FREE DAILY POST: 08/11/16 (COMPLETE)

complete…umps angles, stats/angle horses…

A couple of things to note..

1: Results Update. I have updated results from a few things on the free daily posts. You can read that from the home page, the Results tab, or directly HERE>>>

2. National Hunt 10 To Follow. Some chaps I have met through twitter (yet to meet in person) appear to run a ‘To follow’ fantasy competition which is free. I have donated a TTP report+ Members Club membership (for a month from memory) for one of their monthly prizes.(some decent prizes to be won) I am yet to enter my team but in essence you create a ‘stable’ from a list of horses provided by them. You can find them on Twitter HERE>> Or head to their website HERE>>> . It is all free and a bit of fun. 

A Racing To Profit Team? (having thought about it I wont be doing this,there are too many horses in one section and I wouldn’t know where to start! My time is spent better elsewhere, albeit I will enter my own team and see how we get on) … if there is demand/interest I will enter a ‘Team Racing To Profit’ – I will list all the horses in a post on Tuesday, using my ‘Poll’ function – and we can create a team using our collective wisdom. It could be a bit of fun. We/You have until 12noon Friday to enter.

3. Freddy Tylicki – I am sure you have all heard by now but the poor man suffered a T7 paralysis following his horror accident at Kempton. This means that he has lost all movement/control below the waste I believe. Matt Chapman has set up a ‘gofundme’ page to raise money for his recovery/support. If you feel like donating any money, you can do so HERE>>> I have donated £30 – which given the amount of winners/profits he has helped my Fanshawe Kempton micro angle accumulate over the last couple of years was the least I could do. Anything from £1 upwards will go some way to helping. I will be donating the money from the AW guide as promised to the IJF, who continue to do such fantastic work.

 

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Some horses…

TIPS

none.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1< guide)

2.50 Hunt – Definite Future  UP (quals under both the angles for her)

Tom George Handicap Chase 

2.50 Hunt – Max Ward WON 5/1> 3/1 (40p R4) 7/4 SP 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio 

Early results suggest it is unwise to be diving in backing these systematically as yet… (3/38,10 places, -17.5 points)

Hurdle

2.20 Hunt – Prussian Eagle (E Williams 60+ days) Up 16/1

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

just one for now that has appeared in my tracker…

3.20 Hunt – BallyCash – 6/1UP (unseated rider at first, super!)  this one qualified under a NTD angle when he last ran and immediately jumped out as being a handicap plot job (or, ‘one for handicaps) when he last ran – he travelled well through the race and cruised up to my eye about 2/3 from home – he then appeared to hit a wall and go backwards. Now he either isn’t very good or he simply was not as fit as he could have been. He makes his handicap hurdle debut here, over the same distance. It is possible they have put more work in him here, and if he wasn’t fully fit there he could have any amount in hand here. Twister remains in decent enough form, 8/30,15 places last 14 days. He is ‘only’ 1/24,6 places with handicap hurdlers at the track in the last 5 years, but on paper this is a weak enough race. Maybe this one is an even longer term project but he caught my eye the last day with how he travelled to a couple out. Trainer is 13/56, 17 places with handicap debutants in the last 2 years also, decent enough, 1/9,4 places at Huntingdon in the last 5 years.

 

2.40 Sedgefield… just some thoughts on this because although it is a poor level, it looks interesting. The two Hammond horses are TTP stats picks and while you could give them a squeak,they will need a couple of others to underperform and Hammond is very cold at the moment- the horses are not in the best of form either and one has fitness questions. But, they are a decent price and the kind that like to make me look silly! LOUGH KENT – I am intrigued to see how he goes at a price – he entered the tracker last season at some point for Henderson as I was sure he had a 16-19f handicap chase in him- he was running well at Cheltenham on his last visit there I think, before taking one of the fences with him up the home straight. The wheels have well and truly come off and he transferred to J Moffatt- now he is a dab hand with rejuvenating ‘exposed’ horses from other yards- as he did when Highland Lodge won the Becher for us at 33s last year. This one did very little on his stable debut 10 days ago- that PU is a concern- his form reads as if he no longer wishes to be a race horse. BUT, Moffatt is only 3/95 with handicappers returning 60+ days off and he may well have really needed the run. His yard is in decent enough form and Hughes is up in the saddle. Today may not be the day but IF he ever returns to some of those runs around Cheltenham, he is going to sluice up in one of these northern chases for me. Time will tell if the trainer can work his magic but you would like to see more from him today. The race has a funny feel about it- the fav could not be fit (market may guide- if he is fit he looks the most interesting/open to progress) Did Cook have the choice to ride but he chose Ellisons? Apterix does have a stamina question also. In that context then this becomes an open race. Lord Wishes will be bang there if returning to the form of that chase two starts ago- he can need cajoling but if he keeps in touch/travels well, he will go close. But if he doesn’t again this race could become even more open- so open one of the Hammond pair may have a role! So, an interesting contest – I will be keeping an eye on Lough Kent as one day he ‘may land a touch’ if every bouncing back. It could be today.

