FREE DAILY POST: 20/01/17 (complete)

Tip in 3.20 + micro/angles etc…

 

Urgh. Tips for 2017 now 2/16,3p, +7.25 points. Thursday’s runners extended that losing run to 13. Brilliant. I can live with Alfie Spinner winning not tipped- I could look at that race again and wouldn’t have backed him cold. His age, 1/19 in handicap chases, career high handicap mark/performance needed and I was put off by K Lees recent form with those returning after a break. She was 0/20,1p since her last winner in March with those returning after 60+ days. By her own admission they had been needing the run this season, but maybe his win is a sign that things are back to normal- fitness was never usually an issue with their runners. Unlike Straidnahanna, One For Arthur, and that Ayr winner, I won’t beat myself up on not finding him.

My annoyance is threefold. Firstly the selections didn’t really run a race.  Second I didn’t given Cyclop enough consideration the evening before and Edmund highlighted how the flat track may help- I didn’t even consider that factor which was poor- but for falling, he was a dead cert to be top 3 I think, and suspect he would have gone very close. And thirdly, and not for the first time this season or last, I haven’t given myself any room to back a micro system qualifier. The Kerry Lee angle is up there with the Tom George one,and the Venetia one, as being proven. I didn’t have a penny on, having had enough exposure on my ‘tips’. The alternative was to just tip 1 horse, and also back the system selection.

But, it sounds like some of you backed him so well done. And, he also won for the new Trainer/Jockey Combo research. If that is a sign of things to come then happy days. My enthusiasm for researching trainer angles will always remain, some will be poor (handicap hurdle/chase portfolio) , some will work very well ( Lee/George/Venetia) and occasionally I will have a decent idea (TTP Ratings Pointers- well, so far so good albeit up and down last 2 weeks, but that’s how it goes)

I haven’t started doubting myself in 3m+ chases yet, but that time may not be far away. I am just not consistent enough. And keep making the same mistakes. This game is mostly in the mind. And if I don’t sound like a broken record, I am not far from doing so. Blogging is a tough place when you tip shit a lot of the time- well it is if you think of yourself as being quite good, combined with a conscience that others may be spending their hard earned on your ‘advice’. But it could be worse. We are in profit for the year. 7 more bullets to fire to try and build them up.

(and no need to comment on the back of the above, if you were tempted! My chin is up, and I will work through my issues. In general you are a supporting bunch albeit soon enough I may be the only one backing my tips!  Your energy is best spent on tipping us all some winners, you are rather good at that… 🙂 ) 

On we march..

***

TIPS

3.20 Chep

Dr Robin – 1 point win – 9/1 (Bet365/BV) PU

(something went amiss there it seems, sadly. hopefully not too bad. Albeit that winner, ‘smashed in’, wasn’t being beaten in truth. Unexposed enough,clearly they fixed whatever caused the PU LTO, soft ground ideal. Well done if you found him at a price) 

Yep I can’t let this one go off at 9/1, 8/1 without any support. He is unexposed, the yard looks to be coming back to life, they do well here, he has been running ok and he gets a first time visor – which from memory Bowen has used a few times on chasers to good effect. (Al Co sticks in the memory,think he had first time visor when he won for the blog at Aintree last may-albeit that is a small sample! I can remember the winners)

Bowen revealed the yard had been suffering from a cough in recent weeks and used that as an excuse for a few of his running below par, indeed at the start of this week he was 0/24 in the previous month. Although his two recent winners were expected to go well, if they were ill still, they wouldn’t have won for me. So, while that is not a reason to suddenly go ‘back all of Bowen’s’, whereas at the start of the week I may have been put off with his,based on trainer form, there really is no reason for that now.

It is possible this one was suffering from that cough LTO and was unable to finish. It is possible he just found the ground a bit too testing, or he did just bump into an unexposed one. Either way, at 9/1, given his unexposed profile, the headgear change,also the course form,the trainer being in better form,his/TJC stats at the track (TTP selection also) I am happy to have a go.

It is possible there is a fair bit of pace on also, that he can just track and with any luck pick up the pieces.

