Urgh. Tips for 2017 now 2/16,3p, +7.25 points. Thursday’s runners extended that losing run to 13. Brilliant. I can live with Alfie Spinner winning not tipped- I could look at that race again and wouldn’t have backed him cold. His age, 1/19 in handicap chases, career high handicap mark/performance needed and I was put off by K Lees recent form with those returning after a break. She was 0/20,1p since her last winner in March with those returning after 60+ days. By her own admission they had been needing the run this season, but maybe his win is a sign that things are back to normal- fitness was never usually an issue with their runners. Unlike Straidnahanna, One For Arthur, and that Ayr winner, I won’t beat myself up on not finding him.
My annoyance is threefold. Firstly the selections didn’t really run a race. Second I didn’t given Cyclop enough consideration the evening before and Edmund highlighted how the flat track may help- I didn’t even consider that factor which was poor- but for falling, he was a dead cert to be top 3 I think, and suspect he would have gone very close. And thirdly, and not for the first time this season or last, I haven’t given myself any room to back a micro system qualifier. The Kerry Lee angle is up there with the Tom George one,and the Venetia one, as being proven. I didn’t have a penny on, having had enough exposure on my ‘tips’. The alternative was to just tip 1 horse, and also back the system selection.
But, it sounds like some of you backed him so well done. And, he also won for the new Trainer/Jockey Combo research. If that is a sign of things to come then happy days. My enthusiasm for researching trainer angles will always remain, some will be poor (handicap hurdle/chase portfolio) , some will work very well ( Lee/George/Venetia) and occasionally I will have a decent idea (TTP Ratings Pointers- well, so far so good albeit up and down last 2 weeks, but that’s how it goes)
I haven’t started doubting myself in 3m+ chases yet, but that time may not be far away. I am just not consistent enough. And keep making the same mistakes. This game is mostly in the mind. And if I don’t sound like a broken record, I am not far from doing so. Blogging is a tough place when you tip shit a lot of the time- well it is if you think of yourself as being quite good, combined with a conscience that others may be spending their hard earned on your ‘advice’. But it could be worse. We are in profit for the year. 7 more bullets to fire to try and build them up.
(and no need to comment on the back of the above, if you were tempted! My chin is up, and I will work through my issues. In general you are a supporting bunch albeit soon enough I may be the only one backing my tips! Your energy is best spent on tipping us all some winners, you are rather good at that… 🙂 )
On we march..
Dr Robin – 1 point win – 9/1 (Bet365/BV) PU
(something went amiss there it seems, sadly. hopefully not too bad. Albeit that winner, ‘smashed in’, wasn’t being beaten in truth. Unexposed enough,clearly they fixed whatever caused the PU LTO, soft ground ideal. Well done if you found him at a price)
Yep I can’t let this one go off at 9/1, 8/1 without any support. He is unexposed, the yard looks to be coming back to life, they do well here, he has been running ok and he gets a first time visor – which from memory Bowen has used a few times on chasers to good effect. (Al Co sticks in the memory,think he had first time visor when he won for the blog at Aintree last may-albeit that is a small sample! I can remember the winners)
Bowen revealed the yard had been suffering from a cough in recent weeks and used that as an excuse for a few of his running below par, indeed at the start of this week he was 0/24 in the previous month. Although his two recent winners were expected to go well, if they were ill still, they wouldn’t have won for me. So, while that is not a reason to suddenly go ‘back all of Bowen’s’, whereas at the start of the week I may have been put off with his,based on trainer form, there really is no reason for that now.
It is possible this one was suffering from that cough LTO and was unable to finish. It is possible he just found the ground a bit too testing, or he did just bump into an unexposed one. Either way, at 9/1, given his unexposed profile, the headgear change,also the course form,the trainer being in better form,his/TJC stats at the track (TTP selection also) I am happy to have a go.
It is possible there is a fair bit of pace on also, that he can just track and with any luck pick up the pieces.
Of the rest..
Well I have backed the Lee horse, (Altiepix) system qualifier below (and also quals for the new ‘test’, +9 points after day 1) who was widely available at 15/2,8/1 last night- I hope any micro systems backers got on at that price. He looks interesting and races prominently. Lee has a very good record with horses first time up from other yards and following Alfie it would be dangerous to assume they are not fit now. I am not sure too many trainers will improve one from Gordon Elliot, but it will be interesting to see how he goes. He isn’t at a ‘tipping’ price now, but hopefully one of these two can win, for my bank balance if nothing else.
What other dangers? Well the Tizzard horse is probably a worthy fav- he won well, digging in and staying on dourly LTO. He got in a battle there and that run was only 12 days ago. He also had 10-7 on his back, and had 11-5 here, 12lb more. That may make no difference at all – but in the context of a tough race LTO, bigger field, it may. A question anyway. Clearly he is unexposed and progressive, and will be no shock winner. But he si 4/1, which is probably about right. If over those exertions LTO, he won’t be far away. (top rated HRB and Geegeez Speed, for info)
Brownville is interesting. NTD is in form and he is consistent. But he does need more you feel than on recent runs. He is open to attack from something with more in hand. That consistency may get him a long way in this but 5s is ok, without being overly generous to my eyes.
The final one I will mention is Loughalder, the old warrior. At 28/1 I would want to see some market support,which is usually important for this yard, not much over 16/1 SP runs a race- well with handicap chasers, 1/88,7 p those going off 22/1+, 8/202,31p 14/1-40/1 SP. So, they are hard to find. In any case he looks a bit out of sorts. He has bounced back around here before but is from a high enough mark now and this is deeper than his most recent wins- those near the top of the market, the front 4, do look most interesting and I would be surprised if one of them didn’t take this given their profiles. He won’t get an easy lead either, which can help him. He would be the monster price clanger, but at aged 11, it is hard to have much confidence at the moment.
I would like to think I have mentioned the winner in that lot somewhere. I can’t fancy the rest for one reason or another, either based on recent form, or their profiles etc.
PACE- well a few can get on with it so it will be interesting how it goes. The fav and Lees can be up there. Paddy The Oscar likes to lead, Loughalder can race up there also. Bowen’s will just track the pace hopefully and should be in the right spot with any luck.
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.20 Chep- Altiepix 3rd 8/1
TJCs – New, Live Test
(remember you can find these HERE>>>)
3.20 Chep- Altiepix (#9) (12/1<) 3rd 8/1
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– Live Test
1.20 Muss- Landmarque- UP
3.30 Muss- Moscow Calling- UP
That will be all for today. I could look at the AW stats etc, but I can’t be bothered in truth! I just can’t get excited about AW racing. No doubt this will be the day the TTP stats highlight a bucket load of winners. Gerry has highlighted one of them below for interest. Dow’s handicappers can be backed blind at Wolvs for decent profits. I need to start turning my attention to tomorrow, start planning Cheltenham/the approach, and work out what to do for the summer.
NOTE: I will post up a Guest Blog post later on this morning, from a Mr Darran Pearce (some may recognise the name from ATR- makes the odd appearance) He is a Hunter Chase/PtP expert and you will enjoy the read. More on that later on.
Have a great day and good luck with any bets,