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TIPS
None. Looks like a quiet weekend ahead as well, from a ‘tipping’ perspective. Unless mistaken no big field sprint handicaps to get stuck into with trends/stats. There is the Listed Beverley Bullet and I will pull some stats together for Members but unsure if I will play in it. We shall see.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
None. BUT….
My rejected shortlist (I may as well share these. Some will win from time to time but they are there for you to use as you please and hopefully they are useful to some extent)…. in the order they are on my notepad…
- 6.45 Wolves – In The Spotlight – 3/1 – Richard Hughes is making a name for himself with handicap debutants – 4/17,8 places so far. He hasn’t had many runners in nurseries either but they have run well. He was put in at 8s for about 5 minutes with B365, that went down to 6s quickly enough and then into 5s across the board. This horse is taking a drop in trip and I think he could lead all the way from his draw/running style. I expect him to go close and if he was 6s/8s still I would have put him up. He is short now and I thought 5s wasn’t overly generous given the type of race/number of unexposed types.
- 4.10 Leic- Snookered 12/1 (2nd) / Ripper Street 8/1 (UP) – Fahey is 3/13,5 places with handicap debutants here and Dunlop is no slouch either- 2/8, 6 places. Like Hughes they don’t have any ‘trainer in form’ indicators and I do like more than just one ‘way in’ The market isn’t confident on either but I was put off by the fact that 8 of the 9 runners are making handicap debut and there is so much untapped potential in here. A bit of a guessing game and why I think the market may be the best guide. Cue these two finishing 1-2!!
- 8.45 Wolvs – Rosenborg Rider 6s – Beckett and Berry are 3/5,5 places here from the few times they have ridden here. BUT Berry is stable jockey now and those stats will develop over-time. But so far it appears Berry has only been sent here for ones with a chance. Small numbers though. Bar that stat there isn’t much else to get stuck into. I suppose trainer track form is decent – 8/33,17 places in the last year alone all runners. The trainer’s horses are going OK. He ran well LTO in a tongue tie but that has been removed here which is odd. It looks an open enough race on paper and this one is back up in class. I wasn’t sure what to think. Just trust the stats maybe. But, I left him.
- 6.00 Sedgefield – Arboretum – 16/1-20/1 – Sowersby/Hughes are 4/8,5 places in handicaps here and I have long said i should just back them blind when teaming up. The profit levels are big and there have been a few biggies go in. And, money is coming. This horse hasn’t had many tries over fences and maybe they have just lined him up for this race, at a track they target etc. He hasn’t done much to date. Trainer 10/46,13 places all runners here last 5 years. There are also 5 other horses in here who all have really solid recent chasing form- solid in this sort of race anyway. An agonising one, maybe one of those where you just trust the stats – but looking at the horse and the oppo I had my doubts. But then again he is 20s. And he could go off his shortest price for sometime! Hmmm. I can feel the splinters from my fence sitting. (gone from 25s>14s!)
- 8.00 Sedgefield- Tokyo Javilex 11/1 | Cairnshill 5/1– oh more anguish. No stats ‘way in’ as such…TJ – well he stands out on instant expert as suiting all conditions. He is a proper stayer- the most dour stayer in the race on paper and what we know about the others. BUT he comes here in awful form and looks to have fallen out of love with the game. The jockey knows him well and he is well enough handicapped. He hasn’t travelled with any fluency in recent runs and looks a reluctant racehorse at the moment. The market may guide and if he is travelling well early in touch he will go very close here. The trainer is 2/4,3 places at track, including a win for this horse- he has placed over CD also. Cairnshill- well we backed him LTO due to some stats and he ran well at a big price and arguably should have gone closer. He stayed on well there and this step up could suit. 5s is only fair and it is a bit of a guess. There are a few others stepping up in trip also. Hmm. My gut says one of these two could go close as none of those above them in the market jump out at me.
My shortlist isn’t always this long, but there it is. There are about 5 others on the long-list, that didn’t make this shortlist!
