FREE DAILY POST: 12/01/17 (complete)

TIPS/preview + other…

Well some of you can take a bow,and feel rightly aggrieved at the racing gods not being on your side. There have been some monster price horses run with credit recently. Edmund has put up a 3rd (50/1) and a 2nd (33s?>20s) in recent days and on Wednesday a few of you homed in on the Flook hunter chasers- one losing out by not very far at 28/1. Let’s be blunt. Watching those not win,when going that close, is bloody painful. I would rather them be a few lengths back in 2nd or 3rd,accepting your fate, or tailed off, than lose by 1/2 length or less! Steve’s AW Sires picked out a monster placed horse at Newcastle also, 66s available, maybe 80s in places? Nice EW returns for some of you hopefully. Nick chipped in with a 7/1 winner as well, he is getting into a habit of doing that!

Easy game, eh!?

My chase tip may have been scuppered by the ground- someone I know tweeted me thinking there wasn’t much good in that going at Taunton and the way many of them were finishing – tired – may be true. There was a fear it would be ‘tacky’ and I suppose at this time of year you may not get genuine good ground, albeit it was good to firm only a few weeks back. Anyway, moving on. He ran ok, and will pick up a chase here and there, maybe in the summer. I hate this in-between ground, where you are a bit uncertain.

Last January I couldn’t stop picking winners- +90 points worth. And races keep coming up I remember winning – we have had the Veteran’s Chase. I didn’t find the winner this year, but I didn’t either in that Fontwell race where I had Morning Wing. So,they have cancelled each other out. The North Yorkshire National runs today, we had the 16/1 winner of that last year. (predicted pre race he would be tailed off before rattling home- did I back him at 400/1 in running, did I heck. Gulp) And on Saturday we head to Warwick for their staying chase, we had the 25/1 winner of that also last year.

So, we shall see if I can repeat those feats. I will try my best. Sadly Catterick’s race has ‘good’ in the going description, so I don’t hold out any hope fort that one! 🙂 (is it good to soft, is it sticky/holding/actually tiring etc)



2.50 Catt –

Carrigdhoun – 1/2 point EW– 25/1 (Bet365/BV) 20s (general) UP

Harry The Viking – 1 point win – 9/1 (various) UP

Ah, well, the old boys couldn’t do it this time, didn’t have the legs to go with them- didn’t expect Cook to be so aggressive and get an uncontested lead but as soon as he did,combined with the money,some indication they clearly thought he would stay every yard. Great ride by Cook,very good on the front. As it happens ItsTimeForAPint was the EW stab in the race, ran well, must have been tacky enough, given wasn’t outpaced rally- Front three ran good races. Those two old boys owe me nothing now, (Carrig 2×14/1 for TTP,Harry a winning tip,+12 points) and maybe their time has now been, certainly in races like that.  Should have just stuck with the Jan pointers! 


Carrigdoun – well sometimes you look at a price and think it is just silly. 25s just looks big for his chance here and I have gone with the gut. I am going to assume something went amiss the last day in the fog, or more likely the ground was too deep/tacky for him- he has always been best on a decent surface. Any anyway he may not be a class 2 chaser. In the runs before that he was in the form of his life. At Kelso, 2 out, he was upsides Harry The Viking and this slightly shorter trip may get him a bit closer- provided that PU wasn’t something more serious. But you can take a chance at these odds. And he plugged on at Kelso. He usually travels well and is a sound jumper. Him and Harry may be near the front all the way here with any luck. I just thought 25s was too big. If he repeats that Kelso run,or even the one before that at Carlisle, he out-runs these odds,hopefully placing at worse.

I have long said I would always have 1 point on the win side of any bet, but I appear to have changed that for now! There are younger legs in here, and Harry is a stronger stayer, over further, but hopefully they are close. They may both get done by Doing Fine- I suspect that could possibly happen, but he is 7/2,4/1 and that is just too short for me in a race with this many runners, for a hold up type, who does seem to like placing recently.

