Thank the lord for the stats. Nice to see Venetia fire in a double figure price winner after a nice drift from his morning price of 6/1. My tipping frame of mind is clearly a bit fragile at the moment – often I would always favour the hardier chaser who was a pace angle also – over an unexposed chaser having second start in a handicap chase having run in a novice handicap chase the time before. I thought 6s was short on one, 11/2 was decent on another. Poor. Especially given how RP ran fresh last season. That thinking around price was off. Anyway I will work through my issues in full public glare and try and improve from an ok base. There is always the Becher chase on the horizon…going for the 33/1 hat-trick on this blog! (i think that may be asking for too much but you never know!)
None. No 3m+ handicap chases of interest for me.
Venetia Williams Chasers
2.35 Kempton – Uhlan Bute – UR (horrid,going to hose up,got in close 2 out)
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– LIVE TES
After a ‘quiet star’ (ie not very good) these are starting to fire a bit now, or at least are finding a few nice price winners…
2.15 Lud – On The Road (EW won LTO) NR
3.40 Kempt- Midtech Valentine (improve for run/fresh) WON 4/1
2.35 Kempton – Uhlan Bute (V Williams 60+ days) UR
I have a NTD ‘unexposed’ chaser angle i keep track of, 17/51,26 places since 2013-, +66 points. 4/6 in 2016. Very micro.
1.40 Ludlow- Better Days – UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
1.40 Ludlow – PHANGIO 6/1… (UP travelled well but did look like ground took its toll. May not be any good around for a while now but will win some weak chases again come spring/summer!)Money came for winner and no shock result there,handled soft,plenty in hand. I will put the mockers on him here by mentioning him in this section- this one won for the TTP stats at 12/1 the last day, relishing the step up in trip in a race that fell apart due to non runners. I think he beat a non stayer there but the way he jumped and travelled may take him a long way in this. Given he is one of a few with any recent chase form of note on offer, i found 6s a bit big. A couple of ‘ways in’ really – i noticed Sheppard is 8/26,13 places with his last time out winners in the last 2 years, +19 points profit. Decent. There is also a pace angle- they may try and make all again, or in any case be up there. His slick jumping (famous last words) may see him be able to dominate this. There is a concern about the going, if it is soft (looks likely) but nothing else in here is thoroughly proven on it – bar Vice Et Vertu (Brennan riding for Daly,he is getting about these days,interesting!-his would have a chance if leaving behind his chase form when last seen and his mark has dropped plenty) and Kapricorne (who could go well here but is now 0/11 over fences and questions are mounting,albeit getting well handicapped and conditions fine-his jumping always been a bit of a concern over large obstacles) There are a couple of runs in ireland in the mud which suggest it is too early to categorically say he is a good ground horse only. Amber Gambler is the other interesting one- really could be anything and could have a tonne in hand here. He is a previous point winner and is the ‘sexy’/interesting profile in this I suppose. So, I suppose it looks an open enough race but one full of intrigue. Phangio may not be good enough but he is fit, in form, we know he can win over fences, and he will be in the right place. That may count for plenty in a race where everything else does have more questions than him to answer for me…. Phangio, Vice and Amber to be battling it out maybe.
A ‘bonus’ qualifier from the TTP AW Reports..
4.00 – Bowson Fred – UP 5/1 15/2… qualifies on a certain stat. This one was 10s last night and there is plenty to like about his chance I think- he has the class for this, is 2/6 on the AW, has had a break- won after 60+ days off before, Easterby is in’form and he could get a toe into the race from his stablemate. He will be up there in the right place. Looks interesting. I think he may have been tipped by Gary Priestley also.
That will be all for today.