FREE DAILY POST: 17/10/16 (complete)

TIPS 

none

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Remember these are not ‘tips’ as such, more observations for you to use as you please. I have not looked at the opposition to these horses in much depth at all and it is very much a ‘horse focused’ post. This section has found the odd winner but backing them all blind hasn’t been the best policy to date I don’t think…We shall see how these three get on…

3.30 Plumpton – Goodwood Moonlight 7/2 – has come up in my tracker, having been a TTP selection LTO he went off unfancied which didn’t fill any followers with confidence. I thought he ran well and it was a bit of an odd ride. I don’t know what was going on up the home straight but he turned in as if he was going to play a role. And then not much. He wasn’t really put into it and the jockey didn’t exactly build up a sweat. But, who knows. This looks a much weaker contest than that – from a competitive enough C4 handicap hurdle to a C5 novice handicap hurdle here. Connections will be hoping he can get involved and given how weak this race is, and his upside potential still, 7/2 could look ok. Price is in the eye of the beholder. The tongue tie is interesting- as an aside- I remember reading something somewhere a while back which suggested that some horses can really step up when they wear tongue tie for second/third/fourth time. Horse wears it for second time here. That’s because they are used for horses who can block their breathing/trouble breathing etc. It can take a horse a few runs in a tongue tie to mentally realise they can now go through with an effort without fearing they may suffocate. Maybe this one learnt that the last day and when asked today up the straight he will fly! We shall see. Trainer could be in better form, 0/22,5 places last 14 days. Does do well here, only 12 runners last 5 years, 4 winners, 5 places. 3/5 in handicap hurdles at the track. Interesting.

4.50 Windsor- Flying Bear – 9/1… Well a horse on the flat so start laying…but I found a few things of interest here…firstly Gask is 3/9,5 places when turning out a horse within 7 days of last run in last two years. The horse…well he is now 5lb below his last winning turf mark and two starts ago at Haydock ran a decent race. He is a hold up horse so Chelsmford wouldn’t have suited LTO as I don’t believe they came back to them that day. Pace set up was of interest here…mainly as I can count 5 or 6 who really do like to get on with it and it is very possible this sets up for one more patiently ridden. He also has the top speed figure in the race 97 plays next best of 80. The only negative? Well possibly the ground. Hopefully it dries out a bit come this race. I simply don’t know if he will handle any cut. His best winning form is on a firm surface but he has only raced with cut three times and ran OK in a couple. You couldn’t conclusively say he won’t handle it and plenty of Kodiac’s have sluiced through soft/heavy having looked at his breeding stats. So, he could be tailed off and struggle to pick up. I have had a little 1/4 point EW at 9s to find out. Were this a firmer surface I would have gone a bit bigger I think, but then again he may not have been this price.

And finally…

5.10 Pontefract – Al Destoor- 9/2 – it pays to stick with this trainer’s horses when they have WON LTO given she is 14/47,25 places…30% sr, +21 SP with such types in the last 2 years. This price seems fair enough to my questionable ‘flat’ eyes. He is unexposed and could step forward further having got his head in front the last day. There was cut in the going there so hopefully soft is fine. He has also demonstrated a bit of stamina over jumps for old connections which may help if this is a slog. The same jockey keeps the ride also. I would like to think he may give any backers a run for their money to liven up a fairly mundane Monday…

JUMPS ANGLES

none.

That is all for today. Good luck with any bets.