Re-cap – a solid if unspectacular day… +4 points if taking 28s, just over +5 if getting 33s. (recorded in results at 28s) Poor old Bertie – To put it bluntly, I think he would have won had he not tried to take the same fence with him twice – very odd. Bar that one fence that was the best I had seen him jump -I think today was meant to be the day, given how that first error didnt appear to affect him at all – and the way Dickie sat disconsolately on the turf – that error came just as he was starting to make a move. But, he fell, so that is irrelevant. He will win another chase at that level and his next few starts should be noted. Spice Fair – not really sure what Hutch was up to – he took an awful long time to ask his mount and I was confident he would stay up that hill- whether it made a difference I don’t know, but if had tried to close a lot sooner we may have had more excitement. But, that was like a 6/1 winner and I am pleased my big field ’33/1 shot eyes’ picked out the right one at that end of the market. That bodes well, with any luck!
Total for March (tips) stands at: -0.5 points.
***
What a week we have ahead – it’s as near to perfection as it gets for me – Cheltenham, book-ended by two long distance chases, one tomorrow and then the Midlands National next Saturday. It will be a fun few days, whatever happens.
Hopefully I can boost the Cheltenham coffers…
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TIP
3.40 Warw –
Loughalder – 1.5 points win -12/1 (BV/PP) 11/1-10/1 general
I will keep this ‘fairly’ short as it is a Saturday evening and I have had enough of this computer screen. Rest assured I have been thorough…
I have been waiting for this horse to come out again since his last run when we backed him, and he ran poorly. He slipped on the bend that day, which combined with possibly being outpaced, led to him looking unsettled and being pulled up. But, he ticks every box here. I think he won this race two years ago – or one very similar here – off the same mark. He won as he pleased that day. In this race last year he was less impressive but didn’t come into it in much form.
Simply, he ticks every ‘profile’ box. He relished the mud, stays every yard of this trip, has CD form, is back down to 108 (was raised to 122 at his height) and this is his class level. It is all about whether he is on song. He has been freshened up no doubt, and has a decent record after similar breaks. The trainer is also in form (which he wasn’t from memory when last backed). If he runs his race (the usual caveat!) then he will out-run these odds. He is usually a sound jumper and he will be handy. There are a few that like to get on with it but he does’t have to win from the front. I think he may just get the lead and be able to dictate. We know the jockey likes this CD (Russe Blancs pilot).
So, all boxes are ticked – just a case of whether something making their way up the ratings can catch him for me. I have to take Streets of Promise on at 11/4 – she has won weak races, has a big weight and steps up massively in trip. She may sluice up, but I wont be backing her and am content to take her on. Krackatoa King and Ballyrath are the interesting ones – i wont be shocked if either grinds this out given their profiles, running styles and in the case of the latter, his trainer (and his approach with this type) But, they are both very scrappy jumpers and this is a stiffer jumping test than either Wincanton or Huntingdon. Yes they are still learning but in this big field, at what could be decent pace, means I have question marks. With clear rounds, they may go close. Of course they also have to prove themselves in a test like this also. For one reason or another I am content to take on the rest. None of the other more exposed runners are standing out to me.
This looks likely to be a slog, and at his best we have a well handicapped proven slogger, who looks likely to be spot on for this.
***
MICRO SYSTEMS
Other
K Lee Chasers (12/1 or shorter)
2.30 War: Aces Over Eights
3.40 War: Incentivise
***
That will be all. Enjoy your Sunday.
21 Responses
Cloudly Too Suzi Smith at Kelso 14:55 14/1
Great work Josh, can’t wait for Tuesday! Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Have to concur with Loughalder – just also picked up online tips from one of the Tipsters I emailed you about a few weeks ago in a private e-mail, he has assessed top 3 in the race as bottom 3 on the card; but like you pins mast to Loughalder; in favour of Emma Soda and Incentivise and does not think favourite will stay well enough….promising that when you both pick the same horse it generally runs very well…so good luck to you both, I’m on at 12/1…
Maggio should run well in the 2.55 at kelso,loves the course and at 20/1 might be worth a small interest
Warwick Result
18 Mar 2015
EMMA SODA won this race off 2lb higher on soft in 2013, and shaped encouragingly for a repeat when fifth at Exeter 15 days beforehand. She raced prominently throughout, jumping well, and moved readily into the lead as her stamina kicked in two out. She ultimately ran out a decisive winner on a course she clearly relishes.
Warwick Result
20 Mar 2013 Emma Soda 1st @25/1; beat Loughalder by 2L; Emma Soda has three wins in March.
A marathon test in desperately testing conditions and it produced a slow-motion finish with the rank outsider, EMMA SODA getting up on the run-in to gain the first win of her career.
QUOTES: Winning trainer, Paul Davies: “Emma Soda has bled the last twice which is why she´s been pulled-up. I´ve had her since she was three and these are her conditions.”
