail save the day. Obviously the ground was spot on but watching the race I thought it was his consistent jumping that won him that (unlucky Josh).
Ah yea nothing unlucky there, I was happy to take him on at 4s, his class came through. Clearly a tough horse, was hoping weight and more so hard race LTO may have paid at some point, 14 days later. But, it didn’t. great spin from Chips as always. Well done.
I Beg to Differ Josh I fear you are going to get John Joed!
You say he is like his trainer, inconsistent I could say JJ has always has been. But I have come to except that’s his MO impossible to read, but he seems to like races he has won before. I though some time ago that maybe he enjoys the hospitality with certain sponsors.
On the horse though not only is he better in at the weights but the age is more favorable as last year I would have thought he was on the young side for this test, where’s chips is not getting faster
Look more closely at his form 4th ,18 1/2 behind Native River is good if that ones to figure in the GC, the 3rd was 17l back and it was an extreme trip. The UR was going well and clipped heels, the Chp race was the only time he has encountered good ground which he is possibly not suited to. On soft has an 9 times won 3 placed 6 which is more consistent than his trainer lol. Chips on the other hand has not won in 6 try’s 3 miles on soft, and this will be his joint highest mark when attempting it.
Oh I may well be- my two are on the drift so I know my fate I think! Hopefully Ellisons can do the job for me.
Jonjo’s has a clear chance, I just couldn’t take 4s personally. There is a chance that he doesn’t respond to the headgear again and hits a fence. if he travels well, jumps well, and finds, he deserves his place at the top of the market for sure. Loose Chips is fine on soft, enough commendable efforts/close finishes for me not to be put off, at that price! My theory was he could be the last one going in the final furlong or so, and that may be enough!
I thought well Jonjos may have an off day, Hobbs/Nicholls may not stay,Otago has big weight/hard race LTO,Antony has stamina to prove in this ground/the break. So, that left three really!
Clearly asking all of those to read that script may be asking for too much, and Jonjos will hack up, but you have to take on 4s shots in races like this for me.
I was on loose chips last run here and one thing you get from him around here is a great run, He loves the place jumps great and will give his all, whether that will be enough we will have to see but I for one will be cheering him on.
Billy No Name at Sandown 300. Sky paying 4 places. I think could go well judging by heavy performances.
Good luck everyone
The mares hurdle 1.05 Weth…..
Easy to jump over it with a ‘no value, one of the top two will win and the others have no chance’ two second summary. And I did. Until the hidden possibility further down gave a little whisper.
Our old friends Sue Smith/Danny Cook……. and Squablin.
It’s easy to see the French horse winning and ending up in a few good races in future. It’s easy to see the Hobbs horse fulfilling it’s potential of that Class 4 Ascot bumper win.
But could they both be caught out (or at least tested) by Danny Cook doing a front running master class and using that Revoque/Sir Harry Lewis influence to sneak a surprise?
Of course they could be using it as another learning/growing opportunity and just settle out the back of midfield. If so, fate is likely to be clear early on. Or today could be the day they unleash.
Would have preferred heavier ground to even the apparent class disparities up a bit…but although 100-1 will be seen again for a Revoque runner, it’s unlikely to for anything with Sir Harry in the line, and may never be seen for Squablin in particular again if a reasonable run is seen today.
It’s been about 6 years since Alta Rock did something similar. Time for a repeat maybe.
…and just as this plays out we’ll hopefully have the next turn up. 1.10 Fairy. Ranchers Lass
2m5 and fences in heavy ground could suit this Tikkanen mare down to the ground. Some evidence of success for Jockey/trainer combo in similar races in the past, and suggests trainer can put one in a novice that has a chance of/is expected to run well. 80 best with WH, haven’t checked BF and could be anything.
Venita Williams and Liam Tredwell
1.15 Sandown Bright New Dawn
My last day of punting for a while as I am off to Las Vegas. I was glad to see a Gary Moore fancied runner go in yesterday. Maybe he can find his form and we can back a few winners again?
Firstly today two outsiders that look overpriced based upon what they are capable of. 12.50 LP Gunner Moyne (25/1 last night when I got on) and 6.45 Nc A Boy Named Sue (16/1 last night). I do like Mr Mix in 3.00 SP as conditions seem to suit and he may have some improvement in him. I also like the old stager Alvarado but the value has mostly gone. There are some short price shots that need to deliver today. I will see how brave I am later once the racing starts re lumping on.
Good luck today and next week.
Cheers Martin, enjoy Vegas. Hopefully you win a jackpot on one of the machines/poker or something 🙂 (if you are allowed) Have a great time. Josh
Yeah I was toying with Mr Mix myself although ended up leaving it given the race looked tricky but given the drift definitely worth an e/w punt.
On first look through last night it was Dresden that took the eye as a potential maximum bet. But the short layoff was a worry, enough to make a hold until managing to get some trainer indication on wellbeing (and the potential worry on whether this is just a sweetener for the Grand Annual).
Finally got it – sounds like the horse is (”very”) well at home and no obvious fitness worries + is there to win – although a little late to get the 22s and now 18 + a few bits of up to 25 on Betfair (could easily end up around 30 there so may be worth holding on till closer).
So first thoughts were that Dresden could carry half these and still win. That race at Ascot last year was an eye opener (although more on the painful/exciting side for me with max on Dunraven Storm who took half the fences round with him and still managed to give a few moments where victory was possible).
