FREE DAILY POST: 27/09/16 (complete)

 

TIPS 

none.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

none.

 

JUMPS NOTES 

Sept/Oct Trainers

4.15 Sedge – Ange Des MalberauxWON 9/2>11/2 (all of this trainer’s handicappers are worth a second glance at this time of year, based on the stats for last three years in any case. Trainer is 3/14, 7 places with handicap hurdlers at track last 5 years)

 

Trainer Track Profile: Jumps 2016/17

Well 75 pages, 17,284 ‘words’ and many hours in my HRB account later, this year’s publication is finally complete. I have a few more things to work through before I release it but all being well it will be available from this Thursday/Friday.

Anyway, for now, the relevant horses thrown up from my stats for…

Sedgefield 

3.40 – Arboretum (micro angles) UP (10/1>5/1… he doesn’t jump very well and was held up right out the back- double wammy. Trying to close on a dodgy jumper is never wise. Wonder if they will try and make all one day. Clearly a moderate horse, not one to trust in jumping stakes) 

4.50- Virtually Ours (NHF) (from geegeez…trainer 7/27,14 places all runners having first career start under rules in last two years. Trainer is 0/10, 0 places in last two weeks, maybe a slight concern) (UP – market told there, big drift to 10s- albeit when it hit that price I had a ‘just in case’ 1/4 point on. Jefferson clearly not in any form as yet…)

Southwell

2.20 – Larkhall  (all handicaps, + micro angles) (UP 5/1)

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Ayr (16/1<)

2.40 – Braes of Lochalsh

3.15 – Fray

5.00 – Tiger Jim

 

***

That will be all for Tuesday.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

22 Comments

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  • Hi all,

    Well Jonagold managed to place, finishing second behind Ballinure who was back on second. Hopefully the handicapper doesn’t raise Jonagold too much as I still think it’s got a handicap hurdle win in it. Maybe a stiffer track or slight step up to 2m6-3m may suit as it always seems to stay to the line. Just seems a little outpaced over 2m4.

    Anyway on to tomorrow, not the greatest quality of NH racing as expected given its only September I do quite fancy one in the 14.55 at Southwell. Super Scorpion is one that caught my eye on its second race course start in a Worcester novice hurdle finishing an eye catching second to a half decent Hobbs runner called Wishful Dreaming (relation to Wishful Thinking).

    It then didn’t run until December on unsuitably soft ground finishing 16 lengths 4th to Le Prezien who’s since went on to finish 2nd to Yorkhill in the Mersey Novice hurdle at Aintree in April. It’s season somewhat petered out stepping up further in trip in a class 3 2m5 hurdle on soft ground where it never got involved.

    It always looked like a horse who had scope for fences and encouragingly Debra Hamer has pursued a chase campaign with this one this spring/summer hopefully to catch some decent ground this one needs.
    It jumped a little clumsily on its novice chase debut in May finishing 18 lengths 6th to the winner but the form doesn’t look to bad in the context of tomorrow’s race, the winner has gone in again, 3rd relentless dreamer and 4th Canicallyouback have both won twice (think u backed the latter today Josh).
    It’s second chase run was much more encouraging finishing within half length second to Relentless dreamer with Canicallyouback back in a truly run race with these three pulling miles clear of 4th.
    His next run I backed him but disappointingly he never settled looking a little keen and was struggling turning in as Presenting Streak swooped home off the pace to win quite comfortably.
    I do think Super Scorpion is better than that however and based on its 2nd last run where it split now 125 & 129 rated horses looks well in off a mark of 114.
    As one of the more unexposed runners in the field with a few nice bits and pieces of form in the context of tomorrow’s race he looks a bet to me. Not a huge price but 4/1 reasonable to me with Theatre Mill the potential danger.

    Again thoughts and comments appreciated and good luck with your bets tomorrow.

    Leon 8 months ago Reply


    • Good luck Leon, always appreciate your write-ups/reasoning. Jonagold ran well and given two of you gave strong shouts I had a little EW interest. Would have to watch again but he should improve for experience. Travelled well for the most part and he was trapped wide for most of the way from memory, which is far from ideal. It could be that a more galloping track sees him to better effect – a weak hurdle around Ffos las or something.

      Josh 8 months ago Reply


    • I fancied Super Scorpion too.
      However, he was too keen and didn’t jump great. Still thought he may be the winner rounding the home turn as he was travelling pretty well at that stage. However, Theatre Mill at the back was travelling even better and winged the last two fences to win pretty comfortably, I thought.

      Super Scorpion paid for being too keen at the end, fading back into a well-beaten third. Thought there was some promise in the run. Maybe try him at 2 miles?

      Matt 8 months ago Reply


  • What’s cost of guide josh

    ant 8 months ago Reply


    • That is a good question. Last years was £37 plus vat. It wont be more than that,poss slightly cheaper. Also working out what to do with members club. Those members get at least 50% off that cost. And then there is daily notes bit. I want to take away all work of finding selections,so that users can dedicate any time to looking at the horses/working out which stats they may wish to follow blind etc.

      Josh 8 months ago Reply


  • Can’t wait for the guide to come out josh .i look forward to it

    thomasson67 8 months ago Reply


    • I hope many will share your enthusiasm! Has been fun putting it together. Much better/more focussed than last year,the odd better micro angle etc. I think it will be helpful for all jumps fans, but then I would say that! Good for regular racegoers etc as well. We shall see this season. With the daily notes wont be any hiding place if wheels come off!

