I managed to catch the Al Co race as I was walking into my local town, via the local Coral. After the first two fences that wasn’t in much doubt – a couple of slow jumps down the back – but as Loose Chips and the Vaughan horse went at it from the front there was only going to be one outcome as he sat just behind. That was as confident as I have been on a horse for a while – everything really did look spot on. Those bets tend to come to you and I shouldn’t try and force it. Corrin Wood – well the poor old boy looks gone at the game as everything was right on paper for an improved run. He will keep dropping down and one day they may get him back and he will win a C3 chase on the bridle,maybe.
I am going to steal a phrase from ‘The Gambler’ who has named us all ‘Team RTP’ – which I quite like – and I was just pleased that I could contribute. An annoying R4 but still just over +9 points on the race. The systems added another +10.5 points to the pot – so a decent +19.5 points for ‘the portfolio’ if backing everything to 1 point stakes/advised stakes. That is how quickly things can change. I think everything was -12 points going into yesterday, for the month, and now we are on +7.5 points. (that doesn’t include the +14 points from the May Trainer that I am not counting due to the late research/posting,but I know some of you were on) Hopefully we can continue to go the right way in the latter half of the month.
Along with all of your comments, Team RTP is not doing too badly 🙂
Nothing today- that 6.30 Uttox looks tricky – the fav does look to have a very good chance against quite a lot of disappointing types who have questions to answer. Set List is interesting for Lavelle and some money for that may be significant after a break,unexposed but maybe lacking in experience for a chase of this nature. Happy to sit it out.
May Trainer (16/1<)
1.50 Newm – Bertiewhittle UP (close 4th,race developed on side away from him,was a run of an inform/well handicapped horse,turn may not be far away but will always need plenty of luck in running,inc a clear run,collapse in pace and drawn right side where pace is- so, not asking for much!!)
1.55 Bangor: Dalby Spook (12/1) UP
Varian Fillies: 5.05 Newb – Nezwaah (25/1<) 3rd 13/2
2.50 Thirsk – Torrid (28/1<) UP (not one to criticise jockeys really and I forget the last time I ever thought about how much i had just lost on a horse,but from that draw you have two choices – go forwards and try to get across,or drop in and take your medicine – he did neither and was stuck 4/5 wide around a sweeping bend. Game over. Line through that one, very hard/impossible to win doing that unless you are on a very classy horse with a bit in hand. Ran as if in some kind of form though)
3.00 Newm – Poyle Thomas (16/1<) 2nd, shoulder 10/1>17/2 (heartbreak there – I am possibly Spencer’s biggest fan and if he was on this one I think the day may have been paid for. Worth watching just to see the difference in riding styles. Our one all whip,not much arm action. Spencer- no whip,strong hands and heels. Class. Our jockey,and one on Torrid,are still learning their trade though, no problems there)
3.25 Thirsk – Hanseatic (28/1<) UP
4.30 Newb – Danehill Kodiac (6/1<) DNQ
5.35 Newb – Hail Clodius (6/1<)
8.15 Donny – Royale Connoisseur (16/1<)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Bond Bombshell NR /Ponty Royale – have put those two up in my Daily Punt column – trainer/jockey combo stats from my guide. If you are on their list you should be emailed around 10,will try and post link when I get it.
Some none stats based horses that caught the eye. I have used geegeez gold and the instant expert tab to see what stands out, with my eyes focussed on handicappers that are below their last mark and may have conditions to suite. So, some analysis,but still not the amount I would do if ‘tipping’ a horse…
4.15 Bangor – Mighty Missle 7/2 3rd and Tidal Way 8/1 Fell- stand out here. The former is obvious and if ready to go may take all the beating. The latter won over CD off 116 in Oct 2013 for Charlie Longsdon- today he races off 101 with the claim. He returned to some form last time out and looked interesting at the odds.
4.35- Barkston Ash -UP- an outlier for this section – I am mentioning him because I tipped him LTO where he got collared late. He has everything in his favour again here. He could bag the rail and he will look like the winner entering the final furlong I think. I have had a stab to try and get those losses back! As always now though,he is open to attack from younger legs.
5.15 Newm – Doctor Parkes – 16/1 – doesn’t look a 16/1 shot here to my eyes. He is now very well handicapped and his trainer has really hit form in recent days. He will also relish this ground and maybe the drop back to 5 is what will make the difference – he ran well enough LTO, not beaten too far. He has a good record when making a quick return also. He has the Channon horse his side to take him into the race and I couldn’t resist a nibble, albeit I am still feeling my way in with these sprint handicaps.
That is all for this section today.
That is all for today.
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016
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