Re-cap – a solid if unspectacular day… +4 points if taking 28s, just over +5 if getting 33s. (recorded in results at 28s) Poor old Bertie – To put it bluntly, I think he would have won had he not tried to take the same fence with him twice – very odd. Bar that one fence that was the best I had seen him jump -I think today was meant to be the day, given how that first error didnt appear to affect him at all – and the way Dickie sat disconsolately on the turf – that error came just as he was starting to make a move. But, he fell, so that is irrelevant. He will win another chase at that level and his next few starts should be noted. Spice Fair – not really sure what Hutch was up to – he took an awful long time to ask his mount and I was confident he would stay up that hill- whether it made a difference I don’t know, but if had tried to close a lot sooner we may have had more excitement. But, that was like a 6/1 winner and I am pleased my big field ’33/1 shot eyes’ picked out the right one at that end of the market. That bodes well, with any luck!
Total for March (tips) stands at: -0.5 points.
What a week we have ahead – it’s as near to perfection as it gets for me – Cheltenham, book-ended by two long distance chases, one tomorrow and then the Midlands National next Saturday. It will be a fun few days, whatever happens.
Hopefully I can boost the Cheltenham coffers…
3.40 Warw –
Loughalder – 1.5 points win -12/1 (BV/PP) 11/1-10/1 general
I will keep this ‘fairly’ short as it is a Saturday evening and I have had enough of this computer screen. Rest assured I have been thorough…
I have been waiting for this horse to come out again since his last run when we backed him, and he ran poorly. He slipped on the bend that day, which combined with possibly being outpaced, led to him looking unsettled and being pulled up. But, he ticks every box here. I think he won this race two years ago – or one very similar here – off the same mark. He won as he pleased that day. In this race last year he was less impressive but didn’t come into it in much form.
Simply, he ticks every ‘profile’ box. He relished the mud, stays every yard of this trip, has CD form, is back down to 108 (was raised to 122 at his height) and this is his class level. It is all about whether he is on song. He has been freshened up no doubt, and has a decent record after similar breaks. The trainer is also in form (which he wasn’t from memory when last backed). If he runs his race (the usual caveat!) then he will out-run these odds. He is usually a sound jumper and he will be handy. There are a few that like to get on with it but he does’t have to win from the front. I think he may just get the lead and be able to dictate. We know the jockey likes this CD (Russe Blancs pilot).
So, all boxes are ticked – just a case of whether something making their way up the ratings can catch him for me. I have to take Streets of Promise on at 11/4 – she has won weak races, has a big weight and steps up massively in trip. She may sluice up, but I wont be backing her and am content to take her on. Krackatoa King and Ballyrath are the interesting ones – i wont be shocked if either grinds this out given their profiles, running styles and in the case of the latter, his trainer (and his approach with this type) But, they are both very scrappy jumpers and this is a stiffer jumping test than either Wincanton or Huntingdon. Yes they are still learning but in this big field, at what could be decent pace, means I have question marks. With clear rounds, they may go close. Of course they also have to prove themselves in a test like this also. For one reason or another I am content to take on the rest. None of the other more exposed runners are standing out to me.
This looks likely to be a slog, and at his best we have a well handicapped proven slogger, who looks likely to be spot on for this.
K Lee Chasers (12/1 or shorter)
2.30 War: Aces Over Eights
3.40 War: Incentivise
That will be all. Enjoy your Sunday.