My Racing Week: 07/12/15 (complete)

Welcome to my weekly round up of results, horses to follow (eye-catchers – mostly 3m+ chasers), a profile horse today, and a micro system to keep an eye on. 

Results (01/12/15 – 06/12/15)

Micro Systems

December Trainers: 8 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / +1 points 

Jumps Handicappers: 4 bets / 1 wins / 2 place / -1 points 

(Also +3 points for the Mick Halford micro system if you followed those two – 1/2, 1 place. ) 

Shortlist 

1 bet / 0 win / 0 place / -1

‘Tips’ 

4 bets / 1 win / 1 place / +4 points 

Big Race Previews

4 bets / 1 win / 1 place / +31 points (if getting 28/1 in HL, 1 point EW)

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So, if betting 1 point on all system selections put up, and following advised tips/big race previews and getting best price available… 

23 bets / 6 wins / 10 places / +37 points

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Not a bad week’s work! Some of you may have slightly better results than that (I know some got 30/1+ Highland Lodge) and some may be a few points less. As always, advertised prices are available with at least two main bookies at around 9.30/10am.(when I post,and up to 10am which is when I say all posts will be finalised by) Those results include Halfords +3 points as well – which was a bonus, so technically +34 if being strict! 

There isn’t too much to say that I havent already. Systems wise – McCain is in form, and I see no reason now not to back his based on concerns over his stable. He has had quite a few winners in recent days across all race types. His two that we have backed so far ran with credit to place, one looking like winning but just being held. Nick Williams has started well enough as well, with two winners at 3/1 and 4/1. 

There were a few close seconds across the board as well. 

So, for systems since Aug 1st where they took a step up… on +84 points (wiped their face this week) 

Tips/BigRP/Shortlist: +38.5 points

(since start October when recording results properly,making SL more focussed etc -albeit was profitable before that,but wasn’t keeping detailed records)

Total: +122.5 points (in around 17 weeks – solid enough!) 

 

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A Profile Chaser…

HORSE VALLEYOFMILAN (8yo) (ALL CHASES)
TRAINER D McCain
POSITIVES 4/11, 5 places LH;  4/11, 5 places C3(<£10k) <; 4/7, 4 places 6/1<; 4/14,5 places 1-7 runners
NEGATIVES 0/5, 0 places RH; 05/0 places C3 (£10k+) +; 0/9, 1 places 13/2+
IDEAL COND. LH; C3 <£10k <; 1-7 runners
FORM IN COND. 4,1,1,1,2
NOTES All wins in career to date with 1-7 runners (5/14) opposed to 0/11, 6 places 8+. Maybe he doesn’t like being crowded, although not yet conclusive. He does appear to be a ‘money horse’ as well. Wins from 20-24f, all wins on Good/Good to Firm to date but not conclusive. Not yet conclusive that he can’t compete at C3 £10k+ and above, (when going LH,1-7 runners,but disappointed couple of times)Arguably still open to some improvement. was his most recent run at Catterick- close second 9/1.

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EYE-CATCHERS 

Ballyheigue Bay – 

An impressive run in the London National from this Chris Gordon horse, who could be the best chaser he has in the yard. This was only his 5th chase start and he led them for most of the way, jumping well (better than at times he had last year) and only giving out after the last, where he made a slight error. The front three pulled clear and he is clearly a class 2 chaser in the making. This was his first run for 273 days as well and that may have told after the last and/or he didn’t quite see out the trip. But, for now I am happy to think he stays this, and if he can get an easy lead over 24f+ he will be dangerous. Tracks like Kempton clearly suit, where he can get away on the front end. He clearly handles a bit of cut. He has wins in him this season and I will be keeping my eye on his next few starts. He could be fairly smart, albeit he may need some time to get over these exertions. 

Count Guido Deiro and Portrait King will also go in my tracker as two backed horses. Something must have been amiss with the former at Sandown but looks like a progressive stayer to keep an eye on. Portrait King would have played a part in finish of Becher were he not to jump into the back of one on landing side. He was outpaced at times and this former Eider winner may still have a chase in him on these shores. 

The Becher…

Having just watched the replay back again it could be argued that the front 5 or 6 should be kept onside in the coming weeks. Highland Lodge looked to quicken I think over the last couple and it looks like he is back. They must be turning their eyes to the Grand National now, and the way he plugged on and went from the front – I couldn’t discount a big run – although I think stats for Becher winners in GN may be poor- we shall see. But, he is just a decent chaser.

Dare to Endeavour – his stats/trends profile wasnt too bad for this race and I did look at him for a time but thought he was just a bit too out of form. But, he relished these fences and bounced right back. Soft is clearly no problem and he looked a tad outpaced at times, having a prominent position, dropping back a bit before staying on – unless that was how he was ridden, jockey thinking they may be going too hard. But, he jumped well and kept plugging on. I am not sure as to his perfect trip but he should be studied closely on future visits to these fences. 

