TRAINER IN FOCUS: KERRY LEE (from the archive)

An old post looking at Kerry Lee…

Below is an old post from a few months back looking at Kerry Lee. I will aim to do a few more of these when I have time as I think they go down well/may be useful, but I will leave that for you to decide…

 

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IN FOCUS: Miss Kerry Lee

There is nothing like a few recent winners to spark interest and Kerry Lee has had a couple pass the post in front in recent days. One reader of the blog, Gerry, also commented about Kerry’s decent record with chasers when Jamie Moore is up in the saddle.

So, I have decided to dig into this stable a bit more to see what I can find.

For now I am just going to look at Handicaps as the starting point. I am also going to combine Kerry’s recent record with that of her father, who officially held the licence until the summer last year. Kerry assisted her father for some time and he is still around, so I can’t think much has changed bar the name on the licence.

Having watched the odd film about their operation they are in an idyllic spot, on the ‘right’ side of the Welsh Border 🙂

The Lee’s have often spoken about how they try and keep their horses ‘sweet’ and vary their training regimes. This includes riding through woodland, through streams and all sorts. From memory the gallops are stiff and it is no surprise many appear to just keep galloping.

Anyway, let’s see what we can find.

***

Overall HANDICAP stats for ‘team Lee’.

2010-

646 bets / 84 winners / 2010 places / 13% win SR / -78.44 SP / -13.77 BFSP / AE 1.01

ODDS

  • 10/1 or under: 411 bets / 78 wins / 174 places / 18.98% SR / +40.56 SP / +82.99 BFSP / AE 1.11
  • 11/1 to 12/1: 56 bets / 2 wins / 13 places / 3.57% SR / -30 SP / AE 0.45
  • 14/1 or over: 179 bets / 4 wins / 23 places / 2.23%SR / -89 SP / AE 0.48

 

At first glance their bigger priced handicap winners are quite hard to find, albeit not impossible. But the fact that 156 or those priced 14/1 or over have finished unplaced is noteworthy. Clearly the presence of some money, or the horse having what the market considers to be a clear enough chance , is noteworthy.

 

 

 

 

For now, I will just focus on those handicappers priced 12/1 or under SP.

Hurdlers Vs Chasers (12/1< SP)

Criteria Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
Chase 353 64 18.13 18.56 142 40.23 351 18.23 5.26 53.11 15.05 23.98 1.09
Hurdle 114 16 14.04 -8 45 39.47 113 14.16 -7.02 5.08 4.46 8.86 1.01

 

Now, as you know, I like my handicap chases, the further the better. Given the above stats, and my liking for that race type, let’s dive into those.

 

Handicap Chases 12/1< SP

Let’s take a look at age first of all. It is anecdotal in my mind but I am sure they have ‘bucket loads’ of older chasers win…chasers who I would normally ignore – veterans. You will have to trust me when I say that was my memory before digging just now…

AGE

AGE Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
5 10 1 10 -6.5 5 50 -65 -6.41 -64.07 4.02 0.52
6 27 8 29.63 7 14 51.85 25.93 9.86 36.52 4.15 1.44
7 56 11 19.64 3.75 28 50 6.7 8.28 14.78 13.58 1.09
8 94 15 15.96 -4.02 33 35.11 -4.28 5.73 6.1 -8.04 0.94
9 62 11 17.74 -2.25 24 38.71 -3.63 2.6 4.19 5.24 1.14
10 42 7 16.67 -0.25 12 28.57 -0.6 3.01 7.17 -6 1.08
11 24 5 20.83 11.5 9 37.5 47.92 14.37 59.89 0.87 1.64
12 12 0 0 -12 3 25 -100 -12 -100 -4.27 0
13 8 4 50 20.83 5 62.5 260.38 25.19 314.92 5.75 3.36
14 2 1 50 11 2 100 550 13.01 650.63 6.08 6.25
15 8 1 12.5 -2.5 4 50 -31.25 -2.54 -31.69 3.35 0.79
16 6 0 0 -6 3 50 -100 -6 -100 1.24 0
17 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -100 -2 -100 -2 0

 

It is hard not to be drawn to their record with older chasers, aged 11+.

62 bets / 11 wins / 26 places / 17.74% SR / +20.83 SP / +30 BFSP / AE 1.2

They perform 20% above expectation which is decent enough, and after an 11yo went in today I believe (7/1/16) at 12/1 these stats will be improved further.

Their ability to keep these old warriors ‘sweet’ is clearly in evidence here. While I would not personally back these systematically – dealing with a very small pool of horses for starters – it is worth noting. It is illogical to be put off one of theirs who is older than 10, just on age alone.