      Josh 8 months ago Reply


  • Hi,

    firstly apologies for the run of Mount Shamsan on Monday. It was well fancied at 12/1 but slipped and unseated its jockey soon after the start!

    Looking forward to the guide Josh. I have a Board meeting tomorrow and so will not be able to post. However the London Racing Club meet Tuesday evening at the Holiday Inn, Gloucester Road, 7.30, to preview what comes at the end of the Flat season. In early November the National Hunt preview will take place. Matt Bisogno of Geegeez fame will be on the panel then. He is going up in the world! Non members welcome.

    martin colwell 8 months ago Reply


    • Oh blimey Martin please dont start apologising for horses that slip and unseat!

      Ah is he now. I am not surprised. He is on the BHA racing betting forum thing also
      ,well plugged in. I will have to venture along one of these days, I have heard they are good evenings.

      Josh 8 months ago Reply


  • Afternoon guys. Next week i have the option of Leicester or nottingham racing. Does anyone have a preference? Or are they both as good as the other?

    Max 8 months ago Reply


    • Hmmm… I would go Nottingham. I don’t recall much personal success at L on the flat and I think you can get better animals sent to Nott. There can also be a draw bias on the straight track – or you can try and find front runners who can bag the nearside rail, which may help from a punting perspective. But, that’s is just me. Some may well prefer Leicester- with the steep hill it can be hard to work out stamina etc. At least Notts is fairly flat and fair I believe, fewer excuses maybe.

      Josh 8 months ago Reply


      • Thanks josh. Something to think about. Hopefully pick a few winners wherever i end up!

        Max 8 months ago Reply


  • Facilities at Nottingham are significantly better

    Eddie 8 months ago Reply


  • Just perusing Southwell 4.05 and noticed Horses bred out of Midnight Legend over 3 mile hurdles on good ground are 0 from 53 with 14 places…..enough to be aware of 4/7 Miss Mobot…..Lady Robyn may be a better alternative

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 8 months ago Reply


    • Well no issues there for Miss Mobot a very comfortable win odds were justified on this occasion now 1 from 53 lol

      Steve Wiseman 8 months ago Reply


  • Nice winner Josh, looked good from a long way out & Mr Ewarts handicappers definitely worth keeping onside at Sedgefield

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 8 months ago Reply


    • Yep never in too much date. Great position and was travelling well to my eye all the way through that. Superb tactical ride. Needed line to come in end but did it well enough. Hopefully a few more Ewart winners in next few weeks. Very simple but effective so far!

      Josh 8 months ago Reply


  • Hi Allon

    A bit of a test run this evening at Wolverhampton looking at the best performing sires over the last two years on the surface around this course and at the given distance would lead to the following selections:

    Wolves 5.40 – El Cap 6.4 – (Speightstown 3 runs 2 wins 2 places)
    Wolves 6.10 – Aberlady 6.6 – (Arch 2 runs 1 win 2 places)
    Helfire 10.0 – (Archipenko 3 runs 2 wins 2 places)
    Prisom 46.0 – (Zebedee 17 runs 5 wins 8 places)
    Wolves 6.40 – Rock Warbler 17.0 – (Ravens Pass 3 runs 1 win 2 places)
    Whispering Wolf 22.0 – (Amadeus Wolf 8 runs 3 wins 4 places)
    Wolves 7.10 – Dark Phantom 36.0 – (Dark Angel 14 runs 3 wins 8 places)
    Wolves 7.40 – Plutocracy 8.8 – (Dansili 2 runs 1 win 1 place)
    Be Perfect 9.2 – (Street Cry 4 runs 2 wins 2 places)
    Eutropius 12.0 – (Ad Valorem 3 runs 2 wins 2 places)
    Devon Drum 23.0 – (Beat Hollow 2 runs 1 win 1 place)
    Wolves 8.10 – NR
    Wolves 8.40 – Pray for Paris 18.5 – (Champs Elysees 14 runs 3 wins 5 places)
    Tranquil Time 17.0 – (Poets Voice 2 runs 0 wins 2 places)
    Wolves 9.10 – Ferryview Place 12.0 – (Compton Place 12 runs 3 wins 5 places)

    CHeers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 8 months ago Reply


    • I was showing the 8.10 as a NR but it is actually running see below

      Wolves 8.10 – Silhouette 3.25 (Frozen Power 7 runs 3 wins 4 places)

      Steve Wiseman 8 months ago Reply


  • I thought The Backup Plan looked interesting in the 3.40 at Sedgefield in first time blinkers. Thought the drop down in trip to 2 miles might suit and looked well handicapped. Drop in trip probably did suit.

    However, the horse does not look straightforward. Frontran but kept travelling in snatches and went wide round more than one bend. Didn;t jump very well either.
    He was pulled up in the home straight when something seemed to go amiss after another poor jump. Hope the horse is all right but I wouldn’t want to be backing him in future!

    Matt 8 months ago Reply


    • yep, hope he is ok. Didn’t look very good but jockey may have saved him with speed he pulled him up. Clearly blinkers didn’t work – they may be to blame for poor jumping maybe – restricting vision (another Alan point actually) with blinkers doesn’t make much sense if poor jumper! Clearly knows how to win at a moderate level. Maybe CP would be better.

      Josh 8 months ago Reply


    • Hmm, got confused between two Donald McCain horses – it was Court of Law I quite fancied today in the first at Southwell. He performed poorly too.

      The Backup Plan certainly did not look straightfoward though

      Matt 8 months ago Reply


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