Harry The Viking- well, what has he done wrong? He hacked up the last day, he could have gone around again. I don’t know if they found a niggle with him that they fixed, but his last two runs have been his best for an eternity. 9s seems more than fair. He doesn’t have to lead but can hopefully sit comfortably near the front end. He jumps, gallops and stays really well. You can’t say that about many in here, plenty have to do something different. That last win was impressive and at what is 9/1, I thought that was generous enough.


Morning update…

Well Carrigdhoun may have lost a leg overnight! I can’t believe he is 28s, and did want to see some support into 14s maybe. That could just be a sign of money for a lot of the others. We shall see. If he is in s rhythm early near the front end we will get a good spin,at least until the final couple of furlongs. Harry TV is on the walk also. Hmm. (bracing myself now!) This is a horse who has gone close in C2s/G3s over marathon trips. I am quite excited about seeing if he can back up that last win. I don’t think the 7lb rise may stop him, more if younger legs may out-pace him later on.

And who could they be…

Anyway, the dangers…

Well Doing Fine is the obvious one. Rarely do I back the obvious one,mainly as they are short enough, and when I do back the obvious one they tend to run shockers, with the odd exception. He is unexposed enough, stays, likes good ground, LH isn’t a problem. He does look solid enough, 9/2 getting to an OK price I suppose now. That last run was decent,no excuses to my eye- either out-stayed or out-battled in the dying yards,or out-classed. Not sure really. But a few behind him have run with credit since. He is a hold up horse- which isn’t a problem around here if they go a good pace- albeit trying to catch proven stayers,who don’t make mistakes, is tough,esp on good as they may not stop. So, he may have to pick up speed at some point and arguably Rocky Creek beat him the last day by having track position/first run. He will need to trap over the last couple of fences I imagine. We shall see if I have called that right. Not a shock winner and not too much I can say to put you off. If you like him, at 9/2,have a go. I have left him.

Next in… Gonalston Cloud… money is coming and I can see why… I may have convinced myself to throw £5 at him here this morning- mainly because he is a proven stayer on good ground and actually looks like the further the better for him- I was put off from tipping him as I wasn’t sure as to the strength of the form of that last race, but he won, and he is still unexposed under rules, despite his age. Wedge stays on, and he likes the track. I can fully understand why people have backed him at 10s>8s. Maybe I will regret not going 1/2 on him and Carrig. We shall see.  He will be staying on near the end here for sure, assuming no accidents.

Straidnahanna- well again maybe I can see the case for backing at 10s yesterday. He is being well backed by all accounts. I don’t know. I wasn’t leaping off my seat to back him. He has stayed 25f well enough and is worth a go at this trip, but it is an extra 5f or so and is simply an unknown. He also has the habit of making 1 or 2 blunders in a round, and can make a serious one as he did the last day. His best form on soft also, and it could be it all happens half a stride too quickly,esp if having to quicken- and that may affect his jumping. Clearly if he jumps and if he stays, he could go close. He is a C3 chaser who likes the track. He can race prominently/lead,but I hope they rein him back and ride him to stay – in sense that will give my two an easier time on the front! Stamina is an unknown I suppose,and can see why some would roll the dice.

BallyBen- i am not sure if he looks like a grinder over this trip- I think he got outstayed the last day,just,or bumped into one with more in hand. His mark may mean nothing if he improves for this distance- a possibility, but he does need to improve for it from this mark. I have a stamina niggle and think there are better horses in here. Happy to leave at a single figure price. Again, the trip an unknown- I can’t say for sure he won’t stay. And he is ‘young’ compared to plenty in here. If he does stay it may open up a few more doors for him.

Scotswell- well his price has halved over night and money is coming. He stays well and jumps well at his best and has won this race before. I thought he had started to look a bit laboured this season, as if age is catching up with him. But he has nothing on his back here and will give it a good go. I would have liked to have seen more LTO, but maybe that trip is just too short these days. He gets his conditions. I preferred the more in form horse in Harry,and I think he is a stronger stayer. He can make errors as well but could have some fun on the front end. Interesting. Maybe this has been a cunning plan. I do wonder if C4 is more his level these days though.

