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The Cheltenham Preview evening near Aintree was good fun last night. A big thanks to Jim, who is a reader of this blog. I met up wit him and a few of his friends and he even paid for me to get in! So cheers. I also won a prize on the raffle – two tickets to a Haydock meeting of my choice (bar ‘premium’ race days and Music nights). Definitely worth the trip 🙂
Anyway, it was interesting and there were a few things I took away that I will highlight in a post soon. (I won’ be backing any horse on the back of their observations, but some interesting points made) Ben Pauling and Charlie Longsdon were very engaging and informative. You can tell they are deep thinkers about their horses and know their stuff.
TIPS
No Tips Today. Quite content to leave that Newcastle race well alone, nothing jumping out at me.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
All micro system research can be viewed HERE>>
Jumps Handicappers
2.35 Exet – Calin Du Brizais (12/1<) DNQ
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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing really catching the eye today.
Having said that, Renard caught my eye in 4.10 Exeter but he is a bit short. He should find this level much easier and is 5/9, 6 places at C3 or below in handicap chases, 4/10 returning within 15 days, 4/10, 8 places when 4/1 or shorter. 2/4 when top weight in handicap chases. It also looks like he could get loose on the front end here, and if Coleman is aggressive with him he could get this lot at it. This is weaker than the last C3 he contested a few starts ago (could also have been feeling Sandown run there) and his last two races have been a decent level. He could lead them a merry dance, but then again is always open to being attacked by something making its way up the ladder. If he got near 7/2 I may be tempted to have a nibble.
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That is all for today.
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19 Responses
Josh, is not the 2.35 at Exeter a 3 M handicap chase, albeit for novices? Sonny the One looks solid, albeit at 2/1.
I have just read the nagnagnag Cheltenham blog including you and Matt B. good little piece. As a serious punter I like to try to win non competitive races. My week at Cheltenham is spent with my ‘Cousins from Ireland’. I have to do my research before I go to the Cotswolds as my cousins, being south London Irish, enjoy a drink and a sing song etc. and so don’t have much time for sleeping. So I go with a plan and do not bet big on most races. The nag blog gave such advice and this works well at Cheltenham I find, especially after steady Guinness drinking.
It is indeed but in general I try and avoid novice handicap chases. That is just personal preference. Yes I am going to think long and hard about my Cheltenham strategy and agree that enjoyment is the aim of the game. Many easier races to win money on throughout the year. Having said that, it is the ultimate test and I like to try and solve the many puzzles,but you have to be careful. It is very challenging coming out in front.
Agree totally Martin,the most important thing is to enjoy the spectacle of the best horses in the world coming together,have a few small bets,after all there will be racing again on Saturday too,its the bread and butter racing that defines your overall profit for year,a 10/1 winner at Sedgefield pays the same as Cheltenham.Being irish its pretty much obligatory to have a bet on the races,the country more or less comes to a standstill from flag rise on tuesday
Now that Victor Dartnall has emerged from a cold spell,i like Tolkeins Tango in the 4.10 at 10/1 if all is well with him
Hi Josh,
A couple of points u may care to answer….
If 3m Chases are your speciality over the sticks,what are u going to be concentrating on for this coming Flat season??
Also-do u or does anybody here ever listen to Rory Delargy?
He’s sometimes on WHill radio-and imho is a very astute judge.
Good luck at Chelt everybody-enjoy great days racing-the envy of the world!
Hi Mick…
Flat – well I am a sucker for a sprint handicap – and I just love those 20+ runner straight course cavalry charges, 5-7f – so, all the heritage handicaps etc will get plenty of attention – trends/stats/pace analysis etc – plenty of 1 point EW bets on 20/1+ shots.
Small field pace analysis also – trying to find front runners that may stay out. I will also be doing some research on 5+6f sprints – stats/micro angles/trainers..
and finally, I like horse profiling on the flat – did ok last season,but could be better. I will be trying to find a team of class/ratings droppers to follow – we just track them and wait for them to drop into a class/ratings band where they always seem to run well. There are a few of them about.
So, there is some kind of strategy and approach there!
Rory – yes he is very well respected – and runs a very good tipping service I believe along with one other ‘The Racing Consultants’. Yes, he is very astute.
Yeah, Mick. He runs the Racing Consultants service with David Massey…very good tipsters, had a fantastic 2015.
Paul
My on 14-35 can be Minella On Line if 5/1 or higher
and speculative Rendl Beach if above 20/1 ev
but not so sure for that
good bet can be Bladoun 9/1 2:00 EXETER
My Trainer to watch today is Phillip Kirby…will have a small e/w treble on Eastview Boy at Newcastle and on Lexington Bay and Quadringa at Southwell.
Josh
I went with Total Asset in the Newcastle race just because you tipped it and it went down last time., Lucky punt I hope.
Lucinda Russell is in better form now than she was then too.
Ah, Preent Flight is the Lucinda Russell horse Sorry. Ran on the same day as Total Assets last time but in a different race.
Yep – there are a few in there that have questions to answer now, and the fav does look the most open to progress. Maybe Total Assets just had an off day last time – think the bigger weight may have contributed, but was happy to leave here. I was struggling to get enthusiastic about any of them. The Hammond horse won this last year – had a nibble on him at big prices LTO also- but three PUs now has to be off putting – albeit I think he is happiest when leading. If money started to come that would catch my eye.
I like the look of Celtic Thunder. I think the Irish yard may have come over for a gamble. Brian Hughes booked. Tonguetie added today to cheekpieces that are normallyy worn (but weren’t worn last time out only ten days ago in a point. This is first run n a handicap chase.
8/1 best price available at the moment for Celtic Thunder. Will the horse get backed as the day goes on?
I thought Tikkandemickey was too big a price this morning at 12/1 (now only 6/1) as I have his profile as
GTS and softer ground, Class 4 and 5 races,Ridden by Mr C Bewley, DF Bourke. Racing in March to November
5 wins from 7 runs (1123111) producing a profit of 25.25 points
Loved this comment from a racing service that I use; this morning.
The context was “corruption in sport” from Governing Bodies like FIFA; IAAF;IOC and WADA in the light of Maria Sharapova being banned for taking an over the Counter medicine. The writer was deriding Nike for “suspending” Sharapova sponsorship while renewing Justin Gatlin….he is no fan of the BHA but labels them incompetent rather than corrupt….but this little ditty made me smile-:
“I would liken WADA actions to the BHA banning Paul Nicholls for giving a horse a drink of
clean water and a Polo Mint, whilst ignoring the figure of Nicky Henderson in the background;
holding a syringe and a phial of an unknown substance….(all hypothetical of course!!!) “
I’ve gone for sidbury hill in the 2:35 think this one has a good ew chance. Kevin Jones is 2/9 6 places when riding, 1/4 3 place in c4 races altho yet to win a chase! The cheltenham q&a was a good read not that i plan to have a bet at the festival, and gotta say Matts win with his comment on Nicholls!!! Made me chuckle that did 🙂
Pipe team seem to be hitting a bit of form at just the right time with Bladoun another example…shame Jonjo keeps flattering to deceive…