Well Lough Kent looks well and truly gone at the game for now and you would want to see more from him before every considering getting involved. His jumping was quite alarming. The two unexposed ones did as the market threatened they might – Ellison’s just started to empty near the end to my eye and I don’t think he would want further than this,but could prove me wrong Blakemount has races in him and may come on for this – his bold jumping front running style should see him reward owners plenty over coming years I suspect, at the right level. Lord Wishes had one of his off days and the rest were simply not good enough. 

 

That will do for today.

Good luck with your bets. The quality of your comments seems to be getting better and better as the jumps season progresses! Well, I enjoy reading through them anyway.

Josh

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Not a price to excite but Flashman 4.05 Lingfield.Both Father and son have good chase record at course.At Sdgefield Neil Mullholand is 5/7 with chasers at Sedgefield,Bishops Court 11/2 hasn’t faced a fence yet though did win a point to point

  2. put this one up early for Tuesday because I think it will be backed OAK VINTAGE 3.45 Sedgefield 14/1 ew trainer got good course form and with horses going up in trip horse is C/D winner sires offspring do well at Sedgefield as well LTO race was a hotform race decent ew chance
    antony

  3. A couple of small bets tomorrow. Firstly I like the look of Tomkevi in the 15:45 at Sedgefield. Won a class 3 off 116 2 starts ago (beating a fairly solid yardstick in Forest Bihan rated 140 who spent most of last season going close in weak C2s and C3s and destroying the rest of the field) yet suprisingly the handicapper has dropped him to 115 after his re-appearance run which he looked like he needed (although may prove to be a hot race as well given the 3rd and 5th have won since). Should improve for the run. Obviously he needs to prove he handles good/soft ground but based on his sire there is no reason he shouldnt. Assuming he does this drop into a Class 4 should be considerably easier.

    I also want to have a bet on Pampanini in the opener at Lingfield. Its very interesting that Niall Madden comes over from Ireland for just the one ride. I dont know if this is a permanant association since over the last decade he has ridden very few runners in the UK for British based trainers (bulk of his rides would have been at the festival for Irish trainers) however he had never ridden for Harry Fry until last saturday where he had a 1st and a 2nd from his only 2 rides. Fry is 2/6, 4 places at the track. He is bang in form with 3 winners from his last 6 runners. Form of his last race seems to have worked out with the 2nd, 7th and 8th winning since.

      1. Thanks for that good to know. I presume that mean going forward Fehily is likely to take rides from Mullholand ahead of Fry. I was never certain exactly who had priority there.

        1. You get the feeling that is the case, NF will only be more busy with Mulholland moving forwards you would think- not sure as to the number of horses at each yard but get impression NM wants to grow at a pace/build quality. Maybe at faster rate than Fry?

          Also noticed today that Tom Cannon is riding for Pauling more which is interesting – he rode his winner at Aintree over weekend and can only think this is a new partnership for the long term. Suppose Nico will ride for Henderson plenty more and trainers/owners want more certainty. Interesting times.

          1. Yeah I saw that as well. Always fun to ponder jockey bookings and we haven’t even gotten started on the Venetia Williams runners given she seems to be using Deutch more this season so will be interesting how he fits in with Treadwell and Coleman when she is back in full swing.

          2. I noticed the Cannon booking yesterday and went on BP’s website. He is not listed in his stable jockeys so this has to be recent. Whilst there, he has recruited a media graduate and operates a you tube channel with some very credible output. You can also sign up to a weekly news letter, which I have yet to see

  4. I posted this system based on Henry Daly runners off a break the other night (bottom)

    It had a winner yesterday (Briery Belle) but wasnt an attractive price (9/4 in a trappy novice affair)

    There is another qual tomorrow, a 33/1 poke. Hastrubal in the 1.10 Hun

    I’ve had a tickle each way, as they system shows profit on the place market too

    H Daly
    NH season (Oct-May)
    Days since last run: 46+
    Horse age: 5+
    Top 10 finish LTO

    2016: 26 bets, 7 win, 11 place, P/L (SP): +23.5
    2015: 34 bets, 4 win, 15 place, P/L (SP): +31.5
    2014: 49 bets, 8 win, 21 place, P/L (SP): +28.62
    2013: 43 bets, 13 win, 19 place, P/L (SP): +57.36

    1. yep, would like that one to romp home- not betting in race but would be nice indication that whether may not have affected her training operation at all and they will all be fit enough to win first time up as is usually the case. Nice to see her have a runner!

    2. Thanks for this simple system can you clarify whether it covers betting in Non Handicap races and Handicap races also N/hunt flat or whether the system is for runners in Handicaps only

  5. I cant remember Steve’s exact system but Josephine Gordon has a ride for Hugo Palmer at Newcastle 16:45 today (Al Mayda) which has drifted to a nice e/w price but has started to come back in. Both trainer (4/9, 6p) and jockey (3/8, 5p) have an excellent record here (2/4, 3 places combined-all 2 yr olds since the 23rd of Sep). Certainly worth an e/w bet.

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