Both the front two clearly have a bright future, bringing together two of the strongest chase (novice hncp chase) formlines of recent weeks, that of Uttoxeter, and Ascot. I don’t think there is much between those two on that evidence- Fehily was able to dictate, which probably won it for him in the end, Russell settling his further back and maybe just having too much to do. Sticky ground which can be hard to make up ground in. He ran with credit. Anyone taking under 3s ish on him (which was probably fair) needs to have a word 🙂
Get Involved- as yet doesn’t know how to jump it seems. Hoped slower ground/longer trip/slower pace may help with that. No excuse, had plenty of space around him and clear air in front. I would resort to an easier track with him/easier fences- not sure what Dickin’s main hunting grounds are really, that was one of them, over fences at least.
Little Jon- great run, his jumping can be iffy but ok here. I still can’t work out if he sees out 3m properly or not- always think there will be stronger stayers than him over that trip, in a decent run race. Strong run 2m4f/5f may be best but interesting to watch him NTO
Monbeg Gold- what a monkey- swinging away, sulked up straight, rallied. Not sure what they try with him next, issues seem to be mental. I would try leading/making all with him – remember Achimoto (or whatever his name) who won for McPherson making all at Chepstow at a monster price (Malcolm still spending those winnings!) that helped him – they should try that. It may help him in a race if he never sees another horse, and tries to bully from the front. Blinkers worked to an extent I think.
Rathlin Rose – probably entered a lot of notebooks. Loomed up menacingly – a TTP stats selection in that race, I didn’t back him, and was starting to worry! In the end, fitness got to him I think and his jumping started to go. But, the way he travelled into that, in what was a decent race for me, suggests he has a fair bit in hand and the Pipes will be excited. He has wins in him. Very good run given his time off. Hopefully no issues post race and he doesn’t ‘bounce’ NTO. Needs to hack up once/twice to be considered for Festival type handicaps I think. One to watch.
None. I am going to leave it. The race is packed full of ‘unexposed’ types (at least 8) and it may be one to watch with the future in mind. The one at the top seems short to my eye but is clearly expected to go well and hasn’t had many goes over fences, likewise the second fav has a decent chance at 11/2. I suppose Monbeg Gold was the interesting one, based on that Fontwell run, and he is unexposed, 8/1. But he really needs the blinkers to work and Jonjo is 3/33 over fences here, last 5 years. (0/25,1p all runners here last year) Knowing my luck he will travel like a dream and pull away over the last couple! Albeit he didn’t respond to cheekpieces LTO,and found little. It does feel like a race to leave, we shall see.
(Update: Well having looked at that fav properly, i can see why he was put in at a short price… given how well that Ascot form has worked out. To my eye he does need to prove he stays? Of course he could have needed the run at Chepstow and at Ascot just bumped into 3 better horses,rather than not getting home. But he has had 60 days off and 9/4 is skinny enough now, as was 11/4 i thought. If you got 4s/5s then well done, appears that may have been around for a brief time… My TTP stats have a quiet day ahead, no ‘ratings pointers’- but the stats pack does throw up three in this race, the two Pipe horses, and the Dickin Horse, Get Involved- I have just had 5EW on him at 16s having pondered- as he is lightly raced, is a CD winner over hurdles, and will appreciate this step up in trip. He may well need another run, and the market will guide. I think getting the top two beat could be tough here, but there could be one or two places to play for, and you never know. Far from confident and more for a muggy interest, but it will be interesting to see how he goes. Interesting they come here, to a track they do well with handicap chasers, rather than sending him somewhere else maybe.)
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST
3.45 MR – Isaac Bell- UP
2.55 Newb- Herbert Park (11/1< best ) UP 25/1
Jan Trainer Pointers
3.05 Ling -Ascot Day (x2 angles) 14,30 G1,H3 WON 7/4>Evens
6.20 Kemp- Gleaming Girl 14,30 H1
STATS/ANGLE OF INTEREST
4.05 Lingfield- City of Angkor Wat – 14/1 –
UP- best leaving the AW to others I think! You seem to have that well covered.
‘could’ be an interesting EW play. Albeit I am venturing into the AW so brace yourselves. Small money! It may be best to explain this with an image.
Any users of Geegeez Gold (superb piece of kit, no need for the racing post, ditch that, and take a £1 trial for 30 days HERE>> 🙂 ) can use the ‘instant expert’ tab to get a feel for how competitive or uncompetitive a race ‘could’ be. Surprise Vendor was a clear stand out yesterday, and the winner of the last at Plumpton the day before, at 10/1, was also a clear stand out (i missed that one sadly) So, maybe I will dabble by highlighting the odd horse that really jumps out- in being proven in conditions, and winning regularly enough, when everything else has it to prove. We want lots of Amber and Green for the selection, lots of Red for everything else.
It is a starting point, and patience is key. A picture may help…
Hopefully you can see that. That is the ‘win tab’ and City of Angkor Wat stands out somewhat. To the right you can see he is 11lb below his last winning mark.
But, you sometimes want a bit more than that. I find it interesting that he steps back up to 7f here- that last run over 6f was interesting as he somewhat stayed on I think, having been outpaced at one stage. There are also a couple of front runners in here. He has won over 8f and maybe as he gets older, 6f is a bit sharp these days. His last run over 7f was in June 2015 I think, in a C4, off 77.
He is also 4/9,6p in AW handicaps when returning within 7 days of his last start. He is 5/14,9p in AW handicaps Jan-March.
At 14/1 I am going to have an EW play. This exact same approach as above, waiting for that clear ‘stand out horse’ would have/has highlighted two winners at 10/1 and 6/1, from the only two I have noticed this week. In general you want a race full pf exposed types, no unexposed horses who may not have shown their best as yet. Time will tell!
Clearly, this one will now be tailed off. But, you get the idea, and you can see the method to my madness.
That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets. Josh
p.s I do owe you all a research piece really, (for those who like such things) so I will spend some of today looking at some trainer/jockey combos…and I really do need to update results again…