Of the rest..

Well I have backed the Lee horse, (Altiepix) system qualifier below (and also quals for the new ‘test’, +9 points after day 1) who was widely available at 15/2,8/1 last night- I hope any micro systems backers got on at that price. He looks interesting and races prominently. Lee has a very good record with horses first time up from other yards and following Alfie it would be dangerous to assume they are not fit now. I am not sure too many trainers will improve one from Gordon Elliot, but it will be interesting to see how he goes. He isn’t at a ‘tipping’ price now, but hopefully one of these two can win, for my bank balance if nothing else.

What other dangers? Well the Tizzard horse is probably a worthy fav- he won well, digging in and staying on dourly LTO. He got in a battle there and that run was only 12 days ago. He also had 10-7 on his back, and had 11-5 here, 12lb more. That may make no difference at all – but in the context of a tough race LTO, bigger field, it may. A question anyway. Clearly he is unexposed and progressive, and will be no shock winner. But he si 4/1, which is probably about right. If over those exertions LTO, he won’t be far away. (top rated HRB and Geegeez Speed, for info)

Brownville is interesting. NTD is in form and he is consistent. But he does need more you feel than on recent runs. He is open to attack from something with more in hand. That consistency may get him a long way in this but 5s is ok, without being overly generous to my eyes.

The final one I will mention is Loughalder, the old warrior. At 28/1 I would want to see some market support,which is usually important for this yard, not much over 16/1 SP runs a race- well with handicap chasers, 1/88,7 p those going off 22/1+, 8/202,31p 14/1-40/1 SP. So, they are hard to find. In any case he looks a bit out of sorts. He has bounced back around here before but is from a high enough mark now and this is deeper than his most recent wins- those near the top of the market, the front 4, do look most interesting and I would be surprised if one of them didn’t take this given their profiles. He won’t get an easy lead either, which can help him. He would be the monster price clanger, but at aged 11, it is hard to have much confidence at the moment.

I would like to think I have mentioned the winner in that lot somewhere. I can’t fancy the rest for one reason or another, either based on recent form, or their profiles etc.

PACE- well a few can get on with it so it will be interesting how it goes. The fav and Lees can be up there. Paddy The Oscar likes to lead, Loughalder can race up there also. Bowen’s will just track the pace hopefully and should be in the right spot with any luck.

**

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

3.20 Chep- Altiepix 3rd 8/1

 

TJCs – New, Live Test

(remember you can find these HERE>>>)

3.20 Chep- Altiepix (#9) (12/1<)  3rd 8/1

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– Live Test

1.20 Muss- Landmarque- UP

3.30 Muss- Moscow Calling- UP

 

**

That will be all for today. I could look at the AW stats etc, but I can’t be bothered in truth! I just can’t get excited about AW racing. No doubt  this will be the day the TTP stats highlight a bucket load of winners. Gerry has highlighted one of them below for interest. Dow’s handicappers can be backed blind at Wolvs for decent profits. I need to start turning my attention to tomorrow, start planning Cheltenham/the approach, and work out what to do for the summer.

NOTE: I will post up a Guest Blog post later on this morning, from a Mr Darran Pearce (some may recognise the name from ATR- makes the odd appearance) He is a Hunter Chase/PtP expert and you will enjoy the read. More on that later on. 

Have a great day and good luck with any bets,

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

46 Responses

  1. Open diary and write story Horse Selection,write your thoughts,fillngs etc,relax,it is just a story,you have many winners of that what you reject,small bet on selection small on your doubts selection
    Today i had winner but doubt appear,and i lost becouse i am trying something new,doubts may appear to cover value
    more someting is hide more easy to find that

  2. Evening Josh,
    may i please remind you 7.25 PROFIT for 2017
    I am not a paid member of this blog but get some much from it.
    I do a lot of my own research and spend a lot of the time on racecourses
    I have so much respect for the time and effort you put into this blog
    Bet you tips to £50 a point so still have a smile on my face and will have at the end of the year.
    Keep the faith

  3. Don’t worry. I rate races Class 3 or above. In the 3.20 my ratings were Alfie Spinner 57
    Dawson City 53
    Morney Wing 50
    Did I back the winner? No, like you I talked myself out of it – in spite of the fact that when Alfie moved to Kerry
    he won for the first time after a break of 60 days or more and she gave him a very positive word in the Racing Post. So it goes.

