TTP Jumps Notes: 05/12/16 (COMPLETE/Late Addition)

Qualifiers + Notes + My View… (late addition to 12.40…)

Missed one in the 12.40 (updated as of 9.18am) sorry about that… 

 

LUDLOW MEETING ABANDONED 

1.35

Still Believing (micro – TJC)

2.05

Bella (all hncps)

Midtech Valentine (hncp h)

Late Night Lilly (micro- h runs this season)

2.40

Noche De Reyes (all hncp/hncp c/micro TJC+ Class)

3.40

Miss Tynte (NHF)

Our Belle Annie (NHF)

 

AYR

12.40

Parc Des Prince (micro – h-runs this season) UP 10/1

NOTE: Richards as below. The horse is now 0/5,0p after breaks of 60+ days and the market may guide. Ground a slight question but is well handicapped on old form and if he ran to his best would get competitive. He was in poor form when last seen. We saw from One for Hocky yesterday that Richards can ready them if desired.

 

1.15

Cuil Rogue (micro going IF heavy, + horse runs this season) UP (shocking run,officially soft,no good,and maybe he didn’t like it- and he can’t jump. Very moderate horse it seems)

NOTE: Richards in form, 2/7,4 places last 14 days. This one is now 0/10 but only his 5th handicap start. The slightly softer ground, the slight drop in trip and more importantly the drop in class could all be reasons for an improved show here- esp if he can build on that last run 5th which wasn’t too bad. This is a shocker of a race.

1.45

Premier Grand Cru (all hncps) UP

NOTE: Trainer is 0/22,9p last 30 days, 0/10,5p last 14 days. Horse very lightly raced for his age and based on that Doncaster run would have every chance in this, if getting back to that form. Conditions look fine. Just a question of ‘the bounce’ after such a long lay off LTO, where he ran well for a long way. They have given him enough time since then. 5s seems fair.

Gold Opera (micro – class) WON 16/1>8/1 (some 18s/20s about later in the morning also)

NOTE: Trainer 3/23, 5p last 30 days, 0/4,0p last 14 days. Horse is 2/8 over fences and conditions are fine- looks to be all about the headgear change and whether first time visor sorts him out- his last win at Ayr was in first time cheekpieces so you never know.

 

2.20

Sky Full of Stars (all hncps)

NOTE: Ewart again as above. Unexposed chaser who ran well at Kelso. No idea what happened the last day – never at the races, and maybe, for now, that run is best ignoring in the hope he bounces back to that Kelso run here. Step up in trip looks interesting enough also.

 

3.20

Off The Hook (NHF)

NOTE: Alexander again. Second run after doing very little on debut LTO. The market may guide. 66/1 in places, so winning looks tough. Trainer is 0/32,0p with NHF horses going off 50/1+. 1/37,7p in the 22/1-40/1 range- he looks up against it but you never know, could grab a place- more likely to be tailed off though it seems

 

***

My View:

There are reasons why all of those could go close (barring the bumper winner maybe) My ‘bet of the day’ I suppose from that list would be Cuil Rogue who was 7/2, still around 3/1 which could be fair enough- it is a moderate race but the class drop interests me there.

Ignoring the bumper runner who seems unfancied (but you never know) everything else has a profile and/or is doing something different where hard to fully rule out. Premier Grand Cru would be my next main fancy after Cuil above. 11/2 seems fair to me- he may just have issues but worth finding out. Gold Opera needs the visor to work and if it does he will out-run odds of 16/1 – if it doesn’t, he wont. Sky Full Of Stars looks tricky – he looks weak in the market and is up against a solid fav it seems who bolted up the last day. Maybe EW could be a safer option for those two. That PU LTO is a concern but 12s may allow a line to be put through that. Trainer is 1/23,6p with handicap chasers that PU LTO.

Good luck however you play them.

I will update results later today.

Josh

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