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None. Looks like a quiet weekend ahead as well, from a ‘tipping’ perspective. Unless mistaken no big field sprint handicaps to get stuck into with trends/stats. There is the Listed Beverley Bullet and I will pull some stats together for Members but unsure if I will play in it. We shall see.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
My rejected shortlist (I may as well share these. Some will win from time to time but they are there for you to use as you please and hopefully they are useful to some extent)…. in the order they are on my notepad…
- 6.45 Wolves – In The Spotlight – 3/1 – Richard Hughes is making a name for himself with handicap debutants – 4/17,8 places so far. He hasn’t had many runners in nurseries either but they have run well. He was put in at 8s for about 5 minutes with B365, that went down to 6s quickly enough and then into 5s across the board. This horse is taking a drop in trip and I think he could lead all the way from his draw/running style. I expect him to go close and if he was 6s/8s still I would have put him up. He is short now and I thought 5s wasn’t overly generous given the type of race/number of unexposed types.
- 4.10 Leic- Snookered 12/1 (2nd) / Ripper Street 8/1 (UP) – Fahey is 3/13,5 places with handicap debutants here and Dunlop is no slouch either- 2/8, 6 places. Like Hughes they don’t have any ‘trainer in form’ indicators and I do like more than just one ‘way in’ The market isn’t confident on either but I was put off by the fact that 8 of the 9 runners are making handicap debut and there is so much untapped potential in here. A bit of a guessing game and why I think the market may be the best guide. Cue these two finishing 1-2!!
- 8.45 Wolvs – Rosenborg Rider 6s – Beckett and Berry are 3/5,5 places here from the few times they have ridden here. BUT Berry is stable jockey now and those stats will develop over-time. But so far it appears Berry has only been sent here for ones with a chance. Small numbers though. Bar that stat there isn’t much else to get stuck into. I suppose trainer track form is decent – 8/33,17 places in the last year alone all runners. The trainer’s horses are going OK. He ran well LTO in a tongue tie but that has been removed here which is odd. It looks an open enough race on paper and this one is back up in class. I wasn’t sure what to think. Just trust the stats maybe. But, I left him.
- 6.00 Sedgefield – Arboretum – 16/1-20/1 – Sowersby/Hughes are 4/8,5 places in handicaps here and I have long said i should just back them blind when teaming up. The profit levels are big and there have been a few biggies go in. And, money is coming. This horse hasn’t had many tries over fences and maybe they have just lined him up for this race, at a track they target etc. He hasn’t done much to date. Trainer 10/46,13 places all runners here last 5 years. There are also 5 other horses in here who all have really solid recent chasing form- solid in this sort of race anyway. An agonising one, maybe one of those where you just trust the stats – but looking at the horse and the oppo I had my doubts. But then again he is 20s. And he could go off his shortest price for sometime! Hmmm. I can feel the splinters from my fence sitting. (gone from 25s>14s!)
- 8.00 Sedgefield- Tokyo Javilex 11/1 | Cairnshill 5/1– oh more anguish. No stats ‘way in’ as such…TJ – well he stands out on instant expert as suiting all conditions. He is a proper stayer- the most dour stayer in the race on paper and what we know about the others. BUT he comes here in awful form and looks to have fallen out of love with the game. The jockey knows him well and he is well enough handicapped. He hasn’t travelled with any fluency in recent runs and looks a reluctant racehorse at the moment. The market may guide and if he is travelling well early in touch he will go very close here. The trainer is 2/4,3 places at track, including a win for this horse- he has placed over CD also. Cairnshill- well we backed him LTO due to some stats and he ran well at a big price and arguably should have gone closer. He stayed on well there and this step up could suit. 5s is only fair and it is a bit of a guess. There are a few others stepping up in trip also. Hmm. My gut says one of these two could go close as none of those above them in the market jump out at me.
My shortlist isn’t always this long, but there it is. There are about 5 others on the long-list, that didn’t make this shortlist!
I have been thinking about whether we could do the odd focus on the ‘placepot’ from time to time. Pick a meeting a day or two before- I will pull together some stats/pointers- you can all chip in and a few of us may land it from time to time. Just a thought…
3.10 Leic- RoseBride- WON 10/1
4.10 Leic- Snookered 2nd 12/1
6.45 Wolv- Champion Harbour
7.15 Wolvs – Jack The Laird
I am going to look at the jumps handicappers before October and probably look at a new portfolio to test over the winter- or work out what to do really. So for now I won’t be posting any qualifiers up here from those trainers.
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.30 Muss- Gabrial The Terror (any odds) UP
4.00 Muss – Invermere (any odds) UP
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
TRAINERS IN FORM
4.20 Font- The Snappy Poet (14,30) 6/1 -(2nd 3/1) cheekpieces on here. Only a brief look but he won after a big break a couple of starts ago and I wonder if he ‘bounced’ last time, even though a long enough break. I wouldn’t put it past him running well again here. But, I haven’t looked in any depth. A starting point…
That will do for today. Something there to get stuck into. Ideally all of my ‘shortlist’ horses lose but I know from recent past that the odd one is going to go in and my final decision making will be wrong. Some of yours will be better. GL.