FREE DAILY POST: 20/09/16 (COMPLETE)

Post complete…TIPS… jumps angles…

The Tips were rubbish again,just about given back the November profit from Caulfields and Valadom I think. Much work to do.

Still, cheering on Coneygree and then Cue Card will live long in the memory. If Coneygree can stay sound those two may have a few battles left in them yet.

Anyway, if you want to entertain yourself you can watch me have a go at the Commentary Challenge at Haydock on Saturday. John Hunt was quite complimentry but I have a bit of work to do to match him haha…

Watch me commentate HERE>>

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TTP: FREE POST… You can read today’s TTP qualifiers for free if you wish, and are not in the Members Club. The stats are on +97 points in nearly 8 weeks and +24.5 points this week alone. When I do something like this they normally all lose so you have been warned 🙂

You can use them as you please HERE>>>

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TIPS

 

1.20

Albert Dolivate – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) 3rd

Cailleach Annie – 1.5 point win –  11/2 (general) UR*

*hmmm. Cailleach never really jumped or travelled that well. The curse of my tipping maybe! Both of Walford’s ran fine races and but for a mistake Castarne may have won but good old Venetia won out- that one drifted from 6s to 10s at which point I may have thrown something at him- I didn’t think 6s was generous  given last 4 starst, 10s may have made me think a bit differently. Just trust the stats. 

I will try and keep this brief but by crossing off these two I hope that helps you narrow down the field!! 🙂

In all seriousness I would hope one of these two can do the business for me…

Albert – well the trainer stats here are good and I think he may have changed his training regime/facilities as it looks to me like he can get them fitter at home than he used to- well he is now 2/23 odd with handicap chasers returning 60+ days off and both of those have come this season, from October. One of those was here. This horse loves the mud it seems and Exeter has had a load of rain – the ground is a mixture of soft/heavy/good to soft in places. It could take some getting around here you would think. Fitness is the question but that is just about in the price for me- he is unexposed and had one chase go on good where he didn’t do much. I like the fact that they are not messing around this season and have pitched him into a decent enough chase at a course they target. I think that could be read as a positive – that they like him as a future chaser. Best has been on some of theirs recently and rode one of their recent chase winners. In this ground his weight should bea positive also. Hopefully he can get into a rhythm and he can jump. He will relish conditions.

Cailleach- goes for the trainer who won this race last year and has a decent jockey on here, worth all of his claim and more. Again they haven’t messed around with getting this one over fences. His novice hurdle runs suggest he will relish deep ground albeit they are never the perfect guide. You could argue he had the perfect prep for this race last time out- if indeed it has been a target you get the impression it may have been. The ground may have been lively enough there and he may have needed the run but he ran well into 4th. The Curtis horse infront of him there won at Ffos Las a couple of days ago. Again he has  light weight and really could be anything as a chaser- could have a bit in hand here.

Of the rest…

Well chances can be given to a few I suppose. Pipe’s is unexposed- that is a big weight in deep ground for any 6yo to carry for me (that is one of those statements that I should dig into with some stats!), and even more so after a break. Pipe doesn’t do that well with handicap chasers here- 3/39 or so. Clearly unexposed I just thought this was a big ask and he is the same price as ‘Annie’ – and given she has had a run,and the trainer won this last year, plus the weight, that tipped it i think. Clearly no shock winner.

I don’t know if Dancing Shadow will handle this ground and he is starting to run out of excuses. He has been kept to good- his sire’s offspring get cut in general but it is an unknown. In that context 6s is short enough I think,not overly generous. If he handles it and repeats his last run he shouldn’t be far away. Fit and in form, that may count for plenty in this.

Royal Palladium – ah i am leaving a VW chaser in the mud, first time up in November- I am probably mad but the wheels did come off the back end of last season and he does have some form/ability questions to answer. Clearly if he is in the form of that Wincanton run on seasonal reappearance I could be in trouble. Also other jockeys are higher up the pecking order- maybe of interest that young Charlie D is at Uttoxeter. Or I am reading too much into that. His last 4 runs were just a bit too poor for me to want to jump in at 6s.

Wizards Bridge looked out of love with chasing when last seen over fences and his jumping has always been a bit sketchy. Could be a tough ride for this inexperienced jockey- if a pro were on I may have been more enthusiastic as conditions are ideal. Just whether he can get back to the form of his one chase win. If he did he would go well, but that is a question. Nail M needs much further for me- a slow plodder, and may need the run. Castarine- may need the run also- as may his stablemate- again his last two runs were just a bit too poor for me- and I think Best may have had the choice here or been put on the one with the better chance. Form/ability concerns over this one, but at his best of a couple of seasons ago would have a chance. Not the worst 10s shot in the word and another TTP stats horse!