***

Let’s look at the ‘origin of the horse’ – do they do well with GB breds best, or maybe the French horses… (still handicap chasers, 12/1<)

Criteria Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
(GB) 49 4 8.16 -32.5 13 26.53 -66.33 -32.1 -65.51 -18.13 0.48
(IRE) 207 45 21.74 49.81 89 43 24.06 73.86 35.68 25.53 1.24
(USA) 21 2 9.52 -8.5 7 33.33 -40.48 -7.03 -33.48 -3.78 0.69
(FR) 76 13 17.11 9.75 33 43.42 12.83 18.39 24.19 20.35 1.13

 

Well, for whatever reason they don’t appear to be that great at sourcing GB breds!

You could do a lot worse than just blindly backing their Irish and French breds with an SP of 12/1 or shorter, on the Exchanges say…

 

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E  
ALL 283 58 20.49 59.56 122 43.11 21.05 92.24 32.59 45.88 1.22  
2016 3 1 33.33 6 2 66.67 200 5.67 188.88 3.63 2.78  
2015 49 10 20.41 7.5 19 38.78 15.31 13.31 27.16 1.83 1.15  
2014 45 10 22.22 18.25 23 51.11 40.56 24.59 54.65 12.3 1.27  
2013 51 11 21.57 -2.52 25 49.02 -4.94 0.18 0.34 9.63 1.24  
2012 37 6 16.22 -6.5 14 37.84 -17.57 -4.51 -12.2 0.71 0.86  
2011 67 11 16.42 13.33 25 37.31 19.9 22.51 33.59 10.68 1.07  
2010 31 9 29.03 23.5 14 45.16 75.81 30.51 98.41 7.11 1.95  

 

I will go back to the starter set again (esp IRE breds) but, for now…Handicap chasers, 12/1 or under SP.

DISTANCE…

Nothing really stands out of note, not at the moment. They train winners at a good rate from 2m chases through to 3m7f to date. (0/5, 0 places 4m+)

GROUND…

You do associate their horses with being able to grind through a wet, ploughed field, and the top level going stats would support that…

 

 

 

Criteria Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
Heavy 69 16 23.19 18.31 33 47.83 26.54 25.28 36.64 17.62 1.26
Soft 94 23 24.47 41 48 51.06 43.62 55.99 59.56 28.39 1.37
Good To Yielding 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -100 -1 -100 -1 0
Good To Soft 77 11 14.29 -12.5 28 36.36 -16.23 -7.05 -9.16 2.27 0.94
Good 88 8 9.09 -41.5 22 25 -47.16 -36.73 -41.74 -28.42 0.58
Good To Firm 22 5 22.73 10.75 10 45.45 48.86 13.16 59.83 4.22 1.44
Firm 2 1 50 3.5 1 50 175 3.47 173.25 0.89 2.78

 

What I would call ‘the extremes’ appear to be interesting. The record on Heavy and Soft, and on Good to Firm/Firm is admirable.  But, they clearly have winners on all ground types .

Back to the starter set again…

CLASS…

Much like distance, nothing really to note. And, class is always a tricky one. If you can train, you can train… certainly when it comes to handicaps – getting them fit is different from placing them, and I suppose some may struggle as the class rises. (looking after a Grade 1 or Group 1 animal, training them etc could be seen as a specialism maybe, something to explore for another day).

But, ultimately class comes down to the quality of animal you have. The Lee’s have demonstrated that if they have a good one, they are capable of winning class 1s (2/16, 8 places), class 2s and Class 5s (12/49, 18 places) and everything in between.

***

FITNESS…

My starting point for fitness is always ‘Horse Runs in 90 Days’…

Criteria Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
0 70 18 25.71 54.25 32 45.71 77.5 66.68 95.26 24.77 1.66
1 94 13 13.83 -35.25 31 32.98 -37.5 -32.28 -34.34 -10.59 0.77
2 112 16 14.29 -21.94 44 39.29 -19.59 -14.97 -13.36 -0.08 0.82
3 58 8 13.79 -15 22 37.93 -25.86 -11.79 -20.33 -5.51 0.93
4 12 6 50 27 8 66.67 225 33.53 279.41 10.61 3.73
5 6 2 33.33 6 4 66.67 100 8.05 134.1 3.59 1.72
6 1 1 100 3.5 1 100 350 3.9 389.5 1.2 4.55

 

As we can see, they clearly have no problem getting them fit at home and that is a micro angle in itself maybe. I will dig into that in a moment. As are their really ‘hard fit’ chasers…

Those that have had 4 or more runs in the previous 3 months are…

19 bets / 9 wins / 13 places/ 47.37% SR / +36.5 SP / +45.47 BFSP / AE 3.01

Those wins coming with 6 different horses. The most recent flag bearer was Jayo time who just kept racing (and winning) at the back end of last year.

