Members Club Results
Just a quick results update on the members posts for anyone interested. …
Full Results (exc ratings pointers) up to end of week 14 can be found HERE>>> (skip to bottom for summaries if you wish)
Ratings Pointers results from introduction 9th Dec to 1st Jan can be read HERE>>> (I will update these weekly from now on)
Backing every horse just once ,1 point, since the start has won systematical followers around +90 points in 14 weeks, inc Bonus stats.
Backing the ‘ratings pointers’ qualifiers (inc twice if against both ratings) are on +52 points,after 21 race days live,to 1st Jan. (had a 14/1 winner since then,+ a few losers)
Hopefully they can be replicated in the days/weeks ahead through to the end of the season.
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JANUARY POINTERS
Better late than never I have had a look at a handful of trainers who may do well again this month.
You can flick through those HERE>>>
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TIPS
none. only Lingfield for us jumps fans and that will probably succombe to frost. Nothing of interest there, tipping race wise.
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
JUMPS ANGLES
none.
OTHER
oh…apologies I think with my ‘southwell’ research I have been highlighting the wrong bloody horses… I have ‘southwell sires’ saved,which is separate from the first micro angle in the research piece. Gulp. We haven’t missed any winners yet though…
Southwell USA Micro (14/1<) (TESTING)
12.35 – Kafeel- UP
JAN POINTERS
6.45 Chelm – Doctor Sardonicus – H2,G3 – 2nd 4/1>2/1
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Storm Alert.. well he is definitely worth entering into trackers as despite his age it looks like they are lining something up with him. He is becoming very well handicapped and ran with ‘promise’ here. I knew I wasn’t winning/placing before the off really as he wasn’t backed. I also knew after 1f when he was held up right out the back and ‘mysteriously’ kept wide the whole way round. And I mean very wide. (probably an extra 1/2 mile+)We will blame jockey ‘inexperience’, eh! 🙂 He plugged on and definitely could have been closer- but this run probably added to his fitness,and may see him drop down a few pounds again. At some point this season he will turn up somewhere, maybe Exeter, in a weak handicap hurdle, and will bolt up I suspect, having been smashed in. It is possible he is just very slow now,but, I reckon we may get paid on him at some point. Time will tell.
3.55 Hereford- well we ‘all’ had a mare in that one didn’t we. Let’s move on. Swiftly!
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All Weather TTP Picks
Southwell
12.35 – Call Out Loud UP
2.10- Ralphy Lad – G3
2.40 – Cross Fire – H3 UP
3.40 – Chillililli – G3 – UP
Wolvs
4.00 – Shabeeh- UP
Chelms
5.45 – Loyalty – H1 – UP
6.45 – Bosham- UP
7.45 – Mambos Dancer
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That will be all for Thursday. Enough to flick through/use/ignore as you please I think. Good luck with any bets. Josh
10 Responses
Just saying Nonchalant’s win today. Last day when beaten by Ferryview Place by a neck Nonchalant carried 9-7 Ferryview Place carried 8-10 11pounds worse off today only 5lb worse off and beat the horse pointed out in H1
Cotton Club goes in the 6.15 at Chelmsford on Thursday. 9/1 now and has course form of 311.
Hi Josh / All
2 losers for the “Super Stallions” today although I’m not sure what quite happened with Bollihope travelled like the best horse but for some reason the Jockey couldn’t pull him to the outside to make his run looked like the bit must have gone but Connor Beasley said afterwards the horse hung to his left! finishing a close up 3rd…Holly Doyle got Cold Fusion in a good position but faded tamely into 7th no excuses there….Rock Warbler won well though absolutely no doubts that he stays a mile pulling away all the way to the line, The straight track & tapeta surface at Newcastle is ideal for him more wins no doubt back here…..On to tomorrow and all 3 surfaces in action
“Super Stallions” Running total: £941.12, 0 wins 3 losers
Southwell 2.10 – Port Lairge 10.0 Best Odds Betvic / Bet365 / Betbright
Pastoral Pursuits 5 runs, 3 wins, 4 places 60.00% win SR, 80% place SR
Stake £18.82 – 2% of £941.12
Chelmsford 6.45 – Lancelot Du Lac 3.25 Best Odds Stan James &
6.45 – Bosham 10.0 Best Odds Bet365 / Skybet & 5 others
Shamardal 12 runs, 6 wins, 9 places 50.00% win SR, 75.00% place SR
Stake Split 2 x £9.22 on each selection.