The other three have a few too many questions for me.

PACE…Pipes can get on with it and so can Royal Palladium. Albert wont be too far behind them and ‘Annie’ will be given a more patient ride, staying on through the mud late in the day I suspect.

Hopefully I can get a run for my money this time!

Brave souls anyone who follows me in…

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST

Hurdle

2.40 Exet UTTOX – Moidore (clear top weights) UP

3.30 Exet – On The Road (williams won LTO) WON 13/8 

Chase

Williams 60+ days…

1.20 Exet- Royal Palladium WON 6/1>10/1

2.10 Uttox – Elenika- UP

2.25 Exet – Last Shot – UP

***

Venetia Williams Chasers November

1.20 Exet- Royal Palladium WON 6/1>10/1

2.10 Uttox – Elenika- UP

2.25 Exet – Last Shot – UP

 

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POST COMPLETE

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

34 Responses

  1. How’s your luck, lads?

    If you’re left licking your punting wounds after an apocalyptic Saturday’s racing, why not read about my luck today? It might make you feel better.

    First bet: Chase the Spud in the 1.15pm. A mud-slinging second. Put in a big run, beaten by a better horse. No complaints. Plenty more chances today.

    Second bet: Kylemore Lough. Thought he looked a bit big in the market. Second, done by a short head!

    Next chapter in the tale of woe: Westren Warrior ante-post, 4 places at a huge 20/1 that I’d snapped up a couple of weeks back. Needed the rain and, thank the skies, got it! 5th.

    Surely the betting Gods would take mercy on me in the Ascot 2.40, surely! The ever-improving Lil’ Rockerfeller gave a huge run under a determined Whelan drive. But alas, one for the jolly-backing non-thinkers. Would’ve got a nice bit of BOG 11/1, but on this day, my fate was to be done on the line by Yanworth. 3/4lgth 2nd.

    And that concludes an Armageddon of a punting Saturday. Not even a fresh-legged Venetia creature could abate the damage.

    Ah well, it’s the long-term game we play, eh?!

  2. just an observation the last three Saturdays all the big chase races have fallen to the older horses sire de grugy cue card last week the first three home in tarquen de seul race were all 9yo week before gentleman jon 8yo and the one the fell at the last in this race 8yo are the older horses just that bit better any thoughts anyone
    antony

    1. Perhaps the older horses start a new season quicker as they run to a standard but don’t have improvement in them, whereas the younger horses need the practice? Stab in the dark!

      1. yes could be the reason personally I’m going to give the older horses more than a second look this month and next and see our the races pan out

    2. I don’t think it’s quite as simple as that. Gentleman Jon had the race fall into his lap not from just the last fence faller but a number of others underperforming. Cue Card I think would have won the Gold Cup this year and was the best 3 mile chaser in the past 12 months. He wasn’t up against anything that’s likely to trouble him come March time (you could argue Coneygree could but for a horse that likes to run fresh I have my doubts). As the for the other two they clearly group horses running in a handicap. SDG has always been a right handed soft ground horse. Yes he rose to the occasion during the year when he won at the festival but it was hardly a surprise when he didn’t run well on good ground in top company but even last year he was mixing it up with the best on soft ground. If he came up agianst a young horse like Fox Norton than he probably would have lost but there wasn’t anything in that field that looked ready to take a step up.

  3. Great bit of commentary Josh i believe you found your occupation.
    Hope you had a great day at Haydock ,didn’t spot you on the day or i would have come and brought you a pint.
    Up and down punting day myself but was great to be there.
    Keep the faith in the tips all will come right.

    1. Ha cheers Graham. Yep I enjoyed that but doing it live quite a different challenge I think. Great fun though. Yep it was a great day of racing, superb to cheer on both Coneygree and Cue Card. Special horses. Hopefully Coney can come on for it albeit he looked very fit. Next couple of runs will tells up more but him being back makes the two biggies to come much more of a spectacle .