Only 6 lengths behind Sire De Grugy a couple of runs ago and an early mistake reportedly put paid last time, Dresden is only 7, potentially the only true Class 2 horse in the field (arguably doctor Phoenix may be up to it and 1 or 2 others have potential).
18s is a massive price given the make up of the race.
The doubt? The extra couple of furlongs although that Ascot race was over 17 and would have ridden more like 2m 3.
If this was 2m 1 I’d probably be breaking the piggy bank, and a good run here may make the Grand Annual a realistic target.
Hi Josh / All
Firstly, Excellent work Josh those figures are great including the multiple big odds winners, the benefit of seeing these results first hand and the pattern of occurring winners sits well with me. Its the bottom line that counts and with correct staking losers are fine as its just one step nearer to the next big winner…
Secondly an apology some time ago I mentioned following the sire “Dragon Pulse” on Polytrack between 5F & 7f and missed posting up the one at Dundalk yesterday. It ran in the 7.00pm Jon Ess first time out maiden and was nutted on the line was 33/1 but a huge 141.62 on BF with 31.34 for a place and 19.5 in the 4 to be placed market….I did spot it late and took £250.00 for 2 x £5 place bets and just missed the jackpot win. Its only the second Dragon Pulse to run at Dundalk with Main Pulse having 2 runs at huge odds also with a best placing of 4th last run. Hope some of you spotted it but worth keeping this sire on side for these 5F -7F polytrack events…..
No joy again for the main sire selections with a 3rd the best they could muster and the stat of the day finishing 2nd……Onwards to today with 1 main sire selection, 2 stats of the day (mainly due to poor odds) and 4 selections for the new Newcastle dual winner strategy….
2.30 Lingfield – Come on Dave 8.5 best odds Stan james
Red Clubs, 5F, 16 runs, 7 wins, 10 places 43.75% win SR, 62.5% place SR
Basically this fellow loves to lead when he does he often wins in fact all 10 of his wins 7 on AW have come when leading, He is drawn perfectly in 1 today to do just that the only other pace pressure could come from Mossgo drawn 2, An 8 year old with still lots of ability has won off as high as 87 on polytrack at Chelmsford and gets in off 79 today. He must have a great chance if mastering Mossgo for the lead and has every opportunity to do that from stall 1.
Staking £14.38 – 2% of £719.07
Stats of the Day
Well i was only going to put up 1 as he was originally forecast at 6.0 but the opening shows have him as a short price fav Yuk but here goes….
7.15 Newcastle – Garrick 2.38
This comes down to the trainer John Gosden in 1M class 5 maidens at the track he is 10 runs, 5 wins, 7 places with only 1 other trainer in here managing a win between them. As for the horse he is a first time starter and could be anything but seems like the money is there, Will wait till later and see if there is any value…..Second pick unfortunately is short too
12.50 Lingfield – Fire Diamond 3.0 generally available
Again its the trainer stats Tom Dascombe (who is fine form by the way) has a 15 run, 6 wins, 9 places record in Class 5, 7F handicaps at the track, there have been 6 different winners and 9 different placed horses so it seems that he targets these races, Richard Kingscote has been on 5 of the winners and takes the ride today and well the horse is improving rapidly which anyone can see winning its last 4 so 5 looks like it may be on the cards.
Newcastle (Horses that have won at least 2 course wins on Tapeta)
5.45 – Ronnie the Rooster (2 course wins) 6.5 best odds Betvic
Staking £20.50 – 2% of £1024.65
7.45 – Safe Voyage (2 course wins) 5.0 best odds generally available
7.45 – Testa Rossa (4 course wins) 7.5 best odds 4 books
Split staking £10.41 on each
8.15 – Poppy in the Wind (2 course wins) 3.25 generally available
Staking £19.66 – 2% of £983.33
All the staking is based on worst case scenario that each one loses but allows us to take BOG.
Right I’m off to sign up to Josh’s members club as its about time i did and offered my support I encourage any one who hasn’t to do so also as you won’t find a better blog, all the best with any selections
Cheers
Steve
…and one for a place back from the doldrums…
Aristo Du Plessis 3.15 Muss
There’s been something wrong in the yard. Looked like it may have turned a corner with Landmarque, but trainer indicates one or two may be taking their time to get over it.
That at least would offer some excuse for a couple of woeful performances from Aristo. Don’t think that’s it’s just that he is not up to it and this fast 2m is probably his best conditions.
But is he fully over whatever was wrong?
Plenty that could be there turning in and even end up in the County, but the hope is that they let Lucy Alexander kick on in front, get a breather, then have enough to outrun the others over the last two. Roughly 20-1 to find out, should get a run out of it, and may find some much bigger on Betfair later given recent runs and competition.
TTP stats 10/1+ backers will be hoping you are right Steve! He will bounce back at some point and aware of yard issues. 1st time blinkers also and he will give it a good go from the front no doubt. May well fade in final couple furlong but 20s shots will usually have a question or two to answer!
If you need one to get you out of trouble today, maybe Darebin, 4.15 LP, for Gary Moore. The stable are finding some form.
One to end up with. Jessie Allan 6.45 Newcastle. I liked the way this kept on to grab 4th and a big place payoff two runs back. May well ultimately be better than 90% of this field and is pretty much the outsider for now. Did nothing last time but in this grade and at 66-1 (bits of 100 on BF and maybe much higher come race time) we can ignore that. Some doubt whether 7f or 1m really suits (this and the last were 7) but they seem to be persevering.
Off to find that 2 quid down the back of the sofa.
One to look out for over 5 furlongs maybe?