I have been thinking about whether we could do the odd focus on the ‘placepot’ from time to time. Pick a meeting a day or two before- I will pull together some stats/pointers- you can all chip in and a few of us may land it from time to time. Just a thought…
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MICRO SYSTEMS
August Trainers
Fahey (any)
3.10 Leic- RoseBride- WON 10/1
4.10 Leic- Snookered 2nd 12/1
6.45 Wolv- Champion Harbour
Ivory (16/1<)
7.15 Wolvs – Jack The Laird
I am going to look at the jumps handicappers before October and probably look at a new portfolio to test over the winter- or work out what to do really. So for now I won’t be posting any qualifiers up here from those trainers.
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.30 Muss- Gabrial The Terror (any odds) UP
4.00 Muss – Invermere (any odds) UP
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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
NONE.
TRAINERS IN FORM
4.20 Font- The Snappy Poet (14,30) 6/1 -(2nd 3/1) cheekpieces on here. Only a brief look but he won after a big break a couple of starts ago and I wonder if he ‘bounced’ last time, even though a long enough break. I wouldn’t put it past him running well again here. But, I haven’t looked in any depth. A starting point…
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That will do for today. Something there to get stuck into. Ideally all of my ‘shortlist’ horses lose but I know from recent past that the odd one is going to go in and my final decision making will be wrong. Some of yours will be better. GL.
27 Responses
Lads. Let’s talk account restriction and closure, with Betfred specifically.
Last night, I put a bet on with Betfred who were standout 5/1 on Nietzsche, the Ellison system selection that won at Catterick today. After it won, I try to log in to my account to see my winnings in all their glory only to find my account has been closed and that I cannot access anything in there. Customer services reassure me that the balance is being sent back to my bank but this balance clearly doesn’t include the winnings from the Nietzsche bet.
Am I just being paranoid, or mistaken in thinking that I had successfully got the bet on, or have you known bookies, Fred specifically, to withhold winnings?
Hi Aallen…I would have thought that a bet struck is similar to a contract that is binding….Unless they inform you right away that there not accepting your bet…you should claim your winnings……They are sending you back your money retrospectively………is there no ombudsman for our betting industry.
That is disgusting what happened to you.
Where are the old back street bookies, they at least paid out before telling you to FO.
A bet is not legally binding and honouring it is optional. There is no Ombudsman either. I would raise it with Betfair and then share with the Racing Post or Racing and Football Outlook. They did not like adverse publicity. Betfair do restrict stakes on horse racing but not other sports. Betfair Exchange is good for small stakes bettors I think?
Take it up with customer services again, mate (if you don’t have bet ID at least note down the details, including date / approx time you placed it, so that you can build a case). If you get nowhere tell them you will be forwarding a complaint to IBAS ( http://www.ibas-uk.com ), and if that has no reaction forward said complaint. Don’t let ’em get away with it.
Paul
thanks for your help guys
Hi Aallen – that sounds awful and I have never heard of something like that happening before. Not much more I can add to what has been said. Good luck with trying to sort it and let us know how you get on
Silvestre De Sousa rides Leicester well
Especially the straight course.
last five years 22 wins from 69 rides = 33% SR at Class 4 and above
he could win one or two today, but the one i’m interested in is.
4:45 COMMANCHE 14/1
could go well if the ground eases.
Out of sorts this season but his rating is in free fall.
Last won here 13 starts ago off 67, with De Souse on board that day.
Today races off 53.
Seems to be consistent at Leicester, ran four times here, and longest loosing margin was two and half lengths.
Speculative shout, but I’m relying on Sylvester and course form.
Clubland finished just in front of Commanche last August and has fallen to a low mark again; uncertain about the effect of the draw.
Oh dear, Commanche is 2nd top cdg after Regal Parade & closely ahead of Generalyse, looking at draw last 5 years, highest drawn won 2 & lower 3rd three, according to RP high draw is favoured?? Gamble now on Generalyse might have little saver on Commanche?
Hi ian, I was tempted as well, but on reflection…. I see the stall draw is only 4.5%
not good enough for me. I don’t take what the racing papers say. Leicester is a strange course draw wise….. look at this.
Stall 13 0%
…….14 0%
…….15 25%
…….16 0%
so pick the bones out of that.
Stall 15 is Ettienne Gerard 2nd in my ratings to Regal Parade…but the course is a law unto itself….they say it is very equal in chance. It’s not.