Punters may well think, ‘well, they can’t keep winning – look how many runs the poor bugger has had in recent weeks, he must be knackered’ – at times, that is what I would think! Clearly that is an incorrect assumption with this yard.

***

MICRO ANGLE ALERT… (possibly)

So, knowing what we know to date, let’s dive into those handicap chasers, 12/1 or shorter SP, who have been off the track for 90 days or more.

Origin of Horse…nothing on that front, only 8 GB breds have run within this angle. BUT..Going shows some promise.

Those runners, 0 runs in last 90 days, on Good and Good to soft…

35 bets / 6 wins / 12 places / 17% SR / -0.5 SP / +1.24 BFSP / AE 1.14

Clearly they can still get them fit, but as we have seen, theirs do somewhat relish the mud…

RULES…

  1. Handicap Chases
  2. 12/1 or under SP
  3. Horse Runs 90 Days: 0 Only
  4. HEAVY OR SOFT

 

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E  
ALL 35 12 34.29 54.75 20 57.14 156.43 65.45 186.99 22.78 2.15  
2016 1 1 100 8 1 100 800 7.67 766.65 2.16 9.09  
2015 7 3 42.86 13 4 57.14 185.71 14.45 206.41 4.43 2.65  
2014 7 3 42.86 16 5 71.43 228.57 19.56 279.43 5.8 2.14  
2013 10 1 10 -6.75 5 50 -67.5 -6.98 -69.77 5.82 0.75  
2012 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -100 -2 -100 -2 0  
2011 4 2 50 17 3 75 425 21.26 531.4 5.92 5.41  
2010 4 2 50 9.5 2 50 237.5 11.49 287.25 0.66 3.13  

 

Those winners are from 9 different horses.

The ‘race fit’ rules still apply, so we can expand this micro angle. In Horse race base I set the rules to exclude those with 1 or 2 runs in the last 90 days. There are logical reasons why both those running after a break, and those that are hard fit, could be overlooked and under-bet in the market. Also, those horses may well have an advantage over their rivals, esp in testing ground. Those that are hard fit are exactly that and can keep ploughing through the mud. Those that are returning after break are clearly fit, but also fresh. They may also be returning at a time of year when others have also been off the track for a while, but are not as fit.

Hope that all makes sense! Without logic, we are simply back-fitting. We are not doing that here!!…

So…

  1. Handicap Chases
  2. 12/1 or under SP
  3. Horse Runs 90 Days: NOT 1 or 2
  4. HEAVY OR SOFT

 

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E  
ALL 62 19 30.65 73.75 36 58.06 118.95 89.22 143.9 35.73 1.89  
2016 1 1 100 8 1 100 800 7.67 766.65 2.16 9.09  
2015 13 3 23.08 7 7 53.85 53.85 8.45 64.99 5.14 1.31  
2014 16 5 31.25 17.5 9 56.25 109.38 21.08 131.76 4.84 1.69  
2013 17 4 23.53 -0.25 10 58.82 -1.47 -0.21 -1.25 10.75 1.58  
2012 3 0 0 -3 1 33.33 -100 -3 -100 0.38 0  
2011 6 4 66.67 37 5 83.33 616.67 45.75 762.45 11.16 7.27  
2010 6 2 33.33 7.5 3 50 125 9.49 158.17 1.31 2.2  

 

Solid stats indeed.  Kerry has played an increasing role I believe for a few years now, maybe during all of that time. She has trained 4 of those winners, with 4 different horses since 6th November last year.

***

Right, let’s go out back to the start again. Handicap Chases, 12/1<

TIME OF YEAR…

Bugger…why didn’t I look at this in September I hear you say….

Criteria Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
January 34 7 20.59 4 18 52.94 11.76 6.96 20.48 20.41 1.3
February 47 5 10.64 -16 23 48.94 -34.04 -13.58 -28.89 14.21 0.65
March 47 4 8.51 -30.87 12 25.53 -65.68 -29.02 -61.74 -15.58 0.48
April 35 6 17.14 3.5 11 31.43 10 4.63 13.23 -3.51 0.99
May 16 1 6.25 -13 4 25 -81.25 -12.79 -79.92 -7.89 0.34
June 16 1 6.25 -12.25 2 12.5 -76.56 -12.21 -76.29 -9.93 0.42
July 8 1 12.5 5 4 50 62.5 7.01 87.66 2.3 0.89
August 7 2 28.57 2.5 3 42.86 35.71 3.7 52.89 -0.81 1.75
September 5 1 20 -0.5 2 40 -10 -0.11 -2.1 -0.85 1.16
October 32 8 25 24.5 15 46.88 76.56 30.44 95.11 11.91 1.92
November 56 17 30.36 43.5 28 50 77.68 53.03 94.69 20.47 1.82
December 50 11 22 8.18 20 40 16.36 15.04 30.07 -6.75 1.19

 

Now, you can see that they all do well at a certain time of year, I think for obvious reasons. Their horses relish the mud, are likely fitter than most others, are clearly well placed etc.