  4. Hi Josh

    your quest for selecting winners might be down to an “mystical aura” that you need that originated in China and they use to decide if a horse is ready, or not, to go and win a race……now it’s different for humans but similar principles still apply…..it revolves around your Birth-date……in your case it’s probably a Saturday !!

    http://www.biorhythm-calculator.net

    this is one of many similar programs which will tell you if you are having a good day….or a bad day

    Your “emotional cycle” revolves every 28 days so if you don’t already know which day you were born, then this will tell you and when it shows a “critical” day….that’s when to reduce stakes, avoid having a bet or just stay in bed

    every day, in every way, we try to be helpful

    PS …..please don’t pick my horse in the 1.20 Exeter (Cailleach Annie)

        1. ha cheers Danny – i thought I would make some fun out of everyones inability, including mine, to get it right! I think I had it but still not 100% how pronounced!

    1. Well done Chris. I had to have somethig on in end at price but not near what I had on the tips sadly. My judgement of horses in 7/2 6/1 range been shocking for a while. Judged 11/2 Annie fine due to unexposed nature,promising run LTO, trainer record. But was that too short for one that inexperienced. On flip side thought 6s RP short given form back end. But if you did just look at his seasonal reappearance last year,fact he is a hardy chaser,front runs,and it is Venetia time, maybe 6s was just fine. Game makes your mind like scrambled egg at times!

  5. I have others in the race to fall back on…….in case of emergency…… so not to worry (Oh for a little sad face !)

    it was meant to be “tongue-in-cheek” ..Chrisrees

    not to be taken totally serious

    so is Saturday anyone else’s birthday besides Josh’s ??…..(also a little sad/happy face)

  6. The Andrews Mount and Holding have both gone for Cailleach Annie in the tipped race, Josh. I’m on her, each way, but good luck yours.
    Paul

    1. Ah good to know. I didn’t look last night as I was out but in that case I assume she was quite a bit bigger. 11/2 still seemed ok given profile etc. GL

    2. LOL…be careful of the Cailleach….in the Gaelic she is ‘The Hag of Winter’ who clears the earth of the weak and dross…..
      I’m to superstitious to mention her.

  7. Looks like we have nearly half the field covered in some way,at least we will have something to cheer home maybe,which is no bad thing.My fate yesterday was similar to Aallens,but on the upsides Kylemore Lough ran a stormer and is surely heading for the top.The spud also ran a cracker,just that extra distance caught him out,Be winning some nice ones when conditions are similar arond the 3 miles,things could be worse,at least we are only lending back some profits
    The sun also rises

  8. Maybe I am looking for value when there isnt any but I thought Beforeall looked overpriced. Good record fresh. Likes very undulating tracks including a 2nd here. Other conditions seem to suit. He is effectively 2lbs below his last winning mark. Has a record of 2/8, 5 places at this level. Whilst he hasnt won right handed he has placed 4 out of 5 times including getting within 5 lengths of Le Reve at Sandown in class 2 race less than 2 years ago. He is only 8 still so I wouldnt have thought he would have regressed much. Sherwood is in better form this season than last. Has a solid record combining with the jockey in handicap chases and 25/1 just seemed too big.

    1. yep I can see some sort of case..I was looking for any hints of market support given all wins 6/1< and 0/13, 1p 13/2 or bigger...i didn't want to make too many excuses for those last three very poor runs, albeit he was out of form back end of season before, and then won on seasonal reappearance. Not the worst 25 shot you will ever see.

  9. my figures give Transient Bay, Desert Sensation, Sword of the Lord, Abracadabra Sivola. Good luck, may all who go out come back, human and equine.

    1. Yep, I had left him at 6s but had to have something on at 10s which seemed big in the end, shame wasn’t that price this morning as I would have pondered him for longer maybe. Anyway, one for the stats – they had enough covered in that race in truth!

        1. good stuff, I hope you got stuck in! Record fresh, ability to lead, his jumping, and VW time certainly made him a cracker at 10s. Cant work out if he was good at 6s or not- his pros at that price may have been better than those for Annie at similar price. Tipping mind a bit blurry I think! Would normally side with the more hardy type who was sure to be up there from the off.

          1. I just remember how well the system worked last year thinking about how Venitia was gonna stake everything for next year lol I couldn’t tip a tea cup so don’t feel so bad on that aspect 😉

  10. Was trying to work out which winner I wanted in the last furlong,least we weren’t sweating for long way out,hopefully will be same 2 trainers battling out next chase at exeter

    1. Yep good race for the stats, with TTP and Venetia I think 4, 3 of whom 1st 2nd 3rd. Typical somewhat that I didn’t tiput it! Would have preferred Albert to win but pleased Castarnie didn’t as I may have left him,and pipe horse completely.

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