My good friend Liam has returned with a look ahead to Euro 2016. Its a light-hearted read with a few fun betting wagers dotted around. You can read this at the link below. And, if you have any footy bets you wish to share, do leave a comment…
EURO 2016 PREVIEW: READ HERE>>>
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NEW FREEBIE….
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TIPS
7.35 Uttox
Wicked Spice – 1 point win – 11/1 -12/1 NR
This looks a decent chase for the time of year and in truth probably one of those you should just watch – but rarely can I leave alone a race like this! This is the one that jumped out at the prices for a few reasons…
He is unexposed as a chaser and runs in a handicap chase for the first time, having had 3 novice chases where he didn’t do much – the question is whether he was ever in those to do anything, bar as an education. The first he was PU in Heavy ground and in the next he completed in his own time (rated OR127) He then had a 3 month break (rested for a good ground summer campaign maybe) and again in his last race completed in his own time.
He is a C3 winning hurdler off effectively 120 (when deducting claim) and runs off 117 here. In handicapping terms, were he to transfer that ability, he is clearly well weighted. And, as a hurdler, he did show he had ability. There is every chance he puts up a much better show on his first handicap chase.
Then there are connections. Richards has only sent 11 horses here in the last 5 years, 2 have won – indeed 2/4,3 places in the last year. His stats in handicap chases when employing Craig Nichol also caught the eye – they are 7/15,11 places together. Finally Richards couldn’t be in better form – 6/13,8 places in last 30 days, 3/7, 5 places in last two weeks. Indeed his recent formline reads… 1,2,1,6,8,1,1,11,3,1,2,5,1.(most recent this end)
This horse also gets cheekpieces for the first time which may help (not necessarily a positive but he is doing something different – they could sharpen him up and they are not as restricting as other headgear) and he is a hold up horse- usually that isn’t something I am mad keen on but there is so much pace on paper in this.
There are 6 horses who like to lead and get on with it, another who likes to press the pace. Unless the jockeys come to some sort of agreement I will be shocked if anything is able to dictate here – they could all cut each others throats, or at least go a pace on this ground that finds out a few in the jumping department.
So, hopefully you can see why I liked his chance at a double figure price. I wouldn’t have taken single odds I don’t think just because he does need to step up and there is a chance he just doesn’t like chasing. But equally, there are numerous reasons (1st time hncp chase,headgear,trainer form/track,jockey form,pace,hurdle form/ability,unexposed chaser,2nd run after break) why he may improve past the odds. I was happy to have a stab and just hope we get a run for our money. The market may well guide as to that.
Of the rest. Well, you could make a case for plenty. Creepy would have a chance maybe, and has been dropped a lot in the handicap but that’s because his form tailed off. His chase win was a small field novice where he was able to dictate – he jumped brilliantly that day – i can still picture it – but he wont get an uncontested lead here. The trainer isn’t firing on all cylinders and his last three runs were poor. A ground excuse LTO maybe, but the Wetherby run two starts before that was poor, in what looked ideal conditions. 7s was ok, but not jumping out at me for one who clearly thinks about the game sometimes and may need everything to drop right. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won, but I could say that about nearly all of them. He has won fresh before.
Brownville is effectively 13lb higher than that last win and needs to step forward again, on ground that may not suit. His best form has been with cut and he may find this happening too quickly. He may not, but that is my reading of it. He is in form, progressive, yard in form – so ticks a lot of boxes. 6s is ok.
Ever So Much has won a couple of weak races well the last twice, further improving his record when the money is down and sent off 4/1 or shorter. This will be much tougher and stamina is an unknown – but an unknown rather than an unproven. Happy to leave him at the odds but he also gets the favourable pace set up and is clearly in rude health. Butlergrove King is in form but he also likes to dominate and surely that won’t be happening. His recent form entitles him to be there abouts and the trainer is in form – but he does need to pull out more, he cant just repeat his last two runs.
I backed Double Silver LTO in what looked a perfect opportunity – she was awful, plodding around, not picking up, running at one pace. Clearly I will be annoyed if she dots up here and is a tempting price. But, the trainer isn’t exactly firing and I don’t know if she will have the gears around here, on decent ground. Her jumping is still a bit iffy at times also. The cliff is in the distance with this one, and that is where it will remain. This race looks more competitive than the last two also.