Now, looking back at the rules of the above micro angle, those running in Oct/Nov/Dec that have had 1 or 2 runs in last 90 days are still not that profitable to follow…13/64, -3.5 points SP. But, clearly, all their ‘fancied’ chasers in those 3 months are worthy of closer scrutiny.

***

RIGHT… I am researching this as I go and probably should have made this into a video – next time – a good idea for a video series maybe. ‘Trainers in Focus’

Anyway, I think I want you to ignore that main micro angle above!

Let’s row back a bit…forgetting  the  going.

If I go back to the FITNESS section above, I could just ignore those that have had 1,2 or 3 runs in the previous 90 days.

That is a much simpler micro angle, and you could forget going…

  1. Handicap Chases, 12/1 or under SP
  2. Horse Runs Last 90 Days: NOT 1,2 or 3

 

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E  
ALL 89 27 30.34 90.75 45 50.56 101.97 112.15 126.02 40.16 1.96  
2016 1 1 100 8 1 100 800 7.67 766.65 2.16 9.09  
2015 17 6 35.29 20.5 9 52.94 120.59 24.6 144.69 6.63 2.15  
2014 16 5 31.25 19.5 9 56.25 121.88 24.11 150.7 8.02 1.79  
2013 18 5 27.78 6.75 10 55.56 37.5 10.24 56.87 10.47 1.96  
2012 8 1 12.5 -2 1 12.5 -25 -2 -25.04 -4.93 0.64  
2011 18 5 27.78 24.5 10 55.56 136.11 30.93 171.82 15.24 2.07  
2010 11 4 36.36 13.5 5 45.45 122.73 16.62 151.06 2.58 2.52  

 

NOW…when I break that set above down by Going…

Criteria Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E
Heavy 9 3 33.33 14.25 4 44.44 158.33 15.36 170.62 4.54 12.00 2.52
Soft 32 11 34.38 51 19 59.38 159.38 62.29 194.65 20.57 13.00 2.06
Good To Soft 23 6 26.09 12.5 11 47.83 54.35 16.89 73.42 12.37 13.00 1.91
Good 24 6 25 10 10 41.67 41.67 13.92 58 2.01 11.00 1.55
Good To Firm 1 1 100 3 1 100 300 3.71 370.5 0.67 4.00 4

 

More winners, the same winning strike rate, and more profit. That will do.

 

October/November/December is still the main time of year to catch them with that angle above…

65 bets / 21 wins / 32 places / 32.31% / +74.25 SP / +90.79 BFSP / AE 2.1

But, they do tick along during the rest of the year. I am looking forward to next Autumn already!

***

MICRO 2

Let’s go back to those IRISH breds. We can just ignore the amount of times a horse has run in 90 days with this one….

  1. Handicap Chases, 12/1 or under SP
  2. IRISH BRED
  3. GOING: NOT Good or Good to Soft

 

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E  
ALL 117 34 29.06 79.31 64 54.7 67.79 95.83 81.9 45.88 1.58  
2016 3 1 33.33 6 2 66.67 200 5.67 188.88 3.63 2.78  
2015 22 5 22.73 5.5 10 45.45 25 6.76 30.73 5.37 1.24  
2014 24 7 29.17 22.25 15 62.5 92.71 27.31 113.78 11.95 1.61  
2013 25 7 28 1.23 15 60 4.92 2.49 9.97 9.67 1.43  
2012 14 3 21.43 1 6 42.86 7.14 3.37 24.1 0.46 0.98  
2011 21 6 28.57 21.83 10 47.62 103.95 25.75 122.6 6.68 1.71  
2010 8 5 62.5 21.5 6 75 268.75 24.48 306.04 8.13 3.52  

 

There is logic for just focussing on the ‘extremes’ – races at the extremes may be less competitive for example – fewer chasers in the race who can handle soft/heavy or good to firm. That is me thinking aloud. The breakdown of the going is below…