BallyCulla- I have stamina questions/doubts, he can be tricky and his jumping can let him down- in this big field he will be asked plenty of questions. He has wins in him but I would be slightly surprised if he took this. Alto De mottes was second in this last year, but looks like he prefers mud and he was very poor the last day, even if this was to set him up for this. I wonder, aged 6, whether his effort in this last year has bottomed him out- much like the Scottish National did for Godsmejudge,who has never been the same horse since. Hopefully not but I would like to see more. Jac The Legend likes placing, but does stay. I wonder if he is good enough for this and can make the odd error also,esp in a big field. That PU LTO is a concern also.

Federici is interesting – he stays, albeit is now 0/5,1p going LH over fences, 0/8,1p in career. Second run for McCain and he went OK lto. It is a big ask to carry a weight like this, in a race like this- you need to have plenty in hand/or just be a class above I think. I am not sure if either applies. But he stays, so that is a plus.

The final one I will mention,which is nearly the lot I suppose, is ItsTimeForAPint- he has a muddy slog in him somewhere, at some point. Maybe Haydock. I think he needs it soft/heavy to be at his best and this ground is against him. Harry The Viking thumped him when he beat him,and 2 out, both selections were way ahead in that Kelso race. He plods and he stays. But this could happen all a bit too quickly I think. A plodder to keep an eye on when Heavy though. If I have that right.

I can’t have the other three that remain, for one reason or another. Quite something if one of those wins!

PACE- well, on a going day, Harry The Viking and Carrigdhoun trap along near the front. They don’t have to lead (ie they don’t sulk) and may well be they sit behind Scotswell, hopefully passing him down the back straight on the final circuit. Newton Thistle can lead but I am not sure is good/quick enough to do so against those. He is moody as well. So is Fill The Power who again I can’t see getting an easy lead and with any luck will drop off and sulk early enough. His rider will earn his fee. I don’t think anything else will pester them,if I have that right. Giving 3 proven stayers/good jumpers, an easy enough time on the front end, whatever their age, will ask questions of the rest for me.

Time will tell.

It looks bloody competitive and should be a great race to watch! There is something less stressful about only having 2 points on a race, rather than 4/5!

Good Luck.




Tom George Chasers (any odds)

12.45 Leic- Baraza WON 4/1 >5/2


Handicap Chase/Hurdle Portfolio – LIVE TEST

3.10 Leic- Storming Strumpet


Jan Trainers (pointers)

2.00 New – Gorokai UP

4.30 New- Horstead Keynes

2.50 Catt- Fill The Power UP/Straidnahanna WON 10/1>11/2 (25p R4) 7.5/1



That will be all for today.


Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

43 Responses

  1. Un Prophete looks a nice price at 3/1 tomorrow in the 1.05, same race conditions as LTO where it was beaten 1.5L by Goal (subsequent winner) and was 15L clear of Bobble Boru who also won today. Up 6 pounds when you factor in Jockey change (Deutsch surely worth a few lb?) but should have the measure of this for Venetia (2 runners 2 winners today)

    1. TTP users, that’s me, will be hoping so! Top rated HRB,albeit nowhere on geegeez speed. 3s seems ok given that and your good case for him. Any supporters should get a good run for their money anyway. GL

  2. Could be a good for Paddy,2 chasers for Tom George(happy days) and one for O Brien.Fergal not taking all before him now,had to happen at some stage,but seems to do well with stable changers,so wouldn’t discount Bells and Banjos 2.10 at 10/1

  3. Jock Du Jour

    Todays Jockey is Callum Shepherd

    7.30 Chelmsford Medicean Queen 1pt win 11/1

    The Logic
    Callum is 15% and +20.83 4yo+
    His AW record in this sphere for Phil Mcentee is 7/17+47.08
    Trainer has had winners so more hopefull

    Nathan Evans was close in reckoning but having 3 for Easterby at Newcastle made it hard to choose which one-Bowson Fred 5pm at Newcastle maybe at 8/1
    But will stick with Medicean Queen

