FREE DAILY POST: 02/12/16 (COMPLETE)

Complete…Jumps angles + Stats/Angle x2…

TIPS

1.30 Exeter ABANDONED 

Damn- you take a chance- that is 60-90 minutes I will never see again! Moving on… 

Dancing Shadow – 1 point win – 10/1 (lad) 9/1|8/1 (general)

What Larks – 1 point win – 22/1|25/1 (general)

This race is giving me a headache but my pins/darts landed on these two, from a shortlist of four at the prices which also included The Greendale Rocket and Royal Native. (we know how this pans out!)

I will come back with some reasoning etc in the morning. But… Dancing Shadow… has been running well and looks like this kind of trip could be the making of him – it is certainly worth a go and we know he handles the track. The way he has stayed on the last twice suggests he could be up for this. Very ‘gentle’ ride I thought the last day over the last few, having had a problem at the start on ground that may have been soft enough.

What Larks- well he just looks a massive price for one so lightly raced who came on a bundle for his reappearance last year. The way he won at Chepstow, and ran at Taunton before that, suggests he could also relish a trip like this. That last run should sharpen him up for this. (when he won at Chepstow he stuffed the Tizzard horse who lines up in this, as an aside) He has clearly had problems and could not be good enough/may sulk (a few letters in his profile) but at 25s, from the bottom of the weights and with Sheehan up (looks interesting) I had to have a stab.

More to follow in the morning…

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST

5/1 and 8/1 winners, 2/2, on Thursday, which was welcome…

Chase

1.30 – Gary Charm (Pipe, 11/1< best )

 

December Trainers 

Research can be found HERE>>>

Micros

2.40 Exet -Beatabout The Bush (McPherson)

6.15 Wolv- Upavon (Williams, 14/1< guide) 2nd 6/1 (agonising,door shut in face)

Trainer Track Combos

Use these as a starting point/guide I think… 

Gary Moore/Sandown…

12.40 – Vikehal UP

1.15 – Imari Kid / Light Of Air / Persaverance – all UP

2.25 – Gores Island 2nd

3.35 – Sea Serpent UP

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

1.05 Sedgefield- Darsi Dancer – 8s/7s… (PU 9/2- fairly well backed suffered major interference at the first -dont know if that caused an issue but he never went a yard after that,and jumped more and more to the right,jockey constantly looking down- prob made no difference in the end,winner hacked up) an interesting one that has appeared as a qualifier against last seasons ‘handicap’ portfolio which was ok,albeit a bit too simplistic I think-or maybe just a few trainers had awful seasons- anyway this one looks at this trainer’s handicap chasers running in the North West/East, which are his target tracks it seems. 24/88,37 places with such types in recent seasons, going off 12/1 or shorter. 2/12,4p this year. This one looks interesting – his first proper chase under rules but has some ok form in Hunter Chases to make him of interest. Stamina is no problem and neither is the break I don’t think. Looks interesting to me- in a shocker of a race. And on what is now a quiet day with Exeter off, I will have a go

12.45 Limerick- Wood Emery – 10/1 ...(UP, name your price, big drift- he was ridden if not there to compete! ‘odd’ lets say. Maybe he was just not very godo or they have a longer term handicapping plan!)  of some EW interest maybe given the trainer us 5/16.10 places with 1st time starters in the last 2 years. He also had a winner yesterday and is now 1/1 in the last month! In form!! 🙂 The market could well guide with this one- any drift from 10s / no money, and my £5EW may be down the drain – but with maiden hurdlers going off 10/1 or shorter in the last two years he is 10/37, 21 places… 2/6,5 places within that those having their first every career start. He looked interesting at a price, albeit if he goes to 12s+ I won’t be expecting a return…

 

That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets. Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Paddy Watch

    Paddy has a few tomorrow at exeter

    2.05 Lillington 1pt win 10/1 BV
    2.40 Ainne Alain 1/2pt win 7/2 generally
    3.15 Baeney Dwan 1pt win 11/2 Bet365

    Running Total +11.5

    Also cant let 10/1 shot for for Tom George go unbacked at exeter,Always On The Run 12.55

  2. Worth a couple of quid to find out. Win (chase) and place from 2 course runs. I’ve gone win only with the absence. Thanks for flagging up.
    Paul

    1. I had Hi Bob too. Trainer a dab hand at resolving horses issues. Was 16s earlier so some decent money come for this one. Of other horses mentioned I like Azure Fly and Charlemar too. Let’s hope racing goes ahead at all the tracks.

  3. Hi, I have been taking a break after some poor form but am off to Sandown on Friday and so will be looking for a few winners. Any contributors?

    1. Hi Martin.

      I think your man Mr. Moore had all the winners at this meeting last year if I am not correct. I had come on here in a hope your were going to tell us the winners.

      Enjoy Sandown and Have Fun.

