FREE DAILY POST: 19/11/16 (COMPLETE)

complete…2 Tips…+ Jumps angles..

Well what a sh*t/poor day that was. Just awful. I have had two tips win this month but the rest have been awful, not even anything to cheer jumping the last. Hopefully some deep mud and a 3m4f trip can see me in better light on Saturday…

 

TIPS

1.15 Haydock

 

Sun Cloud – 1 point win – 8/1 (BV/PP/WH/BetfairS) 7/1 (other)

Askamore Darsi – 1 point win – 20/1 (coral/betway) 18/1 (BV) 16/1 (general)

 

Why These…

Sun Cloud… well this race looks likely to be run in a right old slog I think- it looks testing at the moment and there could be a bit more rain. Either way I don’t think there will be a hiding place and my mind has changed on this one having pondered it- I was put off by his big weight- and that may weigh him down, but he has carried big weights in chases to win- not over this far but what with him being a micro system below also, and his price, I decided to go with him. I was also concerned by the fact he may be held up out the back and it could be hard to make up ground- but, the geegeez pace map shows me that hold up horses have a great record in these types of race conditions here. I also think this may have been the plan having had two pipe openers over hurdles on lively enough ground.

This one relishes heavy and he stays further. He is also fit. He will just keep galloping. He may be too slow but Hughes is a master as conserving energy for one final push over the last few. He will creep into it steadily and I should get a good run for my money with any luck. The weight may tell in the end but he is a solid class 3 chaser who is now below his last winning mark. He has placed at the track in soft also. Oh and his trainer continues in cracking form, 5/12,8 places the last 14 days and his jockey couldn’t be in better form.

If I wasn’t in such a slump and had more to play with I would be throwing 1.5 points at the pair. I have no right to be bullish given the slumber but I really like these two,at the prices.

Askamore Darsi…

Well I put him in the tracker after his opening run of the season at Carlisle, having watched him close and had a look back through his form… ‘could be interesting in a right old slog, 3m4+ , heavy ground. Haydock??

Given those were my notes a few months ago, and given the race he lines up here- I really do have to have a go, especially at this price. It seems rather big to my eyes. He has a light weight, is in fair enough form, is fit and looks like he is crying out for a step up to this kind of trip. He has solid form over 26f, especially that race at Donny last season (where coincidentally he stuffed a fit Mysteree who lines up here at 5/1)  which was run in soft/heavy in placed. He won at Market Rasen (maybe fortunately) in heavy, but it proved he handled it. All this one does is stay it seems. The ground may have been too lively the last day but he kept on, having raced wide for most of the way. He also races prominently so I have all bases covered. He will be up there with Venetia’s horse I suspect. He may not be good enough, it may transpire he doesn’t stay – but he is game and he does just keep responding. I think he will just keep grinding away up this straight and with his weight will keep going. He also has time on his side being aged 7 but has enough experience for a slog like this. Very excited to see him run- much like Fox Appeal- it will make a poor run all the more painful! The yard could be in better form but that is built into his price. Hopefully they go a pace here where he just lobs along.

 

What Are The Dangers…

Well Rigadin De Beauchene clearly is- conditions no problem for him. I found it of some interest that all of his staying chase wins have been won when carrying a light weght, 10-11 or less. He goes fine after a break but is on a high mark and the weight concerns me- not least as evidence is scarce that he can carry it, esp over a trip like this. I think it is a big ask and he is ‘only’ 5/1, I wont be shocked were he to do it though. He was also in poor form when last seen. I won’t put you off him if you like him but a couple of niggles there at his price. He isn’t getting any younger either.

Fill The Power looks out of sorts, too poor LTO for me, and this the second run after along break. I can’t have Barafundle age 12 and on seasonal reappearance. Not in these conditions. Albeit he is lightly raced for his age. Wood Yer looks a C4 horse, albeit has a light weight – but again hasn’t had a run. He knows how to win and tries this trip for the first time. An unknown. Chase The Spud was a bit poor LTO but may have needed it and goes for a team in top form. Stamina beyond 24f an unknown and he has been better Rh to date, 0/6,2p LH.