2 running in the same race both by Shamardal means an equal split, I have again based this stake on a worse case scenario if Port lairge loses so I can lock in the odds available.
Hopefully we can be on the winning trail tomorrow good luck with all your selections
Cheers
Steve
Hi Steve. Ok can see what you are doing now and it’s an interesting angle. My issue with systems period is they throw you in to races I feel should be best left alone. 6:45 Ch being one such race, as Josh’s January pointers gives Doctor Sadonicus who in addition has a sprint record of 111 in single digit line up’s. I like both of yours but feel I could back all 3 and still miss the winner as the Ryan horse on speed figs. Hopefully your have the winner.
One interesting thing on Port Laige is over 2 yrs shows 38 runs for 1 win 1 place, However a 5 year check on this distance AW only gives 31 3wins 6 places and then (the interesting bit) Southwell only 3 Runs for 3 wins!
HRB shows Port Lairge 12 runs 1 place on AW and 25 runs 4 wins on flat, wins at 6-7f. Today is 1m4f.
Yep Gary the use of systems will forever divide the racing community. At the end of the day they are simply another level of information to use as you please – and you clearly like using as a starting point etc and are very selective. A good system/research, can allow over thinking to be removed and are another way to enjoy the game- esp if short for time, and you want an interest in the odd race with prospect of coming out in front over time. I have researched some very good, some bad, some atrocious in my short time to date and some caution is always advised.
I think I have always wanted to make basic system selections (I am mainly trainer behaviour as you know) more sophisticated and I have no idea why it took me so long to think of the ‘ratings fusion’ idea, and also just highlighting ‘trainer form’ pointers. Those ratings take account of plenty of factors my systems simply don’t.
So, each to their own. Important thing is to find an approach that you enjoy, and that makes the game pay for you over time. Many ways to skin a cat in this game, and I enjoy reading your own insights etc.
While you should never feel ‘forced’ into betting in a race, I have learnt to my cost a few times that if you do follow a system, even if only as a ‘way in’ if there is a big priced horse,and you can’t fully rule it out, just ‘trust the stats’ .
Josh
Hi Gary
Yes one of the negatives to a systematic approach is that there will be races and most certainly some horses that you would normally not touch with a barge pole and will run accordingly, but on the positive side it allows the user to have a structured plan with a sound method and a disciplined staking strategy not biased by odds, form, draw etc and some of these no hopers on paper will hit the board it also takes emotion out of the equation. My challenge is to double the original investment each month and hit £10,000 by the end of April. I done a similar strategy with Jockey / Trainer Combo’s etc..during the flat season and it comfortably more than doubled the original stake each month. I have a spreadsheet with full results and can email across if interested. This method is new and as such is untested live but is based on sound principles and I would like to think over time it will do well. Thanks for your input Gary happy to discuss any improvements or modifications…..
Ps – As pointed out by Chris ” Pastoral Pursuits” has to be the biggest anomaly going over this 1M 4F trip at Southwell most of its progeny are sprinters and this is normally where they are seen at best, but the figures don’t lie and as such any progeny running over this C & D has to be of interest unless this changes over time and drops below 40% win SR
Cheers
Steve
Steve two things I did spot with Pastoral Pursuits is that 3 of the 5 are from one horse and there has only been one qualifier in the last 5 (ish) years without meaning to poo poo your approach with this one like……I’ll get my coat.
Top quality post and top comments!
Very interested in your systems Steve, are your selections posted anywhere else or is these comment sections the best place to find you!
Thanks all and good luck
Hi Tim
Sorry for the late reply been a long and busy day, Yes I just post on the comments here and try to add something different to what is an excellent blog and service that Josh provides, Its good to have varying approaches and there’s lots of good info and ideas shared by most on here always a good read
Cheers
Steve