Members Report: 17/12/15 (complete)

I am posting this at 01.26 after a rather arduous 7 hour journey to Dartmouth from my home near Newmarket. I am here for for a good friend’s ‘passing out’ ceremony (which is from 9am) from the Navy and as such the systems will be the only content tomorrow. I am just about to post up some trends for Saturday and I will be looking at the Ladbroke Hurdle for my Daily Punt blog post. There are what I would call some ‘killer stats’ which will hopefully help highlight the winner- or help you find the winner. There should be some more content up here for Friday’s racing and for Saturday. 

I think the issues with the blog may now finally be resolved but we shall see ( I was unable to post the below earlier before I left) 

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Handy Andy near enough halved in price and like a lot of his recent runs went well for the first circuit before fading. It was worth chancing at the odds but I cant see myself backing him again. Its A Steal touched 5s before drifting back out near the off which turned out to be a negative. He travelled into it well enough and looked promising at one stage before simply plugging on. Whether he needed the run and/or just wasnt good enough to get closer I am not sure. The winner is clearly going places over fences and looks likely to match or better some decent hurdles form. I though he was short enough at 9/2 this morning and that he may be found for jumping experience in a big field, but he was too classy for them. Red Devils Lad looks like he has improved again, taking them on at a decent pace. He will no doubt come on a tad for the run and when going left handed looks like a handicap chaser to keep onside, especially if able to dominate. Rebecca Curtis is starting to fire now, and Pipe/Scudamore are now 5/16, 9 places in handicaps in the last 14 days. Back to form after a dodgy November. 

I am still struggling for a bit of consistency in these 3m+ chases/tips but will continue to work to improve that. Th shortlisting is working well enough in my own mind, but a couple more winners over last few weeks would have been useful. Onwards. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

December Trainers 

2.20 Exet – Delores Delightful (12/1< – guide,has had a ‘big winner’ previously)

Jumps Handicappers 

2.10 Tow – Golan Dancer (14/1<) 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    I have noticed quite frequently the highest priced in a field winning, and given the bigger price available on Betfair I am tempted to place the minimum on all races to see if can create a profit.
    Have you got any stats which show this might be worth pursuing?
    Regards

    1. Hi Michael

      I am not sure if you mean betting the longest price horse in EVERY race each day but if thats the case you will lose a lot of money. Stats for NH racing in 2015 were

      Bets Wins Win% Races P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Lay(BF) ROI(L) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc)
      4305 109 2.53 3616 -1454.65 -33.79 1100.57 0.11 10.29 -584.85

      Now if you layed them all, thats a different matter, unfortunately you have to have a huge bank to cover the occassional 40-1 shot that pays 200.00 at BSP

      The stats for A/W and Flat are similar or even worse…life isn’t that simple unfortunately

  2. Example of the above just happened, Exeter 2.50 Long John, was 11’s generally, longest odds of the field, not sure about Betfair SP but probably higher.

    1. You only notice it when there are a few strung together, when they only win at a 2.5% clip there are dozens of races in between one popping up.

  3. MICHAEL, The horse in question paid 13.5 on betfair SP, That is 12.5/1 and after allowing for 5% comm, it was 19.5% higher than bookmakers odds.

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