I don’t think I can have the rest but the other Jonjo runner is in the ‘could be anything’ category as a chaser but his hurdles form isn’t much to shout about and was poor LTO and also has a 210 day break to overcome. Dancing Shadow hasnt done enough for me and looked to get outpaced around Exeter, which would be a concern here. He may just plug on. But he is in some sort of form- 0/5,2p as a chaser. Forever My Friend has big stamina questions – almost proving that he doesnt stay – 0/14,4 places 2m6f +. He has a decent record fresh but I would think there are stronger stayers in here- famous last words. Big Sound won this race last year and is in ok form, although had everything go right the last day – he does jump to the left so back here will help and he gets 7lb taken off – and the jockey is doing ok, I wouldn’t let her be the reason to put you off. But, he needs more I think and in any case 6s looks fair, rather than over generous, to my ,at times questionable, value eye. Artic Ben is 12, I will applaud if he wins – but not in this field – but he provides yet more front running pace. Master Rajeem does best in weak races at Sedgfield albeit my gut says he may be overpriced here. But, the trainer isn’t firing and this looks much the most competitive chase he has raced in and possibly has stamina questions in a field this size, that will go quick, and that he won’t be able to dominate.
This looks sure to be a fascinating race. Hopefully it is clear the selection is travelling well early and gets into a good rhythm. He should put up a better show here all things considered and the price was just too tempting for me.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
(the racing gods continue to look unfavorably on the systems,glimpses of hope with Carrs winner on Monday,the 13 losers in a row- 9 of which have come 2nd or 3rd)
Other
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
2.20 Notts: Jimenez 3rd 4/1
Varian Fillies/Mares (25/1<)
3.05 Newb: Toumar NR
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
4.00 Nott: First Excel (any odds) UP
4.10 Newb: Black Out (6/1<) DNQ WON 20/1 (stats of 2/54,13p -18 with those over 6/1, inc 0/24 in 2014,0/5 this season before this run- albeit some TTP users may have found him given Hannon’s stats in 3yo only handicaps. Always unpleasant when they go in but they are hard to find and you cant back all his handicappers here blind and come out in front)
5.35 Nott: Little Choosey (any odds) 3rd 9/2>7/2 (awful to watch for backers, 3 furlongs of traffic,no blame on jockey there,one of those things)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing today.
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Post Complete
40 Responses
Josh, you know your flat horse profiles that you did – will you be notifying us when they’re running on the blog?
Yep – when they get their conditions. I wont mention every time they run simply for time purposes. They are all in the tracker, and of course you can add them to yours if you so wish. But, my aim is to highlight them when running, as I did with the appleby one the other week, before he was withdrawn. Nothing else has run in ‘ideal’ conditions since. Have been finding a few more also.
good stuff. i anticipate our first qualifier!
I seem to have winners when I dont post here and losers when I do so trying to break the cycle.
Creepy looks like a cracking bet in the 19:35 at Uttoxeter. Handicapper has dropped him 13 lbs since his last run. He runs very well fresh and needs good ground so I would ignore his last run. Now 10lbs below his last winning run. Trainer is 3/12, 5 places at the track in Chases over the past 2 years (I belive going by the stats thats all in the summer)
Other three I like are Etania Uttoxeter 20:05, All The Rage Nottingham 17:05, Highlife Dancer Nottingham 17:35
nice one Nick – I have the same problem about not posting my winners on here! Will have a look at Creepy
I fancy another in the 8.05: Dazzling Rita, a Sam Drake improver who I’ve been waiting to back. I’m with you in hoping the Mulholland favourite doesnt get the trip
Yeah that’s my thought also since if he does we are likely fighting for the minor honours.
Nottingham 4.00 EXOTIC GUEST Should be ready to win. Dropped to Class 6. 8/1
noted that one and Explain in the 3.25 both have high draw which can be a bonus!
excellent logic with WICKED SPICE hope it wins, one bit of local info – we had 60-90 minutes of torrential rain in that part of Staffordshire around 6pm last night although it was localised, bad enough to take Sky off air for best part of an hour. If they had been watering ground could be on soft side of good but as rain was forecast night before (did not materialise) I would anticipate almost perfect Good ground with the sting taken out of it…
Cheers Ian – ah I would be rather wealthy if logic always won out haha – he looked to have an interesting profile and should do something over fences at some point you would think- yep shouldn’t be worse than Good, so shouldn’t be too many excuses on that front. He handles good to soft also I think.
