FREE DAILY POST: Mon 10/10/16 (complete)

+20 points this weekend… 5 stats/angles of interest horses…+ a poll (post complete)

+20 points this weekend... well its safe to say I am glad the jumps is starting to hot up and at long last i appear to have researched/produced something that is highlighting winners…my TTP guide/daily Jumps Notes have had a good weekend…

15 bets / 4 wins / +12 points

That’s if you backed all of them, without looking at the horses/race etc. That isn’t an approach I personally take and so far I have been OK at putting Members off certain horses (well, telling them which ones I am definitely not backing) …having looked through my Notes there were 8 horses that I indicated I wouldn’t be backing, and they all lost. I will leave a winner at some point (nearly left a 16/1 shot at Exter who came second in a photo- gulp) but so far so good. So, with any luck hopefully  Members may have won between 10-20 points this weekend. It’s been a good start all in, but only that. Very happy with how the micro systems are going especially, which I think are fairly unique. They worked at Chepstow for Hobbs and NTD in any case.

For just £10 per month (cancel anytime) the power is in your hands. You should give my guide/daily jumps notes a go 🙂  You can sign up HERE>>>

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What’s coming up this week? 

  1. I need to do some blog housekeeping. I will be spending Monday/Tuesday updating all results for tips etc and will clarify the Jumps angles/Micro systems and highlight those I plan to keep following etc. I do need to review many of the micro angles also as well as producing more detail for the new jumps handicap portfolio.
  2. BetAlchemist… On tuesday I will tell you about a new free offer which could be a bit of fun..I am sure Nicky will try and sell something at some point but he has set himself a 1k>5k challenge over 12 months. You will get access to free selections as he tries to grow his bank. It will be interesting to see how he gets on!
  3. Narrowingthefield...my good racing buddy Ben Aitken will be launching his jumps service on Wednesday. He has agreed to write a guest post for me at some point this week and he sets the bar for free reports/content etc- so there will be plenty of free stuff to get stuck into in the coming days.

 

I am sure there will be some 3m+ chases to attack etc as well albeit I haven’t looked ahead to see what racing is on yet.

 

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The horses…

Well a day of flat action on Monday so obviously no Members post.

There are NO micro systems selections of any sort.

A few of potential interest….

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Five horses of potential interest and maybe I will go in order of my own preference. Stats wise some of them look good albeit the market is weak for some of them at this early stage. We shall see how they all get on…