Gonalston Cloud- guessing as to fitness again- when he won at Carlisle after ‘a break’ I am sure he had been pointing from memory and actually came into that in really good form. He could still have progress in him but fitness, ground/distance are all a bit unknown. In that context, in a race like this- happy to leave. Howaboutit was too poor LTO when I fancied him and has questions over stamina and heavy ground. Voyage of New York doesn’t look good enough to me, may not stay and in any case ran a shocker the last day. Too poor.

I think that leaves Mystteree and the early money seems to be for him- he has finished behind Askamore Darsi before, hasn’t had a run, heavy an unknown as is stamina to a point – plodding on in the Eider chase- may suggest he stays. Jumping can be iffy also. 5s seems short enough.

So I have gone with two who I know will be fit , who I know handle heavy – one stays further, one I think will relish the step up in this ground. I have pace at the front and a hold up horse out the back. A top weight, a bottom weight. They are both hardy/experienced yet not overly exposed/old.

At their prices I was more than happy to have a dart. I couldn’t back much else in here, bar Venetia’s maybe.

***

NO MORE TIPS. I can hear the relief.

3.35 – I may just go with the VW system. In truth you could make some sort of case for most of them in here and I have no strong views.  A few have fitness questions etc/well being questions.

3.35 Haydock..The Betfair Chase- well not a tipping race for me. My heart wants one of the top two to win and I hope I can cheer them on. I have 1/2 point on Seeyouatmidnight for interest at 7s- mainly as I am going to the races and will want to have backed something! Not a race I would be dogmatic about, betting wise. Some guidance in the poll maybe…

 

JUMPS ANGLES

V Williams Chasers (16/1< guide)

1.15 Hayd – Rigadin De Beauchene

3.15 Ascot- Cold March

3.35 Ascot – Saroque

 

Tom George Chasers

12.55 Ascot – Singlefarmpayment

3.15 Ascot – Some Buckle

 

Saturday Trainer/Jockey Combo (14/1<)

3.00 Hayd – Menorah

3.35 Hayd – Three Faces West

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio- LIVE TEST

Hurdle

12.10 Hay

Clyne x2 angles / Verni (improve for run/fresh)

Chase

1.15 Hay

Rigadin De Beauchene (VW 60+ days)

Sun Cloud (trainer top weights)

 

Results from the poll…

 

[poll id=”13″]

 

**

That is all for Saturday.

Good Luck with your bets. Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Paddy Watch Day 7

    Found 1 too good today,3 possibles tomorrow,Baby King for Tom George,Cue Card and Chase The Spud,on a day when there is enough bets floating around Baby King is just too short to back so its Just a 1pt win Chase the Spud 8/1 bet 365.
    A horse I have been Looking forward to seeing this year is Kylemore Lough from the Lee yard in 2.05 Ascot.Has very impressive CV so far and hopefully can build on this year.Should be a cracking race

    Running Total +13.75
    S/R 2/8

    1. Hi Gerard, Ive long deliberated over whether to back The Spud or not

      ive decided not to in the end as i feel he’s not quite a tough enough cookie for the test. Not done great in larger field events or over further than 3m. May also have trouble over the stiff fences at Haydock. A lot of weight to carry for a small horse

      But if you fancy him, go for it – you could do worse than not following me! Does love the mud though and the yard is clearly in form

    2. the rain tapping on my window has made me change my mind

      its gonna be absolutely bottomless tomorrow, which has always brought the best out in the Spud (eg. Exeter on Valentine’s Day) – he could be the only one left running at the end! So i’ve got to have something on

      To that effect, Midnight Prayer in the 3.35 also ran on that un-raceable ground on Valentine’s Day and might be worth a bet at 8/1. That said, harder to fancy given the weight he carries (11-10)