      1. Gores Island is well fancied. Virekhal less so but can be competitive against the Nichols horse. I like Swincombe Toby in the last for Hobbs.

    2. Hi Martin… I think the only live one at the prices is Vivas in the 3.35…. currently 6/1. my other two are iffy at the prices.
      Volvalien 1.50 and 2.25 Messire Des Obeaux

      Others shorter again….

      have a good day and BOL.

  4. Looks like a good day of racing tomorrow. Azure Fly looks like a very good e/w bet in the opener at Sandown. The favourite appears to prefer softer ground (his wins on good were in a bumper and novice hurdle) and isnt proven to stay the trip. Most of the others are either out of form or dont have the right conditions. He ran a solid race in second behind Troika Steps LTO who went close agian off a 9lb higher mark and this looks an easier race. Plus all his best form is in fields of this size. I also want to have a small bet on Aintree My Dream who was very impressive on his hurdle debut and looks over priced. Skelton is normally very good at placing them so I dont think he would throw him in if he didnt think he would be up to the task.

    Moving over to Exeter and Opening Batsman looks to have his prime conditions in the 12:55. Fry remains in very good form and is 4/7, 5 places over chases at Exeter in the past 2 years (12/30, 20p overall). The only time McKenna was on board was in last season’s Betbright which was arguably the horse’s best performance in the past 12 months. The 1:30 looks tricky but marginal preference goes to Royal Native. Honeyball is 2/4 over handicap chases here in the past 2 years and Noonan is more than worth his 3lbs. Appears to like these long trips with a 1st and a 2nd at 3m3f and he looked to be staying on at the death. Plus being out of Kings Theatre I dont think the extra 4f will be a problem. He goes well fresh and has yet to be out of the places off a break of more than 60 days. I think the handicapper has been very generous to drop him 7lbs considering his 4th in February was behind a horse now rated in the 140s. Loves it around here with a record of 112 from 3 completions. Finally I think Charlemar will defy his penalty and win the 2:05. As previously mentioned when he won before he is probably Harry Whittington’s best novice and is highly rated. The 3rd has since gone close in a higher grade running Thomas Cambell close a couple of weeks ago at Ascot.

  5. Thanks for your insight Nick. I will study the sandown card in the morning if the frost stays away from the course. I have Opening Batsman in my tracker. I thought he was at his best from January onwards usually? What about Woodford County in the stamina test, 1.30 Exeter.

  6. Exeter 1.30
    Royal Native
    Had a long break from May 2015 to now apart from one hurdle race in Febrary 2016.
    History shows hurdling, then four chases up to May 2015.
    I think that there must have been a problem.
    The horse has always been with Honeyball, supportive owners; another horse also with the trainer.
    I suggest that this is a laid out long term plot as strike rate for the owners good.
    Previous FTO form and certainly quick as a hurdler.
    Potential improver.
    12/1 Sky 365 WH

  7. Can anyone find me some stats on dr newland runners since October his stable seems in very good form maybe an angle of interest there thanks

  8. Hi all.
    I’ve had Vinny Gambini on my tracker for some time now and some might ask why but I have stuck with him and can’t let him run unbacked today in the 13.05 Sedgefield. His mark has dropped alarmingly as he has srtuggled for form but jockey is 21% when riding in chases and same class as today for this trainer. The fav might bolt up but is way too short with stamina to prove.

  9. 1.05 Sedgefield…… a bit of a strange race with nothing really solid, but has attracted a lot of bets. Major Ridge is being touted as a live bet, but with no ew really and Mickey Hammond so out of form it’s difficult to see it as a winner, but Henry Brooke is a good booking. I have it high on ratings, but can’t really see past a few others here.
    Is that a cue to leave alone. To many fancies in a poor race.

    1. Yep I think I may as well have just lit that £10 note and used it to keep me warm, for a short while! The other one has been well backed though, can’t have it both ways I suppose haha. You have to take a chance- given that profile/his record could have halved in price. You never know though!

  10. I have had a walk of part of the course at sandown and there is no soft in it from my perspective. Good I would say.

  11. Hi Josh, Just a quick line to say thank you for recommending the column ” Up The Hill ” by David Massey, short time ago. A good read and a good tipster also. Yesterday he gave London Pride which won, but even better today was Cabragh in the 1.05 @ Sedgefield, which low and behold came in at 34.00 BFSP, It’s also one of his Ten to Follow this year. He also mentioned that it’s also entered up at Hexham next week. Will i be following this column in future…….you bet i will!

    1. I was hoping one of you may have read that and had a go… alas, I was so busy it was first day this week I didn’t read the sodding column. I saw him tweet after the race and my heart sank! It had everything – was so obvious after the race that was worth a punt, more annoyed i never pondered him. Never mind. Glad you had a piece, did it easily – it is a superb column- I like to find the good stuff for you all! 🙂

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