An easy 7/1 winner for the blog on Wednesday kept things ticking over, and the two moderate sprinters ran decent enough races, one managing to place at 25/1. In truth none ever looked like winning come the latter stages but we move on. The winner was the main danger for me so happy enough with the analysis- some hope for the future at that level.
NEW WEEKLY DIARY POST HERE>>> (is the game bent??)
Meanwhile, the good Dr – Dr Nick Hardman- of the Betting Insiders Club (that’s the one I write for on a monthly basis) continued his fine big race tipping – putting up the winner of the Galway Plate at 33/1. Whooosh. Shame I didn’t have a penny on! That club has something for everyone and if you want to find out more…. CHECK IT OUT HERE>>>
None. No target races (3m+ chases,5-7 furlong handicaps with trends) on Thursday I don’t believe.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total.. +18.5 points)
Celtic Sixpence – 1 point win – 5/1 (BV/PP/BetfS) 9/2,4/1 (general) UP*
*Ah well there was rain, but doesn’t look like enough unfortunately- for once a course that didn’t water and it remained good to firm. She didn’t pick up when asked and was eased, all of the winners best form was on good to firm. I thought worth the risk that it would soften. Still, she has run better than that on good to firm so it was still a bit underwhelming.
The geegeez gold ‘horses for courses’ report worked wonders as a ‘way in’ yesterday and I am hoping for more of the same from this one. Celtic Sixpence is 2/7, 3 places at the track in handicaps from 6f through to 8f (today’s distance) She has won over CD off 73, her highest winning mark. She races off 66 here. She hasn’t raced here since August last year. I sense connections are rubbing their hands and getting the champers ready. This is her race to win for me and 5s, 9/2 looks more than fair. 4/1 is fine also I think, I wouldn’t want to go lower than that. However, they will also be doing a rain dance. This one doesn’t need it soft but I want the forecast showers to arrive just to take the sting out of the ground. Her best form is on good or worse and while she has placed on good to firm, that would be a slight concern. IF this were soft already, we wouldn’t be getting anywhere near 5s I don’t think. That’s the chance you take. She has also won at C4 level and this is her 4th run of the season and comes on the back of two respectable efforts. She is fit, in form, and running well. She returns to her favourite track, well handicapped and ready to do business. She has the highest speed rating in the race and crucially likes to get on with it. I think they may try and make all here or at the very worst be tracking in second/third. She will be in the right spot, no excuses. The pace set up would be the concern for the fav who is usually held up and the stats say that running style is a negative here over this CD. Happy to take him on at the prices. Thecornishbarron was able to dictate a crawl LTO and he won’t be able to do that here. That may scupper his chance and he has a big weight to contend with. All in all I feel quite confident about this one. We shoule get a run for our money whatever the weather does, if the rain arrives I suspect we may get a bit more than that 🙂
5.25 Galway –
Improver – 1 point win – 9/1 (BV/BetBright) 8/1 (general) 4th *
*no excuses there, jockey got after him soon enough. I suspect they may be stepping him up in trip here, got outpaced before staying on well enough.
Well I am struggling to let this one go at this price. You get the feeling this one could live up to his name and could well be smashed off the boards. What say the stats…
Tony Martin is 3/9, 5 places with his flat handicap debutants here in the last 5 years. That is the way in. My stats pack shows that with flat handicappers here that are 5 or younger is was 10/23, 16 places..+40 SP at last 5 festivals. His runners here this week, before the 27th, have finished 2,P,2,17,2 – I know he had a winner yesterday (Wednesday) in a Maiden – he was 0/5, 0 places in maidens at the Festival so I suppose when they start winning, we should take note. There was a cloud over the stable going into this due to illness. Well to me it looks like Martin has been spending his time getting everything right, and plotting up plenty for this. So, Improver could well Improve any amount. He has had runs over jumps and on the flat in maidens. He could be no good, he could have any amount in hand. He has handles soft in maiden hurdles and he must be here to run well. Martin doesn’t mess about at this meeting. 10/1 – 8/1 looks well worth a go to my eyes. Importantly not much has shown any great winning form in this to date. It looks weak enough and he won’t need to be that smart. He also gets a tongue tie for the first time. On paper, stats wise, he is eye-catching.
That is all for today in this section.