Criteria Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
Heavy 38 10 26.32 8.56 20 52.63 22.53 10.83 28.49 11.05 1.42
Soft 60 18 30 51.5 34 56.67 85.83 63.37 105.62 27.2 1.59
Good To Soft 41 6 14.63 -10 12 29.27 -24.39 -6.87 -16.76 -7.27 0.89
Good 49 5 10.2 -19.5 13 26.53 -39.8 -15.1 -30.82 -13.07 0.64
Good To Firm 17 5 29.41 15.75 9 52.94 92.65 18.16 106.84 6.73 1.75
Firm 2 1 50 3.5 1 50 175 3.47 173.25 0.89 2.78

 

I don’t think this is coincidence and there will be an explanation somewhere. Is it an indication of how the Lee’s train and place their horses, knowing what conditions suit them best. The Lee runners, those Irish breds, to date appear to have an advantage when racing on the ‘extremes’. The reasons must be more trainer based than breeding I think, or maybe it is down to the damns?!

As you can see below, with this angle, we can find a way to profit from those having 1,2 or 3 starts in last 90 days…

H-RUN 90 Days Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
0 22 9 40.91 53.5 15 68.18 243.18 62.5 284.08 22.52 2.62
1 27 6 22.22 -3.75 12 44.44 -13.89 -2.23 -8.25 4.5 1.06
2 46 13 28.26 23.56 25 54.35 51.22 28.6 62.17 14.72 1.51
3 16 4 25 2.5 9 56.25 15.63 2.73 17.03 3.54 1.45
4 3 2 66.67 6.5 2 66.67 216.67 7.24 241.22 1.1 3.7
5 3 0 0 -3 1 33.33 -100 -3 -100 -0.49 0

 

***

FINAL RE-CAP…

So, we have two micro systems to go to war with, both worth following, and even more so in months of Oct/Nov/Dec…

Both Handicap Chases, 12/1 or under SP

MICRO 1

  1. Horse Runs Last 90 Days: NOT 1,2 or 3

MICRO 2

  1. IRISH BRED
  2. GOING: NOT Good or Good to Soft

 

Now, of most interest is that between those two micro angles, they have produced 61 winners.

Both systems combined have thrown up the same horses on 28 occasions, 11 have won, for +57 points profit. (used the ‘system merger’ tool in HRB)

I think that means the two combined have found 50 different winners, from the total of 84 handicap chase winners the Lee’s have had since 2010.

***

Right, what started out as a quick bit of research has turned into a rather long article. I hope it is not too heavy. This kind of thing would probably be best in video form, with the micro angles written down at the end!!

***

JOCKEYS…

I should just mention them, as they were the focus of the original comment from one of you!….

2010- Handicap Chases, 12/1 or under..all those with 2 or more winners…

Criteria Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
Moore, Jamie 56 15 26.79 38.75 24 42.86 69.2 43.86 78.33 10.6 1.69
Poste, Charlie 38 8 21.05 21.5 17 44.74 56.58 29.93 78.75 9.36 1.36
Nolan, Mr M G 48 7 14.58 -11.12 24 50 -23.17 -9.37 -19.53 10.85 0.83
Johnson, Richard 34 7 20.59 2.85 12 35.29 8.38 6.1 17.94 -5.81 1.02
Scudamore, Tom 24 6 25 8.25 13 54.17 34.38 11.33 47.19 11.9 1.33
Greenall, Mr Jake 46 6 13.04 -15.25 17 36.96 -33.15 -13.12 -28.51 1.92 0.81
Hawkins, Mr G 19 5 26.32 8.33 9 47.37 43.84 12.47 65.62 3.05 1.81
Gethings, Mr C 9 3 33.33 8.5 6 66.67 94.44 11.15 123.86 5.63 1.71
Farrelly, J W 5 2 40 2.25 2 40 45 2.93 58.56 -1.08 2.35
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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. An admirable bit of work. Josh, on a highly competent yard; I wouldn’t have expected such systems to have been viable with a long established regime but the figures belie my prejudice – and there’s always the hope of a bit more to come as Kerry gets more horses.

  2. I have my own system for Kerry Lee in Hcp. Chases dating from the start of 2015 and is very profitable. I use Proform Professional for all my research and criteria.
    Results to date: 2015 9 runs 4 wins 14.02 points BFSP
    2016 20 runs 15 wins 89.22 points BFSP
    2017 26 runs 12 wins 51.37 points BFSP
    2018 7 runs 2 wins 3.55 points BFSP
    I am a newcomer to the blog and this is my first post. I’m mainly interested in Trainer based systems and have many very profitable ones which I’d be prepared to share, including all the criteria. Latest was a 28/1 winner (20/1 SP) 2 days ago for my Rebecca Bastiman system.

    Chrisalt

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