TTP: WINTER ALL WEATHER
You can buy the full guide for £7 HERE>>> (£1 of every sale to injured jockeys fund)
(update: there were two qualifier at Kempton one WON 13/2, Ebbisham… qualified under 2 angles, one in the freebie trainer/distance/class,and one in main guide..trainer/jockey combo. Maybe I could get into this sand malarkey 🙂
TTP Jumps Results>>> well we have ended week five as of Sunday evening and this is starting to turn into the best piece of research I have ever undertaken (albeit Sept/Oct trainers + V Williams have not been bad!)>>>
Summary>>> if backing all systematically. Since start of week 1 I am probably just up with horses I have ‘advised’ leaving vs winners I have left- albeit I had a shocker on Saturday but I don’t wish to dwell on that 🙂 These stats continue to suggest that the motto ‘if in doubt, trust the stats’ is best followed…
Running Total End Week 5
General Race Types:24/144,47 places = +45.8 points
Micro Angles: 11/67,23 places = +15.5 points
Total including multiple qualifiers: 35/211, 70 places = +61.3 points
Total 1x 1 point only : 31/186, 57 places = +49.8 points
Bonus Stats: 1/8,1 p = -4
(oh and 7/1 +6/1 winners on Tuesday to add to those stats…)
As always you can take a free 7 day trial HERE>>> (and after the 7 days if staying you get £45 worth of stats reports for free inc the TTP Jumps and the AW stats pack. A bargain for £10 per month 🙂
Back with a winner yesterday at 7/1 and hopefully I can build on in in the coming weeks>>>
Paddy The Deejay – 1 point win NR (maybe even too quick for him it seems)- 11/2 (bet365/WH) 5/1 (general)
This looks an interesting little race to my eye and I think this one is worth chancing at the odds in what looks an open enough little contest. Him and Deadly Move interest me the most, the latter being a TTP stats selection – I have had a saver on him at 1/2 point which I put on last night at 5s before looking at this race in more depth. Having done so I want to have more on the selection- I hope one of them goes in.
For me this is all about the step up in trip, and the fact that he is fit. No guessing going on here. Rated 117 over hurdles he has some ability and his best chase run was his last, over 2m5f at Fontwell, after 170 days off. He was out the back there in a race where the leaders didn’t come back and he didn’t have the pace to quicken , and when the pace lifted he was taken out of his jumping comfort zone a little. His jumping could be better- a bit scrappy- without looking like he is going to tip over. He will get better with experience I should think. That run, his relatives- half brother to 3m hurdle/chase winner and a point winner, and the fact he is a double point winner himself, suggest this near enough 3 miles could be the making of him. He looks a big framed galloping sort also and this track may suit much more than the turns of Fontwell. He has a long turn in and straight in which to organise himself and gallop on. I fear him making a howler at a fence down the home straight but at 11/2, given the race/oppo, and his upside potential, I thought worth a chance. The trainer is 0/11,4 places at the track, a few chasers running welll,and this horse has actually run here also over fences. Another tick.
All in all he looked the most interesting to me. The Tizzard horse is the only front runner in here, the rest usually held up- I suspect they may do the same but he isn’t a keen sort to my eye and why you would insist on keeping a horse held up out the back in a chase I have no idea. It just makes no sense. Hopefully Josh uses his head and sits just behind any leader but we shall see. Given the field size and the long home straight I wont use that as an excuse as he should have enough time to get going and in theory shouldn’t be too far off the leader at any point. So far at Chepstow, on this ground, nothing has come from the back over fences. Oh and that is the final point- the going. It has the dreaded firm in the title which none of these may like that much but he is one of the few with proven form on good ground so it should be fine.
Well there are two really for me…
Deadly Move- money is coming for this one and given Bowen’s recent form/connections and the horse’s profile I can see why. It ‘looks’ like the step up in trip may help BUT unless you are David Pipe (check the micro angle portfolio) I am never too keen on a massive distance move – he goes up near enough 5f here and having watched his last two race he didn’t ‘stay on’ over that shorter trip, more just plugged on and he was well stuffed the last day. Part of me thinks he may just not be very good and this step up is a roll of the dice. But, he is doing something different and he is lightly raced. he did jump well the last day, probably better than the selection- looked slicker. Ground should be fine for him also. The break is a concern, Bowen’s chasers ‘only’ 10/117 after breaks of 60+ days, 1/11 at the track. He can ready them though, clearly. Seems to be about whether he wants to or not! Chance, if staying. I think the selection looks a stouter stayer but we shall see. I have money on both. Albeit 7/2 would be getting on short side on this one for me.