  • 7.55 Chelsford – Pearl Acclaim…15/2 | 7/1 – (2nd 5/1) This one caught the eye on the speed figures and on closer inspection looks worthy of some interest. He has a geegeez speed fig of 104 here, next best 91, and 87 after that. With a handful of front runners it looks sure to be run at an honest gallop. He can be held up or race prominently and from this draw I hope they do the latter. Two other things caught the eye… he races over 6f here which he hasn’t done for an age. He won over 6f at Ripon in 2012 and his last race over the trip was in Sept 2014. He mainly raced in C1/2s over that distance. As he gets a bit older maybe this trip could suit more. He is doing something different in any case, and has ran a few decent races this season. SDS also gets the ride for the first time and he is 1/3,2 places on Dandy’s horses. The horse is also 0/3, 2 places at the track. All in all he looks to have a fair bit going for him to my eye and out of all of those I am listing here I suspect I may have my biggest bet on this one. So, that’s his chance done for! 
  • 5.20 Salisbury- Endless Acres 14/1…(3rd 10/1) interesting for a small EW wager maybe given that Fellowes is 2/7,6 places with his handicap debutants in the last year. He is 3/6,3 places all runners at the track, 6/31,17 places all runners returning after 60+ days off the track. This one takes a step up in distance after a decent enough run LTO and gets the first time visor. Finally the trainer is ‘in form’ – 2/7,3 places last 14 days. No idea how he will handle good to soft but he could be worth a closer look. 
  • 3.10 Yarmouth – Fierce ImpactWON 14/1- (what does the market know, eh?) 11/1- I am on the fence with this one and the market may guide…certainly there are two shorties ahead of him…BUT… Simcock is 2/8,4 places with 1st time out 2 year olds here in last 5 years, 9/20,11 places all runners here in the last year and 5/14,8 places all runners with Jamie Spencer in the saddle. This one has a Derby entry (not the only one in the race). On paper it looks a rather hot race but he may be worth some EW interest. Interesting how this race works out moving forwards into next season. 
  • 5.00 Windsor – Ma Peek – 10/1- (UP) another where the market may guide- Meehan is 2/8, 4 places with handicap debutants at the track, 3/12,6 places all runners last 14 days (‘in form’) and is 1/5,3 places with handicappers at the track returning after 60+ days. He is 0/9,0 places with this jockey so far which may or may not temper enthusiasm. This one steps back up in trip and gets a tongue tie for the first time. Again, another of some mild interest maybe. 
  • 4.15 Curragh- Bridgets Fable – 20/1…(UP) this is all about the trainer’s stats with stable newcomers making their first start for the yard… 7/20,10 places in the last 2 years, 35% win sr, +16 SP. That is the kind of micro angle that should pay over time. It is also that angle where all previous form on paper from the horse could mean sod all, given the logic being that a new yard may improve the horse. And boy, will they have needed to do that here. There have been some flashes of ability at times. There isn’t much more to add to that. I would say the two that won LTO in this from powerful stables are doing things differently from last runs and arguably may have distance questions, and Weld’s may have a going question. But, maybe one of them will take this. The market may well guide here- those profit stats at SP, given there are 7 winners, suggests that the market may well guide for these types. We shall see. He could just be useless. The trainer is 1/5 in distance handicaps at the track.

 

So, this could mark a high end to an awful flat campaign, or a new low if they all fall out the back of the TV. Soon it will all be jumps jumps jumps I suspect.

 

POLL: What to you fancy…

 

[poll id=”6″]

 

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I will close the poll at 1pm.

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. The Beckett/Murphy combination has been very profitable this season.They combine with Argus 5.20 Salisbury,upped in distance may bring an improved performance,trainer does well here and also in extended trips,a lot of positives so will take 13/2,Hughie Morrison is 0/12 this year at chelmsford after a very lucrative 2015,in the 6.25 has Remember Me at 11/1 with champion in waiting taking the ride,2 stabs in the 2.40 and 3.10 maidens at yarmouth in Medician Dream and Fierce Impact,both Cumani and Simcock do well with 2yr olds at track so at 14 and 10/1 might outrun their odds

  2. Hi Josh / All

    2 x “Apprentice” qualifiers today

    3.30 Windsor – Ejayteekay 6.50 (George Wood for Hughie Morrison)
    5.20 Salisbury – Not Never 7.00 (Josey Gordon for Hugo Palmer)

    Back later with Chelmsford “Stallion” qualifiers to see if “Polytrack” can continue with profitable results

    Cheers
    Steve

  3. Hi Josh/All,
    Re Fox Appeal…I find it so galling when a better known jockey is not taken to task…Your Fox Appeal…..mine was Tristram Shandy yesterday at Limerick
    16 fences,,,it was held up at the back, when it was clear the horse wished to be further up with the leaders…..I was waiting for a move and getting more irate.
    Come the last 3 jumps…a slight move….2 out horse deliberately run into a wall of horses, but trying to speed though no gap…1 out. I watched the poor beast being trying to race to late. No blame on the horse then…it was clearly totally the jockey…..The Jockey, one Ruby Walsh……nothing said by the commentator, no reference to a totally bad ride…Zilch.
    Had that been a lesser jockey, he would have been dissected at great length…But you can’t do that with the chosen ones……I watched it back sickened by what I saw. Hauled before the stewards…No chance.
    It’s races like this that make me contemplate calling it a day….Yet!, maybe there is some truth in the phrase ‘mug punters’ lol. O well…onwards and upwards.