Financial Climate – He ran well for an awful long way here, and did better than I expected. He was up in the van for most of the way and just go beaten and outstayed by better horses. He has yet to win above class 3 but was arguably the run of his life. He only gave out at the Elbow really, where he was nearly wiped out, and could have finished a couple of lengths closer. Highland Lodge is a classier horse and he kept with him for most of the way. This was a run that suggests he is in fine form and his next few starts will be interesting. Cut is ok, but 0/3, 0 places in heavy in handicap chases to date. 4/8, 4 places 1-7 runners, 0/11, 3 places 8+ runners. If he runs in a C3 sometime soon if he can get in, he would be of interest. 

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Silvergrove – This Ben Pauling horse was unlucky at Sandown when a malfunction with stirrups, when looking like the winner. He was going on to beat a fair yardstick there, with a massive gap back to the chasing pack. I doubt he will go under the radar next time but with only 8 chase runs he could be progressive at an ok level, without being a superstar. Anyhorse that can go close at Sandown can clearly jump, and jump at pace. 

Finally to Exeter…

Woodford County is clearly one to take forward now he has his act together over these staying trips. I am not sure how good this form will turn out to be but there are a few long distance chases about just below the highest C2/G3 level. I don’t think his jumping is good enough for higher classes at times, and really stiff fences could cause him problems. But, not many can just grind it out like he can and in the right conditions is he worth a second glance. Nail’M is just intriguing. Well backed, he looked to be outpaced, even over this distance, before plugging on. I don’t know if he is a ‘character’ or what, but he clearly stays well and doesn’t have many miles on the clock. 

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MICRO SYSTEM

Fergal O’Brien.. is a decent trainer of chasers. In fact his record with all chasers (non-handicap,handicap etc) priced 16/1 or shorter is a respectable: 321 bets / 59 wins / 130 places / 18.58% SR / +82 SP / AE 1.04. 

These are solid stats but isn’t something to follow systematically, so I have had a look at how these could be improved. As with all micro systems for a portfolio I want them to be very profitable at SP, to be outperforming market expectations by some way and to have a win strike rate of at least 25%. They are usually my general parameters, as well as some level of consistency and a decent place SR. 

I think I have found an interesting ‘way in’ for his chasers as follows…

  • All Chases/Chasers 
  • 16/1 or shorter SP
  • Horse Wins In Career (under rules in UK): 0 
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E  
ALL 66 18 27.27 83.26 30 45.45 126.15 111.63 169.13 23.25 1.57  
2015 7 3 42.86 26 3 42.86 371.43 36.16 516.52 3.86 4.41  
2014 20 4 20 12.5 7 35 62.5 14.22 71.1 -0.56 1.19  
2013 19 4 21.05 5.5 8 42.11 28.95 8.47 44.55 -0.36 1.08  
2012 12 3 25 9.63 7 58.33 80.25 11.1 92.52 11.82 1.25  
2011 6 2 33.33 12 3 50 200 14.03 233.85 3.35 2.17  
2010 2 2 100 17.63 2 100 881.5 27.65 1382.73 5.14 4.55  

 

This is interesting as I would normally avoid a chaser without a win to their name, esp if they don’t even have a P2P win (although these will be included in stats above – HRB does not track P2P form,or that abroad). But, clearly, Fergal has a knack of getting a chase win, be it in handicaps or non handicaps, with those yet to register a win under rules. These are the kind of horses I suspect most punters would ignore in a chase (I would fall into that category most of the time), wanting to go with those that have some winning experience somewhere. These are solid stats and I will be keeping an eye on them from now on. 

He is currently 0/12, 0 places with those over 16/1 SP under these rules. 

He is best in C3/4 chases. His record in C5 is 4/24, 11 places, -0.87 – 2/18, 6 places in last 3 seasons in C5. So, that is something to keep an eye on. They are clearly not very good animals at this level, albeit if a couple of those placed horses had won the stats would be much improved, and he did have a second at 10/1 from that sample. 

There isn’t much more to say really and no need to slice and dice any further – you start dealing with very small numbers and there really is no need. 

So, in general, all of his chasers are worthy of a second glance when 16/1 or shorter, but by homing in on the angle above we can have more of a stress free ride, with fewer bets and more profit at SP than backing them all. 

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That is it for this week. 

Josh 

p.s as always your comments are welcome, especially any horses you are keeping a track on and don’t mind sharing!

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. Nice start to the day Josh, To anyone thinking of joining the NH Trainer stats, had 2 bets Mussleboro 1 lost and Royal Macnab 12.1 backed it each way just won.

    1. Well done Roy, yep a bit crestfallen when I just checked result – did not study that race or that horse long enough and backed him a few times last season – did they bump him out in front and lead all the way?? has been held up last twice but is best in front, am assuming they did, only one with form in soft as well. Bugger it. But glad you had some!

      1. Hi Josh, He led all the way and quickend up about 2 out. I get at the races and uk racing on my computer here. backed your Lingfield tip as well. Backed The Bishop to win and Silver Shuffle ew and Kalon Brama ew. Will be a bonus if we get another winner.

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