Tony…what is your data set when posting these draw percentages if you don’t mind me asking? How many runners/races/wins you looking at etc? They just refer to the draw in relation to the distance etc? Cheers.
Hi All
A qualifier for the Ruth Carr 5 year olds tomorrow
3.00 Musselburgh – Intensified 5.0
This particular angle still going strong at a 47.37% win SR 63.16% place SR for 2016
Just be aware of the 8.0 price threshold anything over this would be a no bet.
Another angle that may be worth following over the coming months is for S de Souza & C Dwyer
If we look at All Weather Tracks only, Class 5 & 6 only, there has been 39 selections with 15 winners and 24 places at a win SR 38.46% and a place SR 61.54%
They have a qualifier tomorrow 7.45 Wolverhampton – Baileys Perle 34.0
Good Luck with all your selections
Cheers Steve…. I love these stats….got to be worth a go.
Take note of the Slack.Brooke combo today. 7.30 sedge. 2/2 on track and won 4 times in all.
Almost Gemini.
Yep a team to keep onside for sure. Price was short enough for me- trainer’s record with those running after a break is no concern and is versatile ground wise. Can’t think he will be far away. Good luck if you play and will watch with interest.
Morning Josh,
Yeah I was looking at Tokyo but want to wait until I get home from work before looking at the 8PM (same with Almost Gemini and Venue in the 7:30PM in the race before although I suspect the price on the former may be gone by than) given I’d like to know the state of the ground considering its meant to thunder a lot up there this afternoon/evening.
Regards,
Nick
Morning Nick- yep very good point about the weather- another one of those days/weekends ahead it would appear. Yep Tokyo shouldn’t mind what the rain does and maybe if it goes soft it will slow everything else down. All about his mindset really and maybe 11s is wort a roll of the dice. If some money came and blue appeared on oddschecker/move on betfair, I would be more interested. A return to this track could spark him back up. His wins last year came after he had clearly demonstrated some form so who knows. All about the first couple of furlongs I think. He is only proven slogger in here I believe. (Duroob is also, but a long break)
it may sound daft, knowing the weather forecast, but Sedgefield has watered. lol.
Well clear cdg even while 5lb out of handicap Tribal Dance 2.50 Fon 33/s 365, WH & BV rest going shorter as I write
Andy- I think that GoalProfits trading stuff above (and in email) could be right up your street. Not sure, but worth a few moments of your time I reckon! Let me know what you think.
Hi Josh
Putting your shortlist down in print is a good idea
I feel, it gives us a chance to look at your possibles
without the pressure of giving them as a bet and letting
us decide if we want to bet them or not.keep up the good work
and more shortlist material please
Cheers
Dave
Hi David…yep I think I agree with you fully. It ticks many boxes really and means I can get it up early- I will put the shortlist up before I dive into them in real depth. And it provides more decent info for readers to use as they please.
Just about to go through all reports etc for tomorrow to shortlist should be up in the next hour or so. Glad you approve.
*** Just noticed that our old friend Pivotman returns in the 8.45 Wolverhampton. No headgear and he isn’t exactly strong in the market. I have no strong views but haven’t looked at race in any depth. he is one of few class winners in there and there is no pace on so interesting what they do with him. ***
Just a quick one and short notice sorry….but looking at Fontwell 3.50 P . Nicholls has sent 10 such runners in non handicap chase events in the last 2 years with 7 winners & 8 places he has Abidjan today can this one possibly turn over the 1/5 fav Shantou Village? we’ll soon see
Not today lol
Yep, watched that race- poor jumping under very little pressure from Nicholls horse, out to the left. Winner did it well but a schooling session, can only improve and on the whole his jumping was very good- bar the last. Bigger tests await no doubt.
Josh, a possible system for you if you wanna look at it (sorry for not putting up Acrux in here at 12s last night – won the last at Wolves at 6/4 – but see the Thursday’s racing post in Geegeez forum for where I did put it!)
Dansili progeny / 9f / Class 5 / Wolverhampton / each way
the place stats are incredible (about 70%)
I’ve not got HRB, so you may be able to ferret out a better system than above
Paul