    1. I will have to give it a watch Tony. I mean being near the back in any chase is asking for trouble. In part I thought Jacob may do that and my heart sank a bit when I saw them circling pre race- not deliberately and he would have had his reasons for being so far back maybe but I would like to hear them! The fact the winner effectively led all the way suggests he went an even pace and wasn’t slowing down- as such the ONLY way for jacob to close (having started so far back) was to go quicker- he ended up having to go a pace that the horse was uncomfortable jumping at i think- I hate when jockeys just stand still approaching a fence and let horse sort themselves out – never good on one who could be a better at jumping. That’s why I rate Paddy B- I would rather he tried firing him at them, exuding confidence, and unseating. Maybe RH, flatter track, smaller field etc will see him in a better light – but all of that may not matter if they have him that far back again. Maybe Coleman needs to get back on who tends to ride him more prominently also. Never mind. It happens sadly but never less annoying!

  4. Not much on today, although my horse tiepin last week was off. I had a good run on the Football and the Golf so cannot complain.

    Quiet day today. I see Kevin Ryan has two at Chelmsford this evening, both favourites. Dont think he regularly goes there?

    Trump’s magic, 1.30 Win, Evans micro.

    Good luck.

    1. Cheers, nice when that happens! Didn’t go mad on him but has paid for the rest and left a nice little amount so a good day assured! Could call him the winner from a long way out. The market is strange sometimes- no idea how a horse in a maiden can drift and win like that- maybe weight of money for others as opposed to him clearly not having a chance. Nice when the stats align.

        1. I will enjoy that rare glimmer of light for the ‘stats/angles’ section – there haven’t been many in truth! Bar some ‘in form’ trainer stats that is probably as good as it gets on the stats front, three solid ones there underpinning his possible chance and nice odds. Shows what is possible, more patience required on my part maybe.

  5. Hi All

    Stallion Qualifiers for Chelmsford this evening combines both the best drawn and stallions proven on surface / course / class so hopefully a consistent set of results……I realise it is tight to the first race so will just highlight this first with the rest to follow:

    Chelmsford 4.55 – Arcanista 4.5 (Arcano 2 runs, 2 wins, 2places)
    Chelmsford 4.55 – Fashionable Spirit 4.7 (Invincible Spirit 7 runs, 2 wins, 4 places)

      1. Hi Tony

        I should explain the selections are based on the best 5 draws (bar 1) and the best 5 stallions utilising these draws so they may not ultimately be the best but hopefully the combination of the 2 will see consistent results will find out around 8.30pm anyway lol

  6. Chelmsford 5.25 – Sharp Boy 13.5 (Arcano 2 runs, 2 wins, 2 places) DRAWN 8 not ideal!

    Chelmsford 5.55 – Dynamo Walt 7.4 (Acclamation 18 runs, 4 wins, 12 places)

    Chelmsford 6.25 – Encore Moi 5.9 (Exceed & Excel 3 runs, 0 wins, 2 places)

    Chelmsford 6.55 – NO Selection – Top Draw for reference 3, 1, 4, 2, 5

    Chelmsford 7.25 – Heart Locket 19.0 (Champs Elysees 4 runs, 2 wins, 2 places)
    Chelmsford 7.25 – Golden Reign 14.5 (Champs Elysees 4 runs, 2 wins, 2 places)

    Chelmsford 7.55 – Jameerah 8.4 (Dansili 4 runs, 1 win, 3 places)
    Chelmsford 7.55 – King Crimson 29.0 (Captain Gerrard 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)

    Chelmsford 8.25 – Artic Angel 4.0 (Dark Angel 4 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
    Chelmsford 8.25 – Equinette 3.85 (Equiano 7 runs, 2 wins, 2 places)

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Hi Steve, I was bit more selective tonight and only backed my top rated draw [Jameerah] if it was in the top 3 of my ratings…..It won of course, so great stuff.
      I’m trying to refine an approach to see if it may help. I’ll do it each time you post and put it alongside for comparison..it may help selection a bit. There is definitely a strategy there if we can identify it.

      Cheer Steve. Terrific stuff.

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