Members Report: 11/01/16 (COMPLETE)


No potential qualifiers 



3.05 Kempt – Pour Pavot (10/1) and Youre A Goat (11/1) (system rules – 14/1 or under) both go for Gary Moore and are potential qualifiers for the micro angle in my free AW report. This angle is now 17/47, 25 places since 2010 and keeps ticking along, +95 SP, +120 BFSP. Do with that information what you will – ignore them, back them blind, or use that info in your own analysis of the race/horses. Coincidentally both are making their handicap debut today – Moore is 5/22, 9 places with such runners at the track since 2009. 


That is all for today. Good luck with your Monday wagers! 


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10 Responses

  1. A lot of people fancy ‘The Goat’.Its now as low as 2/1. Is it your reputation that is moving markets Josh ?

    1. Yes, that must be the most well backed horse I have ever had a nibble at – he will obviously fall out the back of the tv now, or be too keen etc etc. I don’t think that is my reputation – given the profile of the horse, I suspect the Moore’s know what they have on their hands, and I would think there is a lot of ‘in the know, been doing well at home/on the gallops money’ – he looks likely to be well ahead of his mark – suspect he may have been tipped elsewhere but not sure! That is first horse on this blog ever I think that has been backed in that way!

  2. You’re a goat has been tipped up somewhere for sure, just managed to get 9/1 last night but missed the 16,s. 12/1 pour pavot was better lets hope one of them goes in!!!

  3. I have just watched the 3:05 Kempton. Where your fancied horses “performed”.
    Am I the only one to think there was something not right about that race ?

    1. Hi Chris – All looked fine to me – although given amount of money for one of them, surprised they ran so green. Bigger priced one didnt look like he was there to win – money may have been nothing to do with stable – once market saw being backed others naturally followed in – The Goat was just inexperienced, on and off bridle, ran on late – young horse also, with future ahead – you cant bash them about, only 4th start of his life. I can imagine he has shown a bit at home and he will win races, next couple of runs will be interesting. That is how it goes with horses like that sometimes, the inexperienced ones. Was surprisingly green given was his 4th start mind. But, that angle will pay over time. And importantly, backing 11/4 shots at 10/1 consistently will pay handsomely over time – just not today!

  4. I bow to your greater knowledge.
    Just thought that the jockey made no attempt off the final bend and placed the horse behind a wall of other horses when there was an oppotunity to take it wide. To me it meant that even when finishing strongly it had absolutely no chance of winning.

    1. Yep, I did have to watch it again – now, if that was an experienced handicapper say, then you would be a tad suspicious. But, with a horse like that, that run wasnt a total shock (and you can see from my reply to Roddo above, pre race, that I put mockers on him!)- just more of a shock due to the amount of money – but, the race course is different from the gallops. He did just run green and jockey tried to teach him to race I think,(part of which may be running him among horses) was maybe expecting him to pick up more also, but mentally not at races- he will come on for it and should be better next start. Money had to be for some kind of reason.

  5. I think when the goat gets the start and middle parts right we’l get some money back. I thought they both came out the stalls abit slow but thats racing, and following systems is all about patience 🙂

    1. Ha that made me smile, quite – getting the start and middle parts can be quite important!! Indeed, patience is the key, all about long term profit. They both ran a bit green really and should learn a lot from it. In the tracker! he will be a system bet again no doubt, but make sure you track it as that was more of a bonus today!

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