Not this race bud 18th March 2015 a Wednesday:
YEAR WINNER AGE WGT SP TRAINER JOCKEY RPR
2015 Carli King 9 11-9 33/1 Caroline Bailey Adam Pogson 145
2014 Loughalder 8 10-12 5/1 Matt Sheppard Charlie Poste 123
2013 Bally Sands 9 9-12 5/1 Robin Mathew Ed Cookson 114
2012 Trigger The Light 11 11-6 4/1 Alan King Wayne Hutchinson 126
2011 Justabout 8 10-1 9/1 Colin Tizzard Dave Crosse 108
2010 Fine By Me 11 10-6 9/2 Julian Smith Gerard Tumelty 117
2009 Keenan’s Future 8 11-1 7/2 Ian Williams Michael Murphy 131
2008 Fine By Me 9 10-6 15/8F Julian Smith Paul Moloney 120
2007 Bannister Lane 7 11-4 4/1 Donald McCain Paddy Aspell 123
2006 Coursing Run 10 11-2 3/1 Henry Daly Richard Johnson 122
PAB
The problem with Cloudy Too; IMO; is that he has been out of form since 2014, the two at the top of the market will take some beating.
Nevertheless, an interesting investigation of J Hales ensued, the teletubbies man who owns Unioniste, Al Ferof, etc..
Unioniste fell 5th fence Grand National 2015 though he had good form Aintree and I think that this is Paul Nicholls main beast for the GN.
Best price, Stan James/Hills 33/1, elsewhere 25/1 and even Betfair is only a couple of points above best.
Thanks for the heads-up.
i’ve been considering Unioniste’s chances as well for a while now. may be it’s an affective thing though, as in im willing on deja vu to occur (think neptune collonges)
but back to the less woolly logic: he appears to be getting his jumping game together, judging by Kelso run latest
I’ve had to go with Incentivise 14/s with Betfair SB – trainer & jockey stats too good for 14/s, I know he’s 13 but it says in Racing Post Analysis after his last run ‘that there might be another race in the old boy yet.’
Your horse may have best cdg stats but this one way best overall cdg figs (that’s topspeed figs/pretty even using rpr’s) & highest last time out figure & only horse in race to clock a topspeed above his OR.
Same. Had to put a point on Incentivise. The TJ stats are too good to ignore. Just have to think the Lees are plotting a big run when they get Jamie in the saddle. Rode him to a win last time he was on board if im not mistaken.
Nothing on Emma Soda, so will watch from behind the sofa if she’s up there come the straight
Well done Josh, an inspired selection at a great price.
money for loughalder 15/2 now on at 11/1 ew
The power of a few highly respected tipsters (including Josh) as I indicated last night, has clearly seen a fair amount of money on in the always fragile early Sunday betting markets.
Stuart Coltherd.- I noticed last season that he looks a trainer to keep ’em peeled for at this time of year.
He seems to gear his horses to a Spring campaign and has had three winners in the past week. Does well in handicap Hurdles and Chases in the North and Scotland. Has four runners at Kelso today. Since 2011 in March/April/May in NH Handicaps he is 19/78 @ 24.56% + £40.
Hi Josh
I didn,t see the Spice Fair race but he does need to be held up off a strong pace if he hits the front too soon he will idle , I understand the ground was heavy at Sandown which wouldn’t of been ideal for him either although he does go on it . I have followed this horse from day one as I am a lifelong friend of one of the owners and Spice can be frustrating at times as he travels into his races so well . Just my thoughts
Regards
Iain
Hi Iain…agree completely and that is why he was a bet, given the strong pace, stamina over further. i suspect he may not have been able to go any quicker at certain parts of race and appreciate the ground wasn’t ideal…just thought jockey may have given him a chance to idle! but maybe he just couldnt close any quicker than that in that ground. nice EW return and that is racing. hopefully they find a hurdle for him as ground dries out.
Andy Silvers
Thanks Andy, it was a Class 4, not Class 3, Emma Soda has three hits in March.
She jumps, stays and will relish the ground so I certainly wont be putting anyone off her. At his best I think the selection is a better horse and could have more in hand if running his race. If he doesnt, wouldnt be total shock to see her plodding on when others have given up. this is a much better race than her last two races mind and she should need to step forward again – lightly raced for age though. GL
You’re welcome, I was a bit worried about ES but Kerry Lee, well, she sure brought out the best in a well h’capped oldie?
Top Gamble for the Ryanair?
We are at our base for the week at the Holiday inn, Gloucester. We went over the pub next door earlier for a Sunday lunch and a cheeky pint or two. We were talking to a guy who works for Betway and he was saying that he was on course on Saturday setting up their outlet and the going was soft but was drying out each day. We are going down to the course tomorrow to have a wander around and the shops and the Centaur will be open. We will have a wander along the course and see for ourselves. I will report back tomorrow. Watching Man U struggle against those mugs from the east end now but will likely nod off! Cheers