Cheers Josh. I’ve followed you in at the 12s now available. For info, Andy Holding (William Hill radio pundit) has put up Big Sound (tipped at 7s) on his Oddschecker column, based on his Uttoxeter June / July form figures of 2211…not bad, and money coming now.
Yep he has a chance and is in form – and maybe he doesn’t have to lead. Provided he goes a sensible pace he wont be far away. You can make a case for a few. And Andy is a very good judge.
Not a race to go crazy over (Class 6 stakes, 16 runners 3 places), the 6.00 Yar, but I couldnt resist leaving Capital Gearing at 14/1 who caught the eye LTO staying on from way out back, still pulling away at the end when unridden. Drawn in stall 2 so will hopefully be able to travel a lesser distance today
Nottingham 16:00-Exotic Guest 8/1 Ruth Carr
very good draw nr15
best HG
I’m backing Double silver Josh 😉
Well given how things have been going, generally, she will probably romp to victory!! Does have pace to aim at. I really hope she doesn’t.
Spice a non-runner mate 🙁
Ah I do enjoy when that happens, a good 1.5 hours I will never get back haha. Brilliant.
Sorry about that Josh. It was excellent analysis as always and leaves us wondering what might have been
cheers Ben – yep that approach/thinking pays long term in that race type (well, it has,and my thinking is improving all the time- bar the odd Dreamsoftheartre debacle!) – annoying as at this time of year those races of choice dont come along very often.
Must remember to add it to the tracker tonight for when it runs next.
yep – interestingly none of the non-runners have affected the race set up – am intrigued to see how the 5/6 front runners play it – may all approach the first too quickly! I will leave the race – never a good move to go searching for something else.
Well one of the front runners is out but yeah still a lot. I don’t think Creepy needs to lead but we shall see what they do. I am happy to leave what I have since also on from one of my tipsters on Butlergrove King which in fairness has come from a hot race with the 1st and 4th winning since. Guess we shall see what happens. Will be keeping an eye on my phone this evening.
Dr Drey 1645 Newbury, good price ew, at 29s?
I’ll be on.
For you late night punters I hear Equally Fast is expected to go well in the 8.45 at Haydock, 11/1.
Julia Feilden has a good record in the 5.45 at Newbury and runs Silver Alliance today, 14/1.
Silver alliance in the 1715. Thanks MC
Hi Josh,
Hi Josh I have Little Windmill 17.30 Utox. qualifer from summer jumps workable price 7.1 To Martin tide is turning.
i am in Potternello 4:30 Not 8/1
Jimmy Guest
and Johnny B Goode 4:55 Yar
Hi All
Certainly like the look of SWISS CROSS today 4.55 Yarmouth,
Running in a C6 for the first time on turf on a mark of 64 last win was off 82 2 years ago
Mark has dropped significantly since October and was very unlucky last time out at Lingfield (AW) off the same mark 9 days ago.
Is up a furlong but has won over 7f on turf looks good to me good luck.
won off 86 2 years ago
BOOM,, BLACKOUT 20/1 winner. Nice one Josh. I know it says 6/1 but I couldn’t resist at 20s.
EUROs, FRANCE or Italy to win………. Janko of Austria top goals scorer. Payet ,, Player of the Tournament.
Good stuff Mike glad you had a nibble! And price always a guide- he has bigger priced winners, just hard to find – but find one of them you have. I had that sinking feeling as I saw him loom up, jockey unmoved!
lol..me too Josh…..more 2nds and 3rds I’m afraid.
Well done Mike.
Iceland to win,Slovakia in semifinal,
WEll done Pab…..JBG….done you well…
so close to win double
Look now i dnt have time,poor internet,so i more more use that free service,maybe you know what cty is
TOT is not most important
thanks that service i had two 5/1 at AYR nd 8/1 at Pont,and today winner ad even yesterday maiden
http://www.infineform.com/
hi pab what do u look for in that service. do u mean tot is not important?
not most important
best you look results for few days and compare with ratings,ive been using that for first look to fnd horses on race cards