    1. That’s a hell of a shout, Martin, considering he’s rated a full 22 lbs worse than Gracious John and a minimum 9 lbs off the rest of the field (and is even giving weight to that filly). You have me intrigued, though, and I’ll watch the market with interest. Good luck,

      1. Lol…brilliant Martin. I just had a couple of quid place only at 5/1. Hope you had a pile on, mate.

  4. Can’t see your 12 year olds being competitive enough in the race tomorrow Josh. Neither have shown themselves to be able to win off their current marks at least for a number of years, and got to think one of the younger generation will win this one. Could pick any one from Ballyben, Straidnahanna and Jac the Legend (in that order) and thats not even including the favourite. I think this race is ultra competitive but got to think that there are at least 1-2 young improvers in the race. I’ve backed Ballyben and Jac the Legend at the prices but wish you all the best.

    1. It’s all a game of opinions JV. You may be right but generally in a race like that it pays to side with proven stamina. I am far from convinced BallyBen or Straid will stay that trip. Jac will but not convinced he is good enough and that last PU a concern. Mark irrelevant for Harry if you take view he looks a diff horse. Would have won with 10lb+ more on back the last day for me. Marks mean sod all over this trip imo. But that is my approach. You stay. Or you don’t. Rarely a hiding place. But I am wrong 8 times out of 10 roughly,well sometimes 9, and I may well be again! 🙂 GL.

      1. As it sounds like you still like HtV, Josh, I’ve just had a little bit of 18.0 matched on Betfair. Seems an incredible price (5s on the oddschecker tissue).

      1. If only I got it right!! I mentioned the winner but didn’t back it. Looks as though Ballyben didn’t stay as you called out and Jac the Legend was never remotely close enough – looks like he needs really deep ground to slow the others down.

        1. Ha, ah yes. Was good price last night, this mornings 6s/7s in places- well, you got it right that I had got it wrong,so that’s something! Yep, too many young legs in there for those two- called them all ok bar the winner- well, that wasn’t a shock, shame I couldn’t get myself to that place at 10s last night- having too old stagers onside maybe a bit foolish, but then knowing me i would have gone with Gonalston for another 2nd! I didn’t expect Straid to get such an easy lead, but shows he had the pace to do it – younger legs I suppose- when able to dictate ,jumped well with nothing in front of him also. Moving on.

  5. I really like the look of Storming Strumpet in the 15:10 at Leicester. She ran ok LTO when I tipped her just missing out on a place. Its good to see her back over fences. Whilst the last time in a chase she did poorly I would put that down to the fact it was her re-appearance and the ground. If you look at her last start last season she ran pretty well in a Listed Mares Chase which has worked out incredibly well. (winner has won an open listed chase off 18lbs higher, 2nd and 7th have won agian. She is now 11lbs lower and running in a class 5. It also coincides with Paddy Brennan returning on board. Tom George is 3/4 here over the last 12 months. The only slight concern is the big weight however I really expect her to win comfortably here.

    In the North Yorkshire National barring an error I am struggling to find a reason why Doing Fine isnt going to win this. He looked to have plenty in hand LTO and I thought was an unlucky loser. This looks much easier and I dont think the 4lb rise will be a problem. Both Morney Wing and Loose Chips have franked the form. I dont think being held up will be too much an issue (certainly less than at Sandown-GG stats actually favour those held up over course and distance, although its a small sample size)

    The last one I want to be is Wilberdragon in the 14:10 Leicester given the form of his last race looks to be working out well with the 2nd winning twice and going close on his 3rd run off 10 lbs higher and the winner going close off 10lbs higher (winner of that race went on to win to win a hot looking race on Boxing Day). Trainer’s last 3 runners have finished 132 so stable is returning to form after a bit of a lull.

