IRISH SAINT – 1 point win – 8/1 (PP/Betfs) 7/1 (gen) UP
MINELLA DADDY – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) 2nd
This looks a fascinating race not least because quite a few have stamina questions,inc Irish Saint. But, Go Conquer,Eduard and Le Mercurey fall into that group also.
There are a couple of interesting stats … Age 5-8 has been key the last 8 years, and the last 8 winners all ran 21-45 days ago also. Applying those two would leave a shortlist of Annacoty/Eduard/Irish Saint/Minella Daddy/Fourth Act/Go Conquer
Minella Daddy… well I am not sure what he has done wrong here or why he is quite this big in the market. He is in form, progressive,definitely stays,is a solid jumper and there could be much more to come. This is a step up in class but he deserves to take his chance I with luck in running I can’t see him being far away here. 9s looked to big to my eyes given he is the solid option here who I know should get round and will stay through the line,and who is in form. I am not sure there is another horse in here who you can say those three things about.
Irish Saint… well a slight stab that this trip may be fine/may improve for it. The prep run over hurdles suggests this has been a target to me for a trainer who has won this race before. He has some smart form and does have a touch of class about him. He is on the shortlist and Nicholls is in red hot form still. He has a win over 22f here which suggests this extra couple may be within range and out of the unknown stayers looks most interesting at the prices. Hopefully he jumps ok as he could have a bit in hand here. Worth a go at 8s I thought.
The rest…well Go Conquer is a danger and not much I can say to put you off him..I thought 5s was only ok given he does step up in trip and class and has both to prove. I don’t know if he was outstayed the last day,outbattled,beaten by a better horse or just got tired. But,he loomed up as if he was going to win,and didn’t. But,he is unexposed and the track is clearly no problem. He will also race prominently. He is a danger to all but his priced didn’t seem overly generous in a race like this. He may go very close though,possibly saver material.
Eduard is interesting and at his best has some class..but he returned after 600+ days the last day and there is a small chance he bounces- again he has a stamina question but looks like he may relish this trip now. If he does I could be in trouble but in Irish Saint I went with the slightly younger legs who may just have a tad more class and who has at least won over 22f. It was close. I can see the case for him and why some would take a poke and I may have got it wrong. Not a shock winner. Just if he comes on for that last run/doesn’t bounce and if he stays. If he does both he will be right there. The same can be said about Le Mercurey- a touch of ability and stamina is the unknown. He could go close but always seems a bit tricky and had a hard enough race 2 weeks ago. Not a shock winner but I preferred his stablemate,even more so as he was in what has been the right rest pattern for this race, at least recently.
I think that covers the top 5 in the market and I would be surprised if one of them didn’t take this. I cant have the rest. Fourth Act is interesting but can hit a fence. Most of the others look out of form or may need the run/have future targets in mind.
V Williams Chasers November (tracking Dec) (16/1< guide)
1.30 Hay – Gardefort UP
1.50 Asc – Marcilhac UP 33/1
3.00 Asc – Tenor Nivernais 3rd 33/1
Tom George Chasers
12.35 Newc – Battle of Shiloh WON 6/4
2.55 Newc – Bun Doran WON 6/4
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
1.30 Hay – Gino Tail WON 10/1>13/2
Saturday TJC (any odds)
12.40 Asc – Wylde Magic UP
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – Live Test
(in the order they appear saved in my HRB acc…)
3.15 Hay – Draytonian – UP
1.50 Asc- Marcilhac – UP
1.30 H – Gardefort – UP
2.55 N – Bun Doran WON 6/4/ Bernadelli- UP
1.30 H – Ulbatique UP
1.50 A – Join The Clan UP/ Overtown Express UP
1.30 H – Raes Creek UP
2.40 H – Yala Enki WON 7/1
(main micro angles…)
3.15 H – Draytonian UP
1.50 A – Pull The Chord UP
2.40 H – Vieux Lille 2nd 7/1
11.50 H – Hollywood All Star – UP
12.55 H – Hey Bill – UP
3.10 Ling – Cherry Kool (14/1<) 3rd
That will be all for today