TO NOTE: In the 1.10 Stratford both the Greatrex and Dr Newland (Desert Sensation) runners show up prominently on a few stats and were prominent on my note-pad. In the end a bit too much guesswork in this maiden hurdle. The former has tried handicaps etc and comes back to a maiden- maybe he is just moderate. The latter, at 7s, with STD up is more interesting. Trainer in cracking form,has a good record here in non handicaps and with horses he gets from other yards. The question is over the horse, and his stamina/ability to jump etc – he is flat bred/claimed from the flat (not related to stayers really- well 7-8f flat horses) and who knows if he will stay- but the good Dr knows what he is doing with this type and I wouldn’t put anyone off a nibble. Others have more solid recent maiden hurdle form but there stamina questions over a few of those also. Maybe at 7s I should have just gone with the stats and ignored the horse, but I have left him. (I may have 1/4 point on to find out)
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
5.40 Ffos Las- John T Chance
7.00 Epsom – Asfaar
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
2.00 Good – Ode To Evening (any odds) 2nd 12/1>10/1
Ffos Las (16/1< a guide)
7.15 – Swift Cedar / Vercingetorix
8.20 – Moojaned
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total… 5/26, 9 places… +48.85 points)
TRAINERS IN FORM
NONE today. A 16/1 3rd was all there was to shout home about from Perth from limited runners.
BIG MEETING NOTES
These notes are a starting point for further research….
Well a winner for Andrew Balding continued his decent record here with those 12/1 or shorter – of course I omitted to mention him on here but hopefully some of you picked him out. Hannon very nearly had his first winner over 8/1 (was 0/42 before that) and he has had a habit of firing in biggies this year where previously the market was a good indicator (namely at Newbury!) Stoutey had a winner- his technically ‘not qualifying’ due to finishing 5th or worse LTO (0/13,1 p) but they are small enough numbers and not many of those 5th or worse placed finishers will have been unplaced in The Derby on their previous start. All his runners 9/2 or shorter are worthy or close inspection.
We move on…
Ode To Evening – I will have to have a small nibble on this one- Johnston micro qualifier, also Top Weight and won at July meeting LTO- all big positive ticks. We shall see how he goes. 2nd
Montsarrat- also a Johnston Micro Qualifier. One of his other two will probably win now! UP
Stargazer for Stoute – hovering around 9/2 / 5/1 ticks his ‘micro angle’ box also. 3rd
Some stats/ways in could point the way to the Hannon, Gosden and O’Brien runners in this. If the market is to be believed they all have a smart Godolphin horse to beat. I am interested to see if Ardad’s last run was a blip, or whether he just isn’t in this league.
Johnston is 1/15, 5 places in Nurseries last 5 festivals – and also had a poor enough record with all 2 year olds here (3/43 or so, 0/15 last year) but he put that right yesterday so maybe they should be taken more seriously this year. All three of his tick positive and negative stats boxes. Top Weight a positive, as are the drawn stats for the next two. The negatives for those moving up 1 or 2 classes (0/21,7 places) but the place stats offer some promise.
Well that was some result, the 1,2,3!
Johnston’s – No 1 a micro qualifier and also Top Weight, Highly Sprung has a good draw but ‘falls down’ on class move stats. Both nice prices though.
AHH The 25/1 top weight missed the break and finished like a train in 3rd. What might have been. Still a fun run for anyone who had an EW nibble!
SO, pay attention to anything that won or came second at July Meeting LTO, they do well long term, or have done. And any Balding horses going off 12/1< are worth a second glance. He has a few runners today, who would need to be backed a bit. But, ‘odds caps’ are there to make fools of you!
A Sizing Network – Morris does well here from limited runners UP-
Oh – The Other Morris Runner (missed him!) Won 100/1>66/1! Well,he was 3/10, 3 places here last 5 festivals before this year. I don’t think I would have ever backed him on what we knew to date!
Marinero – ticks boxes for typical De Bromhead winner here- 2nd, photo.
The two Wachman horses interesting, 12/1<… 6/26,10 places with such types before this year.
Dream Walker- as an aside looks interesting after a quick glance- he was impressive at Ayr.
The Wachman horse again.
Where do you start!…All the Martin ones have to be of some interested given his overall record in handicaps here, both codes. All three a bit older,more experienced than typical winners though. (small samples mind)
Tigris River- as an aside caught the eye having a very brief look through- some smartish flat form and that run LTO may have put him spot on for this. And we know Joseph can train.
Byron Beauty – interesting for Rogers, does well with those Top 3 LTO, 12/1<
Llancillo Lord- Thomas Mullins 2/4, 4 places with NHF runners here last 5 festivals. Long time off but solid form on paper. Interesting how he goes in market and in race.