    1. Ah, that is frustrating, part part of the game we somehow have to learn how to cope with! While we all want to improve etc there is a reality that we will keep making such decisions, talking ourselves out of horses etc, we just have to try not to do it as much i suppose! GL

  4. Plenty to like about tomorrow. I have to give one more chance to Definite Outcome in the 14:10 at Chepstow. Won over course and distance, beating Auralliac, Potters Cross, Viux Lille and Arpege Dalane who have won or came second in good class 2s/3s since. He’s been backed into fav in both races since and disappointed although I think he was taking on much better opposition than here. Paul Maloney gets on board for the first time. He is absolutely flying with 6 wins from his last 13 rides. Looks a solid enough bet at 10s with 9 runners. In the 15:20 I was going to back How About It but he appears to be a NR so probably going to leave it now.

    Moving on to Musselburgh I still think that the 13 year old Quito du Tresor has it in him to win one more race. He has been running solidly in each of his last 3 races so I think the handicapper must be very generous to have dropped him 9lbs since. He appears to have just about spot on conditions so hopefully he will finally get his head in front but would expect him to be in the top 3. Russell is in much better form than she has been most of the season with most of her runners over the past week running solidly.

    In the next race I really fancy Miss Barbossa. The form of her last race is working out extremely well with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th all winning since. Handicapper has kindly dropped her 2lbs. Trainer is back in form with a winner earlier this week after going 6 weeks without one. She would probably have been my nap but for the step up in trip which is a bit of an unknown however I dont think it will be a problem based on breeding.

    Finally I want a bet on Little MissDaisy in the 13:30 at Lingfield. She won her maiden over course and distance before coming 6th at Chelmsford after missing the start but still was only 4 lengths back. That race looks like excellent form with the winner winning a class 4 off 9lbs higher after going close in a class 2 conditions race, the 3rd winning a class 5, the 4th coming 2nd in a class 5 and 8th and 9th both winning maidens(no other runners have ran since). She now drops down to a class 6. She also gets a jockey upgrade with Martin Harley onboard who has been ridding very well. Trainer form is a bit of an unknown given the lack of runners but she still deserves to be bet.

    1. I also go for Definite Outcome he has all chance to win if fit
      Class horse overhurdles he in,great efforts on G1,G2

    2. Musselburgh 3.30 / 24F
      Miss Barbossa’s furtherest distance; 21 1/2 F; was October on Good where she was 5th, ran out of puff.
      I am expecting G-S and though she has increasing speed figures, the ground/distance may be against her.

      ANDHAAR, 14/1, 365, (a horse that never quite made it though racing > Cl) gives best speed figure with conditions to suite. Two good speed figures ’15 & ’16 with 8lb or so less weight today.
      TOUCH OF STEEL, 11/2, I have both in a Reverse Forecast.
      INTERESTING:
      Lucy ALEXANDER is on TOS, for James Ewart and Blair Campbell (claiming 7lb) is on Andhaar for N W ALEXANDER.

    3. I can only assume yesterday was the Bet365 Staff Xmas party since after making How About It a non-runner they’ve priced him up again. Keeping it brief I think his race LTO is one of the better pieces of form here. Winner was likely going to finish 2nd in a class 2 before falling, 2nd hacked up in a class 3 on ground which was potentially not ideal, 3rd hasn’t ran but did beat Present Man earlier this season who has since won a grade 2 and the 4th was 2nd in a class 3 earlier this week. Barring the selection in 5th nothing finished including some solid class 3 yardsticks. He has been dropped 2lbs for that run and is on quite a nice mark 8lbs below his close 3rd to Double Shuffle and Fourth Act 13 months ago. The blinkers seemed to have helped LTO so its a positive they are retained as is Harry Cobden in the saddle.