  6. Hi Josh / All

    A better day for the stallions with a winner a big price 3rd & 9th and a NR and 4 races to look at tomorrow……

    Running total £924.19

    Newcastle 2.00 – September Issue 4.5 Best Odds with 6 books incl Hills/Lads
    Dutch Art, 5F, Newcastle, 4 runs, 2 wins, 3 places 50% win SR, 75% place SR
    (2 different winners)
    Staking £18.48 – 2% of £924.19

    Newcastle 3.00 – Royal Flag 11.0 Best Odds across the board
    New Approach, 2M 1/2, Newc, 3 runs, 2 wins, 3 pl 66.67% win SR 100% pl SR
    I’ve decided to include this sire despite the few runs as 3 different horses have the above figs and the field sizes where 8, 20 & 20 showing the sires effectiveness over this C & D.
    Staking £18.12 – 2% of £905.71 (again based on worse case scenario that 1st selection loses)

    Newcastle 5.00 – Dougan 13.0 Best odds BetBright 12.0 in 7 other books
    Dutch Art, 5F, Newcastle, 4 runs, 2 wins, 3 places 50% win SR, 75% place SR
    Staking £17.76 – 2% of £887.59 (Sires SR will have changed after 2.00pm race)

    Chelmsford 8.30 – Pleadings 8.0 Best Odds 10 books incl Lads/Coral
    Street Cry, 6F, Chelm, 6 runs, 3 wins, 4 places 50% win SR 66.67% place SR
    Staking £17.40 – 2% of 869.83.

    Others to Note but not in “Super” list (Yet)

    3.30 Newcastle – Winterlude 10.0 Bet365
    Street Cry, 1M 4F, Newc, 9 runs, 3 wins, 4 places 33.33% win SR,
    Winterlude has already won off this mark at Wolves over this trip so surface is fine and along with the sire stats which are solid makes it interesting.

    4.30 Newcastle – Al Khan 26.0 generally available
    Elnadim, 7F, Newcastle, 2 runs 2 wins 2 places
    2 different horses although one of them was the selection today

    7.30 Chelmsford – Rail Dancer 8.0 best odds with 8 books
    Rail Link, 2M Chelmsford, 1 run 1 win 1 place
    The selection is stepped up markedly in trip today and therefore makes it interesting.

    Hopefully a winner or 3 amongst that lot…..

    Good luck with all your selections I’ll be cheering on Old Harry around 2.57pm 🙂


  7. I do think you’re right about Carrigdhoun, Josh, as he must be placed, assuming he acts on the track. Easy to excuse last run and is in prime form this season, slightly reinvented as an extreme stayer – but this trip may be better than 4m – and he will give his all, now 28/1
    The winner might be Federici who has won over 28f, good, on a sharp track last season, joined McCain prior to his last run (no chance) and has unlimited stamina.

  8. hi all only started on here back end of december and have profitably been playing around with the ratings pointers and some of the others to very small stakes but am still over 70pts up after placing todays bets.
    i have been doing a system for a number of years but due to personal circumstances i just don’t have the time to do the work involved to keep it up to date so have tweaked it to give a daily”best bet” which i will post but please note this is untested and so far is only just breaking even, i do on occasion get some good info which i will be happy to share.
    good luck to you all and here’s to a profitable 2017.
    todays “best bet” Leic. 1-35 rock of leon 2-1 3pt win

    1. Great to hear Martin, 70 points not bad return in matter of weeks! Staking amount doesn’t matter,having fun (which is linked to not losing money,in a worse case scenario) is what it is all about, and profits/bigger profits will come in time. Plenty of months ahead to build up betting banks/staking amounts etc. No rush. Patience can be rewarded.

      All horse related comments welcome on these pages.

      Question about staking – on the whole I am a 1 point punter,and always intrigues me when people bet 3-5 points on a horse – is there any method to that staking amount? or gut instinct say?

  9. Races like the 2:50 I find are best left alone. However since it has received so much attention I would like to add Scotswell to the list!
    A course winner that goes well on good ground 3lb lower than when just beaten over this distance last May. Has back class, won under today’s jockey, stable in decent nick and the money is starting to come.