  2. Maybe Dueling Banjos at 12/1 might be a value alternative in 12.55 Ascot,Trainer is 4-8 chasers at the track, though possibly they were Handicaps,Bailey is ticking over nicely and can get them ready first time out,bit of a concern he is being schooled over tractor tyres

  3. Given I seem to only put up winners on here when they’re running in Ireland, thought I’d put up Woodland Opera in the 1pm at Punchestown, when at the time of writing he’s 6s with Bet 365 and being backed elsewhere. Great hurdle form, numerous quotes around ‘hurdles a bonus, going to be brilliant chaser etc’ and he’s up against a favourite in Coney Island who he beat over Hurdles and I suspect the selection will be more favoured by the trip tomorrow.

    1. Hi JV….it’s 5/2 here now……I’m going for value with Just Cause at 14/1 and Last Goodbye at 8s………
      That’s how my ratings are running….but W O to short for me.
      BOL…

  4. Andrew Mount’s put up Vezeley at 50/1 (some 66s about), on the William Hill radio podcast – see also gg.co.uk – in the big race on the basis that they may cut each other’s throats up front. Interesting…
    Paul

  5. For better or worse (well hopefully better than today anyway) I agree with you that Sun Cloud looks to be the on in the 1:15 at Haydock. Moving on to the Fixed Brush Hurdle there is two I like (there is an argument to bet even more given Sky are paying 5 places and BFSB are paying 4). Western Warrior fits the trends very well and is 2/2 on Heavy ground. Has had very solid comeback prep run on ground which was far too fast and looks like a very solid pick. My other one Affaire Dhonneur is a bit more speculative. I’ve had an eye on this one ever since he glided through the heavy ground in the Betfair hurdle from way too far back to finish 4th. Trainer said he looked like a completely different horse after his break. He also thought he would be able to stay 3 miles by the end of the season. I may have this all wrong but I think they intentionally front ran with him LTO to get his mark down and his first time cheekpieces will be the explanation for his miraculous improvement when he romps in tomorrow. He does fail on one or two trends but I couldnt leave him out. Lastly I thought Sire De Grugy looked too big at 8/1. He has yet to lose a chase handicap below class 1 level. He is 3/3 when carrying 11 stone 12 lbs so the big weight shouldnt be an excuse. He clearly needs cut in the ground nowadays and his last 3 runs on good/soft or worse he finished 122 and was less than a length behind Sprinter. At his age he appears to need his comeback run. He is 12 at the track as well so clearly likes it here. One of these may beat him but with 9 runners I think he makes for a great e/w bet.

    1. You reflect my opinion about Sire dG as the emphasis on stamina over this extended 2m in soft ground is his requirement now.

  6. The Paddy Watch post is purely a bit if fun Aalen,I don’t do any form analysis.It may produce a profit or it may bomb,Paddy is my favourite Jockey,always positive on his rides.The Spud cold get into a rhythm up front or he may just down tools,and O Brien has yet to break his duck at Hadock

  7. Fergal O Brien takes Global Stage,ysterdays runner up to Ascot today under 7lb claimer,interesting at 16/1,of course it might be declared a non runner

    1. Yep Sun Cloud clearly just a slow plodded really,maybe weight told. Askamore just threw in towell pretty quickly,never going. Very disappointing. Headgear required . Maybe dismissed winner too quickly at 5s but had couple questions at that price . Good record fresh and trainer can ready them . Unexposed enough. One of those. Work to do clearly. Thankfully some decent stats winners across blog content, 3 at 9/2 3/1 and 8/1 for TTP, couple on here. But need to find the tipping form again. Will keep chipping away

  8. Hard to know which is worse,seeing horses we backed and lost hose up today,Royal Regatta and kruzlinn or missing all the winners on TTP and backing the losers

  9. Hi, wondering if any systems guru’s can help me?

    Wondering if there is any data that can be provided to show winning race distances above a specific figure (say 5 lengths) at specific tracks and/or by class of race e.g hurdles/chases and set distances?

    Looking for winning distance angles on soft/heavy ground

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