      1. Hmm. Money seems to be coming so you may have picked out another one there! I would personally like to see a decent run over this far, in testing conditions, but you are getting a price for that run. I don’t think I have your enthusiasm for his Ludlow run LTO where he didn’t show enough for me. It was an OK race, but nothing special. I know the second franked the form- albeit he didn’t beat much at Taunton for me, not a great race.
        Cobden is interesting though- esp as i think she now has a policy of ‘the best jockey available’ having parted with Moore. I tipped him 3 starts ago at Ludlow, so it would be fitting on his 3rd run since then for him to win! I would personally want to see more. And I am yet to be convinced he relishes testing ground etc . Had the odd niggle about his jumping as well. This a bit tougher than Ludlow. Drop in class a pos.

        We shall see. Egg at the ready. I can see a case at that price, but I couldn’t get to a point of backing him. Albeit that comment isn’t worth much at the moment haha. GL.

        1. You might be right but I don’t think they would have sent him over 4 miles at Cheltenham and 3m4f at Haydock on Heavy if they didn’t think there was a reasonable chance of him staying (surely it wouldn’t have been to get his mark down) so by that theory you would think 3m on Soft will be fine. Guess we shall see.

          1. yea that is good logic, can see that case. Maybe they wanted to find out for themselves– at this stage they may still be unsure. Tricky with the Curtis yard- not sure how much of his form is down to the issues they have had, or he has his own issues. She is only 2/28 last 30 days again, maybe they have had their winter flu jabs like the Nicholls horses,and hence a dip. Having just watched the video of LTO he did travel and jump better than he has, but it was still a flat end to his run. I did think maybe Haydock had taken it out of him but he did have 30 odd days off.
            He will give you a run to a point if he travels like he did LTO, to about 5 out. Maybe today is the day. And you never know, he may have done too much in 1st time blinkers LTO (albeit looked ok to eye but you never know if they stress themselves) he may be used to them now, and conserve more energy.
            We will find out soon enough, you have got quite good at these 3m chases 🙂

      1. Thanks Eoin. I saw the Lingfield race which was agonising but not the Musselburgh one yet. Annoyingly given both halved in price I doubt they’re going to be anywhere near the odds next time. At least she proved she stayed.

  5. Hi Josh / All

    A mixed bag today just the 1 winner for the stallions from 4, Tynecastle Park looks like he needs a 3 mile + chase in the mud, A very high knee action and just warming up when the race is over, Maybe 1M 4F + at Southwell would see him to better effect, A little frustrating at Chelmsford this evening as nothing was able to come from behind had to be in first 3 preferably leading to have any chance which put paid to Firesnake & House of Commons both held up, Fortunately Seranade the Stars did just that and won as hoped, Of the ones to note Lightsome & Marshgate Lane had the same issues at Chelmsford being held up and at Southwell Alfolk wasn’t good enough but a good run from Ramblow at 25/1 (Over 62.00 at Betfair SP) in finishing 2nd 1st 2 well clear. Bring on a Spinner won well still improving and could have more improvement over further especially at Southwell……..On to tomorrow 1 stallion selection, 2 to note, and 2 I like the look of

    8.15 Wolves – Rupert Boy 26.0 best odds most books
    Frozen Power, 1M 11/2F, 5 runs, 3 wins, 3 places 60.00% Win & Place SR
    Won a maiden handicap over 1M at Southwell off 52 back in Feb 2016 and in 7 runs since has not troubled the judges, now racing off 50 has this combination of C & D for the first time, Out of the Scott Dixon yard (I believe Paul pointed out that they had been running with a virus) who have started to see better results of late Dr Red eye winning last week and Crosse fire running a good 3rd today gives us hope of a good run in what is a basement level class 7.

    Staking £17.86 – 2% of £893.04

    Others to note

    1.30 Lingfield – Snuggy 3.75 best odds 4 books including Hills & Betfred
    Elzaam 1 run, 1 win, 1 place
    Won her Maiden over 5F on turf off 67 and just the 4 runs on an artificial surface and 1 on polytrack at Kempton running a decent 3rd over 6F switched to here back over 5F off 62 should see her go well.