Bears Rails- well he has a good chance and form behind Henri Pari Morgan last season reads quite well now really. A repeat of that run probably sees him win this well. But, he has been best with plenty of cut and more importantly there is the fitness question – he was 100/30 on his reappearance last year and faded over the last couple of flights as if needing it. 200+ days off here. Tizzard also ‘only’ 5/48,17p handicap chases at track last 5 years, and 3/32 at track all runners the last year. All of that makes me want to take him on/leave him at 9/4. He should get an easy lead and if tuned up is the one to beat, but you have to look to take this type on for me, at that price. Price Price Price. 🙂 (cue hacking up on bridle – ‘oh, 9/4 looks massive now’)
Of the rest…
well I don’t want to be on them. Albert Dolivate looks like a mud lark to me (that should be noted for future, always useful to know) If you can win in heavy around Chepstow you will find opportunities over the winter. If it ever rains of course. Fitness is also a question and like with the trainer’s Sun Wild Life yesterday, he doesn’t have a great record with horses returning after a break, now 4/50 all runners 60+ days last 2 years. Those two things make me want to leave him, happy for him to beat me at 5s. Wouldn’t shock me if he was withdrawn once they walk the track.
The other three have questions now. I can’t touch Jonjo at the moment albeit his ran OK yesterday. This horse ticks plenty of profile boxes and at his best would have a chance- albeit could be a ‘summer form’ horse. But, his last two runs, seemingly without an excuse, have been awful. Really bad. Happy to leave on that basis and he isn’t even a double figure price on which to take a stab. Hawke’s runner could go well as he is top rated and is unexposed over fences- I wonder if Tom Scu had the choice here as Hawke does like using him and he has ridden the horse a few times. But either way I don’t like his last 3 runs and I think he is a doubtful stayer- 0/4,0 places 2m5f + now. They won’t go a great pace here mind and a questionable stayer (the Bowen horse maybe, or this one) could get away with it. Happy to leave him at 5s/6s also.
So, that is the lot. A decent little contest. Walford’s horse is one to follow after a few runs/when mud is hock deep I think. (egg at the ready) Hopefully the selection can jump around in one piece- if he completes error free (and they were scrappy errors the last day, not howlers,which could have been caused my the pace they were going,and he is entitled to be learning) I think he looks sure to play a role here, staying on stoutly over the last couple when everything else is blowing up because they need the run, or they simply don’t stay.
p.s there is a 3m chase at Muss but I was happy to leave that, albeit TTP users may be hoping Proud Gamble runs a solid race 🙂
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio
2.50 Chep: Distant Rain NR /Miss Mash UP (both ‘unexposed hurdlers’)
2.50 Chep: Distance Rain NR (also the improve for the run angle)
STAT/ANGLES OF INTEREST
An All-Weather Bonus today, which I may do from time to time, using my AW TTP report. Qualifiers were 1/2 yesterday which was a good start.
Two today I think, albeit do check yourselves as I am liable to miss the odd one…
7.55 – Star Storm 10/1 2nd,close (decent EW stab maybe,trainer won race last year)
8.25 – Moon Arrow UP / Master of Heaven UP
.. We shall see how they get on. Note for any guide users… Mrs A L Perrett is the one in maidens, who is different from Mrs A Perrett who has a runner in one of the maidens. Very confusing, Linda and Amanda is it…
Ignore what I have written above there- I am getting confused between the HRB initials and those in Racing Post. Mrs A J Perrett as in guide, IS Mrs A Perrett as you will see on a normal racecard. Miss L A Perratt is based in Scotland – confusing when you only have a very quick glance, or have been on the beers 🙂 S0… her running in the 6.25 WOULD qualify, albeit is 66/1 and her record with 1st time out 2 year olds not great. But, you never know.
That will be all for today.