UPDATE: A poor day tipping wise – clearly I should have taken it off! Awful. No sort of run from any of them. I will just move on from that. One of those days. Poor old Golden Chieftan – the moral winner – I would never have picked him for that given the race profile, his exposed nature and his hard run LTO. FireBird Flyer – a solid EW bet for the race based on his recent staying form but I expected an unexposed one to take this, but it was a day for historical trends/stats to be busted. Thankfully Nicky Henderson rescued my day with a 10/1 winner for the micro systems.
I believe that leaves March on +2.5 points to date.
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I will be taking Sunday off, and am not going to bother looking at any cards. Just the micros…
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Jumps Handicappers
3.40 Ffos Las – Never Say Never (12/1<)
3.55 Carl – Anay Turge (12/1<)
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Enjoy your Sunday.
Josh
9 Responses
Should Firth of the Clyde be included in the micro systems in the 3.55
or is it just class 3+4
Can’t win them all Josh. We’re in it for the long term.
Josh
If my memory serves me well is Harry the Viking and Scotswell not losers from the past? 3.55 Carlisle. Could have a bit of fun money on these 2.
Hi Josh,
Just a quick reflection on the Midlands National, and sorry if im pointing out the blindingly obvious to you
Firebird Flyer (although not really the rightful winner of the race) only very narrowly stretched the profile for the race, I believe. For example, had 4 handicap chase wins (their record: 15 runs, 0 wins, 3 places). 20% of these placed, which says to me that this stat isn’t going to stop a horse from running a good race. So Firebird shouldn’t have been discounted on these kinds of figures, especially when only just missing out on the ideal profile. I do however take responsibility for not backing him myself, especially given his running-on form in the Welsh National
I prefer a stats profile with a bit more ‘wiggle room’ to allow for these slight anomalies.
Maybe a good approach would be to have one good profile horse and one stat buster who has interesting form. Warwick Classic Chase springs to mind, where we had Foxbridge, a perfect stats fit and then Russe (who perhaps busted a few trends? not sure though), both of whom ran a cracker
The winner of any race is the winner, irrespective of good luck, luck evens itself out and it was no fault of FF that Golden Chieftan fell, jumping is the name of the game.
I use a service that consistently preaches the logic of “proven stamina” and if you look at that logic in the context of the MGN only FF and Shotgun Paddy had been placed over a trip anywhere close to 4 miles….it is a simple but effective rule.
I was lucky to be on FF but I’m sure I’ll lose one in similar fashion very soon, its all swings and roundabouts.
Although not a strict micro angle,i had to back firth of the clyde,he was a going away winner last time out,these veteran races are a bit curious,would have thought they would be average 12/15 year olds,but a 10 yr old is hardly a veteran
David Pipe’s Dell Arca – one for Notebook me thinks?
Just been doing my figures for Cheltenham & noticed his standout 10lb clear top-rated rpr in the Martin Pipe cj h’cap but didn’t run at the meet at all. Could be being freshened up for Aintree or Punchestown & would prefer a 2m h’cap?
very interesting and thank you gone in the notebook, I do think that whereas Aintree used to be an “after thought” after Cheltenham that in the past 5 years it has become more of a genuine “Festival” and not just about one race, and more trainers have started to aim horses there as a plot..