    3.40 Lingfield – Turnpike Trip 15.0 best odds Lads/betvic/hills
    Champs Elysees 25 runs, 9 wins, 13 places 36.00% win SR 52.00% place SR
    Henry Candy 5, 1, 1 with maidens last 2 yrs here – Could be anything solely sire based.

    2 i like…….

    7.00 Dundalk – Easy Boy 5.0 best odds 7 books inc Paddy/Lads/Coral

    This lad has had 23 runs 13 on turf and 10 at Dundalk with 2 wins 1 on either surface off 50 and most recently 45. He has been running consistently without winning until 2 runs back when they combined Cheekpieces & Tongue tie and that certainly done the trick winning well over the 1M trip in December, He then returned 2 weeks ago over the same C & D with the same CKP & TT and I was interested to see if they would have the same effect 2nd time around, Well as a hold up horse he hit all the trouble going hampered at least 4 times in the race and still finishing an honorable 5th of 13 beaten 1.5L and I have no doubt he would have won that race too. He keeps the same CKP & TT tomorrow and Pat Smullen takes the ride and although not well drawn in 12 his hold up style should negate this and with a trouble free passage make amends for his last run here. I think 5.0 is decent odds.

    8.30 Dundalk – Split The Atom

    Odds checker has gone down no money matched on Betfair as yet, Well I have put up this fellow the last twice and I have to go again based on his current wellbeing / mark / and 6F performances here. If we look at 6F he is 6 runs, 3 wins, 4 places and he has finished no worse than 4th over this trip here and that was his last run over 6F where he was slightly slow away and got shuffled back to last with horses cutting across losing many lengths in the process but still managing to get within 1.7L of the winner. He has won off 87, 80 & 77 over C & D and the handicapper has dropped him another 1lb to 79 today despite being runner up last time over 7F, HRB has him forecasted to go off around 4.5 and with a clear run should go close

    Thanks for your comments earlier Tim sorry I didn’t get back to you been busy most of the day will post up some additional info on Archipenko tomorrow,

    Good Luck everyone with your selections

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Good memory, Steve. Dixon actually had 6 runners Thursday. When the first went in (Wimboldsley at 9/2), I chucked four of the others in a small win L15. One nr and two decent (would’ve been if I’d gone e/w anyway) places at 20/1. They might well be attractively handicapped, now. Andrew Mount’s put Rupert Boy up e/w, if somewhat tentatively on gg.co.uk…his version of the angle is Frozen Power’s Wolverhampton record 1m+ since start 2015 of 16 runs 7 wins +33 points.
      Paul

      1. Hi Paul

        Yes I have Frozen Power’s optimum trips 1M 1/2F to 1M 11/2F at Wolves 15 runs 7 wins 9 places 46.67% win SR, 60.00% place SR hopefully Rupert can add to these figs later

        Cheers
        Steve

    2. Archipenko

      The best angle in I can see for Archipenko progeny is combining all AW tracks over 1M 2F to 1M 2 1/2F thiis would have produced the below figs….

      43 runs, 13 wins, 19 places – 30.23% win SR, 44.19% place SR
      +53.15 SP +77.72% Betfair SP

      2014 – 11 bets, 4 wins, 5 places – 36.36% win SR, 45.45% place SR
      2015 – 17 runs, 7 wins, 9 places – 41.18% win SR, 52.94% place SR
      2016 – 14 runs, 2 wins, 5 places – 14.29% win SR, 35.71% place SR
      2017 – 1 run, 0 wins, 0 place

      The longest losing run was 10, longest winning run was 3, Of the winners 11 were 4.50 or shorter the other 2 winners were 34.00 & 26.00. All years have been profitable last year helped by the 34.0 winning

      Hope this helps

      Cheers
      Steve

  6. I’d not start anticipating an explosive return to form for the Bowens just yet

    Two winners in the last two days but they both really were chucked in

    Today’s winner made incredibly hard work of beating the Kerry Lee horse to which he was 33lbs better in at the weights