    1. No for me Gary! I love them. cant get enough. And indeed 3m+ chases the only races I ‘tip’ in over jumps. The record so far is OK, if not a bit of a bumpy ride at times. Yep can see the case for the old boy, hopefully you may have got a bigger price than he is now- well supported. I can see him leading for a time, and you will get an exciting run for your money. I wonder if just a bit too much speed has gone out of his legs these days,doesn’t seem to be able to get away on front like he used to, but maybe he will today.

        1. Ah yes, so he does. Softer the better also. He shouldn’t be doing much here today. Potter around the back hopefully!

  10. I understand that the Gary Moore runners today are not strongly fancied. Famous last words? Gay Kelleway has also been out of form. However they have a fancied runner today, albeit not much of a price. September Issue 2.00 NC. We shall see.

    Apart from Doc Sportello who I put up earlier I quite like Indian Voyage, 1.50 Cat.

    I see in the Tip race, 2.50, Fill The Power meets the Sue Smith January criteria I think?

    Good luck.

  11. 2.50 Catterick

    at BF prices I have gone for Raktiman, Federici & Alto Des Mottes….each trainer has good figures for Catterick Hunt Handicaps in general….also backed Straidnahanna last night so 4 against the favourite (who has the best chance but not a big price)

    and talking of prices, today the prices offered on Oddschecker by Corals….just never matched when I went for the Corals price….all had been dropped when the actual bet appeared…are they worried my bets are going to clean them out, I think not !

  12. Hi Josh and team. It seems to me that Straidnahanna is well worth a look in the 2.50 at Catterick as the yard excel with staying types and, although a bit disappointing last time, there may be more to come over todays trip. Just to make more appeal is the fact that you have flagged up the stable in the January trainers data.

    1. Hi Tom, Good luck, I certainly wont be putting you off him if you like him, and 8s in places still I think, 10s/12 last night. He is the ‘one’ in the race who is unproven over the trip who may well do best over it,and improve on what he has done to date. Agree about the trainer angle, with this type of horse, won race last year, yard in form, and the Jan track pointers. Maybe I have over-complicated things!! I do worry about this ground/his jumping,but maybe they are unfounded. When he beat Jac The Legend here over 25f that was a gutsy, staying on, performance, and can see why on that he is worth a go at this trip. We will find out in a couple of hours if he stays! I wont fall of my seat if he wins, just curse not taking a double fig price on him haha GL

    1. Oh, I will take the applause for the research haha! That Tom George system probably one of the best stand alone trainer micro angles I have researched, and was also a Bonus Qual on TTP stats- Tom George does like a novice handicap chase winner at Leicester! 4s was an ok price. Did it well. They always seem to be able to jump, these young/inexp George chasers. And, rarely found wanting from saddle when paddy on.

      Paid for my Catt tips anyway! Every little helps.

      1. I probably should make a note of that regarding Tom George novice chasers since always wary of those making their chase debuts. Looked well handicapped on that Exeter run.

  13. 3 Jockeys have come back in and said the ground is dead at Catterick after the 1st race over hurdles looks slightly holding, be interesting to see how the chase course fares in the 1.50pm


    1. yep, looks like testing/holding/dead ‘good’ ground! Some will handle it, some really won’t, and you can’t tell by looking at form on ‘good or heavy’ – can mean nothing. But, you will need to stay I think – not ‘getting away’ with it I doubt.

  14. Yes agree Josh, jumping out of dead ground will put a real emphasis on stamina at the front may well be the place to be today

    1. I do hope so! Harry should be fine- well in sense that he has run well in all going types, so can’t judge pre race that he wont handle it. May actually help in blunting Scotswell on the front end a tad. Not sure how Carrig will do, albeit market suggests he is running with two legs bound up today! Coming from behind may be tough, esp if it is ground that is ‘hard to get through’ We shall see,bit of a guessing game pre race. GL

  15. Hi Steve I got 40/1 on Al Khan ew…..and Straidnahanna went in too…
    Took 4s last night wit Baraza… they offset my wild ones somewhat….lol
    Now for Martins Doc Sportello…lol.

    bol all.

  16. WOOOOOOHOOO! Nice one Martin…… pass me the cigars and i’ll open a nice malt, lol…I got 17s

    Cheers mate.

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