TTP Jumps Notes: 17/11/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE 1: there appears to be some problems with access to ‘The Forums’ which I will try and sort asap. You are not missing anything as yet- readers/members so far chose to just use the comments on the various blog posts. And at the moment I don’t use them – any system testing (as with handicap h/c portfolio) I do through the free posts in the open.

NOTE 2:Later this morning I will post up your ‘monthly research article’ which this month takes a look at some Irish trainer angles. This will appear on the home screen and in ‘exclusive reports’. Hopefully you find it an interesting read. 

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MARKET RASEN 

1.30

Ten Trees (micro going IF SOFT) DNQ 2nd

NOTE:unsure whether this will qualify officially but race conditions clearly fine and trainer is 3/12,4 places last 30 days. Horse in form, could progress further.

2.05

Duke Street (all hncps) 2nd

NOTE: trainer 2/7,3 places last 14 days. repeat of last run should put him in the mix. Cut/soft is an unknown having raced mainly on a sound surface. He may handle it.

Oscar Rock (hncp h) WON 3/1>11/4 (was 4s last night I think,personally missed that)

NOTE: trainer 5/10,7 places last 14 days, so in form. Horse won on seasonal reappearance last season. unexposed over hurdles. Never good to second guess trainers but he is a chaser and strange they start him off over hurdles, unless a pipe opener for an early season target? not sure.

Maxie T (hncp h) UP 50/1

NOTE: trainer 1/27,3 places last 14 days. Horse still has low enough mileage over hurdles, 0/4,1 place now 60+ days. Yet to win above C4. Trainer 2/41,10 places handicap hurdlers 60+ days off

3.10

Amiral Collonges (micro class)

NOTE: trainer 0/3,0 places last 30 days, hard to know how well going for a small yard. Race conditions look fine and horse is unexposed. Jockeys first ride for yard. Could come on for last run.

WINCANTON

1.15

Presenting Berkley (hncp h) NR

NOTE: trainer 4/30,10 places last 14 days. Going ok enough. Horse is unexposed and ran well in second for the stats at 40/1 LTO, having been 80s in places! Has the best geegeez speed figure in here by some way. Looks a fairly weak race and now gets a more experienced jockey on. Repeat of that last run should put him in the mix you would think.

1.45

Abidjan (hncp h) UP

Brelan D’As (hncp h) WON 5/1 

NOTE: both Nicholls, who continues in superb form…12/45,19 places last 14 days. Both are unexposed enough over hurdles and look fancied enough on the early market.

First Fandango (hncp h) UP

Honey Pound (hncp h) UP

NOTE: Vaughan again. FF – in the exposed category but well handicapped on old form and did once win a C2 handicap over 24f. Has been out of form for a while though. Honey Pound at more exposed end also, now 0/11,1 p in class 3 races.

On Demand (micro distance) UP

NOTE: Tizzard in form 6/25,15 places last 14 days. Horse won for stats last time out in similar conditions. Up 13lb but still going the right way it seems. Unsure how good that race was the last day for the grade but clearly can’t say he cant win.

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My View:

Well, in truth I am getting better at the ‘unexposed ones’ -(and not putting myself/you off!) just trust the stats when price is right it probably the best approach. Yesterday I did my best to put myself off Court King who was 10s- following previous winners and some market support i ended up throwing 1/2 point at him at 15/2 – but that misses the point- the error – well, yes he was more exposed, but in part hadn’t conclusively proven he wasn’t up to that mark- and every race is different. Most important maybe – while he was ‘more exposed’ he was ‘in form’ and fit. Also, I made that error of making a quick judgement as to the other horses in the race and how ‘unexposed’ they were- rather than just focusing on him, which with a ‘stats/starting point/systems’ approach is probably the way forward.

There are a couple of reasons for me wanting to ‘avoid losers’ – 1. There can be a lot of bets it seems! – sometimes too many for my own comfort in truth- and cutting back is no bad thing – but, I don’t want to be winning less than if I backed everything 1 point win- so far so good on that front, I may be around even or slightly up with losers avoided vs winners missed/not having full 1 points on some etc. 2- but I did want to avoid losers to improve on profits and try and back all the winners, and miss some losers. As yet I am not doing great on that front! But, the main thing is the stats as a ‘system’ are performing really well- profit wise- which means whatever approach we all take with any luck we are in profit….

With that said…

Onto today…

Who to avoid?

Well this is dangerous territory but I wont be having my full point, or maybe anything, on Maxie T (class Q, ground Q, fitness Q, trainer a bit cold- the market will guide for him I think,looks weak) and the two Vaughan biggies in the 1.45… First Fandango needs further I think and only second run after a long break, didn’t do too much LTO. Honey Pound- appears to be proving she isn’t a C3 animal, fitness Q and also a slight stamina Q. The market ‘may’ guide for both albeit it didn’t for his 40/1 shot that nearly won at Ludlow for the stats. And, I have looked at the others in that race. There are plenty of unexposed ones from big yards- surely one of them is winning this…?…

That leaves the rest really…

Ten Trees looks unlikely to officially qualify but could win this – won’t be counted if he does and it isn’t ‘soft’. But could go well along with longsdons who dotted up for us LTO also.

2.05 – Duke Street and Oscar Rock- the latter is being punted off the boards so suggests he is here to run a good race. Certainly has the ability. Duke Street should go well also. One is 5/2, the other 3/1- I don’t know how to play this as yet. Fingers crossed one of them wins. If the King horse is weak in the market it could well be between these two.

Admiral Collonges – looks a bet to me, trust the stats! Smith horse could make all but trainer stats here are superb and horse is unexposed and should be fit.

Wincanton…

1.15 – again no reason he shouldn’t run his race and 7/2 looks fair to me.

1.45 – more of a conundrum. Plenty of ‘interesting’ profiles in this including for Harry Fry and Greatrex (his being punted) At the prices On Demand looks of interest again at 6s. The two Nicholls horses are steady at 5s, market may guide, but they have interesting profiles also. Both have fitness questions and who knows if they are here to compete. But nothing I can say to put myself or you off those three- still unexposed and from yards in red hot form. Looks a decent little race and none of the qualifiers may actually win it.

I think that is the lot. Do with it as you please.

Good luck,

Josh