    And yesterday’s Diva horse had a massive class edge in the form book and was the only realistic winner on evident ability

    1. Hmm, it’s not so much anticipating an explosive return in the sense of ‘back all of bowens’ but more reassuring as to knowing the reasons for what seemed a cold spell, and that the trainer is confident they are all ‘back in form, going well at home’ etc. If they still had the cough/issues, he would have said I suspect. Those two were clearly expected to go well,but if they were ill/had coughs, I should think they would have struggled still. We shall see, time will tell. Moving forward I just think his form isn’t a reason to be put off as such in next few weeks, whereas we may have been before.

      1. yep, hard to interpret two winners and i guess they would’ve been turned over if the stable was truly in a bad way

        still tempers my enthusiasm I must admit

  7. Morning Josh/All

    Just two races for me to concentrate on today and the two i have in each race are MISTER KIT CAIUS MARCIUS 2.25 Musselburgh and ALTIEPIX UGOLIN DE BEAUMONT 3.20 Chepstow.
    Good luck with all your tipping/betting matters today.

    1. Morning Stewart, good luck! Hopefully you are right about Altiepix, and if you are wrong, I am right about Dr Robbin! Can see case for Ugolin- unexposed, so no shock winner- but is very inexperienced over fences and this is a deep race, step up in trip also. Those two things put me off, but given the ‘could be anything’ profile, I wont fall off my seat if he wins! Gl

  8. i like SIGN OF THE KODIAC, 2.35 KP and ROBINSFIRTH, 2.10 Chp today. Also BRINY ISLAND, 1.00 LP.

    Good luck.

  9. Nothing stands out on my ratings today. Altiepix interests me most of all the horses mentioned. Form 213 after a break. Kerry Lee 2-6 using tongue tie first time. Only negative his 4 wins have all been RH. Good Luck everyone .
    Simon

  10. 3.20 Chepstow……very surprised at the price of Brownville in this race (10/1), was marked as 7/2 last night but a drifter doesn’t usually bother me. So I have backed it with a couple of savers on Altiepix & Allchilledout but nothing else comes at me to say it will beat one of these three horses.

    1.20 Landmarque looks good and an EW bet on 3.10 Annie Salts will be my main bets today

    1. Good luck Norman, yep Brownville is getting to a silly price, I thought 4s/5s only OK, given the oppo/i think he needs to pull out a tad more. but he is fit, stays, ground no problem, trainer in form, jumps fine, travels, usually, and he is a TTP ratings pointer horse- at 10s, certainly interesting. The drift may just be down to support for others.
      Landmarque is interesting, won for TTP LTO 14/1 over hurdles, interesting if can translate that form back to fences- his one go to date not brilliant but unexposed and if he jumps well, will get a run for your money for sure. Some ok racing this afternoon, hopefully a winner or two somewhere! GL

  11. Good luck to all today

    I’ll be going bold and ignoring the market today in the 3.20.

    Wilton Milan 18/1 is weighted to win and his best performances have come in the mud. Skelton is 5/20, 10 places with first time blinkers. Encouraging run under unsuitable conditions last month

    Castarnie 16/1 has to prove he can do what he’s done at Exeter round here. A good hurdles run round Plumpton suggests he can. Went in the tracker for last race where he was unfortunate to take a bad stumble round the home turn. Hold-up type so strong pace will suit

    Savers on Kerry’s horse and Dr Robin, but these two are the pick at the prices for me

  12. Ended up sticking a small e/w on Paddy The Oscar in the 3.20 chepstow,oldest horse in the race & drifting in price but seems to have conditions suit, hopefully will get a run for my few quid(PP paying 4 places in this)
    @ josh,will you be looking at the big grade B hurdle at Leopardstown on sunday?,(think you were a little unlucky last year),had a quick look,Heartbreak City stands out on form but priced up @ 5/2,After Rain(12/1) who was well fancied last year but hated the heavy going came up well in the stats,along with Tudor City(25/1),prob best to wait until sunday with a lot of firms paying a extra place

    1. Hi Robbie..hmm that doesn’t ring a bell but if it was a quiet Saturday (likely for me, cant work out whether to dive into Peter Marsh, but nothing else tipping wise takes fancy, and other two meetings may be off) I can only think I had a look at some trends/stats- I woudn’t have attacked a handicap hurdle cold! Maybe I will have a look.

