TTP Jumps Notes: 01/02/17 (complete)

All qualifiers + ratings pointers + Hunter Chase qual + note

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.40 Leic- Some Are Lucky (bonus stats) 3rd 4/1

(my word he is a monkey and needs some headgear,best horse in that race by some way I suspect,but just doesn’t want to go through with the effort when button pushed. One to be wary of moving forwards) 

Top 3

2.10 Leic – Ballinvarrig WON 6/1>5/1

3.10 Leic- Ozzy Thomas

4.40 Leic- Moscow Me UP 5/1

 

Geegeez Gold 

Top Rated

2.10 Leic – Ballinvarrig WON 6/1>5/1

Top 3

3.10 – Ozzy Thomas

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

LEICESTER

2.10

Huff And Puff (all hncps + hncp chase) UP 9/2, 6.00 BFSP

Ballinvarrig (all hncps) WON 6/1>5/1, 7.99 BFSP

3.10

Verygoodverygood (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 3rd 16/1 , 17.94 BFSP

Ozzy Thomas (hncp hurdle)

4.40

Moscow Me (hncp hurdle) UP 5/1, 6.8 BFSP

 

BONUS

3.40 Leic – Some Are Lucky 3rd 4/1, 5.68 BFSP

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HEREFORD

(NOTE: remember these are notes and not officially counted in results. The stats used are from before the track was closed for 3 seasons. As with all content, use as you please)

3.30 –

Aachen (all hncps, hncp chase)

Waldorf Salad (all hncps + hncp chase)

4.30

Petiville – (NHF)

 

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3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Verygoodverygood is the only ‘biggie’ 14/1, not on the RPs. I am not wanting to dive in although the trainer is in red hot form and the horse is only 2/11,6p in hurdles and gets a first time visor- they would be the reasons for having a dabble at that price. The concern is the soft ground- it is an unknown really but he has been kept to decent ground which suggests connections are not convinced. And his recent form has been poor and he needs the headgear to work. This is a stiff enough 2m4f and in this ground I am not convinced he will tough it out – I suspect there may be stronger stayers. But, you may disagree with that. I can see a case, but there are a few negs/questions. He is also 7lb above his last winning mark also.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: There were a few errors in that spreadsheet as pointed out by one of your good selves, including missing a winner, underestimating profit to BFSP is never a good thing 🙂 Working on updates/full version also.

**

 

5. Hunter Chases: Bonus ‘Live Test’ 

Trainers (16/1< guide)

4.00 Hereford – The Ould Lad

 

***

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are 3/4 so far…) (no such qualifiers today)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. One qualifier tomorrow for the long distance travellers.

    Newc. 5:00 – Voi (18/1/or less) currently a best priced 6/5.

    Not for me at this price, but can hopefully give us our first win – LSP -2.0

    Chris R.

  2. Highly speculative in a 14 runner class 6 at Kempton, but at big prices (40 in places) Young Office takes the eye. Visor first time, I don’t have access to any databases to get a full picture of how the yard does with visor first time but the only 2 I could find with a Google search unearthed a winner and a much improved place. Group 3 winning and Group 1 placed sire with a £20k purchase price. Not too hard to see this potentially being better than a Class 6 handicapper and at 40 it’s probably worth finding out.

    Evan Williams yard has seemed to me to be out of form last few weeks but recent signs (esp the bumper winner yesterday) that it may be turning around. Chances are the Tikkanen runner Market Road might show improved form 2.30 Hereford. Heavy ground should suit a Tikkanen and at 20 or 25 worth some EW consideration. £16k purchase suggests maybe not a world beater, but enough doubts around many of the others. Whatever happens today this one will win at some point. Other Williams runners Nansaroy and Firebird Flyer (who can occasionally turn in a big run in a tough long distance slog) are worth a look but too short for me balanced with what they’re up against.

    The hunter 4.00 Hereford. At 33 Night Alliance worth a look. Has won similar slog races and if you stretch interpretation a little there’s enough pattern in history to suggest ignoring a couple of bad runs may not be totally the wrong way to go. Same jockey on who’s won on it before.

    Lastly 4.20 Kempton. Bouclier. You wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the 9 win this. Bouclier has Kempton form, ran OK in a higher grade in the summer, and won an easy 7f AW maiden by a street in its early days with Cumani. At between 16 and 22-1 in a 9 runner race, and with the yard looking in reasonable form, it’ll be worth a small bet. Another that will pop up one day if today isn’t the one.

    4 x EW trebles and EW Acc. If they come in it’s a once (or maybe twice) in a lifetime and we’re collectively buying a (small) Caribbean island to be known as ‘RacingToProfit Punters Hideaway’. On their own their are some chances for an EW returning stake + a little extra.

  3. PPS Bouclier has just gone to 50 on Betvictor. There are possible pattern interpretations in form history that suggest it’s not inconceivable it can follow a couple of big beatings with an improved run. 50-1 shouts try me and find out.

  4. Today I think thee 4:25 Nc is very interesting with a 7/4 fav going for a 5 timer at Nc, up 23lb since that 1st win! I want to take this one on. The reasons the a) The weight rise, b) Trgs runners very poor last couple of weeks, c) In it’s last race there was only 5 runners & non of the others had won at Nc unlike 2 of today’s field & d) the Jadine runners see below.
    Jardine has 2 new recruit’s to his stable running after long absences both have been at a higher class than this field. Both are having there aw debut. The Sire check suggests nice fit’s. Magistral’s sire 6 Runs, 2 win 3 Placed. Thorntoun Care has only had one on C&D but 9 course runners for 2 wins & 4 placed and Aw figs for distance of 98 ran, 20 Won & 34 Placed.
    Jockey bookings suggest Magistral BF are fairly tight at around 16 on both. I am doing both win only as feel one will win easy o be nowhere.

    1. That’s a good spot Gary. Are there any records on Jardine’s runners off a big break (or any sort of longish break) that would add some extra confidence?

      Here’s a possible pointer too….record with new in the stable over 5 years 7/19/75, roughly 25% placed. Last year 4/12/38, around 30% placed

      1. The trg stats are nothing special but on Geegeez over a 2 yr period you would be in profit backing all his horses in each of these categories:- Today’s distance, AW runners, Trg change & 60+ days off. So that show’s you he now’s what he is doing and makes it worth a try against a fav I just have to take on. I like to find value by avoiding the obvious.
        Thorntoun Care seems to be attracting support now.

          1. Can usually rely on a Tom George handicap chaser to help me out!! That was never in much doubt, tanked all the way through that and jumped well. Good start to the month!

          2. Yes…Good start Josh. it’s a trul;y good thing to be able to rely on a tried and genuinely trusted trainer….Good for us Josh.
            Well done lad.

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