TTP Jumps Notes: 02/02/17 (complete)

all qualifiers + all ratings + Notes+ Feb pointers + some results + Hunter Chases

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

2.10 Towc – Eaton Rock UP 11/8>11/10

3.55 Tow – Cheat The Cheater UP 6/1>5/1

Top 3

 

Geegeez Gold 

Top Rated

2.10 Towc – Eaton Rock

Top 3 

3.10 Winc – Copain De Classe UP – 9/4>3/1

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

 

TOWCESTER

2.10 – Eaton Rock (micro class) 11/8 UP 11/10

2.45 – The Artful Cobbler (all hncps) 9/1 UP 6/1

3.55 – Cheat The Cheater (hncp c) 6/1 UP 5/1

4.25 – Thatchers Gold (hncp h) 14/1 UP 16/1

 

WINCANTON

3.10

Copain De Classe (hncp h) 9/4 UP 3/1

Clondaw Shane (hncp h) 8/1 14,30 UP

Masters Hill (micro distance+ runs this season)  20/1 14 2nd 16/1

3.45

Flaming Charmer (hncp chase + micro distance+ runs this season) 5/1 14 UP

4.45

Dark Invader (NHF) 6/1

Rosemary Russet (NHF) 12/1 14,30 UP

Chief Sittingbull (NHF) 16/1 UP 25/1

 

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3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

There are no massive priced ones, 16/1+ that catch the eye really. Masters Hill is a 3m chaser really and hasn’t shown much recently, including when returned to hurdles two starts ago. Aged 11 I would like to think more progressive rivals will have his measure here back over 19f.

Thatchers Gold just looks out of sorts to my eye and isn’t really doing anything differently. Market support should be noted with this yard and on his 3rd run of the season, were he to be backed, i would take note. But, he just looks out of form, unproven on heavy also.

The Artful Cobbler is interesting at around 9s, in an interesting looking race. He handles heavy and is unexposed enough, especially at this distance (may not stay of course). He gets first time headgear which is different and may be a reason for an improved run. So, you can make some sort of case for him, if they sparked him into form. It could be he just wants a thorough test of stamina, which he will get here.

Then there is the bumper at Wincanton. All unexposed, so all not impossible. Lavelle is 0/23,5p with second time starters, which tempers enthusiasm with hers and the market may guide. He didn’t do much on debut.

Fry’s is a decent price also, 12s in places. I can’t work out why Fehily isn’t on? unless something to do with the owners. He rides Honeyball’s here which caught the eye I suppose. Fry has a decent record in this race, and with first time starters, so a big run from his won’t be a shock, the market will no doubt guide as to his chance.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results are a work in progress,and will be completed this week at some point. There were some errors in my results links yesterday,spotted and corrected by one of your good selves, Andy M. (missed a winner or two!) And he has also made some additions and added some coding. I have decided to go back to the start of the year and also create a full spreadsheet for all qualifiers, section 2. I am working my way through that.

RESULTS…

A new link to an Excel Spreadsheet will follow. Appears I keep making errors with various things and that latest update isn’t correct either!

 

NEW I have pulled together some trainer stats for February, members only. You can flick through those HERE>>>

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5. Hunter Chases – Live Test 

Jockeys (33/1<)

4.15 Winc- Loch Ba BD / Tony Star UP

 

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That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. Some Feb Pointer Horses…

    2.00 – W – Baby King – 9/2 – WON 9/2>9/4
    2.25 – Clon – Battleford 7/1 2nd / Turcagua 5/2 PU
    3.10 W – Capain De Classe- UP
    3.35 – Clon – Upazo 13/2 – UP
    4.45 W – Victarian – 13/2 – UP
    5.50 Chelm – 4/1
    6.25 Chelm – 4/1

    Nothing at eye popping odds but will be interesting to see how they go. If any do win, hopefully your pin may land on them. Mullins does have a 4/9 shot at Clon also, I have left him off, in the first maiden hurdle I think.
    Josh

  2. Today’s left field one to watch….

    1.20 Clonmel An 18 runner 2m mares maiden.

    Winner is obviously most likely going to be the Mullins mare, with any of the other 5 at the top of the market having similarly obvious claims (to varying degrees). 50% of this field at least won’t be off and will most likely be settled out the back to run round in their own time.

    2 or 3 of the top 5 could easily find the ground tough and need one or two more for experience. In the higher odds the only one that shouts ‘maybe’ is the Michael Winter runner but jockey is 0/5 and Winter doesn’t have a massively enticing maiden record (with winners anyway, no time to search placed).

    That leaves the potential for a 100-1 + shot to outrun its odds.

    And that may be Nancys Icon. Mahler mare that may have a little more strength at this early stage than has appeared so far, and trainer has had similar long shots run good races in similar races in the past out of the blue (with today’s jockey on too, though admittedly only up to 66-1 that I could find).

    If 100-1 holds up as is likely, it’ll probably go off at 1000 on BF (there already is plenty on offer at that) and that is a realistic price. Logically can’t win unless the Mullins horse makes mistakes in the ground/falls/isn’t as good as the bumper run indicates (extremely unlikely)..and even then still has at least 3 others to beat.

    But the place is worth the minimum bet at a likely around 60 or 70 at a guess for what is probably a 16-1 shot, and the first 4 could be around the 30 mark for what is arguably an 8 or 10-1 chance if trainer has her ready to do what he’s done before.

    I’d make it the most likely of the long shots to get even remotely close, and still has 4 or 5 others to overcome that could finish 20 lengths in front and those still finish 30 lengths behind Mullins.

    Lot of ifs. Hopefully will give enough of a run to deliver some entertainment value for a few quid and the chance of a biggish place payoff.

  3. ..and another mares race that could throw up a surprise..

    2.35 Win Milan Hart

    Trainer has some historical success with runners first time over hurdles. This one has had 3 bumpers with 3 trainers, the latest with Martin Hill in a Class 3. Unsurprisingly didn’t make any sort of mark in that and difficult to tell if trainer just used that as it was the only outing available, or if he thought it might really be up to that class. Liam Heard rides and has been on a couple of others that performed well. Recent yard quote ”We were happy with Milan Hart’s first run at Chepstow this week (the Class 3 bumper). She will now be schooled for her debut over hurdles and is sure to come on for her first run back after a considerable break”

    Oliver Sherwood is bullish about Hitherjaques and is the obvious winner but unbackable. The others could easily end up pulling up or 50 lengths down. At 28s and higher Milan Hart is worth considering for a)the FC with Hitherjacques and b) a place although place only on BF won’t be massive.

  4. Pulled up Milan Hart. Probably worth remembering for a few runs down the line though.

    Let’s try and get one that’s got a more obvious chance…

    3.45 Wincanton Rouge Et Blanc

    12YO now but has run some good races on soft/heavy (occasionally in better class) and proved can do it after a break. Don’t think Sherwood would have persevered if he didn’t think the horse still had something and this quote may paint a picture…

    ”unseated at Aintree in early December and gave himself a big knee, he took a while to get over that and then went very quiet on me for ages, nothing specifically seemed wrong, he just wasn’t himself. He only came right again a couple of weeks ago and has been absolutely buzzing since. Rouge will love this heavy ground”

    Pilgrims Bay and Bennys would be worries, Gores I keeps surprising me, but at the prices (25 up) Rouge looks the best bet given ‘inside’ info (which often as we know goes wildly astray!)

    One last win for the old boy?

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