  13. Good Afternoon Josh/All …. i think the 3.20 has been well covered , i did try to back Court Frontier last night and managed to get .10p matched @ 29 on betfair ! …. Price has collapsed now , so i wasnt alone it seems ..
    So moving on …. Bells on Sunday in the 2.45 … 7/1 (missed the 10s ) put a line through last run … back in among the “girls” and conditions that suit ….. i think its worth an interest ..

    Good Luck

    1. Good luck Joner, yep Court Frontier lightly raced enough for a chaser, and 5th start for trainer. 20s was around for an age across highstreet bookies I think, I did take some note when his price plummeted. Interesting. Clearly likes the mud and stayed well enough over hurdles in Ireland. Not idea what happened LTO, poor run,and I dont want to blame the ground I don’t think. The break suggests an issue but the trainer can ready them. Does need to prove he can go this way round and for me has a bit to prove over fences- but he was a bit price. Looks like the money is down so will watch with interest as he looms up approaching the last few!

    2. Top picking that, well done. All makes sense after money comes and they win like that haha, well done for spotting him, even if you did only win a pint/half’s worth of winnings! Connections clearly knew they had a bit in hand, step up has helped, and if you cant take 20s+ on one that PU LTO, suppose you never will. I wasn’t anywhere near him, more work to do!

  14. Afternoon Josh and all

    Just a Top rated TTP and a some systems bet for me today and I’ve had a little bet on Altiepix.

    All-weather anther watching day for me.

    With Josh and someone else talking about the book ‘Always back winners’ I thought I’d dust off my copy as having not read it for awhile. A couple of hours last night some new notes taken and a few new ideas (I always see something new when I reread books). Feel positive again after a rough few weeks for my own picks 🙂

    Good luck all today

    1. indeed. Shame he was PU as will never know, but was in great position/travelling well before whatever affected him did. I do watch them all, so know how well or poorly they are doing 🙂 More onwards than upwards at the moment.

  15. FIXED….3.20 Chepstow

    If that wasn’t fixed I don’t know what is…..from 28/1 last night into 9/2 fav

    pocket talking…..yes…..I backed 2nd, 3rd & 4th earlier and I was robbed !

    1. Well, that win was explainable, Joner was able to predict that when a big price, sadly I wasn’t. Of course plenty makes sense in hindsight. 5th start for trainer, lightly enough raced as a chaser and clearly needs it soft. Ran well two starts ago and ran there, as he had previously, if 3m+ /strong pace, is what was needed.
      PU LTO, could have been anything, jockey maybe felt something, wont blame ground- the 65 day break suggests a problem that they fixed. Same trainer who trains Conais Toi,who is a good yardstick, and you imagine from homework they knew what they had on their hands.
      Suppose if you ignore that PU LTO, he shouldn’t have been put in at 20s. Clearly has loads in hand, or did today, which given his profile wasn’t impossible over this trip.
      Would be nice to write that pre race one day!!

        1. In what sense? It wasn’t fixed and like you on did my knackers on that race also. The only way I can deal with such pain is to try and understand the result and make a case for the winner. Liverpool will lift the mood tomorrow!

  16. Hi Josh/All

    Hmmm, well Altiepix came and looked like the winner, just one of them days i think!!? £3899 to the winner is despicable, when in Ireland they are racing for £6765 for a maiden at Dundalk (first race).

    1. Yep, came with a good run, just seemed to lack finishing kick, maybe a bit of tiredness late on- did hit a couple also, which may have taken it out of him come the end.
      As it happens, they all bumped into one there. The dream is to pick those winners out before the bloody race and when 20s! If you ignore that PU, a perfect case could be make looking through the form. I, like those who priced up maybe, guilty of focusing too much on that big P!

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