Well, that was a rubbish day. Backing everything inc systems was a loss of around 3.5 points (I lost about 5 today) and there were no excuses for any of them that I could see. One of those days. I did think Andrew Thornton and Conor Ring rather set it up for the winner at Warwick – he clearly had plenty in hand and was better than I gave him credit for, despite clouting a few, he was always going to win. But Thornton ‘killed’ Denali Highway most of the way round setting, or repeatedly trying to set, what turned out to be a fierce pace in conditions. A more conservative ride would have helped and I am sure he is not a sulker if not leading. Anyway, the correct mindset is to think about that 3.5 points as being loaned to the bookies, to be paid back with interest another time. I will win on Denali Highway at some point touch wood. The Barr horse may well just be a C5 animal, and while the ground may have been softer than ideal, given the easy lead he got, I wont use that as an excuse.
Well done to those of you who backed the Cumani horse last evening at 25/1 (was 14s, drifted) 40.00BFSP. It was a hollow victory for me – the money was nice – but I hate backing winners that I don’t put up on the blog and am always trying my best to ensure those types end up on here in the Shortlist. I don’t have many bets now that are not up here, but that was one – a last minute dart when I saw the price, having looked at him and ignored him in the morning. But, at the same time, that is also why I put the guides together, so you have a good chance of finding them yourself! 🙂
Russe Blanc – 1 point win – 10/3 (SB/BV) 7/2 (Lad,not BOG until morning)
I do remember tipping/backing him LTO. This could be a right old slog and while I would want a stiffer finish or further ideally, I think this underestimates his chance. I think that was decent form LTO and on what they have done to date over fences recently he is the best in here. Proven in all race conditions and class, hopefully I can get back my 1 point from Newbury with interest. There is one ahead of him in market but I dont know how strong that form is and while he is an ‘unexposed’ 10yo, he has gone up 9lbs in what looks a stronger race. Happy to take him on. Hopefully RB does not become a cliff horse! Oh God, I’ve said it now, sorry!
1.45 Cheltenham Sausalito Sunrise – 1 point win – 4/1 (general)*
NON RUNNER….here is what I did think…(no replacement)
I think 4/1 is just about ok here for a horse that had to catch the eye LTO. That form looks to be the best on show so far and it was a competitive race. Held up and racing wide he made a few niggly errors but had plenty left for the climb up the hill. It is hard not to like his attitude – head bowed – he looks a real trier and he should be going close here. He is young, progressive, all race conditions fine and he will stay.
Stats suggest this race usually goes to the Top 3 in the market and/or those 8/1 or under. I found it hard to make a case for any bigger priced ones in here. The Pipe horse looks a danger and he does have a good record in this race. That was a decent race LTO (although not as good as SS) and he is also going the right way. I just prefer the proven stamina of the selection in a race of this nature although he may well improve for it. Those stepping up by 2f or more from last run don’t have the greatest of records either. Their form looks a bit better than Knock House’s to date, but he is another going the right way.
The Druids Nephew is interesting but I have the suspicion they are plotting their way back to the National with him and would probably like his mark to come down a bit. He is 10lb above his last win but could still be progressive over fences. That run LTO, was just a bit too poor and you would want to see a bit more this season.
Ueueteoti – 1 point win – 7/1 (general)
Ewart is 6/17,9 places with his handicap chasers here (or was when guide was written) and this horse came a decent 2nd here LTO at a big price to improve those stats further. I think he bumped into one there from the Evan Williams yard but a repeat of that run will put him in the mix. He is young, progressive and could well improve for this step up. 7s allows that chance and he also needs to step up into the class – but the fact he is already only 4lb off the highest rated tells you this is not the strongest C3 chase you will find. On paper there is a lot of pace in this race and I hope the jockey does not get into a duel as that will ruin his chance. If she can just track the pace she should be in the right place to pounce over the last few.
Alan King and Sue Smith have a combined 0/61, 16 places record with their handicap chasers here, and while those stats will improve one day, they do not make their two that appealing at this moment in time. Ballyben is interesting but I don’t like breaks around the 48 day region as suggests something may have been up. But, he has a lot of credentials here, and will be trying to improve the trainers 1/23 record at the track to date. Money has been coming for Ikorodu Road but he is a 12yo now and if he wins then congratulations to connections, but I cant back him. The rest have plenty to improve on. Beeves could be one for the future having left McCain and it will be interesting if his new trainer can improve him further- I am guessing as to fitness and he would need to step up on some previous efforts.
That is all for today. Two chasers to go to war with. Good Luck. Signing off 09.26
4.40 Wolv – Mrs Bubbles – (7/1< – a guide)